Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.6 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #280
Pace 68.9 #176
Improvement -3.3 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #229 C C+ D D+ B-
Defense #219 C- C+ B- F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.16 #175 -2.9 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #324 0.69 #283 -3.3 #331
Three Pointers 54% #10 0.98 #228 +5.5 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #197 -0.7 #195
Freethrows 0.27 #285 70% #243 0.19 #293
Second Chance 32.5% #128 1.05 #160 0.34 #124
Turnovers 19.1% #329
Total Offense -2.2 #229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #76 1.28 #316 -4.9 #335
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #80 0.66 #39 -0.1 #190
Three Pointers 34% #350 1.05 #239 +3.1 #63
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #236 -1.8 #238
Freethrows 0.37 #335 75% #316 0.28 #348
Second Chance 31.4% #221 0.97 #80 0.30 #140
Turnovers 18.4% #70
Total Defense -1.4 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #98 -0.2% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #219 3.7% #251
Possession Length 18.3 #273 16.7 #77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #160 0.24 #348
Improvement +0.0 #181 -3.3 #338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.5% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 14.3% 15.9% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 14.8% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 2.0% 17.3%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 2.0%
First Round3.5% 3.7% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 32 - 83 - 10
Quad 410 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 13% -3  0 - 1 -6 -7 C+ F D+ -1 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 75 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 10% +3  1 - 1 +20 +23 A+ A+ A+ -4 C+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 141 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 23% +5  1 - 2 +0 +7 C- A+ D- -7 F+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 164 @Toledo L 75 - 92 28% -8  1 - 3 -14 -4 D+ A- F -9 F+ D B
 Sun, Nov 23 305 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 68% +9  1 - 4 -14 -20 F F F +6 C B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 245 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 54% +4  2 - 4 +1 -8 C- B- F +9 B A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 358 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 90% +21  3 - 4 +5 +5 A+ F+ C -0 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 151 Wright St. W 69 - 68 46% +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -6 D+ A+ F +4 C- A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 340 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 69% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +14 +3 B- D+ F +13 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 203 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 35% +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +6 A+ A- F -9 C- C D
 Sat, Dec 20 307 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 77% +8  6 - 5 -3 -3 C+ F F+ +1 A- C- B
 Mon, Dec 29 291 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 74% -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -15 -11 F F+ B -4 F+ A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 135 Oakland L 83 - 85 41% +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -3 +11 D A+ A+ -14 F C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 179 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 31% -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -13 -2 F D A+ -10 F D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 224 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 62% -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -9 -3 F A+ F -5 C- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 151 @Wright St. L 83 - 93 25% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -7 +16 C A+ B- -23 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 321 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 80 61% -1  6 - 11 2 - 7 -9 -0 D+ F C+ -8 F C B
 Thu, Jan 22 244 Green Bay W 88 - 81 65% +8  7 - 11 3 - 7 -1 +13 A B+ D -13 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64 - 65 65% +1  7 - 12 3 - 8 -9 -11 D- F F +2 C C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 340 IU Indianapolis W 88 - 77 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 203 Robert Morris W 73 - 71 58%
 Thu, Feb 12 135 @Oakland L 77 - 85 22%
 Sun, Feb 15 291 @Detroit Mercy W 77 - 76 53%
 Wed, Feb 18 321 Cleveland St. W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Northern Kentucky W 77 - 76 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74 - 76 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 @Green Bay L 72 - 74 43%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -4 -2 C C+ D -1 C- C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.2 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.3 4.5 3.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 5.0 8.9 1.4 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.9 8.4 15.0 4.7 0.2 29.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 7.9 11.9 4.4 0.2 26.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 1.8 0.2 10.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 11th
Total 0.1 1.2 6.0 13.4 22.4 24.8 19.1 9.7 3.0 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.4% 18.1% 18.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 3.0% 11.9% 11.9% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.6
10-10 9.7% 7.6% 7.6% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 9.0
9-11 19.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 18.0
8-12 24.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 23.7
7-13 22.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 21.7
6-14 13.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 13.1
5-15 6.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.9
4-16 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.6 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%