IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.3	#309
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.3	#206
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.5	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.8	#298

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.3%	4.4%	2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.8	15.0	15.2

.500 or above	16.5%	35.9%	13.3%
.500 or above in Conference	26.7%	40.9%	24.4%
Conference Champion	1.6%	3.2%	1.4%
Last Place in Conference	15.4%	8.3%	16.5%

First Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.7%
First Round	2.3%	4.6%	1.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 4	8 - 8	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	154	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	66-77	14%
Nov 07, 2025	63	@ Notre Dame	L	57-78	3%
Nov 15, 2025	180	@ Toledo	L	70-80	19%
Nov 18, 2025	291	Eastern Michigan	W	72-70	57%
Nov 21, 2025	21	@ Michigan St.	L	56-83	1%
Nov 23, 2025	84	@ DePaul	L	62-80	6%
Nov 29, 2025	335	@ Niagara	L	66-67	47%
Dec 03, 2025	359	IU Indianapolis	W	73-64	79%
Dec 06, 2025	232	@ Cleveland St.	L	64-71	26%
Dec 14, 2025	192	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	69-78	21%
Dec 29, 2025	179	@ Youngstown St.	L	67-77	20%
Jan 02, 2026	207	Robert Morris	L	69-72	41%
Jan 09, 2026	191	Wright St.	L	70-73	39%
Jan 11, 2026	232	Cleveland St.	L	67-68	46%
Jan 15, 2026	266	@ Northern Kentucky	L	65-71	32%
Jan 17, 2026	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	70-67	61%
Jan 21, 2026	192	Purdue Fort Wayne	L	72-75	39%
Jan 24, 2026	197	Oakland	L	65-68	40%
Jan 30, 2026	266	Northern Kentucky	W	68-67	51%
Feb 04, 2026	214	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	68-76	25%
Feb 07, 2026	314	@ Green Bay	L	71-74	41%
Feb 12, 2026	191	@ Wright St.	L	67-76	22%
Feb 15, 2026	179	Youngstown St.	L	70-74	37%
Feb 20, 2026	214	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	71-73	43%
Feb 22, 2026	314	Green Bay	W	74-71	61%
Feb 28, 2026	197	@ Oakland	L	62-71	23%
Projected Record						9 - 17	7 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0			1.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0					3.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.5	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0						4.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	2.3	2.1	0.6	0.0	0.0							5.6	4th
5th									0.1	0.8	2.7	2.7	0.8	0.1									7.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.2	3.6	3.3	1.0	0.1	0.0									9.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.6	3.9	4.1	1.4	0.1											11.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.5	5.2	4.3	1.5	0.1												14.0	8th
9th				0.2	1.3	3.6	5.7	4.2	1.3	0.1													16.4	9th
10th		0.1	0.7	2.7	5.0	5.2	2.6	0.8	0.1	0.0													17.1	10th
11th	0.4	1.5	2.6	2.8	2.0	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0														10.3	11th

Total	0.4	1.6	3.4	5.7	8.2	10.0	11.1	11.9	10.9	10.1	8.2	6.6	4.8	3.3	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-3	93.6%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
16-4	72.0%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	45.2%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1
14-6	17.4%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	3.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.6%	1.6		0.8	0.6	0.2	0.1		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		50.3%	50.3%		13.5														0.0	0.0			0.0
18-2	0.1%		28.4%	28.4%		12.7												0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0
17-3	0.2%		23.5%	23.5%		12.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-4	0.5%		26.5%	26.5%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.4
15-5	1.1%		16.2%	16.2%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9
14-6	2.0%		15.2%	15.2%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.7
13-7	3.3%		10.9%	10.9%		17.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	3.0
12-8	4.8%		7.3%	7.3%		17.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	4.4
11-9	6.6%		6.0%	6.0%		18.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	6.2
10-10	8.2%		2.8%	2.8%		17.2																0.1	0.2	7.9
9-11	10.1%		1.7%	1.7%		18.5																0.0	0.2	10.0
8-12	10.9%		0.3%	0.3%		17.7																	0.0	10.9
7-13	11.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.8
6-14	11.1%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
5-15	10.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
4-16	8.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
3-17	5.7%																							5.7
2-18	3.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
1-19	1.6%																							1.6
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.3%	2.3%	0.0%	16.8												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.2	97.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%