Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.4 #138
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #161
Pace 66.8 #233
Improvement +8.2 #3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #168 D+ B C- C+ C
Defense #120 B- D+ B+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #100 1.07 #282 -0.1 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #129 0.76 #163 +0.9 #127
Three Pointers 36% #296 0.97 #242 -3.6 #303
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -2.8 #256
Freethrows 0.31 #161 74% #143 0.23 #144
Second Chance 36.4% #34 1.08 #131 0.39 #47
Turnovers 17.1% #228
Total Offense -0.2 #168

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.12 #120 +2.5 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #264 0.69 #78 +1.5 #77
Three Pointers 47% #44 0.97 #111 -1.6 #260
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #102 +2.4 #105
Freethrows 0.31 #207 76% #335 0.23 #256
Second Chance 37.6% #356 0.96 #76 0.36 #288
Turnovers 19.8% #32
Total Defense +1.6 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #203 0.3% #187
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #267 -5.0% #81
Possession Length 18.0 #240 17.6 #213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #121 0.20 #269
Improvement +3.2 #35 +5.0 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.2% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 49.7% 67.8% 38.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 95.6% 81.6%
Conference Champion 3.6% 6.7% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 7.2% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 35 - 98 - 14
Quad 47 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 291 Detroit Mercy W 91 - 71 86% +6  1 - 0 +10 +1 C- A F +6 A- B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 182 @Oregon St. L 73 - 76 50% -3  1 - 1 -2 +1 B- D F -3 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 358 @Chicago St. W 67 - 63 89% -2  2 - 1 -8 -4 F A+ F+ -3 D C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 96 High Point L 80 - 90 34% -6  2 - 2 -4 +3 D+ A+ F -7 C- C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 322 Southern Indiana W 84 - 73 85% +11  3 - 2 +1 +6 C+ C F -5 F+ C B-
 Wed, Nov 26 203 @Robert Morris L 74 - 88 54% -13  3 - 3 -14 +3 D- A- D+ -17 D+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62 - 63 91% -5  3 - 4 -14 -19 F D F +5 C D B+
 Sun, Dec 7 71 @Yale L 66 - 80 18% -4  3 - 5 -3 -0 F C B -4 A+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Belmont L 84 - 87 20% +3  3 - 6 0 - 1 +7 +23 A- B+ A+ -16 F D A-
 Wed, Dec 17 114 Northern Iowa L 54 - 60 54% -2  3 - 7 0 - 2 -6 -6 F B+ B -1 D C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 165 @Charlotte L 76 - 88 OT 46% +9  3 - 8 -9 +0 C+ D- F+ -10 B+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 1 103 Murray St. L 77 - 81 48% +1  3 - 9 0 - 3 -2 -1 D B F+ -1 A+ F A-
 Sun, Jan 4 167 @Valparaiso L 59 - 66 46% +1  3 - 10 0 - 4 -5 -3 D+ B F -2 B C B
 Wed, Jan 7 134 Southern Illinois W 70 - 57 60% +8  4 - 10 1 - 4 +12 +6 F+ A+ A- +7 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 88 @Illinois St. W 63 - 59 OT 22% +1  5 - 10 2 - 4 +13 -4 F A+ F +17 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 114 @Northern Iowa W 69 - 61 31% +0  6 - 10 3 - 4 +14 +13 A- B- A+ +3 A+ F B
 Sat, Jan 17 152 Drake W 74 - 67 65% +7  7 - 10 4 - 4 +4 +4 F+ A B- +1 B B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 267 Evansville W 76 - 49 83% +13  8 - 10 5 - 4 +18 +5 C+ B B+ +15 A A- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 127 @Bradley W 85 - 70 36% +8  9 - 10 6 - 4 +20 +20 A+ C+ A +1 C C+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 196 Indiana St. W 76 - 74 74% +10  10 - 10 7 - 4 -3 +4 B+ D D+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 134 @Southern Illinois L 69 - 72 38%
 Tue, Feb 3 103 @Murray St. L 77 - 83 27%
 Fri, Feb 6 78 Belmont L 74 - 77 39%
 Thu, Feb 12 152 @Drake L 70 - 72 42%
 Sun, Feb 15 88 Illinois St. L 69 - 71 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 267 @Evansville W 72 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 Valparaiso W 72 - 67 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 127 Bradley W 73 - 71 58%
 Sun, Mar 1 196 @Indiana St. W 74 - 73 52%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 9 +1 +0 D+ B C- +2 B- D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.3 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 9.0 7.1 0.7 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 9.7 9.7 1.4 22.0 4th
5th 0.3 6.4 9.9 1.8 0.0 18.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 8.0 2.3 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 1.0 4.3 1.9 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.5 3.2 9.4 17.4 23.8 22.2 14.8 6.4 1.9 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-5 70.1% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 26.9% 1.7    0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.9% 11.9% 11.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-6 6.4% 11.3% 11.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.7
13-7 14.8% 8.7% 8.7% 12.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 13.5
12-8 22.2% 7.0% 7.0% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 20.6
11-9 23.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 22.7
10-10 17.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 16.9
9-11 9.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 9.3
8-12 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.5 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.3%