Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.3 #32
Expected Predictive Rating +11.3 #53
Pace 68.2 #199
Improvement +3.4 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #11 B A+ B A C+
Defense #81 B- A- C- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.35 #18 +5.0 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.88 #42 +0.8 #134
Three Pointers 40% #200 1.00 #205 -0.8 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #52 +5.0 #52
Freethrows 0.40 #4 74% #134 0.29 #4
Second Chance 39.7% #11 1.21 #30 0.48 #6
Turnovers 13.8% #37
Total Offense +10.8 #11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #192 1.05 #59 +2.1 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.64 #25 -1.1 #274
Three Pointers 34% #349 1.10 #292 +2.3 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #75 +3.3 #74
Freethrows 0.32 #253 72% #155 0.23 #244
Second Chance 25.2% #26 0.90 #29 0.23 #13
Turnovers 15.3% #247
Total Defense +3.4 #81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #157 -1.8% #48
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #48 -4.6% #93
Possession Length 17.0 #136 18.4 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #9 0.12 #38
Improvement +2.3 #70 +1.1 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 3.7% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 13.4% 23.6% 8.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.3% 84.0% 60.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.3% 83.3% 59.0%
Average Seed 8.2 7.6 8.6
.500 or above 87.1% 95.8% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 78.2% 49.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four10.6% 7.9% 12.0%
First Round63.8% 80.6% 55.0%
Second Round36.8% 48.8% 30.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.0% 16.3% 8.3%
Elite Eight4.2% 6.4% 3.0%
Final Four1.2% 2.0% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 10
Quad 23 - 310 - 13
Quad 31 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 19% -5  0 - 1 +8 +2 D- A D- +6 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 316 Lafayette W 97 - 60 98% +18  1 - 1 +25 +21 C+ A+ C+ +4 B D+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  2 - 1 +20 +8 C+ B B +10 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 354 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  3 - 1 -1 -1 F C A+ +2 A- B F
 Tue, Nov 18 352 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  4 - 1 +18 +13 A+ F A +2 C+ A D+
 Mon, Nov 24 80 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 75% +2  4 - 2 +6 +9 A A+ F -3 C- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 24 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 44% +4  5 - 2 +21 +33 A+ A+ A+ -12 C+ F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 22 Virginia L 69 - 88 52% -6  5 - 3 -5 +6 C A A -13 C+ A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 254 Southern W 95 - 69 97% +17  6 - 3 +18 +18 A- A+ C -1 D A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 9 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 20% -6  6 - 4 +15 +6 C- A C+ +8 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 274 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  7 - 4 +33 +12 B- A+ D- +19 A+ A- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  8 - 4 +9 +16 A+ D B+ -7 D C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 85 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 84% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +1 +13 B+ A B- -12 C F+ C-
 Tue, Jan 6 20 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 29% -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +6 +12 B- A+ F -7 F+ C B
 Sat, Jan 10 16 @Alabama W 92 - 88 26% +5  9 - 6 1 - 2 +25 +24 A- A+ A+ +1 B- A D+
 Wed, Jan 14 12 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 43% +6  10 - 6 2 - 2 +32 +19 A+ A+ D- +14 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 30 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 60% -3  10 - 7 2 - 3 +8 +11 C D A+ -4 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 27 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 35% -3  10 - 8 2 - 4 +13 +17 C A+ A+ -4 B- A- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 28 Georgia W 87 - 67 59% +3  11 - 8 3 - 4 +32 +25 A+ A+ C +8 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 25 @Auburn L 78 - 82 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 52 @Oklahoma W 80 - 79 55%
 Tue, Feb 3 78 South Carolina W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Mississippi W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 54 @Missouri W 79 - 78 55%
 Tue, Feb 17 41 LSU W 81 - 76 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 28 @Georgia L 84 - 88 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 10 Florida L 79 - 81 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 30 @Texas A&M L 81 - 84 37%
 Wed, Mar 4 19 @Arkansas L 81 - 87 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 52 Oklahoma W 83 - 76 75%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +14 +11 B A+ B +3 B- A- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.3 3.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 1.6 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 4.5 0.3 6.8 5th
6th 0.5 5.7 2.8 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 6.8 0.6 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 8.1 3.6 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 5.6 7.2 0.5 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 2.6 8.4 2.6 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.7 5.2 3.9 0.2 10.0 11th
12th 0.1 2.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.0 5.8 12.4 19.8 21.8 18.9 12.0 5.3 1.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 76.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 38.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.5% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.3% 99.8% 8.6% 91.2% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 12.0% 99.3% 5.8% 93.5% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 18.9% 97.5% 3.9% 93.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.1 6.0 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.5 97.4%
9-9 21.8% 86.7% 2.6% 84.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.2 6.0 2.6 2.9 86.4%
8-10 19.8% 53.1% 1.5% 51.6% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.8 5.8 0.2 9.3 52.4%
7-11 12.4% 12.9% 0.6% 12.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.8 12.3%
6-12 5.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 0.9%
5-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.9 0.3%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.3% 3.1% 65.2% 8.2 31.7 67.3%