Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#315
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#81
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#263
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#343
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 8.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.1 14.1 15.2
.500 or above 15.0% 49.3% 14.9%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 66.9% 29.4%
Conference Champion 2.9% 7.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 24.0% 5.6% 24.0%
First Four1.2% 0.0% 1.2%
First Round2.4% 8.8% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 18   @ Alabama L 71-99 0.4%   
  Nov 06, 2025 258   UC Riverside L 73-74 48%    
  Nov 09, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge L 77-82 34%    
  Nov 15, 2025 258   @ UC Riverside L 70-77 28%    
  Nov 19, 2025 24   @ Creighton L 62-89 1%    
  Nov 22, 2025 275   Coastal Carolina L 69-72 41%    
  Nov 23, 2025 339   @ Western Illinois L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 29, 2025 134   @ Hawaii L 65-78 12%    
  Dec 03, 2025 235   @ Idaho L 71-79 25%    
  Dec 06, 2025 189   Montana L 73-77 36%    
  Dec 13, 2025 339   Western Illinois W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 18, 2025 161   Winthrop L 79-84 33%    
  Dec 21, 2025 60   @ Nebraska L 65-86 4%    
  Jan 01, 2026 310   Oral Roberts W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 03, 2026 151   South Dakota St. L 74-80 30%    
  Jan 08, 2026 182   @ Nebraska Omaha L 71-81 19%    
  Jan 10, 2026 301   @ UMKC L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 15, 2026 148   St. Thomas L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 17, 2026 294   South Dakota W 87-85 56%    
  Jan 22, 2026 310   @ Oral Roberts L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 24, 2026 321   @ Denver L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 29, 2026 148   @ St. Thomas L 70-82 16%    
  Feb 05, 2026 182   Nebraska Omaha L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 07, 2026 321   Denver W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 11, 2026 294   @ South Dakota L 84-88 36%    
  Feb 14, 2026 208   North Dakota St. L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 19, 2026 301   UMKC W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 21, 2026 151   @ South Dakota St. L 71-83 16%    
  Feb 28, 2026 208   @ North Dakota St. L 68-77 23%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.4 4.4 0.9 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 6.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 16.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.6 8th
9th 1.1 3.1 5.1 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.9 9th
Total 1.1 3.2 6.4 9.7 12.2 13.1 13.1 11.6 10.1 7.5 5.3 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 97.6% 0.3    0.3 0.1
13-3 78.0% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-4 48.3% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 14.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 22.3% 22.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 36.1% 36.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.3% 37.8% 37.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-3 1.0% 24.0% 24.0% 15.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
12-4 1.8% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-5 3.4% 11.1% 11.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.0
10-6 5.3% 7.3% 7.3% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.9
9-7 7.5% 5.0% 5.0% 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.1
8-8 10.1% 3.3% 3.3% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.8
7-9 11.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.4 0.0 0.3 11.4
6-10 13.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.3 0.0 0.2 12.9
5-11 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.0
4-12 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
2-14 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
1-15 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
0-16 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%