Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 Florida 99.8%   4   14 - 6 5 - 2 +19.7      +10.0 17 +9.6 10 72.8 79 +16.5 24 +18.8 3
12 Vanderbilt 100.0%   3   18 - 3 5 - 3 +19.0      +10.7 12 +8.4 17 74.2 53 +20.0 12 +16.8 5
16 Alabama 99.1%   5   14 - 6 4 - 3 +17.9      +12.6 3 +5.4 48 82.2 4 +17.2 20 +14.3 10
19 Arkansas 99.7%   4   16 - 5 6 - 2 +17.1      +11.8 5 +5.3 49 75.9 32 +19.1 15 +19.7 2
20 Tennessee 97.0%   5   13 - 6 3 - 3 +17.1      +7.8 39 +9.3 14 66.2 255 +16.0 26 +16.4 6
25 Auburn 92.9%   6   13 - 7 4 - 3 +15.5      +10.3 14 +5.2 52 69.6 161 +16.3 25 +15.4 7
27 Kentucky 88.7%   6   14 - 7 5 - 3 +15.1      +7.6 43 +7.6 23 69.9 154 +15.2 32 +17.0 4
28 Georgia 93.3%   7   16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.9      +8.3 30 +6.5 35 83.5 3 +15.7 27 +15.4 8
30 Texas A&M 91.2%   7   16 - 4 6 - 1 +14.6      +8.2 33 +6.5 37 77.1 21 +15.1 33 +23.4 1
32 Texas 68.3%   9   11 - 8 3 - 4 +14.3      +10.8 11 +3.4 81 68.2 199 +11.3 53 +13.1 11
41 LSU 31.8%   13 - 7 1 - 6 +12.2      +7.8 37 +4.4 65 68.5 186 +10.5 58 +2.8 15
52 Oklahoma 4.5%   11 - 10 1 - 7 +10.1      +7.6 41 +2.5 107 68.5 191 +7.1 78 +1.8 16
54 Missouri 36.2%   11   14 - 7 4 - 4 +9.9      +6.6 50 +3.3 87 67.4 224 +12.4 47 +14.3 9
64 Mississippi 5.0%   11 - 9 3 - 4 +8.8      +4.0 84 +4.7 60 65.1 283 +8.0 72 +11.6 12
78 South Carolina 1.4%   11 - 9 2 - 5 +7.5      +3.9 86 +3.6 76 65.1 284 +5.7 88 +9.9 13
85 Mississippi St. 1.2%   10 - 10 2 - 5 +6.8      +2.6 108 +4.2 67 70.3 139 +6.8 83 +8.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 16 Alabama 73 20 Tennessee 79   
Sat, Jan 24 19 Arkansas 85 41 LSU 81   
Sat, Jan 24 54 Missouri 88 52 Oklahoma 87   
Sat, Jan 24 27 Kentucky 72 64 Mississippi 63   
Sat, Jan 24 25 Auburn 76 10 Florida 67   
Sat, Jan 24 28 Georgia 67 32 Texas 87   
Sat, Jan 24 78 South Carolina 69 30 Texas A&M 92   
Sat, Jan 24 85 Mississippi St. 56 12 Vanderbilt 88   
Tue, Jan 27 19 Arkansas 83 52 Oklahoma 79   
Tue, Jan 27 16 Alabama 90 54 Missouri 64   
Tue, Jan 27 27 Kentucky 55 12 Vanderbilt 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 28 Georgia 80 20 Tennessee 79 53%   
Wed, Jan 28 25 Auburn 82 32 Texas 78 66%   
Wed, Jan 28 41 LSU 80 85 Mississippi St. 71 79%   
Wed, Jan 28 10 Florida 79 78 South Carolina 70 81%   
Sat, Jan 31 25 Auburn 72 20 Tennessee 77 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 28 Georgia 90 30 Texas A&M 87 63%   
Sat, Jan 31 19 Arkansas 84 27 Kentucky 79 69%   
Sat, Jan 31 52 Oklahoma 79 32 Texas 80 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 85 Mississippi St. 72 54 Missouri 78 72%   
Sat, Jan 31 41 LSU 74 78 South Carolina 73 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 64 Mississippi 72 12 Vanderbilt 79 76%   
Sun, Feb 1 16 Alabama 85 10 Florida 90 68%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Florida 2.6 40.9 21.5 13.1 9.2 5.9 3.9 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 3.6 18.3 20.5 17.7 13.5 10.4 7.1 5.2 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Alabama 4.2 17.9 14.9 13.6 12.9 11.0 9.0 7.3 5.4 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 2.9 34.5 19.8 14.3 10.6 7.6 5.2 3.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 5.6 6.5 9.9 11.3 11.9 12.2 11.6 10.2 8.8 7.0 4.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Auburn 6.4 3.8 6.4 7.8 9.7 10.8 12.2 12.1 11.6 9.9 7.7 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 6.7 3.2 5.0 6.6 8.6 9.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 12.1 8.8 4.9 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Georgia 6.7 3.2 5.5 7.3 9.0 10.2 11.6 12.6 11.6 10.5 8.6 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Texas A&M 4.3 15.2 14.2 13.9 13.5 12.1 10.0 7.6 6.0 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas 8.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.1 6.8 9.1 10.6 13.0 13.7 13.6 10.0 6.5 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.1
LSU 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.7 9.0 12.9 18.0 17.1 13.5 9.4 6.5
Oklahoma 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.2 7.5 12.4 18.7 24.5 28.6
Missouri 9.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.9 4.3 6.3 9.1 13.0 16.1 18.4 13.2 7.6 3.8 1.6 0.4
Mississippi 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.4 5.4 8.8 14.7 20.5 19.4 13.0 7.6 3.1
South Carolina 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 4.4 8.0 12.8 17.6 21.5 18.4 13.0
Mississippi St. 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.6 6.4 10.5 15.0 20.1 22.5 18.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.7 12.0 19.2 24.1 21.3 11.7 3.4
Vanderbilt 12 - 6 25 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 10.9 20.3 24.0 21.9 12.7 3.5
Alabama 12 - 7 22 - 10 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.7 8.4 14.5 20.0 21.2 16.9 9.7 3.6 0.6
Arkansas 13 - 6 23 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 7.7 14.6 20.4 22.2 17.5 9.8 3.4 0.5
Tennessee 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.6 14.2 19.3 21.2 17.6 10.4 4.2 0.8
Auburn 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.4 11.0 18.9 21.9 19.8 12.8 6.0 1.8 0.3
Kentucky 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.2 1.7 6.0 13.4 20.9 22.7 18.5 10.9 4.5 1.0 0.2
Georgia 10 - 8 22 - 9 0.0 0.6 2.1 6.4 12.5 19.3 22.1 18.3 11.6 5.4 1.5 0.2
Texas A&M 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.0 16.2 21.3 20.9 15.9 8.5 3.2 0.9 0.1
Texas 9 - 9 17 - 13 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.8 12.4 19.8 21.8 18.9 12.0 5.3 1.5 0.1
LSU 6 - 12 18 - 13 0.2 1.2 4.4 10.6 18.0 21.3 19.9 14.2 6.8 2.7 0.7 0.1
Oklahoma 4 - 14 14 - 17 2.2 8.6 18.2 23.9 21.7 14.8 7.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Missouri 8 - 10 18 - 13 1.0 5.7 13.7 21.3 23.9 18.0 10.2 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
Mississippi 6 - 12 14 - 17 1.8 8.5 18.8 24.9 22.2 13.8 6.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 5 - 13 14 - 17 2.6 10.3 19.8 24.8 21.1 13.1 5.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mississippi St. 5 - 13 13 - 18 4.4 14.4 22.7 24.0 17.8 10.2 4.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida 40.9% 22.7 12.0 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 18.3% 6.7 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alabama 17.9% 7.6 5.9 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 34.5% 19.1 9.8 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee 6.5% 1.9 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Auburn 3.8% 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 3.2% 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 3.2% 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 15.2% 6.9 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas 0.8% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
LSU
Oklahoma
Missouri 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 0.0% 0.0 0.0
South Carolina
Mississippi St.


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida 99.8% 22.4% 77.4% 4   4.8 13.2 23.2 23.9 17.6 10.0 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Vanderbilt 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3   6.2 16.9 27.1 23.6 15.5 7.1 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Alabama 99.1% 13.1% 85.9% 5   1.7 6.4 16.6 21.7 22.4 15.0 7.6 3.6 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.9 98.9%
Arkansas 99.7% 12.2% 87.4% 4   1.1 5.2 17.1 24.3 23.8 16.1 7.4 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 99.6%
Tennessee 97.0% 9.5% 87.5% 5   0.8 2.9 8.9 14.6 19.8 19.5 14.1 7.6 4.1 2.6 2.0 0.0 3.0 96.7%
Auburn 92.9% 5.6% 87.3% 6   0.1 0.8 3.8 8.9 15.8 19.5 16.3 10.6 7.1 5.4 4.7 0.1 0.0 7.1 92.5%
Kentucky 88.7% 4.6% 84.0% 6   0.0 0.3 2.4 6.0 13.2 17.0 16.4 12.1 8.1 6.7 6.1 0.2 11.3 88.1%
Georgia 93.3% 4.6% 88.7% 7   0.1 0.4 2.1 5.4 12.0 17.5 19.6 15.8 10.4 6.9 3.3 0.0 6.7 93.0%
Texas A&M 91.2% 5.4% 85.8% 7   0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 10.5 16.0 19.2 17.3 11.9 7.0 2.9 0.0 8.8 90.7%
Texas 68.3% 3.1% 65.2% 9   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 7.8 12.4 12.1 10.2 10.1 9.7 0.3 0.0 31.7 67.3%
LSU 31.8% 0.7% 31.1% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.7 5.6 8.7 10.3 0.2 68.2 31.3%
Oklahoma 4.5% 0.1% 4.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 0.1 95.5 4.4%
Missouri 36.2% 0.4% 35.8% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.7 8.4 9.2 9.6 0.3 63.8 36.0%
Mississippi 5.0% 0.2% 4.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.1 95.0 4.9%
South Carolina 1.4% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.0 98.6 1.3%
Mississippi St. 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 98.8 1.2%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 3.0 20.6 44.1 27.3 4.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.8 0.0 0.3 5.8 28.5 44.3 18.8 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.6 19.2 31.6 27.2 11.8 1.9 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.4 0.3 4.4 18.2 32.8 28.4 12.4 3.0 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 83.1% 1.4 16.9 39.2 30.8 11.1 1.9 0.1 0.0
Final Four 48.9% 0.6 51.1 39.4 8.8 0.7 0.0
Final Game 23.0% 0.2 77.0 21.8 1.2
Champion 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 91.2% 57.1% 28.4% 13.5% 6.4% 2.7%
Vanderbilt 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.6% 57.8% 27.8% 12.7% 5.7% 2.3%
Alabama 99.1% 0.9% 98.8% 83.9% 44.9% 19.3% 8.3% 3.4% 1.4%
Arkansas 99.7% 0.3% 99.5% 83.5% 42.6% 17.1% 6.9% 2.5% 0.9%
Tennessee 97.0% 2.2% 96.2% 74.9% 35.3% 14.3% 6.0% 2.4% 0.8%
Auburn 92.9% 5.1% 90.8% 62.2% 23.9% 8.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Kentucky 88.7% 6.7% 85.9% 55.9% 20.2% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Georgia 93.3% 3.5% 91.8% 57.8% 19.9% 7.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Texas A&M 91.2% 3.1% 89.7% 54.9% 17.9% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Texas 68.3% 10.6% 63.8% 36.8% 11.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
LSU 31.8% 11.2% 26.9% 12.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Oklahoma 4.5% 2.6% 3.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri 36.2% 10.4% 30.4% 11.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 5.0% 2.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi St. 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%