Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #134
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #175
Pace 72.4 #85
Improvement +1.5 #114

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 C C C C D+
Defense #69 B- C+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.18 #149 +3.0 #81
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #24 0.95 #13 +6.6 #3
Three Pointers 27% #364 0.83 #358 -9.8 #361
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 -0.2 #181
Freethrows 0.32 #123 66% #344 0.21 #204
Second Chance 30.2% #201 1.08 #132 0.32 #159
Turnovers 16.3% #172
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.13 #143 +1.8 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #153 0.81 #277 -0.8 #246
Three Pointers 42% #135 0.91 #48 +1.7 #117
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #94 +2.6 #93
Freethrows 0.29 #136 71% #100 0.20 #116
Second Chance 28.5% #104 1.05 #194 0.30 #126
Turnovers 17.7% #91
Total Defense +4.1 #69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #303 -0.5% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #151 -4.6% #91
Possession Length 16.1 #58 17.5 #200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.15 #124
Improvement -3.7 #346 +5.2 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.9% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 19.2% 26.1% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 14.0% 19.9% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 0.9% 3.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.3% 3.9% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 73 - 8
Quad 34 - 87 - 16
Quad 47 - 114 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 355 UMKC W 101 - 78 95% +11  1 - 0 +6 +14 A+ A- C+ -10 B F D
 Wed, Nov 12 74 @Nevada L 81 - 86 OT 19% +1  1 - 1 +6 +4 C F+ A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 137 @North Dakota St. L 85 - 92 39% -4  1 - 2 -3 +5 B+ C D+ -7 D- D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 278 Delaware W 79 - 59 79% +10  2 - 2 +13 +6 D+ A- C +8 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 118 UAB L 73 - 81 46% -5  2 - 3 -5 +1 C- D A+ -6 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 100 @Memphis L 58 - 74 27% -11  2 - 4 -8 -7 F B- B- -1 C+ D B
 Sat, Nov 29 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 74 - 65 86% +1  3 - 4 -1 +3 A- D F -3 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 96 @High Point W 86 - 84 25% -3  4 - 4 +11 +9 C- A+ B+ +1 B B- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 231 Tennessee Martin W 83 - 54 79% +15  5 - 4 +22 +10 A+ C D- +13 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 117 @Richmond L 84 - 93 OT 34% -2  5 - 5 -3 -3 D B F +2 D A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 88 Illinois St. L 68 - 75 43% +0  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -2 B- B+ F -1 C+ F+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 127 @Bradley L 69 - 73 37% -4  5 - 7 0 - 2 +1 -3 D- C B- +4 B- D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 103 @Murray St. L 81 - 84 28% -7  5 - 8 0 - 3 +5 +4 D+ A+ D+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 167 Valparaiso W 75 - 70 69% +5  6 - 8 1 - 3 +1 -3 D C A+ +4 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 78 @Belmont W 68 - 67 20% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 +11 -1 B- C- F +12 C A A+
 Wed, Jan 7 138 @Illinois-Chicago L 57 - 70 40% -8  7 - 9 2 - 4 -9 -8 B- F D- -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 152 Drake L 73 - 76 OT 66% +4  7 - 10 2 - 5 -6 -9 F D A +4 A+ F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 78 Belmont L 68 - 73 39% -2  7 - 11 2 - 6 -1 -3 D D C+ +3 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 69 47% -11  7 - 12 2 - 7 -4 -1 D C- C -3 F+ B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 114 Northern Iowa W 65 - 50 55% +6  8 - 12 3 - 7 +15 +2 A F B- +15 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 138 Illinois-Chicago W 72 - 69 62%
 Tue, Feb 3 88 @Illinois St. L 66 - 74 23%
 Fri, Feb 6 103 Murray St. L 80 - 81 50%
 Mon, Feb 9 196 @Indiana St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 267 Evansville W 76 - 65 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 127 Bradley W 75 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 152 @Drake L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Northern Iowa L 60 - 65 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 196 Indiana St. W 78 - 71 74%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 11 +2 -2 C C C +4 B- C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 3rd
4th 0.4 1.4 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 1.3 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 4.6 0.4 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 9.7 1.9 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.5 12.9 5.7 0.3 25.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 8.3 14.4 7.9 0.7 32.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.2 1.3 5.3 13.2 21.5 24.6 19.9 10.1 3.5 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 15.9% 15.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
11-9 3.5% 10.5% 10.5% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2
10-10 10.1% 6.2% 6.2% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.5
9-11 19.9% 3.5% 3.5% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 19.2
8-12 24.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.2 0.6 0.0 23.8
7-13 21.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.3 0.3 20.9
6-14 13.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.0
5-15 5.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.3
4-16 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.9 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%