South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #180
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #243
Pace 70.5 #136
Improvement -2.3 #291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #164 C C C C- C+
Defense #222 C- C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.19 #132 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #211 0.78 #144 -0.5 #206
Three Pointers 40% #193 1.00 #214 -0.7 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #148 +0.8 #148
Freethrows 0.29 #227 69% #295 0.20 #251
Second Chance 30.9% #167 1.02 #213 0.31 #181
Turnovers 16.6% #189
Total Offense -0.1 #164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.21 #259 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #256 0.83 #291 +0.6 #144
Three Pointers 47% #33 1.00 #155 -2.7 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #215 -0.9 #205
Freethrows 0.30 #186 75% #313 0.23 #219
Second Chance 29.1% #120 1.12 #285 0.33 #203
Turnovers 15.9% #215
Total Defense -1.4 #222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #134 0.1% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.8% #159 2.2% #220
Possession Length 17.5 #181 17.1 #147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.16 #157
Improvement +0.5 #154 -2.8 #323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 14.7% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 40.2% 43.7% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 89.7% 66.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.9% 2.7% 4.8%
First Round13.3% 13.8% 10.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 412 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 Merrimack W 75 - 66 55% +2  1 - 0 +6 +2 C+ C- D +4 A- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 114 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 23% -4  1 - 1 -1 -1 B- B F -1 D B+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 79 @Oregon L 69 - 83 14% -5  1 - 2 -4 +1 C+ C- C -4 D+ C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 270 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 76% +28  2 - 2 +38 +28 A+ D B +9 B A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 108 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 30% -10  2 - 3 -19 -18 F D F -1 B- D- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 120 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 34% -7  2 - 4 -9 -18 F F+ D- +9 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 67% +6  3 - 4 +7 -1 F+ C C+ +8 A- C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 188 Idaho L 81 - 84 63% +1  3 - 5 -8 +6 C D- A+ -14 F+ C+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 295 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 62% +0  4 - 5 -1 +1 C+ C- C -1 B D- F+
 Mon, Dec 15 116 Wyoming L 72 - 87 33% -13  4 - 6 -12 +3 C C- A+ -16 F F C+
 Fri, Dec 19 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 62% -1  4 - 7 -6 +13 B+ B B -18 F D- C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  4 - 8 -1 +5 B- A C -2 C D- A
 Thu, Jan 1 243 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 72% +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +7 +7 C A+ C +0 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 290 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 61% -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -7 +11 C B+ B- -18 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 284 Denver W 87 - 79 79% +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -2 +4 D+ B C -6 C+ C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 137 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 28% -8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -1 C+ F B -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 UMKC W 90 - 62 92% +6  7 - 10 3 - 2 +11 +18 A+ C B+ -5 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 128 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 27% +1  7 - 11 3 - 3 -0 -2 C D- C +2 C+ D A
 Wed, Jan 28 243 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 50% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -11 -3 F C- D -8 C D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 331 Oral Roberts W 81 - 69 87%
 Wed, Feb 4 128 St. Thomas L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 South Dakota W 87 - 78 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 284 @Denver W 83 - 80 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 331 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 18 137 North Dakota St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 290 North Dakota W 83 - 74 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 355 @UMKC W 79 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 287 @South Dakota W 84 - 81 61%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 7 -1 +0 C C C -1 C- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.2 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 12.5 20.4 11.8 1.6 48.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.9 11.1 3.6 0.2 24.8 4th
5th 0.5 4.5 5.6 1.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 8.8 17.2 25.0 24.9 15.4 4.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 9.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 4.2% 22.9% 22.9% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 3.2
11-5 15.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.6 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.2 12.1
10-6 24.9% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.2 3.0 0.8 20.8
9-7 25.0% 12.8% 12.8% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.3 21.8
8-8 17.2% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8 15.4
7-9 8.8% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.7 8.1
6-10 3.6% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.2 3.4
5-11 0.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.1 0.7
4-12 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 15.2 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.4 7.8 47.4 40.6 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%