Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #151
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #173
Pace 66.8 #236
Improvement -0.2 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C B- C C+ C
Defense #223 C C C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.14 #193 +2.0 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #135 0.82 #95 +1.5 #100
Three Pointers 35% #311 1.05 #143 -2.7 #276
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +0.8 #149
Freethrows 0.31 #163 74% #121 0.23 #134
Second Chance 30.7% #177 1.18 #37 0.36 #89
Turnovers 16.4% #174
Total Offense +1.9 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.16 #175 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #102 0.87 #331 -2.0 #328
Three Pointers 33% #353 0.96 #99 +5.1 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.4 #192
Freethrows 0.30 #185 70% #76 0.21 #158
Second Chance 31.7% #231 1.03 #148 0.33 #194
Turnovers 17.1% #139
Total Defense -1.4 #223

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #192 0.4% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #149 0.4% #191
Possession Length 18.5 #294 17.0 #115
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #292 0.16 #150
Improvement +4.1 #16 -4.4 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 26.3% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 97.8% 99.4% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 47.4% 58.3% 32.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round24.0% 26.3% 20.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 69 @California L 67 - 77 16% -6  0 - 1 +1 +1 D- B+ A+ -0 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 164 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  0 - 2 -13 -3 B- B- F -11 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 253 Radford W 92 - 59 71% +13  1 - 2 +28 +11 B+ C+ C +15 B+ A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 143 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 47% +2  1 - 3 -3 -5 D C C +3 A D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 329 @Stetson W 79 - 62 78% +15  2 - 3 +10 +9 B+ B F +2 C+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 60 @Butler L 69 - 94 14% -5  2 - 4 -13 -4 C C- D+ -7 D- D C-
 Wed, Dec 3 221 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 54% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -2 -4 C C- C +2 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 244 Green Bay W 86 - 58 78% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +9 D+ A+ B- +12 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 168 @Marshall L 74 - 76 42% +1  3 - 6 +0 +10 B D- A+ -10 C D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 91 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 40% -8  3 - 7 -4 -1 D C- B+ -3 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 242 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 78% +1  4 - 7 -1 -3 C F+ D- +1 B- B+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 135 Oakland W 88 - 73 57% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +14 +9 A+ C D- +4 A- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 1 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 78% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 +4 F+ B+ B+ -5 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 80% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -5 +6 C- A+ F -10 D C C+
 Fri, Jan 9 291 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 68% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +7 B- D F+ -10 C F C-
 Sun, Jan 11 135 @Oakland W 94 - 84 34% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +15 +15 A+ D F -1 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 221 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 75% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +3 +24 C A+ A+ -20 C- F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 321 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 88% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -19 -2 F B- A- -16 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 24 179 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 68% +9  11 - 8 8 - 2 +4 +12 C+ C A+ -8 F C+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77 - 75 58%
 Sun, Feb 1 244 @Green Bay W 74 - 72 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 203 @Robert Morris W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79 - 72 75%
 Thu, Feb 12 291 Detroit Mercy W 83 - 72 85%
 Sun, Feb 15 321 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 76 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 340 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 76 92%
 Sun, Feb 22 203 Robert Morris W 76 - 70 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 @Northern Kentucky L 77 - 78 46%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +0 +2 C B- C -1 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.4 13.4 16.2 9.1 2.5 47.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 8.5 14.8 10.6 2.6 37.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.7 14.5 21.3 24.1 18.8 9.1 2.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-3 100.0% 9.1    7.8 1.3
16-4 86.2% 16.2    11.0 5.2 0.0
15-5 55.6% 13.4    6.2 6.8 0.4
14-6 25.4% 5.4    1.3 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.4% 47.4 28.9 16.5 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.5% 41.9% 41.9% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.5
17-3 9.1% 32.4% 32.4% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.1 6.1
16-4 18.8% 27.8% 27.8% 14.0 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.0 0.0 13.6
15-5 24.1% 26.0% 26.0% 14.3 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.4 0.1 17.8
14-6 21.3% 21.7% 21.7% 14.6 0.1 1.8 2.5 0.1 16.7
13-7 14.5% 18.6% 18.6% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.3 11.8
12-8 6.7% 12.8% 12.8% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 5.8
11-9 2.2% 11.9% 11.9% 15.4 0.2 0.1 2.0
10-10 0.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 14.2 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.7 3.8 33.3 53.5 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%