Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.0 #16
Expected Predictive Rating +17.3 #19
Pace 82.3 #2
Improvement -2.0 #279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #3 A- B+ A B- B
Defense #47 A- B D+ B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.31 #39 +1.7 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #350 1.11 #1 -2.5 #300
Three Pointers 54% #8 1.07 #97 +8.1 #10
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #21 +7.3 #20
Freethrows 0.33 #109 76% #62 0.25 #80
Second Chance 35.2% #56 1.16 #52 0.41 #40
Turnovers 11.7% #2
Total Offense +12.5 #3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 0.95 #10 +5.8 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.73 #132 -2.5 #340
Three Pointers 37% #287 0.93 #71 +3.7 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #15 +7.0 #16
Freethrows 0.29 #140 66% #7 0.19 #67
Second Chance 28.3% #95 0.92 #39 0.26 #50
Turnovers 15.0% #268
Total Defense +5.5 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #32 -2.4% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.4% #29 -11.5% #26
Possession Length 14.2 #3 18.0 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.13 #56
Improvement -3.1 #339 +1.1 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.6% 3.7% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 8.1% 15.8% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 46.8% 64.4% 40.0%
Top 6 Seed 84.8% 93.9% 81.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.9% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.8% 98.9%
Average Seed 4.8 4.0 5.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 98.5% 94.0%
Conference Champion 15.7% 34.2% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round98.9% 99.8% 98.5%
Second Round84.9% 90.4% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen45.6% 53.1% 42.7%
Elite Eight19.5% 25.2% 17.4%
Final Four8.7% 12.1% 7.4%
Championship Game3.5% 4.8% 3.0%
National Champion1.4% 2.1% 1.1%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 310 - 10
Quad 26 - 116 - 11
Quad 35 - 021 - 11
Quad 42 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 290 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  1 - 0 +19 +6 B- F+ C +11 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 18 @St. John's W 103 - 96 41% +5  2 - 0 +27 +22 A- A- A+ +4 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 13 8 Purdue L 80 - 87 52% -2  2 - 1 +10 +14 A- D A+ -4 B+ C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 6 Illinois W 90 - 86 39% +1  3 - 1 +25 +14 A+ A+ C- +10 A- A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 11 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 44% -1  3 - 2 +10 +14 A+ C+ B+ -4 A F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 125 UNLV W 115 - 76 92% +16  4 - 2 +41 +30 A+ A B+ +7 B+ A D-
 Wed, Nov 26 106 Maryland W 105 - 72 89% +20  5 - 2 +37 +26 A+ A+ C+ +9 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 32 Clemson W 90 - 84 74% +9  6 - 2 +17 +22 A+ A A+ -5 B- A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 7 341 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  7 - 2 +27 +8 D- B- A+ +15 B A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 27% -7  7 - 3 +3 +8 A+ F D+ -3 B A F
 Wed, Dec 17 67 South Florida W 104 - 93 88% +8  8 - 3 +16 +21 B+ A+ B- -6 B+ F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 153 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 94% +18  9 - 3 +11 +8 C- C+ A+ +2 B F+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 71 Yale W 102 - 78 89% +19  10 - 3 +29 +29 B+ A+ A+ -0 A+ D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 27 Kentucky W 89 - 74 71% +11  11 - 3 1 - 0 +27 +20 A+ B+ B+ +7 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 12 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 35% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +13 D A+ A- +4 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Texas L 88 - 92 75% -5  11 - 5 1 - 2 +7 +15 B+ B- A+ -7 B C F+
 Tue, Jan 13 73 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 76% +5  12 - 5 2 - 2 +26 +22 A- B+ A+ +3 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 68% -2  13 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +9 C+ B- B- +6 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 20 Tennessee L 73 - 79 64% +1  13 - 6 3 - 3 +8 +11 C+ A- A+ -3 C A+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 56 Missouri W 90 - 64 85% +12  14 - 6 4 - 3 +33 +14 B C A+ +17 A+ C+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 5 @Florida L 84 - 90 28%
 Tue, Feb 3 30 Texas A&M W 94 - 88 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @Auburn L 88 - 89 49%
 Wed, Feb 11 64 @Mississippi W 84 - 78 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 90 South Carolina W 89 - 74 92%
 Tue, Feb 17 21 Arkansas W 95 - 91 65%
 Wed, Feb 18 21 Arkansas W 95 - 91 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 47 @LSU W 88 - 84 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 73 Mississippi St. W 91 - 78 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 20 @Tennessee L 81 - 83 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 29 @Georgia W 95 - 94 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 Auburn W 91 - 86 69%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +18 +13 A- B+ A +6 A- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.5 7.0 3.4 0.5 15.7 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 8.3 2.8 0.1 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.9 4.3 0.2 14.7 3rd
4th 0.2 5.3 6.6 0.6 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 8.0 1.8 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.3 5.0 4.1 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 5.3 0.7 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.0 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 2.2 0.3 3.7 9th
10th 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 8.1 14.7 19.5 21.2 17.6 10.0 3.5 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-3 96.6% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
14-4 69.9% 7.0    2.8 3.2 1.0 0.1
13-5 25.5% 4.5    0.5 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 6.6 5.3 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.3 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.0% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 3.0 0.5 2.4 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.6% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.6 0.2 1.8 6.4 6.3 2.6 0.3 100.0%
12-6 21.2% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 4.3 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.3 7.3 2.2 0.2 100.0%
11-7 19.5% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 5.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 8.0 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.7% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 5.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 8.1% 99.3% 5.0% 94.3% 7.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
8-10 3.5% 94.3% 2.9% 91.4% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 94.1%
7-11 1.0% 68.4% 0.5% 67.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 68.3%
6-12 0.2% 31.7% 4.9% 26.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 13.1% 86.1% 4.8 0.8 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 76.2 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 38.1 61.9