Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.2 #33
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 #54
Pace 68.2 #201
Improvement +2.8 #65

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #8 B+ A B+ A C+
Defense #100 B- A- D+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.35 #19 +4.8 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #205 0.90 #37 +0.8 #138
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.03 #175 +0.1 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #43 +5.7 #45
Freethrows 0.40 #4 74% #120 0.29 #4
Second Chance 39.2% #10 1.20 #31 0.47 #7
Turnovers 13.8% #38
Total Offense +11.4 #8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #192 1.04 #52 +2.2 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #30 0.65 #29 -0.9 #259
Three Pointers 34% #341 1.13 #317 +1.5 #124
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #88 +2.8 #87
Freethrows 0.33 #271 72% #151 0.24 #260
Second Chance 24.7% #21 0.90 #30 0.22 #10
Turnovers 14.9% #278
Total Defense +2.7 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #150 -1.6% #57
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.4% #38 -3.8% #107
Possession Length 17.1 #142 18.4 #316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #13 0.12 #30
Improvement +2.8 #47 +0.0 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.1% 11.9% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.5% 73.4% 47.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.6% 72.7% 47.0%
Average Seed 8.6 8.3 9.1
.500 or above 84.3% 92.5% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.2% 66.9% 35.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.1% 1.9%
First Four12.4% 11.7% 13.3%
First Round56.5% 68.5% 42.8%
Second Round30.8% 38.4% 22.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.8% 11.5% 5.7%
Elite Eight3.2% 4.1% 2.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 23 - 39 - 14
Quad 31 - 110 - 14
Quad 47 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 19% -5  0 - 1 +9 +2 D- A D- +6 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 316 Lafayette W 97 - 60 98% +18  1 - 1 +25 +20 C+ A+ C+ +5 B+ D+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  2 - 1 +20 +8 C+ B B +10 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 355 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  3 - 1 -1 +0 F C A+ +1 A- B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 352 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  4 - 1 +18 +13 A+ F A +2 C+ A D+
 Mon, Nov 24 77 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 74% +2  4 - 2 +7 +9 A A+ F -3 C- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 24 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 43% +4  5 - 2 +21 +33 A+ A+ A+ -12 C+ F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 22 Virginia L 69 - 88 52% -6  5 - 3 -5 +6 C A A -13 C A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 260 Southern W 95 - 69 97% +17  6 - 3 +18 +18 A- A+ C -1 D A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 10 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 20% -6  6 - 4 +15 +6 C- A C+ +8 D+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 16 275 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  7 - 4 +33 +12 B A+ D- +19 A+ A- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 332 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  8 - 4 +9 +16 A+ D B+ -7 D C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 73 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 81% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +2 +14 B+ A B- -11 C F+ D+
 Tue, Jan 6 20 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 28% -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +6 +11 C+ A+ F -6 D- C B
 Sat, Jan 10 16 @Alabama W 92 - 88 25% +5  9 - 6 1 - 2 +25 +24 A- A+ A+ +1 B- A D+
 Wed, Jan 14 12 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 43% +6  10 - 6 2 - 2 +32 +19 A+ A+ D- +14 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 30 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 60% -3  10 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +11 C D A+ -4 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 27 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 35% -3  10 - 8 2 - 4 +13 +17 C A+ A+ -4 B- A- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 29 Georgia W 87 - 67 59% +3  11 - 8 3 - 4 +32 +24 A+ A+ C +9 A B A+
 Wed, Jan 28 25 @Auburn L 82 - 88 33% +3  11 - 9 3 - 5 +13 +23 A+ C C+ -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 54 @Oklahoma W 81 - 80 54%
 Tue, Feb 3 90 South Carolina W 81 - 70 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Mississippi W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 56 @Missouri W 79 - 78 54%
 Tue, Feb 17 47 LSU W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 29 @Georgia L 85 - 89 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 5 Florida L 78 - 82 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 30 @Texas A&M L 82 - 85 39%
 Wed, Mar 4 21 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 28%
 Sat, Mar 7 54 Oklahoma W 84 - 77 74%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +14 +11 B+ A B+ +3 B- A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.3 0.3 4.9 5th
6th 0.5 4.9 2.3 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 6.8 0.5 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 8.6 3.5 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.5 6.3 7.9 0.6 15.3 9th
10th 0.1 3.8 9.7 2.6 0.1 16.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.7 4.4 0.2 12.6 11th
12th 0.2 3.1 3.5 0.3 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.5 7.5 15.0 22.4 23.5 17.3 8.5 2.6 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.4% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.6% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.5% 99.3% 4.7% 94.6% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-8 17.3% 96.2% 3.4% 92.9% 7.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.7 96.1%
9-9 23.5% 86.5% 2.2% 84.3% 9.3 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 5.2 6.4 3.5 0.0 3.2 86.2%
8-10 22.4% 50.4% 1.0% 49.4% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.6 6.6 0.3 11.1 49.9%
7-11 15.0% 12.0% 0.8% 11.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.1 13.2 11.3%
6-12 7.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 11.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.9%
5-13 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.5% 2.1% 59.4% 8.6 38.5 60.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 4.3 30.4 60.9 4.3