Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#193
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#156
Pace71.5#131
Improvement+0.9#116

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#196
First Shot-2.2#236
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#110
Layup/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-5.4#338
After Offensive Rebounds+4.4#3
Layups/Dunks-0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#224
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#231
Freethrows-3.6#349
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 12.7% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 85.1% 92.2% 77.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 84.5% 63.0%
Conference Champion 9.6% 15.2% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round10.2% 12.5% 7.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 18 @Tennessee L 56-95 3%     0 - 1 -19.8 -6.6 -13.5
  Wed, Nov 12 123 @East Tennessee St. L 63-75 22%     0 - 2 -6.1 -9.0 +3.2
  Thu, Nov 20 323 @Central Michigan W 90-66 67%     1 - 2 +17.3 +15.4 +2.5
  Mon, Nov 24 260 Eastern Kentucky W 82-71 73%     2 - 2 +2.6 +2.1 +0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 246 Wofford W 93-83 71%     3 - 2 +2.2 +10.7 -9.1
  Sat, Nov 29 288 Boston University W 74-65 77%     4 - 2 -1.0 +1.8 -1.6
  Wed, Dec 3 321 Cleveland St. W 95-80 83%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +2.5 +11.7 -9.5
  Sat, Dec 6 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-79 44%     5 - 3 1 - 1 -2.6 -3.7 +1.2
  Sat, Dec 13 295 @Bellarmine W 80-76 59%     6 - 3 -0.4 +1.4 -1.7
  Wed, Dec 17 149 Oakland W 84-83 51%    
  Sun, Dec 21 170 College of Charleston W 75-73 57%    
  Mon, Dec 29 184 @Robert Morris L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 355 IU Indianapolis W 95-80 92%    
  Sun, Jan 4 166 Youngstown St. W 74-73 54%    
  Fri, Jan 9 236 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-77 47%    
  Sun, Jan 11 276 @Green Bay W 74-73 54%    
  Thu, Jan 15 291 Detroit Mercy W 79-71 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 184 Robert Morris W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 144 @Wright St. L 70-76 28%    
  Fri, Jan 30 291 @Detroit Mercy W 76-74 57%    
  Sun, Feb 1 149 @Oakland L 80-86 31%    
  Wed, Feb 4 276 Green Bay W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 236 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-74 68%    
  Thu, Feb 12 355 @IU Indianapolis W 92-83 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 166 @Youngstown St. L 71-76 34%    
  Wed, Feb 25 321 @Cleveland St. W 81-77 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 144 Wright St. L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.7 7.1 10.1 12.6 14.4 14.1 12.4 9.4 5.9 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 94.8% 1.4    1.2 0.2
16-4 77.9% 2.5    1.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
15-5 51.2% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 20.0% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 5.2 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 39.2% 39.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.4% 29.3% 29.3% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-4 3.2% 29.0% 29.0% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.3
15-5 5.9% 21.5% 21.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.7
14-6 9.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.0 7.6
13-7 12.4% 15.4% 15.4% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 10.5
12-8 14.1% 11.1% 11.1% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 12.5
11-9 14.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 13.3
10-10 12.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 12.0
9-11 10.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-12 7.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.9
7-13 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
6-14 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.1 1.6 89.6 0.0%