Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #226
Pace 70.4 #138
Improvement -1.7 #266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #206 D+ C+ B- D D+
Defense #278 C- C- C- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.07 #284 -3.6 #304
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.80 #117 +2.1 #76
Three Pointers 40% #196 0.95 #268 -1.8 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.3 #279
Freethrows 0.27 #290 67% #329 0.18 #322
Second Chance 32.9% #112 1.05 #165 0.35 #116
Turnovers 14.8% #80
Total Offense -1.5 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #26 1.18 #208 -4.4 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #229 0.80 #259 +0.2 #169
Three Pointers 36% #307 1.03 #210 +2.2 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #245 -1.9 #247
Freethrows 0.32 #230 74% #256 0.23 #247
Second Chance 29.9% #149 1.14 #297 0.34 #238
Turnovers 15.6% #226
Total Defense -3.2 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #288 1.4% #300
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.0% #258 2.3% #221
Possession Length 16.6 #101 18.0 #290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #71 0.22 #324
Improvement -2.2 #299 +0.5 #160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.9% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 10.5% 17.9% 5.0%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 73.2% 42.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.7% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round4.0% 5.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 412 - 514 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 235 Hampton W 90 - 86 60% +6  1 - 0 -3 +4 D+ B A+ -8 D- C+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 211 @Wofford L 76 - 86 33% -12  1 - 1 -10 -4 F+ F+ A -5 B- F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 92 - 72 69% +7  2 - 1 +10 +15 B- A+ B -4 C- D- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 31 @Indiana L 70 - 101 3% -13  2 - 2 -13 +3 A- C+ F+ -16 F F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 15 @Texas Tech L 63 - 80 2% -4  2 - 3 +4 +4 C- A+ D- -1 A- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 99 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 12% -1  2 - 4 -9 -8 F+ C+ C- -1 C A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 62 @Akron L 81 - 105 7% -13  2 - 5 -12 +2 F+ B+ B- -12 F B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 203 Robert Morris W 74 - 72 54% -1  3 - 5 1 - 0 -4 -4 C- F A +0 B A D-
 Sun, Dec 14 196 Indiana St. L 68 - 70 52% -1  3 - 6 -7 -2 F A A+ -5 F+ D A-
 Fri, Dec 19 180 South Dakota St. W 88 - 87 38% +1  4 - 6 -0 +16 B+ B+ B- -16 F+ F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 321 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 71 57% -0  5 - 6 2 - 0 +3 +8 D+ C+ A+ -4 A- D F
 Mon, Dec 29 224 Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 55 58% +19  6 - 6 3 - 0 +15 +4 F+ A+ F+ +12 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 30 39 @Wisconsin L 60 - 80 4% -14  6 - 7 -4 -10 F C- F +7 B- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 151 @Wright St. L 70 - 76 22% -7  6 - 8 3 - 1 -3 +3 D C- A+ -6 A- D F+
 Mon, Jan 5 244 @Green Bay L 76 - 79 38% -8  6 - 9 3 - 2 -5 +7 A+ F+ D- -12 F B D-
 Fri, Jan 9 179 Northern Kentucky L 67 - 85 49% -13  6 - 10 3 - 3 -22 -2 F+ C A+ -22 C+ F D-
 Sun, Jan 11 340 IU Indianapolis W 95 - 83 82% -0  7 - 10 4 - 3 -3 +14 A- A+ B- -17 D C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 135 Oakland L 60 - 73 37% -9  7 - 11 4 - 4 -14 -21 F C D +8 A+ F+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 224 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 82 - 100 35% -9  7 - 12 4 - 5 -19 +6 B- F B- -24 F F+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 203 @Robert Morris L 76 - 88 32% -7  7 - 13 4 - 6 -12 +2 B F B- -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 221 @Youngstown St. W 65 - 64 35% -1  8 - 13 5 - 6 +0 -5 D- C B +6 B- A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 30 151 Wright St. L 75 - 77 42%
 Sun, Feb 1 321 Cleveland St. W 85 - 77 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 291 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 179 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 82 29%
 Tue, Feb 10 340 @IU Indianapolis W 87 - 83 64%
 Sun, Feb 15 244 Green Bay W 76 - 73 61%
 Fri, Feb 20 291 @Detroit Mercy L 78 - 79 49%
 Sun, Feb 22 135 @Oakland L 78 - 87 19%
 Wed, Feb 25 221 Youngstown St. W 76 - 74 57%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 10 -5 -1 D+ C+ B- -3 C- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.4 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 6.9 3.8 0.3 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 7.2 7.2 1.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.4 6.8 11.2 2.8 0.1 21.2 6th
7th 0.2 5.1 12.2 4.6 0.3 22.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 6.6 3.0 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.9 0.1 5.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.0 14.0 22.9 24.7 18.6 9.0 2.5 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 33.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.4% 23.8% 23.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-7 2.5% 11.9% 11.9% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.2
12-8 9.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 8.1
11-9 18.6% 7.5% 7.5% 15.6 0.6 0.8 17.2
10-10 24.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 1.2 23.5
9-11 22.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 22.4
8-12 14.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.8
7-13 6.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-14 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.6 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%