Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#242
Pace66.6#261
Improvement+0.9#118

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot-1.3#213
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#79
Layup/Dunks-0.7#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#146
Freethrows-3.0#329
Improvement+2.0#50

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#139
First Shot+2.3#101
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#295
Layups/Dunks-6.9#355
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#1
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement-1.1#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 25.3% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 82.3% 90.0% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.9% 91.4%
Conference Champion 28.4% 32.9% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.9% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round22.2% 25.1% 19.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 81 @California L 67-77 19%     0 - 1 +0.3 -1.0 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 167 Toledo L 71-81 68%     0 - 2 -13.7 -3.1 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 255 Radford W 92-59 73%     1 - 2 +27.8 +12.9 +13.8
  Sun, Nov 16 131 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 47%     1 - 3 -2.2 -5.7 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 347 @Stetson W 79-62 82%     2 - 3 +8.1 +8.7 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 54 @Butler L 69-94 13%     2 - 4 -12.0 -4.6 -5.7
  Wed, Dec 3 166 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 44%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.5 -0.5 +2.0
  Sun, Dec 7 276 Green Bay W 86-58 83%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +18.9 +10.2 +9.6
  Sat, Dec 13 161 @Marshall L 74-76 42%     3 - 6 +1.1 +10.2 -9.4
  Tue, Dec 16 106 Miami (OH) W 75-74 50%    
  Mon, Dec 22 226 Eastern Michigan W 73-65 77%    
  Mon, Dec 29 149 Oakland W 81-78 62%    
  Thu, Jan 1 236 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-70 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 355 @IU Indianapolis W 89-77 87%    
  Fri, Jan 9 291 @Detroit Mercy W 74-69 69%    
  Sun, Jan 11 149 @Oakland L 78-81 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 166 Youngstown St. W 73-68 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 321 Cleveland St. W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 193 Northern Kentucky W 76-70 72%    
  Fri, Jan 30 236 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-73 58%    
  Sun, Feb 1 276 @Green Bay W 72-68 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 184 @Robert Morris L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-72 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 291 Detroit Mercy W 77-66 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 321 @Cleveland St. W 80-72 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 355 IU Indianapolis W 92-74 95%    
  Sun, Feb 22 184 Robert Morris W 73-67 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 @Northern Kentucky W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.0 8.2 6.1 2.9 0.7 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 8.1 6.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.1 4.3 0.9 0.1 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.0 8.9 12.4 15.0 16.0 14.2 10.6 6.6 2.9 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 99.4% 2.9    2.7 0.1
17-3 93.4% 6.1    5.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 77.5% 8.2    5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 49.1% 7.0    3.2 3.0 0.8 0.1
14-6 19.1% 3.1    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 18.2 7.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 58.4% 58.4% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 2.9% 46.1% 46.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5
17-3 6.6% 39.5% 39.5% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.0
16-4 10.6% 35.0% 35.0% 13.8 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.9
15-5 14.2% 29.2% 29.2% 14.2 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.1 10.1
14-6 16.0% 24.4% 24.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.2 12.1
13-7 15.0% 19.0% 19.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 12.1
12-8 12.4% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 10.5
11-9 8.9% 12.0% 12.0% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 7.9
10-10 6.0% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.5
9-11 3.6% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
8-12 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.1 7.6 7.0 2.7 77.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 2.9 63.2 33.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%