IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.2	#175
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.0	#69
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.0	#261

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.8	#118

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.3%	20.3%	12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.6	14.3

.500 or above	54.8%	64.8%	38.5%
.500 or above in Conference	67.9%	73.9%	58.2%
Conference Champion	19.5%	23.4%	13.2%
Last Place in Conference	8.0%	5.7%	11.7%

First Four	1.2%	0.9%	1.8%
First Round	17.2%	20.3%	12.3%
Second Round	1.1%	1.5%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 4	15 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	182	Nebraska Omaha	W	74-71	62%
Nov 14, 2025	212	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	67-68	45%
Nov 18, 2025	193	@ Texas St.	L	68-70	42%
Nov 23, 2025	167	Texas San Antonio	L	74-75	49%
Nov 25, 2025	229	William & Mary	W	78-76	59%
Dec 02, 2025	239	@ Pepperdine	W	73-72	50%
Dec 06, 2025	138	New Mexico St.	W	67-66	51%
Dec 16, 2025	10	@ Arizona	L	64-86	3%
Dec 19, 2025	9	@ BYU	L	62-85	3%
Dec 22, 2025	285	@ Texas Southern	W	73-70	59%
Jan 01, 2026	271	Utah Tech	W	74-66	74%
Jan 03, 2026	119	Utah Valley	L	70-71	47%
Jan 08, 2026	274	@ Tarleton St.	W	67-65	56%
Jan 10, 2026	202	@ Texas Arlington	L	70-72	43%
Jan 15, 2026	169	California Baptist	W	70-67	60%
Jan 17, 2026	268	@ Southern Utah	W	73-71	55%
Jan 24, 2026	274	@ Tarleton St.	W	67-65	56%
Jan 29, 2026	271	Utah Tech	W	74-66	74%
Jan 31, 2026	268	Southern Utah	W	76-68	73%
Feb 05, 2026	119	@ Utah Valley	L	67-74	29%
Feb 07, 2026	169	@ California Baptist	L	67-70	40%
Feb 12, 2026	202	Texas Arlington	W	73-69	63%
Feb 14, 2026	274	Tarleton St.	W	70-62	74%
Feb 21, 2026	268	Southern Utah	W	76-68	73%
Feb 26, 2026	271	@ Utah Tech	W	71-69	56%
Feb 28, 2026	119	@ Utah Valley	L	67-74	30%
Mar 05, 2026	169	@ California Baptist	L	67-70	40%
Mar 07, 2026	202	Texas Arlington	W	73-69	63%
Projected Record						14 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.5	1.9	3.7	4.8	4.3	2.7	1.3	0.3		19.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	2.0	4.9	6.5	4.6	2.1	0.6	0.0				20.8	2nd
3rd								0.1	0.8	3.7	6.3	5.0	2.1	0.4	0.0						18.4	3rd
4th						0.0	0.2	1.7	4.8	5.5	2.7	0.5	0.0								15.5	4th
5th					0.1	0.5	2.6	4.3	3.7	1.0	0.1										12.3	5th
6th			0.0	0.3	1.2	2.4	2.6	1.5	0.2	0.0											8.2	6th
7th	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.0													5.2	7th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.5	2.7	3.9	5.8	7.6	9.5	10.5	11.2	10.9	10.5	8.7	6.9	4.9	2.7	1.3	0.3			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	100.0%	1.3		1.3
16-2	99.5%	2.7		2.5	0.1
15-3	88.5%	4.3		3.7	0.6	0.0
14-4	69.0%	4.8		3.4	1.3	0.1
13-5	43.0%	3.7		2.0	1.5	0.2	0.0
12-6	18.0%	1.9		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.0
11-7	4.5%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
10-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	19.5%	19.5		13.9	4.7	0.9	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		72.4%	72.4%		10.9					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-1	1.3%		64.5%	64.2%	0.3%	12.1											0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.5		0.9%
16-2	2.7%		53.9%	53.9%		12.4									0.0			0.1	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0		1.2
15-3	4.9%		46.5%	46.5%		13.0												0.1	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.1		2.6
14-4	6.9%		38.4%	38.4%		13.4												0.0	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	4.3
13-5	8.7%		32.0%	32.0%		13.9												0.0	0.2	0.9	1.1	0.5	0.1	5.9
12-6	10.5%		24.1%	24.1%		14.6												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.2	8.0
11-7	10.9%		17.6%	17.6%		15.1													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.3	9.0
10-8	11.2%		10.2%	10.2%		16.5													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	10.1
9-9	10.5%		7.2%	7.2%		16.7														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	9.8
8-10	9.5%		4.1%	4.1%		17.5															0.0	0.1	0.3	9.1
7-11	7.6%		2.8%	2.8%		16.2																0.0	0.2	7.4
6-12	5.8%		1.1%	1.1%		17.0																	0.1	5.7
5-13	3.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
4-14	2.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		17.3%	17.3%	0.0%	14.1					0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	2.6	4.3	4.5	3.6	2.0	82.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%