Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.9 #54
Expected Predictive Rating +12.4 #47
Pace 67.4 #224
Improvement -0.3 #196

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B B+ D+ C+ B-
Defense #87 B- B C C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.34 #23 +7.2 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #239 0.71 #249 -1.6 #262
Three Pointers 38% #234 1.08 #93 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.5 #44
Freethrows 0.35 #39 66% #336 0.23 #127
Second Chance 35.3% #53 1.21 #26 0.43 #28
Turnovers 17.8% #269
Total Offense +6.6 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.03 #42 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #62 0.71 #102 -1.0 #262
Three Pointers 46% #54 1.06 #249 -3.5 #316
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #93 +2.6 #94
Freethrows 0.28 #100 74% #266 0.21 #131
Second Chance 27.9% #88 0.96 #67 0.27 #60
Turnovers 17.0% #145
Total Defense +3.3 #87

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #76 -2.3% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #52 -2.8% #126
Possession Length 16.6 #108 18.7 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #62 0.14 #64
Improvement -2.3 #305 +2.0 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 40.9% 24.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.0% 40.6% 24.4%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 9.7
.500 or above 93.4% 97.6% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 41.5% 16.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.5% 6.3%
First Four10.4% 10.8% 9.4%
First Round30.4% 34.8% 19.2%
Second Round11.2% 12.9% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 71.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 55 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 14
Quad 49 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 276 @Howard W 88 - 67 89% +14  1 - 0 +18 +15 A A+ F+ +2 C- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 94% +2  2 - 0 -3 +6 A+ D- F -9 F A- A
 Sun, Nov 9 353 VMI W 106 - 68 98% +11  3 - 0 +22 +16 D+ A+ B +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 76 Minnesota W 83 - 60 70% +3  4 - 0 +28 +24 A+ A+ A- +7 B- A- B-
 Mon, Nov 17 345 Prairie View W 91 - 73 98% +19  5 - 0 +3 +4 C+ C+ C- -3 B C D-
 Thu, Nov 20 287 South Dakota W 102 - 68 96% +14  6 - 0 +24 +16 A+ B+ F +6 B F+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 359 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  7 - 0 +14 +17 F+ A+ B -3 B B- F+
 Fri, Nov 28 320 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 97% +19  8 - 0 +14 +3 C+ A+ F +12 B+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 81 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 49% +1  8 - 1 +5 +5 C+ C- D- +0 C A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 17 @Kansas L 60 - 80 15% -8  8 - 2 +1 +2 C C+ D+ -3 B+ D C
 Thu, Dec 11 318 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97% +11  9 - 2 -4 +16 A+ A+ C -20 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 248 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 94% +15  10 - 2 +14 +9 B+ A+ F +6 A- F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 5 Illinois L 48 - 91 15% -17  10 - 3 -22 -12 D- F+ F+ -16 B- F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 10 Florida W 76 - 74 26% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +19 +14 A+ B+ C+ +5 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 27 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 22% -0  12 - 3 2 - 0 +23 +11 A+ D C +12 B+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 64 @Mississippi L 69 - 76 43% +1  12 - 4 2 - 1 +5 +6 A+ D+ D+ -1 B C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 25 Auburn W 84 - 74 40% +4  13 - 4 3 - 1 +22 +17 A+ C- C- +6 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 41 @LSU L 70 - 78 31% -7  13 - 5 3 - 2 +7 +12 D+ A+ F+ -6 A F D-
 Tue, Jan 20 28 Georgia L 72 - 74 42% -2  13 - 6 3 - 3 +10 +7 B D+ B- +3 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 52 Oklahoma W 88 - 87 OT 61% -0  14 - 6 4 - 3 +8 +10 C A+ C- -2 D A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 16 @Alabama L 64 - 90 15% -12  14 - 7 4 - 4 -5 -5 F+ A D +2 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 85 Mississippi St. W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 78 @South Carolina L 72 - 73 47%
 Wed, Feb 11 30 @Texas A&M L 76 - 84 23%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Texas L 78 - 79 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 12 Vanderbilt L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 19 @Arkansas L 77 - 87 17%
 Tue, Feb 24 20 Tennessee L 71 - 75 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 85 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 @Oklahoma L 76 - 79 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Arkansas L 80 - 84 34%
Totals 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10 +7 B B+ D+ +3 B- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 0.9 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 3.6 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.1 1.8 9.1 8th
9th 0.5 5.9 6.2 0.5 13.0 9th
10th 0.1 3.7 9.7 2.6 0.0 16.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 10.0 6.2 0.3 18.4 11th
12th 0.5 5.7 6.2 0.9 13.2 12th
13th 0.0 1.8 4.8 0.9 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.3 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.8 14th
15th 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 1.0 5.7 13.7 21.3 23.9 18.0 10.2 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 36.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.4% 98.9% 3.5% 95.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
11-7 4.5% 94.6% 1.3% 93.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 94.5%
10-8 10.2% 85.1% 0.6% 84.4% 8.9 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.2 2.0 0.4 1.5 85.0%
9-9 18.0% 67.2% 0.6% 66.6% 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 4.9 2.6 5.9 67.0%
8-10 23.9% 32.9% 0.3% 32.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.2 0.2 16.0 32.7%
7-11 21.3% 7.7% 0.1% 7.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 19.6 7.5%
6-12 13.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 13.7 0.5%
5-13 5.7% 5.7
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.2% 0.4% 35.8% 9.4 63.8 36.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%