St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #115
Pace 70.1 #145
Improvement +1.7 #103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #125 B+ F+ C+ C B+
Defense #157 C D+ B- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #84 1.35 #18 +6.1 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.59 #352 -4.9 #359
Three Pointers 48% #43 1.08 #89 +5.2 #37
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #32 +6.4 #31
Freethrows 0.30 #185 71% #232 0.21 #195
Second Chance 19.5% #364 0.99 #255 0.19 #361
Turnovers 15.3% #113
Total Offense +1.7 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.23 #279 -3.2 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #270 0.67 #46 +1.9 #53
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.99 #147 +0.6 #150
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #200 -0.7 #200
Freethrows 0.27 #94 75% #317 0.21 #136
Second Chance 29.5% #134 1.23 #347 0.36 #285
Turnovers 18.1% #75
Total Defense +0.2 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #16 1.1% #274
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.9% #56 0.3% #188
Possession Length 17.1 #146 17.1 #145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #170 0.14 #91
Improvement +1.6 #99 +0.1 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 37.2% 29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 44.8% 47.7% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round36.2% 37.2% 29.8%
Second Round1.8% 1.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 419 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 12% -11  0 - 1 -11 -3 A F C -10 F+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 335 Army W 83 - 76 92% +11  1 - 1 -7 +3 C- C B+ -10 D- C C-
 Mon, Nov 10 131 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 39% -15  1 - 2 -5 +0 C+ F B- -6 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 244 Green Bay W 80 - 61 82% +19  2 - 2 +11 -0 B+ F C +11 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 15 246 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 64% +13  3 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F+ +4 C+ D+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 197 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 66% -5  4 - 2 -1 -6 D C D- +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 216 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 69% +1  4 - 3 -11 -1 F+ D A+ -10 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 23 218 @Portland W 76 - 66 59% +5  5 - 3 +10 +2 C+ D+ A- +7 C- F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 155 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 45% -1  5 - 4 -5 +5 A+ F F -10 C D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 215 Weber St. W 88 - 65 78% +18  6 - 4 +17 +10 A+ C+ B- +6 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 204 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 57% +13  7 - 4 +21 +12 A- D B +11 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 292 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  8 - 4 +4 +16 A+ D A+ -12 D C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 284 Denver W 92 - 88 87% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +7 C D+ B+ -13 D+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 287 South Dakota W 99 - 86 87% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +14 A+ F+ B+ -12 F D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 331 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 82% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +3 +11 C+ F A+ -7 D C F
 Thu, Jan 15 290 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 73% +5  12 - 4 4 - 0 +7 +11 A+ F+ C -5 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 137 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 40% -3  12 - 5 4 - 1 +1 -6 C F D- +7 B- A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 180 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 73% -1  13 - 5 5 - 1 +1 -1 B- D F +2 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 287 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 73% +2  14 - 5 6 - 1 +8 +14 A- D- C -6 C+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 290 North Dakota W 84 - 72 87%
 Sun, Feb 1 355 UMKC W 84 - 65 96%
 Wed, Feb 4 180 @South Dakota St. W 78 - 77 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Oral Roberts W 83 - 67 93%
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 74 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 355 @UMKC W 81 - 68 88%
 Sat, Feb 21 284 @Denver W 85 - 79 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 137 North Dakota St. W 76 - 73 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 71 81%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 +2 B+ F+ C+ +0 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.8 11.6 19.7 10.5 44.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 8.2 18.0 17.9 6.1 51.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.5 20.8 29.5 25.8 10.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 10.5    8.9 1.6
14-2 76.3% 19.7    11.3 8.4
13-3 39.3% 11.6    4.5 7.0 0.1
12-4 13.4% 2.8    0.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 44.8% 44.8 25.3 18.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 10.5% 49.1% 49.1% 12.5 0.2 2.5 2.2 0.2 5.3
14-2 25.8% 42.0% 42.0% 13.3 1.0 6.2 3.4 0.2 15.0
13-3 29.5% 36.0% 36.0% 13.7 0.3 3.7 5.7 1.0 18.9
12-4 20.8% 31.0% 31.0% 14.0 0.0 1.4 3.8 1.2 14.4
11-5 9.5% 24.9% 24.9% 14.3 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 7.1
10-6 3.0% 20.8% 20.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.4
9-7 0.7% 19.6% 19.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
8-8 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 13.5 63.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 12.5 3.1 49.4 42.8 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%