Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#18
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#49
Pace67.1#248
Improvement-2.6#330

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#34
First Shot-0.3#182
After Offensive Rebound+8.1#1
Layup/Dunks+1.6#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#140
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-1.3#291

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#12
First Shot+7.6#14
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#133
Layups/Dunks+4.2#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#89
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement-1.3#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.5% 2.3% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 5.7% 8.5% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 25.6% 33.4% 17.3%
Top 6 Seed 51.4% 61.6% 40.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.9% 91.3% 78.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.4% 90.3% 76.4%
Average Seed 5.9 5.5 6.5
.500 or above 95.0% 98.0% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 81.1% 72.0%
Conference Champion 10.8% 13.4% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four4.5% 3.3% 5.7%
First Round83.0% 90.0% 75.7%
Second Round62.5% 70.5% 54.2%
Sweet Sixteen30.0% 35.5% 24.2%
Elite Eight12.5% 15.0% 9.8%
Final Four5.3% 6.5% 4.1%
Championship Game2.1% 2.7% 1.5%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 169 Mercer W 76-61 96%     1 - 0 +11.1 +0.3 +10.8
  Sat, Nov 8 194 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 96%     2 - 0 +33.9 +20.3 +13.9
  Wed, Nov 12 344 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.4 +8.9 +6.8
  Mon, Nov 17 210 Rice W 91-66 97%     4 - 0 +18.9 +16.7 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 20 236 Tennessee St. W 89-60 97%     5 - 0 +21.9 +5.5 +13.0
  Mon, Nov 24 133 Rutgers W 85-60 90%     6 - 0 +26.7 +17.7 +10.2
  Tue, Nov 25 8 Houston W 76-73 36%     7 - 0 +22.9 +26.0 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 17 Kansas L 76-81 47%     7 - 1 +11.8 +14.3 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 2 68 @Syracuse L 60-62 69%     7 - 2 +9.1 -5.4 +14.4
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Illinois L 62-75 44%     7 - 3 +4.8 +3.6 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 16 10 Louisville W 78-77 51%    
  Sun, Dec 21 357 Gardner-Webb W 92-59 99.9%   
  Tue, Dec 30 360 South Carolina St. W 89-55 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 20 @Arkansas L 74-76 41%    
  Tue, Jan 6 41 Texas W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 13 @Florida L 72-77 33%    
  Tue, Jan 13 49 Texas A&M W 80-72 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 Kentucky W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 @Alabama L 81-85 34%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Georgia L 79-82 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 28 Auburn W 78-73 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 60 Mississippi W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 @Kentucky L 73-75 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 80 @Mississippi St. W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 LSU W 77-71 71%    
  Wed, Feb 18 44 Oklahoma W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 11 @Vanderbilt L 75-80 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 50 @Missouri W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 15 Alabama W 84-82 56%    
  Tue, Mar 3 87 @South Carolina W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Mar 7 11 Vanderbilt W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 4.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.6 4.7 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 5.3 1.1 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 2.2 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.3 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.9 6.5 9.5 12.4 14.0 14.6 13.2 10.0 6.7 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.3% 1.6    1.4 0.1
15-3 83.2% 3.0    2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 51.9% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
13-5 18.8% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.6% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 3.6% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.6 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.7% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 3.3 0.3 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.0% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 4.1 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 4.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.6% 99.8% 8.1% 91.7% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.8 4.1 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.0% 98.7% 5.1% 93.6% 6.9 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.2 4.2 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.6%
9-9 12.4% 92.6% 3.7% 88.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 92.3%
8-10 9.5% 71.0% 2.3% 68.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.8 0.1 2.8 70.3%
7-11 6.5% 34.3% 1.1% 33.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 4.3 33.5%
6-12 3.9% 8.1% 1.0% 7.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 7.3%
5-13 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.2%
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.9% 9.1% 75.8% 5.9 1.5 4.1 8.7 11.2 13.4 12.4 11.7 8.3 5.1 4.4 3.8 0.2 0.0 15.1 83.4%