UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.0 #355
Expected Predictive Rating -18.8 #358
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement -0.6 #216

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #359 D- D D D D
Defense #305 D D+ C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #296 1.07 #288 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #46 0.70 #262 +2.9 #56
Three Pointers 37% #254 0.89 #330 -4.2 #318
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #338 -5.4 #327
Freethrows 0.27 #278 68% #304 0.18 #303
Second Chance 27.9% #256 0.87 #354 0.24 #329
Turnovers 18.8% #321
Total Offense -9.4 #359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.29 #327 -5.1 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #217 0.76 #172 +0.4 #160
Three Pointers 38% #259 1.05 #240 +0.7 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -4.0 #307
Freethrows 0.27 #67 69% #48 0.18 #54
Second Chance 36.4% #348 1.02 #135 0.37 #303
Turnovers 16.3% #184
Total Defense -4.5 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 1.0% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.6% #327 6.5% #302
Possession Length 18.0 #247 16.2 #26
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #127 0.21 #314
Improvement -1.2 #245 +0.6 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 67.1% 42.4% 68.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 42 - 143 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 134 @Southern Illinois L 78 - 101 5% -11  0 - 1 -18 +4 F+ B+ B- -21 F F C
 Tue, Nov 11 225 Iona L 91 - 105 24% -9  0 - 2 -21 -0 C C+ F -18 F C- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 33 @Texas L 55 - 71 1% -11  0 - 3 +1 -8 F C- A+ +7 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 45 @TCU L 45 - 81 1% -22  0 - 4 -21 -20 F D F -1 A- F+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 250 @Lindenwood L 67 - 80 13% -6  0 - 5 -15 -10 D F F -4 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 215 @Weber St. L 61 - 82 11% -10  0 - 6 -21 -12 D+ F D- -10 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 228 Idaho St. L 59 - 68 25% -0  0 - 7 -16 -10 D+ D- F -7 B- F B
 Sat, Dec 6 241 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 90 12% -15  0 - 8 -25 -14 F C F -9 B- F C
 Wed, Dec 10 215 Weber St. L 60 - 64 23% -3  0 - 9 -10 -21 F D- F +11 A C- A+
 Tue, Dec 16 54 @Oklahoma L 67 - 89 1% -19  0 - 10 -9 -2 C- C- F -7 B- D D+
 Thu, Dec 18 63 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 91 2% -6  0 - 11 -0 +3 B- D B -2 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 284 @Denver L 74 - 87 18% -12  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 -7 F B- D -10 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 243 @Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 66 13% +2  1 - 12 1 - 1 +5 +1 D+ D- A- +4 C- C- A
 Thu, Jan 8 137 North Dakota St. L 73 - 97 13% -18  1 - 13 1 - 2 -26 +0 A- D- F -26 F B D-
 Sat, Jan 10 290 North Dakota L 79 - 81 37% +2  1 - 14 1 - 3 -12 +5 A+ F F -17 D D F
 Thu, Jan 15 287 @South Dakota L 83 - 99 18% -17  1 - 15 1 - 4 -20 -1 C- F A -18 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 180 @South Dakota St. L 62 - 90 8% -6  1 - 16 1 - 5 -26 -6 F B+ C- -23 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 243 Nebraska Omaha L 60 - 77 27% -8  1 - 17 1 - 6 -25 -20 F+ F F -4 C+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 284 Denver L 61 - 69 36% +0  1 - 18 1 - 7 -18 -20 F F C+ +2 A+ D+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 128 @St. Thomas L 65 - 84 4%
 Wed, Feb 4 287 South Dakota L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 331 @Oral Roberts L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 128 St. Thomas L 68 - 81 12%
 Thu, Feb 19 290 @North Dakota L 70 - 80 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 137 @North Dakota St. L 63 - 81 4%
 Thu, Feb 26 180 South Dakota St. L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 Oral Roberts L 71 - 72 48%
Totals 3 - 24 3 - 13 -14 -9 D- D D -5 D D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.4 2.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 7.8 19.9 12.7 2.8 0.1 43.3 8th
9th 15.3 23.2 9.6 0.9 0.0 49.1 9th
Total 15.3 31.0 29.9 16.3 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9 0.2% 0.2
6-10 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-11 6.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-12 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-13 29.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.9
2-14 31.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 31.0
1-15 15.3% 15.3
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.8%