Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#223
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#174
Pace65.7#283
Improvement+2.4#53

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#281
First Shot-6.3#340
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks-3.5#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#295
Freethrows-1.3#269
Improvement+2.7#26

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot-2.4#257
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#23
Layups/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-5.8#363
Improvement-0.3#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.0% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 29.7% 66.1% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 38.9% 60.5% 38.8%
Conference Champion 2.4% 9.6% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 6.2% 13.2%
First Four0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round3.9% 4.0% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 49 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 231 Nebraska Omaha W 73-71 63%     1 - 0 -5.1 -3.5 -1.5
  Fri, Nov 14 134 @Stephen F. Austin L 66-76 21%     1 - 1 -5.3 -0.7 -5.1
  Tue, Nov 18 260 @Texas St. L 49-63 45%     1 - 2 -16.5 -18.3 +0.3
  Mon, Nov 24 295 Texas San Antonio W 61-50 63%     2 - 2 +3.8 -5.6 +10.8
  Tue, Nov 25 120 William & Mary L 58-92 26%     2 - 3 -31.1 -16.8 -12.2
  Tue, Dec 2 294 @Pepperdine W 71-63 52%     3 - 3 +3.8 +7.9 -3.1
  Sat, Dec 6 135 New Mexico St. W 77-69 41%     4 - 3 +6.6 +12.0 -4.5
  Tue, Dec 16 3 @Arizona L 62-96 1%     4 - 4 -8.4 -1.6 -4.9
  Fri, Dec 19 9 @BYU L 57-84 1%    
  Mon, Dec 22 321 @Texas Southern W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 1 262 Utah Tech W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 82 Utah Valley L 64-72 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 194 @Tarleton St. L 68-73 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 179 @Texas Arlington L 63-68 31%    
  Thu, Jan 15 127 California Baptist L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 @Southern Utah W 72-70 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 194 @Tarleton St. L 68-73 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 262 Utah Tech W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 316 Southern Utah W 75-67 77%    
  Thu, Feb 5 82 @Utah Valley L 61-75 11%    
  Sat, Feb 7 127 @California Baptist L 63-72 21%    
  Thu, Feb 12 179 Texas Arlington W 66-65 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 194 Tarleton St. W 71-70 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 316 Southern Utah W 75-67 77%    
  Thu, Feb 26 262 @Utah Tech L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 82 @Utah Valley L 61-75 12%    
  Thu, Mar 5 127 @California Baptist L 63-72 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 179 Texas Arlington W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.5 7.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 21.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 6.2 8.8 5.4 1.3 0.1 23.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.7 5.3 2.2 0.3 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 7th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.0 8.9 12.3 14.4 14.4 13.1 10.3 7.3 4.3 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 77.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 59.3% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.1% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 11.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.9% 20.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 23.4% 23.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.2% 22.2% 22.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.3% 16.8% 16.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.9
12-6 4.3% 15.5% 15.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.6
11-7 7.3% 9.8% 9.8% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.5
10-8 10.3% 6.6% 6.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 9.6
9-9 13.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 12.6
8-10 14.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 14.0
7-11 14.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.2
6-12 12.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.3
5-13 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.9
4-14 6.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.9
3-15 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.0 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%