Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 #323
Pace 71.7 #99
Improvement +2.8 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #202 C+ D+ D- B+ C
Defense #360 D D- D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #312 1.09 #268 -4.1 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.66 #317 -2.8 #310
Three Pointers 50% #22 1.14 #29 +8.0 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #134 +1.1 #142
Freethrows 0.35 #43 76% #57 0.27 #29
Second Chance 25.9% #305 1.05 #164 0.27 #271
Turnovers 19.2% #333
Total Offense -1.3 #202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.35 #356 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #299 0.89 #346 +0.2 #168
Three Pointers 48% #28 1.02 #193 -3.6 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #321 -5.1 #324
Freethrows 0.28 #107 78% #357 0.22 #185
Second Chance 37.7% #357 1.09 #248 0.41 #348
Turnovers 14.0% #322
Total Defense -8.2 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #162 0.6% #222
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #138 8.9% #328
Possession Length 17.2 #151 16.7 #72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #91 0.22 #319
Improvement +1.0 #132 +1.8 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 4.9% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.7% 12.3% 31.0%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 12
Quad 45 - 107 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 280 @Loyola Chicago L 88 - 91 30% -2  0 - 1 -7 +10 C+ A- F -17 D C F
 Mon, Nov 10 61 @Northwestern L 63 - 110 3% -24  0 - 2 -35 -8 C C- F -24 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 143 Kent St. L 95 - 102 16% -2  0 - 3 -6 +14 A A+ F -19 D+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 253 Radford W 87 - 82 34% -9  1 - 3 -0 -3 C+ F D- +3 A- D- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Valparaiso L 75 - 90 28% -12  1 - 4 -19 +3 C D+ A- -22 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 143 @Kent St. L 71 - 91 11% -14  1 - 5 -16 -9 D+ D- F -5 F B- A-
 Fri, Nov 28 56 @Missouri L 59 - 86 3% -19  1 - 6 -14 -10 C- F F -4 C- F A
 Wed, Dec 3 179 @Northern Kentucky L 80 - 95 15% -8  1 - 7 0 - 1 -13 +5 B B F -19 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 291 Detroit Mercy L 59 - 71 53% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -22 -14 F C F -10 C- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 118 @UAB L 77 - 101 8% -7  1 - 9 -18 +3 A F D -20 F D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71 - 81 43% +0  1 - 10 0 - 3 -18 -1 F+ C A+ -18 D F+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 340 IU Indianapolis W 99 - 86 69% +10  2 - 10 1 - 3 -2 +9 B- D- B- -12 B- F+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 71 - 74 20% +4  2 - 11 1 - 4 -4 +1 F A+ D- -5 C C D
 Fri, Jan 9 135 @Oakland L 72 - 97 10% -14  2 - 12 1 - 5 -20 -7 F C+ C- -12 B F B
 Sun, Jan 11 291 @Detroit Mercy L 84 - 94 31% -11  2 - 13 1 - 6 -14 +2 B+ F F -15 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 244 Green Bay L 73 - 88 43% -2  2 - 14 1 - 7 -23 +4 B F+ D+ -28 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 221 Youngstown St. W 80 - 78 39% +1  3 - 14 2 - 7 -5 +5 A+ C- D- -10 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 151 @Wright St. W 85 - 79 12% -0  4 - 14 3 - 7 +9 +14 B+ D A- -4 B+ D- F
 Fri, Jan 30 244 @Green Bay L 74 - 82 23%
 Sun, Feb 1 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77 - 85 23%
 Wed, Feb 4 135 Oakland L 82 - 90 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 340 @IU Indianapolis L 88 - 89 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 203 Robert Morris L 75 - 79 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 151 Wright St. L 76 - 83 27%
 Wed, Feb 18 221 @Youngstown St. L 74 - 83 20%
 Sun, Feb 22 224 Purdue Fort Wayne L 79 - 82 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 179 Northern Kentucky L 80 - 85 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 @Robert Morris L 72 - 82 18%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -10 -1 C+ D+ D- -8 D D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 0.5 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.5 3.7 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 8.0 9.1 2.4 0.1 21.7 9th
10th 1.0 9.4 18.4 15.0 4.2 0.2 48.2 10th
11th 3.9 6.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.0 11th
Total 4.8 15.6 23.2 23.9 17.0 9.5 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.3% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 4.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
8-12 9.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.4
7-13 17.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.9
6-14 23.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.9
5-15 23.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.1
4-16 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-17 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8%