Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#167
Pace62.7#336
Improvement+2.5#43

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#174
First Shot+0.7#154
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#242
Layup/Dunks-1.9#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#37
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+1.0#98

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot+0.2#164
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#103
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+1.5#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 17.6% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 67.1% 74.2% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.5% 78.6% 68.6%
Conference Champion 20.5% 22.7% 15.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.0% 5.4%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round16.0% 17.4% 12.8%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 65 - 11
Quad 412 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 248 @San Diego W 71-68 57%     1 - 0 +1.1 +3.6 -2.2
  Sun, Nov 9 52 @San Diego St. L 57-73 11%     1 - 1 -2.6 -1.9 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 15 118 @Seattle L 74-83 27%     1 - 2 -2.8 +14.5 -18.5
  Tue, Nov 18 74 @Santa Clara L 55-64 15%     1 - 3 +1.8 -8.6 +9.6
  Wed, Nov 26 125 Sam Houston St. L 81-84 41%     1 - 4 -0.7 +5.5 -6.0
  Fri, Nov 28 221 Cal St. Northridge W 82-50 63%     2 - 4 +28.4 +0.6 +25.5
  Wed, Dec 3 346 @UMKC W 68-59 80%     3 - 4 +0.1 +4.5 -3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 312 Denver W 93-79 86%     4 - 4 +2.0 +12.2 -9.6
  Wed, Dec 10 84 @Utah Valley L 69-73 18%     4 - 5 +5.8 +4.8 +0.9
  Sun, Dec 21 198 UC Davis W 71-66 70%    
  Thu, Jan 1 279 Sacramento St. W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 177 Portland St. W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 154 @Northern Colorado L 69-72 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 270 @Northern Arizona W 69-66 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 172 @Idaho L 70-72 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 Eastern Washington W 78-71 75%    
  Thu, Jan 22 174 @Montana St. L 66-68 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 205 @Montana L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 212 @Weber St. W 71-70 51%    
  Mon, Feb 2 177 @Portland St. L 66-68 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 270 Northern Arizona W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 Northern Colorado W 72-69 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 241 @Eastern Washington W 75-74 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 172 @Idaho L 70-72 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 205 Montana W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 Montana St. W 69-65 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 212 Weber St. W 74-68 70%    
  Mon, Mar 2 279 @Sacramento St. W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.1 5.6 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 20.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.3 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.6 2.6 0.3 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.3 6.7 9.5 12.0 13.5 13.5 12.3 10.2 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 98.9% 2.0    2.0 0.1
15-3 93.2% 3.9    3.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 78.9% 5.6    3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 50.3% 5.1    2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 20.6% 2.5    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 13.0 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 67.4% 67.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 39.7% 39.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.1% 43.1% 43.1% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.2% 38.2% 38.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.6
14-4 7.1% 32.5% 32.5% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8
13-5 10.2% 26.1% 26.1% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 7.5
12-6 12.3% 20.9% 20.9% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 9.7
11-7 13.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 11.5
10-8 13.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.2 11.7
9-9 12.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 10.8
8-10 9.5% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 8.9
7-11 6.7% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 6.5
6-12 4.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 4.2
5-13 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.5 4.7 1.7 83.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.2 7.4 3.7 51.9 37.0