North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#344
Expected Predictive Rating-13.6#340
Pace71.8#120
Improvement-3.0#342

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#348
First Shot-4.5#303
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#347
Layup/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#285
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-2.2#333

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#298
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#350
Layups/Dunks-2.6#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement-0.8#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 14.4% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 38.7% 30.3% 40.0%
First Four0.6% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Home) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 16 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     0 - 1 -8.6 -8.1 +1.1
  Thu, Nov 6 265 UC Riverside L 70-74 40%     0 - 2 -12.7 -8.6 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 9 217 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 32%     0 - 3 -14.6 +1.5 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 265 @UC Riverside W 76-74 20%     1 - 3 -0.7 -3.4 +2.6
  Wed, Nov 19 38 @Creighton L 60-75 1%     1 - 4 +0.4 -1.0 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 22 241 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 26%     1 - 5 -21.7 -18.6 -2.1
  Sun, Nov 23 355 @Western Illinois W 78-69 47%     2 - 5 -1.7 -3.1 +1.0
  Fri, Nov 28 110 @Hawaii L 55-92 6%     2 - 6 -30.5 -15.8 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 3 168 @Idaho L 58-90 11%     2 - 7 -29.8 -15.8 -14.3
  Sat, Dec 6 204 Montana L 75-79 30%     2 - 8 -9.9 -1.1 -8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 355 Western Illinois L 66-69 OT 70%     2 - 9 -19.7 -16.8 -2.8
  Thu, Dec 18 113 Winthrop L 72-84 13%    
  Sun, Dec 21 24 @Nebraska L 59-89 0.3%   
  Thu, Jan 1 300 Oral Roberts L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Jan 3 164 South Dakota St. L 70-78 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 231 @Nebraska Omaha L 69-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 347 @UMKC L 70-73 41%    
  Thu, Jan 15 131 St. Thomas L 68-78 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 274 South Dakota L 79-81 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 300 @Oral Roberts L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 314 @Denver L 76-81 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 131 @St. Thomas L 65-81 7%    
  Thu, Feb 5 231 Nebraska Omaha L 72-76 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 314 Denver W 79-78 52%    
  Wed, Feb 11 274 @South Dakota L 76-84 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 148 North Dakota St. L 69-78 20%    
  Thu, Feb 19 347 UMKC W 73-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 164 @South Dakota St. L 67-81 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 148 @North Dakota St. L 66-81 8%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.6 4.7 8.5 4.7 0.6 0.0 19.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 7.3 10.2 5.4 0.6 25.6 8th
9th 1.1 4.7 8.7 8.0 3.0 0.3 25.8 9th
Total 1.1 4.8 10.6 15.9 18.2 17.2 13.4 8.9 5.3 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 71.4% 0.0    0.0
12-4 17.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 13.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-6 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.4% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.1 0.4
10-6 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 1.2
9-7 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.7
8-8 5.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-9 8.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.8
6-10 13.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-11 17.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.1
4-12 18.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.2
3-13 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.9
2-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
1-15 4.8% 4.8
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%