Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #268
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #240
Pace 66.8 #233
Improvement -0.7 #221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #297 D+ C D- C D+
Defense #227 D- C- A F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.06 #291 -0.8 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #65 0.73 #212 +2.0 #77
Three Pointers 33% #334 1.00 #202 -4.4 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #272 -3.2 #272
Freethrows 0.32 #132 71% #229 0.23 #151
Second Chance 32.3% #131 0.93 #299 0.30 #200
Turnovers 20.4% #342
Total Offense -4.7 #297

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.24 #289 -6.7 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #271 0.75 #175 +1.1 #104
Three Pointers 36% #323 1.21 #362 -0.8 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #348 -6.3 #348
Freethrows 0.44 #364 74% #286 0.33 #365
Second Chance 29.6% #133 1.12 #305 0.33 #232
Turnovers 22.0% #10
Total Defense -1.3 #227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 1.9% #334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #265 10.3% #343
Possession Length 18.3 #287 16.7 #83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #150 0.24 #344
Improvement +0.6 #144 -1.3 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 3.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 1.2% 5.8% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 7.1% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 64.9% 40.7% 67.4%
First Four0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
First Round0.9% 2.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 240 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 56% +4  1 - 0 -6 -2 C C+ F -3 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 11% -1  1 - 1 -2 +2 D+ D C+ -4 D- B+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 259 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 37% -11  1 - 2 -17 -18 F B F -0 D- B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 342 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 71% +7  2 - 2 -1 -9 F B F +9 B C- A-
 Tue, Nov 25 150 William & Mary L 58 - 92 26% -12  2 - 3 -33 -19 F+ D- F -13 F D+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 284 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 42% +8  3 - 3 +4 +8 C+ C A- -3 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 167 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 41% +5  4 - 3 +4 +9 A+ B F -4 C- B- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  4 - 4 -7 -0 C C+ D -5 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 15 @BYU L 67 - 85 1% -5  4 - 5 +3 +1 D+ A F +2 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 310 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 50% -2  5 - 5 +1 -1 D+ D+ F +2 D- C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 209 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 50% -14  5 - 6 0 - 1 -21 -8 C+ F+ F -14 F C+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 102 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 23% +5  6 - 6 1 - 1 +19 +15 A+ D+ A+ +4 D+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 226 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 30% +7  7 - 6 2 - 1 +3 +9 C+ A+ D -6 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 162 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 20% -6  7 - 7 2 - 2 -7 +9 A- B- C- -16 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 15 133 California Baptist L 58 - 74 32% -13  7 - 8 2 - 3 -17 -8 D+ F B+ -10 D+ B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 285 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 42% -11  7 - 9 2 - 4 -26 -23 F F F -2 D- C- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 209 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 50% -7  7 - 10 2 - 5 -12 -9 D A- F+ -3 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 285 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 65% +4  7 - 11 2 - 6 -13 +1 B D C -14 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 102 @Utah Valley L 65 - 79 10%
 Sat, Feb 7 133 @California Baptist L 63 - 74 16%
 Thu, Feb 12 162 Texas Arlington L 65 - 68 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 226 Tarleton St. W 74 - 73 53%
 Mon, Feb 16 226 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 Southern Utah W 76 - 72 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 209 @Utah Tech L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 102 @Utah Valley L 65 - 79 10%
 Thu, Mar 5 133 @California Baptist L 63 - 74 16%
 Sat, Mar 7 162 Texas Arlington L 65 - 68 40%
Totals 10 - 18 5 - 13 -6 -5 D+ C D- -1 D- C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 1.2 6.8 7.7 2.4 0.2 18.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 13.3 11.4 2.7 0.1 30.9 6th
7th 2.8 12.5 18.3 11.0 1.8 0.1 46.4 7th
Total 2.8 12.6 21.6 25.5 20.1 11.4 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 4.5% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 1.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.1
8-10 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.4
7-11 11.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 11.2
6-12 20.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 19.7
5-13 25.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.4
4-14 21.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 21.5
3-15 12.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.8 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%