Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 #228
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 #228
Pace 63.7 #315
Improvement -5.6 #355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #165 C+ C C- C+ B-
Defense #285 C- C D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.09 #262 -2.0 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #305 0.89 #38 -1.4 #250
Three Pointers 48% #39 1.09 #77 +5.6 #29
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #119 +2.2 #118
Freethrows 0.32 #134 73% #154 0.23 #132
Second Chance 33.3% #103 0.96 #295 0.32 #167
Turnovers 17.2% #236
Total Offense -0.1 #165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #105 1.20 #236 -2.6 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #227 1.00 #365 -1.6 #300
Three Pointers 40% #223 0.94 #81 +2.3 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #249 -1.9 #248
Freethrows 0.33 #263 76% #336 0.25 #294
Second Chance 31.1% #204 1.06 #203 0.33 #214
Turnovers 15.1% #264
Total Defense -3.7 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #91 0.9% #251
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.9% #130 2.9% #236
Possession Length 20.0 #361 17.0 #124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #343 0.19 #241
Improvement -2.6 #316 -3.0 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.2% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 12.0% 21.5% 6.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 51.7% 22.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.6% 6.5%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.0%
First Round4.2% 5.7% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 410 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 208 @San Diego W 71 - 68 35% +7  1 - 0 +3 +5 C D+ A- -2 C B C-
 Sun, Nov 9 41 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 5% -11  1 - 1 -1 +1 B+ C- F -4 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 124 @Seattle L 74 - 83 20% -9  1 - 2 -4 +19 B A+ C+ -24 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 50 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 6% -5  1 - 3 +5 -7 C F F +11 A+ B+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 115 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 25% -1  1 - 4 +0 +7 A F F -6 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 217 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 48% +18  2 - 4 +29 +1 C+ A F+ +25 A+ B- B+
 Wed, Dec 3 355 @UMKC W 68 - 59 75% +0  3 - 4 -2 +3 D B F+ -3 D C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 284 Denver W 93 - 79 73% +6  4 - 4 +4 +13 B+ C+ A- -9 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 108 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 16% +1  4 - 5 +3 +2 B- F C +1 C C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 181 UC Davis L 83 - 93 53% -8  4 - 6 -15 +13 A+ C+ C -28 F D F
 Thu, Jan 1 294 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 74% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +6 A- D B -5 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 148 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 44% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +12 A+ C- A -20 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 197 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 33% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -12 +3 D+ C D -17 F B F
 Sat, Jan 10 313 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 58% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +11 A- A- F -15 C F C
 Thu, Jan 15 188 Idaho W 76 - 68 54% -2  7 - 8 3 - 2 +3 +4 B+ F C+ -0 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 241 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 64% -15  7 - 9 3 - 3 -25 -10 F C+ A+ -16 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 155 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 25% -5  7 - 10 3 - 4 -9 -2 C- B C -8 C F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 161 @Montana L 60 - 69 26% -8  7 - 11 3 - 5 -6 -8 F+ C+ F +2 C A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 215 @Weber St. L 74 - 77 37%
 Mon, Feb 2 148 @Portland St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Thu, Feb 5 313 Northern Arizona W 75 - 67 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 197 Northern Colorado W 77 - 75 56%
 Thu, Feb 12 241 @Eastern Washington L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 188 @Idaho L 70 - 75 32%
 Thu, Feb 19 161 Montana L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 155 Montana St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 215 Weber St. W 77 - 74 59%
 Mon, Mar 2 294 @Sacramento St. W 78 - 77 53%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 10 -4 +0 C+ C C- -4 C- C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.3 5.6 1.5 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.5 5.8 9.0 2.9 0.1 18.3 5th
6th 0.4 5.3 10.2 3.6 0.2 19.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 4.7 10.9 4.7 0.3 20.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 7.5 3.9 0.3 14.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.3 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.4 2.1 7.2 14.9 20.8 21.5 17.5 10.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 32.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 32.0% 32.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.1% 15.6% 15.6% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
11-7 4.1% 9.7% 9.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.7
10-8 10.4% 8.8% 8.8% 15.1 0.0 0.8 0.1 9.4
9-9 17.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 16.2
8-10 21.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1 20.3
7-11 20.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 20.2
6-12 14.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 14.6
5-13 7.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 7.1
4-14 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.5 95.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%