Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#160
Pace72.6#97
Improvement+1.2#103

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#152
First Shot+0.3#162
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#156
Layup/Dunks+5.4#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.7#365
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#122
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#69
Layups/Dunks+5.0#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#305
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement+2.5#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.8% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 56.3% 69.0% 45.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 72.4% 48.6%
Conference Champion 5.9% 9.8% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.5% 5.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.2% 7.8% 4.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 72 - 8
Quad 35 - 68 - 14
Quad 48 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 346 UMKC W 101-78 93%     1 - 0 +8.1 +15.9 -9.6
  Wed, Nov 12 98 @Nevada L 81-86 OT 28%     1 - 1 +3.0 +2.4 +1.1
  Mon, Nov 17 146 @North Dakota St. L 85-92 42%     1 - 2 -3.1 +6.2 -8.6
  Sun, Nov 23 282 Delaware W 79-59 79%     2 - 2 +13.5 +5.6 +8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 119 UAB L 73-81 45%     2 - 3 -4.8 +0.5 -5.3
  Wed, Nov 26 75 @Memphis L 58-74 20%     2 - 4 -5.3 -8.7 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 29 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 74-65 90%     3 - 4 -3.0 +2.5 -4.6
  Wed, Dec 3 105 @High Point W 86-84 31%     4 - 4 +9.0 +8.9 +0.0
  Wed, Dec 10 252 Tennessee Martin W 83-54 83%     5 - 4 +20.9 +8.1 +12.9
  Sat, Dec 13 102 @Richmond L 84-93 OT 29%     5 - 5 -1.3 -1.7 +2.2
  Thu, Dec 18 90 Illinois St. L 74-75 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 116 @Bradley L 71-75 34%    
  Mon, Dec 29 99 @Murray St. L 79-85 29%    
  Thu, Jan 1 213 Valparaiso W 76-68 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 85 @Belmont L 75-83 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 189 @Illinois-Chicago W 76-75 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 136 Drake W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 85 Belmont L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Jan 21 213 @Valparaiso W 73-71 58%    
  Sun, Jan 25 275 @Evansville W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 93 Northern Iowa L 66-67 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 189 Illinois-Chicago W 79-72 72%    
  Tue, Feb 3 90 @Illinois St. L 71-78 27%    
  Fri, Feb 6 99 Murray St. W 83-82 50%    
  Mon, Feb 9 181 @Indiana St. W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Feb 12 275 Evansville W 78-67 83%    
  Sun, Feb 15 116 Bradley W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 136 @Drake L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 93 @Northern Iowa L 63-70 28%    
  Wed, Feb 25 181 Indiana St. W 79-73 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.1 7.6 10.4 12.0 13.2 12.9 11.6 9.0 6.3 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 94.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 78.3% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 49.5% 1.8    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
13-7 3.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.3% 30.5% 29.5% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5%
17-3 0.8% 26.0% 26.0% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.0% 22.1% 22.1% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5
15-5 3.7% 17.8% 17.8% 12.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0
14-6 6.3% 14.2% 14.2% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.4
13-7 9.0% 10.9% 10.9% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 8.0
12-8 11.6% 8.8% 8.8% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.5
11-9 12.9% 5.9% 5.9% 13.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.1
10-10 13.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-11 12.0% 2.3% 2.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.7
8-12 10.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.1 0.1 10.2
7-13 7.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.5
6-14 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 93.7 0.0%