Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #231
Pace 79.2 #10
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 D- B- D C C+
Defense #158 C C- C+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.14 #193 +3.4 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.60 #349 -1.3 #244
Three Pointers 33% #325 0.78 #363 -7.9 #359
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #335 -5.7 #336
Freethrows 0.32 #133 68% #320 0.21 #196
Second Chance 31.8% #148 1.15 #61 0.37 #82
Turnovers 19.0% #324
Total Offense -4.5 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #7 1.16 #184 -5.2 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #271 0.68 #66 +1.7 #61
Three Pointers 35% #337 1.04 #211 +2.7 #80
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #202 -0.7 #202
Freethrows 0.31 #221 71% #103 0.22 #198
Second Chance 33.6% #302 1.03 #156 0.35 #254
Turnovers 17.5% #106
Total Defense +0.1 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #148 2.0% #341
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.8% #348 -0.5% #174
Possession Length 15.7 #42 16.8 #91
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #24 0.20 #280
Improvement -1.3 #254 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 19.9% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 83.1% 90.7% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 99.2% 93.4%
Conference Champion 14.4% 21.9% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 3.5% 3.8%
First Round14.0% 18.4% 9.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 416 - 716 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 15 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -17 -10 F+ D- D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 26 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 3% -22  0 - 2 -25 -6 C+ A F -13 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 247 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 51% -6  1 - 2 +1 +0 C+ D D +0 C- B B
 Sun, Nov 16 298 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 52% -2  1 - 3 -14 -7 F C F -7 F D- B
 Thu, Nov 20 31 @Indiana L 53 - 73 3% -14  1 - 4 -2 -14 F C+ D +11 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 24 354 UMKC W 80 - 67 88% +6  2 - 4 -4 -5 C F D+ -0 C- B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 309 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 55% +22  3 - 4 +29 +19 F+ A+ A- +8 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 312 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 57% -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 +8 D+ B+ C+ -7 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 359 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 89% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 -2 +5 C B+ D+ -8 D- D D+
 Tue, Dec 23 181 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 29% -5  5 - 5 -4 -6 F D- A- +2 B D F+
 Thu, Jan 1 300 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 74% +6  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -2 B+ F C +4 C+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 324 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 80% +5  7 - 5 4 - 0 -10 +6 F+ A+ D -16 F D B
 Tue, Jan 6 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 43% -2  7 - 6 4 - 1 -7 -9 F B+ F+ +2 B C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 281 Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 82 70% -5  7 - 7 4 - 2 -18 -2 D+ C+ F -16 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 251 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 76 41% +17  8 - 7 5 - 2 +10 +3 D A+ D- +5 B+ D- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 228 @Tennessee Martin L 55 - 69 36% -4  8 - 8 5 - 3 -15 -17 F D- F +2 C- D A+
 Thu, Jan 22 338 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 68 82% +19  9 - 8 6 - 3 +7 +3 B- A+ F +2 A- A B-
 Sat, Jan 24 231 Tennessee St. L 86 - 96 59% -5  9 - 9 6 - 4 -17 +1 C- C- D- -16 F C- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 324 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 60 60% +8  10 - 9 7 - 4 +6 -7 F C+ F +11 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 300 @Morehead St. W 77 - 76 51%
 Tue, Feb 3 263 SIU Edwardsville W 72 - 68 66%
 Thu, Feb 5 281 @Arkansas Little Rock L 75 - 76 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 228 Tennessee Martin W 73 - 71 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 251 Southeast Missouri St. W 80 - 76 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 231 @Tennessee St. L 79 - 83 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 338 @Tennessee Tech W 78 - 74 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 312 Eastern Illinois W 75 - 67 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 359 @Western Illinois W 76 - 68 77%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 -4 -5 D- B- D +0 C C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 6.2 5.3 1.8 14.4 1st
2nd 0.9 9.8 9.1 1.6 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.8 10.4 1.1 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 10.5 2.5 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.7 7.1 5.1 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 4.7 0.6 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.7 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 7.6 15.6 23.9 24.1 16.4 6.9 1.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 99.4% 1.8    1.6 0.1
15-5 76.5% 5.3    2.8 2.2 0.3
14-6 37.6% 6.2    1.3 2.9 1.6 0.3
13-7 4.8% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 5.8 5.5 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.8% 47.6% 47.6% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9
15-5 6.9% 34.8% 34.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.7 4.5
14-6 16.4% 31.6% 31.6% 15.6 0.0 2.0 3.1 11.2
13-7 24.1% 16.0% 16.0% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.9 20.2
12-8 23.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 21.9
11-9 15.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.1 0.8 14.7
10-10 7.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.3 7.3
9-11 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 0.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.5 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 14.1 17.8 49.7 32.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.1%