Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#167
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#195
Pace70.8#156
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#110
First Shot+4.2#72
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#272
Layup/Dunks+3.6#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#244
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-1.2#277

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#289
First Shot-3.3#292
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks-5.8#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#269
Freethrows+2.7#43
Improvement+1.2#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 7.2% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 51.3% 79.7% 50.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.3% 78.6% 64.0%
Conference Champion 2.5% 4.7% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.7% 1.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.5% 7.2% 4.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 48 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 179 South Alabama L 74-76 64%     0 - 1 -6.3 +6.3 -12.8
  Sat, Nov 8 161 Marshall L 73-85 59%     0 - 2 -14.9 -2.6 -12.2
  Tue, Nov 11 144 @Wright St. W 81-71 32%     1 - 2 +14.0 +14.6 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 15 291 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 82%     2 - 2 -3.2 +4.5 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 19 166 Youngstown St. W 92-75 61%     3 - 2 +13.5 +13.8 -1.4
  Mon, Nov 24 143 Troy W 75-68 43%     4 - 2 +8.1 +3.9 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 26 85 Belmont L 72-87 24%     4 - 3 -8.4 +0.2 -8.3
  Sat, Dec 6 149 @Oakland L 97-98 34%     4 - 4 +2.7 +12.0 -9.2
  Sat, Dec 13 184 @Robert Morris L 70-75 42%     4 - 5 -3.6 +0.0 -3.7
  Tue, Dec 16 12 @Michigan St. L 63-85 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 253 Western Michigan W 82-75 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 323 @Central Michigan W 80-74 71%    
  Tue, Jan 6 327 @Northern Illinois W 82-76 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 106 Miami (OH) L 80-82 44%    
  Tue, Jan 13 175 Ohio W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 @Kent St. L 83-88 31%    
  Tue, Jan 20 152 @Massachusetts L 79-83 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 124 Bowling Green L 77-78 49%    
  Tue, Jan 27 65 @Akron L 81-93 13%    
  Sat, Jan 31 306 Ball St. W 78-68 83%    
  Tue, Feb 3 131 Kent St. W 86-85 52%    
  Wed, Feb 11 253 @Western Michigan W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 124 @Bowling Green L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 226 Eastern Michigan W 78-72 71%    
  Tue, Feb 24 327 Northern Illinois W 85-73 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 175 @Ohio L 80-83 41%    
  Fri, Mar 6 216 Buffalo W 82-76 70%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 6.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.2 4.4 0.6 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.2 4.9 0.9 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.6 1.1 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.4 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.4 10.0 13.1 14.9 15.3 13.5 9.6 6.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 88.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 61.9% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 27.9% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 28.2% 28.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.3% 17.2% 17.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
14-4 3.1% 16.5% 16.5% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 6.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-6 9.6% 7.3% 7.3% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.9
11-7 13.5% 6.6% 6.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 12.6
10-8 15.3% 4.8% 4.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 14.5
9-9 14.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 14.5
8-10 13.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.0
7-11 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 6.4% 6.4
5-13 3.6% 3.6
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 95.5 0.0%