Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 #124
Pace 73.9 #56
Improvement -1.6 #261

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #71 C C+ B+ B B-
Defense #280 D+ C C- B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #27 1.16 #173 +4.0 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #199 0.71 #257 -0.9 #224
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.04 #150 -2.6 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #157 +0.5 #157
Freethrows 0.35 #54 75% #95 0.26 #43
Second Chance 31.2% #160 1.10 #110 0.34 #123
Turnovers 13.1% #19
Total Offense +5.0 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.30 #334 -1.1 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #112 0.93 #359 -2.6 #344
Three Pointers 42% #156 0.98 #136 +0.3 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #285 -3.4 #285
Freethrows 0.24 #25 72% #186 0.17 #28
Second Chance 33.3% #295 0.98 #87 0.32 #193
Turnovers 15.2% #253
Total Defense -3.4 #280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #102 -0.8% #103
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #177 7.5% #314
Possession Length 16.5 #95 16.8 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #24 0.14 #85
Improvement -2.6 #314 +1.0 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.9% 32.1% 27.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 98.7% 99.5% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.5% 74.4% 46.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.9% 32.1% 27.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 37 - 9
Quad 413 - 320 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 2% -27  0 - 1 -15 +12 A+ D A -23 F D+ F+
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  0 - 2 +13 +13 C+ A- A +1 B- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 4 @Houston L 45 - 78 3% -21  0 - 3 -9 -10 F+ F+ B -3 C+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 17 49 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 13% -5  0 - 4 +10 +12 C+ C A- -2 C C C
 Fri, Nov 21 242 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 62% -1  0 - 5 -7 +14 B+ B A+ -21 F B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 205 Lamar W 83 - 68 67% +4  1 - 5 +12 +9 D+ A+ B- +3 B- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 161 @Montana W 95 - 87 45% +4  2 - 5 +11 +15 A+ F+ B -5 D+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 79% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +2 +16 A- C+ A+ -14 D- C F+
 Sat, Dec 6 164 Toledo W 98 - 97 69% -1  4 - 5 -2 +10 C- B A+ -13 D F C
 Sat, Dec 13 114 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 32% -5  4 - 6 -6 -4 C C F -1 C B- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 179 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 50% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +7 +6 D D- A+ +0 C+ B- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 7 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  5 - 7 +12 +12 A C+ C -1 B+ B- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 151 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 43% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -12 -1 D- D D+ -11 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 221 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 59% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +1 +18 A B- A+ -16 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 203 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 76% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +21 C A A+ -3 C- B+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 321 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 90% +14  8 - 8 5 - 1 +12 +9 F+ A+ D+ +2 A+ D- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 151 Wright St. L 84 - 94 66% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -13 +5 C D A+ -17 F A A+
 Thu, Jan 15 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 63% +9  9 - 9 6 - 2 +11 -6 F B+ F +16 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Jan 18 244 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 62% +11  10 - 9 7 - 2 +23 +19 B+ A+ C- +6 C+ A- B-
 Wed, Jan 21 340 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 93% -8  10 - 10 7 - 3 -33 +1 F B- A -34 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 291 @Detroit Mercy W 95 - 87 72% +4  11 - 10 8 - 3 +4 +20 B C+ A+ -16 F C C+
 Wed, Jan 28 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 74 - 65 59% +1  12 - 10 9 - 3 +8 +2 D+ F+ A +7 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 179 Northern Kentucky W 87 - 81 71%
 Wed, Feb 4 321 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 82 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 221 Youngstown St. W 85 - 77 78%
 Sun, Feb 15 203 @Robert Morris W 80 - 79 56%
 Fri, Feb 20 244 Green Bay W 84 - 75 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87 - 78 81%
 Wed, Feb 25 340 @IU Indianapolis W 95 - 85 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 78 87%
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +2 +5 C C+ B+ -3 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 7.1 20.0 25.1 13.4 66.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.8 10.2 8.9 3.6 0.4 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.8 18.0 29.0 28.8 13.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 97.2% 13.4    12.1 1.3
16-4 87.4% 25.1    19.8 5.3 0.0
15-5 69.1% 20.0    12.2 7.5 0.4
14-6 39.3% 7.1    2.2 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 66.5% 66.5 46.3 18.1 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 13.8% 37.4% 37.4% 12.7 0.0 1.9 2.8 0.4 8.6
16-4 28.8% 34.9% 34.9% 13.4 0.7 4.7 4.2 0.5 18.7
15-5 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 13.8 0.1 2.4 4.9 1.2 20.3
14-6 18.0% 27.1% 27.1% 14.1 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.1 0.0 13.2
13-7 7.8% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.0 6.0
12-8 2.3% 17.4% 17.4% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
11-9 0.4% 11.6% 11.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.9% 30.9% 0.0% 13.6 69.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 12.7 0.8 36.5 54.9 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%