Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#83
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#41
Pace67.7#232
Improvement+1.2#97

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#51
First Shot+5.3#51
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#93
Layup/Dunks-1.3#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#21
Freethrows+2.8#41
Improvement+0.9#101

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#153
First Shot-0.7#208
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#110
Layups/Dunks-0.3#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#290
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement+0.3#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 25.1% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 95.1% 91.5%
Conference Champion 31.5% 34.6% 26.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 0.5%
First Round21.9% 24.2% 18.1%
Second Round5.5% 6.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 410 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 116 Rhode Island W 82-65 65%     1 - 0 +20.3 +17.9 +3.6
  Wed, Nov 12 300 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 86%     2 - 0 -3.8 +7.9 -11.7
  Mon, Nov 17 67 @Kansas St. L 83-84 34%     2 - 1 +10.3 +8.4 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 21 193 Austin Peay W 84-75 87%     3 - 1 +4.0 +13.8 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 25 188 San Jose St. W 81-51 80%     4 - 1 +28.3 +17.4 +15.2
  Wed, Nov 26 92 Northern Iowa W 63-60 56%     5 - 1 +8.7 +3.8 +5.2
  Sat, Dec 6 250 Missouri St. W 98-74 91%     6 - 1 +15.9 +25.6 -8.7
  Wed, Dec 10 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117-84 97%     7 - 1 +17.3 +26.7 -12.6
  Sat, Dec 13 132 New Mexico St. W 83-70 70%     8 - 1 +14.7 +11.4 +3.3
  Fri, Dec 19 145 @Western Kentucky W 81-78 63%    
  Mon, Dec 22 314 Denver W 90-71 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 210 Rice W 80-67 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 146 @North Texas W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 86 South Florida W 83-79 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 195 @Charlotte W 75-69 72%    
  Sun, Jan 18 110 @UAB W 78-77 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 76 Memphis W 78-76 59%    
  Sun, Jan 25 210 @Rice W 77-70 74%    
  Wed, Jan 28 146 North Texas W 73-64 80%    
  Sun, Feb 1 98 Wichita St. W 76-71 68%    
  Wed, Feb 4 118 @Florida Atlantic W 79-78 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 86 @South Florida L 80-82 41%    
  Wed, Feb 11 110 UAB W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 98 @Wichita St. L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Feb 18 195 Charlotte W 78-66 87%    
  Sun, Feb 22 286 Texas San Antonio W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Feb 25 207 @Tulane W 80-73 74%    
  Thu, Mar 5 287 @East Carolina W 81-70 84%    
  Sun, Mar 8 163 Temple W 84-74 82%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.8 9.4 7.0 3.0 0.7 31.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 8.1 6.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.6 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.5 8.9 11.7 14.5 15.8 15.1 11.4 7.2 3.0 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.8% 3.0    2.9 0.1
16-2 96.1% 7.0    6.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 82.1% 9.4    6.6 2.6 0.2
14-4 51.7% 7.8    3.3 3.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 20.6% 3.3    0.7 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.5% 31.5 20.3 8.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 77.6% 51.9% 25.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 53.5%
17-1 3.0% 60.5% 44.5% 15.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 28.7%
16-2 7.2% 45.0% 38.2% 6.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 0.4 4.0 11.1%
15-3 11.4% 34.8% 32.1% 2.7% 11.2 0.0 0.2 2.7 1.1 0.0 7.5 4.0%
14-4 15.1% 27.3% 26.6% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 2.1 1.9 0.1 10.9 0.9%
13-5 15.8% 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 1.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.2%
12-6 14.5% 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.0 0.1%
11-7 11.7% 12.9% 12.9% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.2
10-8 8.9% 8.1% 8.1% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.2
9-9 5.5% 6.8% 6.8% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-10 3.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-11 1.8% 4.0% 4.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-12 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 21.0% 1.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 9.9 9.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 77.4 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.0 2.4 3.6 19.3 20.5 21.7 10.8 4.8 8.4 7.2 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 60.0% 8.4 6.7 10.0 10.0 23.3 3.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 54.8% 10.1 3.2 6.5 19.4 25.8