Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.4 #179
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #199
Pace 72.9 #75
Improvement +0.9 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #162 C C+ C- C B-
Defense #220 D+ D+ B C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.19 #130 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #277 0.65 #324 -2.4 #297
Three Pointers 44% #126 0.95 #270 -0.1 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #211 -0.9 #201
Freethrows 0.29 #241 75% #98 0.21 #197
Second Chance 30.7% #172 1.10 #109 0.34 #137
Turnovers 17.2% #231
Total Offense -0.1 #162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.18 #213 -0.7 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #175 0.89 #342 -1.0 #267
Three Pointers 41% #196 1.09 #284 -1.3 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #283 -3.0 #276
Freethrows 0.34 #291 70% #59 0.23 #249
Second Chance 33.1% #287 1.09 #261 0.36 #286
Turnovers 19.1% #49
Total Defense -1.4 #220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #95 0.1% #169
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #233 6.5% #303
Possession Length 16.0 #52 17.5 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #10 0.18 #230
Improvement +1.9 #87 -1.0 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 14.4% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 94.4% 97.9% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 95.1% 79.4%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.9% 14.4% 10.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Away) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 20 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 3% -18  0 - 1 -19 -6 D B+ D- -13 D- D C
 Wed, Nov 12 130 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 27% -8  0 - 2 -7 -9 F F+ F +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 302 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 65% +13  1 - 2 +19 +17 B+ A C- +3 C- F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 263 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 75% +4  2 - 2 +2 +1 D A- D+ +2 B- C- B
 Wed, Nov 26 211 Wofford W 93 - 83 67% +2  3 - 2 +4 +10 B- B A- -6 C C C
 Sat, Nov 29 283 Boston University W 74 - 65 79% -2  4 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F -2 D D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 321 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 85% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +2 +10 A- A F -8 F+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 47% +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -3 -2 D- D+ F -1 F A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 303 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 65% +6  6 - 3 -1 -2 D+ F+ C+ +0 D+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 135 Oakland L 77 - 82 50% -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -6 -4 D- C- B- -3 C+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 160 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 56% -4  6 - 5 -14 -4 C D+ F -9 F D- A-
 Mon, Dec 29 203 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 43% -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +4 C+ D- D+ -2 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 340 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 89% -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -6 -1 C D- B+ -4 C- F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 221 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 69% +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +8 +8 B+ B+ C -1 B+ B- F
 Fri, Jan 9 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 51% +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +16 +19 D A+ B- -1 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 244 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 51% -13  10 - 6 5 - 3 -4 +14 C F+ A+ -18 F D C-
 Thu, Jan 15 291 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 80% +12  11 - 6 6 - 3 +15 +10 A C- B- +3 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 203 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 66% -3  11 - 7 6 - 4 -9 -3 D+ D C- -5 C- D- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 151 @Wright St. L 80 - 88 32% -9  11 - 8 6 - 5 -5 +7 A C D -11 D C D
 Fri, Jan 30 291 @Detroit Mercy W 81 - 78 61%
 Sun, Feb 1 135 @Oakland L 81 - 87 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 244 Green Bay W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82 - 76 71%
 Thu, Feb 12 340 @IU Indianapolis W 89 - 82 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 75 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 @Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 321 @Cleveland St. W 85 - 80 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 Wright St. W 78 - 77 54%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 -1 +0 C C+ C- -1 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.6 0.4 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 11.7 11.6 2.1 0.0 28.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.5 9.8 1.4 0.0 23.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.2 8.0 1.5 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 5.7 1.6 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.5 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.8 15.4 23.1 24.0 17.9 7.3 1.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 71.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-6 21.1% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.4% 26.4% 26.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 7.3% 22.4% 22.4% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 5.6
13-7 17.9% 17.7% 17.7% 14.4 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 14.7
12-8 24.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.2 20.5
11-9 23.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.5 20.5
10-10 15.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 14.2
9-11 7.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 7.5
8-12 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
7-13 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.6 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.1 14.7 60.0 24.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%