Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #164
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #182
Pace 70.1 #144
Improvement +0.2 #176

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #102 C+ C- B- C D+
Defense #277 D- C- B- A- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.14 #192 +1.2 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #52 0.87 #46 +4.2 #24
Three Pointers 31% #347 1.15 #26 -2.9 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #105 +2.6 #106
Freethrows 0.29 #229 77% #40 0.22 #168
Second Chance 30.9% #166 0.98 #272 0.30 #209
Turnovers 15.1% #101
Total Offense +2.8 #102

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.24 #285 -4.2 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #338 0.84 #299 +1.6 #73
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.13 #319 -3.2 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.8 #338
Freethrows 0.22 #13 70% #63 0.16 #13
Second Chance 33.7% #306 0.99 #107 0.33 #228
Turnovers 17.9% #84
Total Defense -3.2 #277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #280 2.1% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #75 9.0% #329
Possession Length 16.6 #103 17.4 #199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #53 0.21 #299
Improvement +0.0 #179 +0.1 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 4.5% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 60.7% 66.2% 33.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 92.0% 70.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.3% 4.5% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 192 South Alabama L 74 - 76 67% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ F+ C -14 F D- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 168 Marshall L 73 - 85 62% +1  0 - 2 -16 -3 C D D- -12 F A B+
 Tue, Nov 11 151 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 35% +4  1 - 2 +13 +12 B+ A+ F +2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 291 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 83% +4  2 - 2 -3 +3 B+ D+ F -7 D- C C
 Wed, Nov 19 221 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 72% +8  3 - 2 +10 +11 A- B- C+ -1 D+ F+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 113 Troy W 75 - 68 35% +2  4 - 2 +10 +4 C C C+ +6 B+ A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 78 Belmont L 72 - 87 23% -3  4 - 3 -8 -0 B- D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 135 @Oakland L 97 - 98 31% +1  4 - 4 +4 +12 B B+ C -9 D D F
 Sat, Dec 13 203 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 47% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F D- A+ -2 C A F
 Tue, Dec 16 7 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 2% -20  4 - 6 +1 +9 C C A+ -8 F+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 30 273 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 80% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +3 D- B D+ -7 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 302 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 68% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -2 +3 D- F A+ -5 D- B- D-
 Tue, Jan 6 310 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 70% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +8 -0 C+ F D+ +8 C- B- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 91 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 37% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -1 D+ D- C+ -10 F+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 13 214 Ohio W 101 - 85 71% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +10 +25 A+ A+ A- -16 F+ F C
 Fri, Jan 16 143 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 33% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +10 C+ B+ C- -8 D C F
 Tue, Jan 20 171 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 40% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 +0 +10 A- C- F -10 F D- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 145 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 57% -1  9 - 9 5 - 3 -1 +2 D B A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 62 @Akron L 81 - 91 13% -0  9 - 10 5 - 4 +2 +11 A+ D+ F+ -9 C+ F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 295 Ball St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Tue, Feb 3 143 Kent St. W 84 - 83 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 210 @James Madison L 77 - 78 49%
 Wed, Feb 11 273 @Western Michigan W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 145 @Bowling Green L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 242 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 71 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 310 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 @Ohio L 79 - 80 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 91 @Miami (OH) L 79 - 88 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 185 Buffalo W 82 - 78 66%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 +0 +3 C+ C- B- -3 D- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.3 9.5 4.3 0.5 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 12.0 15.8 5.5 0.4 35.3 4th
5th 0.4 6.7 10.5 2.3 0.0 19.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 7.1 2.0 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.5 3.9 1.8 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.4 17.3 25.5 24.4 15.2 5.2 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.8% 11.2% 11.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 5.2% 7.7% 7.7% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.8
12-6 15.2% 6.4% 6.4% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 14.2
11-7 24.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 23.2
10-8 25.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 24.4
9-9 17.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 16.9
8-10 8.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-11 2.7% 2.7
6-12 0.6% 0.6
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.0 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%