Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#189
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#276
Pace69.6#183
Improvement-0.2#199

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#173
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#42
Layup/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#294
Freethrows+3.4#27
Improvement+1.6#67

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#227
First Shot+0.7#139
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#320
Layups/Dunks+1.0#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#302
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-1.7#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 12.4% 21.9% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.8% 36.7% 15.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 8.6% 21.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 7
Quad 34 - 95 - 16
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 291 Detroit Mercy W 91-71 79%     1 - 0 +9.8 +2.1 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 7 159 @Oregon St. L 73-76 31%     1 - 1 +0.2 +3.0 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 338 @Chicago St. W 67-63 72%     2 - 1 -3.9 -3.4 -0.1
  Thu, Nov 20 105 High Point L 80-90 29%     2 - 2 -6.0 +2.8 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 22 317 Southern Indiana W 84-73 76%     3 - 2 +1.7 +4.5 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 26 184 @Robert Morris L 74-88 38%     3 - 3 -12.6 +5.3 -18.4
  Wed, Dec 3 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 62-63 90%     3 - 4 -16.7 -19.0 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 79 @Yale L 66-80 13%     3 - 5 -3.6 -1.8 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 13 85 @Belmont L 84-87 14%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +6.6 +23.1 -16.8
  Wed, Dec 17 93 Northern Iowa L 65-69 35%    
  Sun, Dec 21 194 @Charlotte L 70-72 41%    
  Thu, Jan 1 99 Murray St. L 80-84 37%    
  Sun, Jan 4 213 @Valparaiso L 70-72 44%    
  Wed, Jan 7 129 Southern Illinois L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 90 @Illinois St. L 69-80 16%    
  Tue, Jan 13 93 @Northern Iowa L 62-72 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 136 Drake L 72-73 48%    
  Tue, Jan 20 275 Evansville W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 116 @Bradley L 69-77 23%    
  Tue, Jan 27 181 Indiana St. W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 129 @Southern Illinois L 72-79 28%    
  Tue, Feb 3 99 @Murray St. L 77-87 19%    
  Fri, Feb 6 85 Belmont L 76-81 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 136 @Drake L 70-76 28%    
  Sun, Feb 15 90 Illinois St. L 72-77 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 275 @Evansville W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 213 Valparaiso W 73-69 65%    
  Tue, Feb 24 116 Bradley L 72-74 42%    
  Sun, Mar 1 181 @Indiana St. L 74-77 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.9 5.9 1.9 0.2 16.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.4 5.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9 5.5 3.8 1.3 0.1 16.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.4 7.4 10.7 13.2 14.2 12.9 11.4 9.0 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 94.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 81.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 52.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.1% 21.1% 21.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.4% 14.8% 14.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.0% 8.8% 8.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-7 2.1% 7.9% 7.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
12-8 3.9% 6.0% 6.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
10-10 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7
9-11 11.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 11.2
8-12 12.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.8
7-13 14.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.1
6-14 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-15 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-16 7.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-17 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-18 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%