Coastal Carolina
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #183
Pace 69.0 #173
Improvement +1.6 #110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 D+ D B D+ D-
Defense #191 B- C+ F C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.04 #308 -6.9 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #42 0.78 #134 +3.1 #47
Three Pointers 42% #164 0.98 #229 -0.3 #195
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #292 -4.1 #304
Freethrows 0.26 #305 74% #127 0.19 #279
Second Chance 24.1% #335 1.02 #214 0.25 #327
Turnovers 14.2% #52
Total Offense -3.5 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #324 1.06 #68 +5.1 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #7 0.82 #280 -4.6 #362
Three Pointers 37% #292 1.01 #164 +2.4 #97
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #92 +2.9 #84
Freethrows 0.31 #205 72% #157 0.22 #202
Second Chance 27.2% #65 1.06 #212 0.29 #105
Turnovers 11.7% #362
Total Defense -0.7 #191

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #344 -3.5% #9
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #246 -1.7% #152
Possession Length 18.7 #311 16.2 #27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.14 #66
Improvement +4.7 #6 -3.1 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.9% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 14.8
.500 or above 81.3% 92.8% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 95.0% 77.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.6% 5.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 411 - 817 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 273 @Western Michigan L 71 - 76 46% +1  0 - 1 -8 -11 F+ D+ F +3 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 126 Winthrop W 72 - 66 37% +7  1 - 1 +5 -4 B B- F +9 B+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 184 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 74 30% -7  1 - 2 -6 -1 F B+ A- -5 B F F
 Fri, Nov 21 360 @Western Illinois W 84 - 64 78% +13  2 - 2 +8 +3 D+ D C- +4 B+ F+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 290 North Dakota W 75 - 58 62% +10  3 - 2 +10 -8 D+ F A+ +16 A+ B C-
 Sun, Nov 23 88 @Illinois St. L 42 - 94 11% -30  3 - 3 -43 -28 F F B -12 F+ B+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 297 Alabama A&M W 67 - 60 73% +6  4 - 3 -4 -9 F F+ C +6 B A D
 Wed, Dec 3 307 @South Carolina Upstate L 78 - 85 OT 55% +7  4 - 4 -13 -5 D F B- -6 C B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 126 @Winthrop W 88 - 84 19% -1  5 - 4 +9 +17 B C A+ -8 B+ F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 75 @Grand Canyon L 61 - 82 9% -19  5 - 5 -10 -1 C- D- A+ -10 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 200 @Appalachian St. L 49 - 67 33% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -18 -18 F F+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 222 @Old Dominion W 76 - 74 36% +1  6 - 6 1 - 1 +1 +1 D F A+ +1 C C- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 139 @Saint Joseph's W 68 - 62 21% +2  7 - 6 +10 -1 D C C +12 A A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 245 Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 OT 63% -3  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 -4 F C+ B+ -4 B- D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 270 Georgia St. L 71 - 89 68% +1  7 - 8 1 - 3 -27 +2 D A+ D+ -30 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 222 Old Dominion L 66 - 70 59% -7  7 - 9 1 - 4 -11 -8 F F+ C+ -3 C+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 200 Appalachian St. W 67 - 62 55% -5  8 - 9 2 - 4 -1 +7 A D B- -7 A- D F
 Wed, Jan 14 168 @Marshall W 85 - 83 26% +5  9 - 9 3 - 4 +4 +14 A+ D- C- -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 245 @Georgia Southern W 79 - 75 OT 40% -2  10 - 9 4 - 4 +2 -1 F F+ D+ +3 A C F
 Thu, Jan 22 271 Texas St. W 72 - 70 68% +3  11 - 9 5 - 4 -7 -2 F+ D- A -5 A- B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 259 Southern Miss W 85 - 67 66% +12  12 - 9 6 - 4 +10 +13 A+ C+ F -3 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 192 @South Alabama L 66 - 71 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 71 80%
 Wed, Feb 4 156 Arkansas St. L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 171 Massachusetts L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 314 @Louisiana W 67 - 65 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 210 James Madison W 74 - 72 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 Marshall L 75 - 76 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 270 @Georgia St. L 71 - 72 45%
 Fri, Feb 27 210 @James Madison L 71 - 75 34%
Totals 16 - 14 10 - 8 -4 -4 D+ D B -1 B- C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.7 7.9 3.2 0.5 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.1 2.9 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 6.9 6.4 0.2 13.6 4th
5th 1.2 10.5 1.3 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 5.4 5.5 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.6 8.8 1.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.9 5.0 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.2 5.0 1.0 6.2 9th
10th 1.1 2.8 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 0.7 2.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.5 4.1 12.1 21.5 25.8 20.7 11.1 3.6 0.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.9% 0.2    0.0 0.2
13-5 8.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.7% 18.5% 18.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 3.6% 13.6% 13.6% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.1
12-6 11.1% 10.1% 10.1% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 10.0
11-7 20.7% 5.6% 5.6% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 19.5
10-8 25.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 25.3
9-9 21.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 21.3
8-10 12.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-11 4.1% 4.1
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.7 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%