Idaho
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #188
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #177
Pace 66.2 #254
Improvement -0.7 #222

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #163 C C- C+ C C
Defense #235 C- B D+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.11 #238 -3.4 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #269 0.70 #274 -2.1 #282
Three Pointers 50% #29 1.07 #107 +5.8 #25
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #168 +0.2 #166
Freethrows 0.31 #159 73% #173 0.23 #153
Second Chance 29.0% #226 1.02 #208 0.30 #222
Turnovers 15.6% #120
Total Offense -0.1 #163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #216 1.19 #221 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #42 0.85 #313 -3.3 #355
Three Pointers 36% #306 1.03 #208 +2.2 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #216 -1.2 #217
Freethrows 0.32 #260 74% #287 0.24 #280
Second Chance 26.4% #50 1.00 #116 0.26 #57
Turnovers 14.8% #284
Total Defense -1.8 #235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #160 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #176 3.9% #258
Possession Length 17.9 #231 17.6 #214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #277 0.17 #173
Improvement -1.4 #256 +0.7 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 13.1% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 67.8% 82.8% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 89.4% 67.7%
Conference Champion 2.6% 4.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round10.7% 13.0% 9.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Away) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 9
Quad 410 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 131 @Washington St. W 83 - 81 26% +9  1 - 0 +7 +9 A- D+ C- -2 A- B F
 Wed, Nov 12 208 @San Diego L 74 - 78 42% -5  1 - 1 -4 +4 C D F -8 F C B
 Sat, Nov 15 112 @UC San Diego L 67 - 75 21% +3  1 - 2 -2 -2 D C- C +1 C A- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 217 Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 64 56% +4  2 - 2 +11 -0 F A C- +10 A+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 115 Sam Houston St. L 68 - 94 31% -4  2 - 3 -23 +3 B- C- A- -28 F F F
 Wed, Dec 3 290 North Dakota W 90 - 58 79% +15  3 - 3 +22 +11 A- B+ C +11 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 180 @South Dakota St. W 84 - 81 37% -1  4 - 3 +5 +13 B+ D+ B+ -8 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 81 @Notre Dame L 65 - 80 13% -5  4 - 4 -5 +5 B D- A -12 D- C D+
 Sun, Dec 21 289 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 OT 60% +7  5 - 4 -1 -5 D D+ D +3 A- A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 23 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 63 - 64 63% -2  5 - 5 -6 -7 F F+ C +1 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 241 Eastern Washington W 84 - 81 70% +2  6 - 5 1 - 0 -4 +7 B- B D+ -11 B+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 161 Montana L 73 - 79 54% -9  6 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -1 F B A- -8 C- B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 155 Montana St. W 92 - 89 53% -9  7 - 6 2 - 1 +0 +20 A+ F A+ -19 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 228 @Idaho St. L 68 - 76 46% +2  7 - 7 2 - 2 -9 -4 F A- B- -5 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 215 @Weber St. W 75 - 67 44% +9  8 - 7 3 - 2 +8 -6 D C F +13 A+ D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 294 Sacramento St. W 86 - 76 79% +7  9 - 7 4 - 2 -1 +5 A- F+ C- -6 B- D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 148 Portland St. L 66 - 69 52% -5  9 - 8 4 - 3 -5 -1 C+ D- D+ -4 F A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 197 @Northern Colorado L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 313 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 70 64%
 Thu, Feb 5 155 @Montana St. L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 161 @Montana L 72 - 77 32%
 Thu, Feb 12 215 Weber St. W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 228 Idaho St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 148 @Portland St. L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 294 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 76 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 313 Northern Arizona W 77 - 67 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 197 Northern Colorado W 78 - 75 62%
 Mon, Mar 2 241 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 76 48%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 8 -2 +0 C C- C+ -2 C- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 8.3 6.0 1.0 0.0 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.5 13.2 7.7 1.5 0.0 29.7 4th
5th 0.3 4.7 9.4 4.2 0.4 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 6.1 2.8 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.7 6.6 13.6 19.2 21.0 17.8 11.9 4.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 94.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 59.2% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 22.8% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 39.2% 39.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.5% 27.7% 27.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1
13-5 4.8% 20.5% 20.5% 13.9 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.8
12-6 11.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0 9.9
11-7 17.8% 13.4% 13.4% 14.4 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 15.4
10-8 21.0% 11.0% 11.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.2 18.7
9-9 19.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.4 17.5
8-10 13.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 12.9
7-11 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-13 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 14.6 89.2 0.0%