Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 #73
Expected Predictive Rating +9.6 #62
Pace 68.8 #180
Improvement -0.1 #183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #31 B+ B+ B A- A-
Defense #188 C C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #41 1.15 #180 +3.4 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #352 0.84 #63 -4.0 #346
Three Pointers 46% #79 1.19 #11 +6.7 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.2 #34
Freethrows 0.35 #45 82% #2 0.29 #9
Second Chance 32.2% #136 1.28 #6 0.41 #35
Turnovers 14.1% #48
Total Offense +8.3 #31

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.20 #241 +0.0 #176
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.62 #12 +1.4 #88
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.07 #256 -1.6 #258
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.3 #188
Freethrows 0.27 #78 74% #293 0.20 #113
Second Chance 26.2% #42 1.21 #344 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.1% #203
Total Defense -0.6 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #12 -0.2% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.9% #63 0.8% #198
Possession Length 16.6 #109 17.9 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #136 0.13 #62
Improvement +0.8 #137 -0.9 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.8% 25.8% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 41.3% 45.8% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round24.5% 25.5% 20.2%
Second Round5.0% 5.4% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 311 - 314 - 7
Quad 410 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 111 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 65% +9  1 - 0 +21 +19 B+ A+ C +3 B D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 332 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 92% -2  2 - 0 -7 +8 D+ B- D+ -15 F D+ F+
 Mon, Nov 17 88 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 43% -3  2 - 1 +8 +9 C C A+ -0 A F+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 175 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 86% -2  3 - 1 +5 +14 A+ C- B+ -9 F B D
 Tue, Nov 25 249 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 88% +13  4 - 1 +25 +16 B+ A+ A +13 A+ B- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 108 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 64% +3  5 - 1 +7 +4 B D+ B- +3 A- D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 177 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 87% +14  6 - 1 +20 +27 A+ C A+ -7 F A- B+
 Wed, Dec 10 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 96% +16  7 - 1 +20 +27 A+ A+ B- -10 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 141 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 73% +13  8 - 1 +14 +9 A+ A+ F +5 A B+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 166 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 69% -3  9 - 1 +3 +10 B D+ A+ -7 D+ C- D-
 Mon, Dec 22 284 Denver W 90 - 85 94% +4  10 - 1 -5 -2 F+ C+ C+ -3 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 238 Rice W 97 - 48 91% +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +42 +27 A+ B C+ +19 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 140 @North Texas L 67 - 72 63% +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 -1 +10 C- A+ C+ -11 D+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 69 South Florida L 78 - 93 60% -8  11 - 3 1 - 2 -10 +4 C+ F+ B- -13 F+ D C
 Wed, Jan 14 172 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 71% +10  12 - 3 2 - 2 +14 +16 A+ C- D- -2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 118 @UAB W 99 - 77 57% +10  13 - 3 3 - 2 +28 +27 A+ C+ B+ +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 103 Memphis W 83 - 66 71% +3  14 - 3 4 - 2 +19 +20 C- A+ A+ -0 A- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 238 @Rice W 87 - 81 80% +13  15 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +17 C- A+ C+ -12 F F+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 140 North Texas W 75 - 66 81%
 Sun, Feb 1 100 Wichita St. W 79 - 73 70%
 Wed, Feb 4 102 @Florida Atlantic L 81 - 82 49%
 Sun, Feb 8 69 @South Florida L 82 - 85 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 118 UAB W 85 - 77 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 100 @Wichita St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 172 Charlotte W 82 - 70 86%
 Sun, Feb 22 343 Texas San Antonio W 90 - 68 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 174 @Tulane W 80 - 74 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 253 @East Carolina W 82 - 72 82%
 Sun, Mar 8 143 Temple W 82 - 72 81%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +8 +8 B+ B+ B -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 9.5 17.6 10.7 2.5 41.3 1st
2nd 0.3 6.7 12.5 4.1 0.3 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 9.3 2.9 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.0 3.0 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.4 0.2 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.3 11.8 20.2 25.0 21.7 11.0 2.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.5    2.5
15-3 97.5% 10.7    9.3 1.4 0.0
14-4 81.0% 17.6    9.8 6.9 0.9 0.0
13-5 38.1% 9.5    1.7 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.3% 41.3 23.2 12.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.5% 45.4% 37.6% 7.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 1.4 12.5%
15-3 11.0% 35.2% 33.7% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 2.9 0.9 7.1 2.3%
14-4 21.7% 30.0% 29.6% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 3.5 2.9 0.0 15.2 0.6%
13-5 25.0% 25.9% 25.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 2.4 4.0 0.1 18.5 0.1%
12-6 20.2% 21.1% 21.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.9 3.2 0.2 16.0 0.0%
11-7 11.8% 15.7% 15.7% 12.0 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.0
10-8 5.3% 9.8% 9.8% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.8
9-9 1.9% 7.0% 7.0% 12.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-10 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.8% 24.3% 0.5% 11.5 75.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 10.3 0.5 3.2 3.2 13.2 20.1 55.6 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 11.5% 10.9 1.0 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 12.2% 10.9 1.6 10.6