Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#172
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#147
Pace66.0#275
Improvement+0.3#168

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot+3.1#93
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#248
Layup/Dunks-3.8#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#7
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement+1.7#63

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#273
First Shot-5.0#331
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#53
Layups/Dunks-0.9#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#216
Freethrows-1.1#258
Improvement-1.4#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 15.5% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 69.7% 79.6% 57.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 78.0% 67.8%
Conference Champion 19.6% 22.7% 15.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 3.4% 5.9%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round13.4% 15.3% 11.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 155 @Washington St. W 83-81 34%     1 - 0 +5.2 +9.0 -3.8
  Wed, Nov 12 248 @San Diego L 74-78 54%     1 - 1 -5.9 +2.4 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 15 89 @UC San Diego L 67-75 18%     1 - 2 +0.9 -2.6 +3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 221 Cal St. Northridge W 78-64 60%     2 - 2 +10.4 -0.9 +10.7
  Fri, Nov 28 125 Sam Houston St. L 68-94 37%     2 - 3 -23.7 +1.8 -28.1
  Wed, Dec 3 342 North Dakota W 90-58 89%     3 - 3 +17.5 +12.7 +5.1
  Sat, Dec 6 160 @South Dakota St. W 84-81 35%     4 - 3 +6.1 +15.4 -9.2
  Wed, Dec 10 55 @Notre Dame L 65-80 11%     4 - 4 -2.3 +5.8 -9.9
  Sun, Dec 21 250 @Cal Poly W 83-82 55%    
  Tue, Dec 23 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 241 Eastern Washington W 82-75 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 205 Montana W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 174 Montana St. W 73-70 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 163 Idaho St. W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 212 @Weber St. L 75-76 48%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 Sacramento St. W 81-73 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 177 Portland St. W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 154 @Northern Colorado L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 270 @Northern Arizona W 73-71 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 174 @Montana St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 205 @Montana L 77-78 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 212 Weber St. W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 163 Idaho St. W 72-70 57%    
  Thu, Feb 19 177 @Portland St. L 70-73 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 279 @Sacramento St. W 78-76 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 270 Northern Arizona W 76-68 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 154 Northern Colorado W 77-75 57%    
  Mon, Mar 2 241 @Eastern Washington W 79-78 51%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.1 5.3 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.0 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.8 6.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.9 6.9 9.9 12.1 13.1 13.3 11.8 9.8 6.7 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 98.6% 1.9    1.8 0.1
15-3 93.2% 3.7    3.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 78.9% 5.3    3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 51.8% 5.1    2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0
12-6 19.8% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.5 5.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 43.3% 43.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 49.5% 49.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 2.0% 36.3% 36.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.0% 32.4% 32.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.7
14-4 6.7% 28.1% 28.1% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.8
13-5 9.8% 23.2% 23.2% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 7.5
12-6 11.8% 17.1% 17.1% 14.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 9.7
11-7 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 11.5
10-8 13.1% 10.8% 10.8% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 11.7
9-9 12.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 11.2
8-10 9.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.2 0.3 9.4
7-11 6.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
6-12 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 2.7
4-14 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.6 4.1 1.3 86.4 0.0%