Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.1 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +19.1 #15
Pace 75.9 #32
Improvement +1.7 #107

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #5 A- A- A B- C
Defense #49 B+ D C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.41 #6 +6.5 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #154 0.77 #149 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 37% #259 1.18 #15 +1.2 #142
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #14 +8.3 #14
Freethrows 0.33 #108 75% #91 0.25 #90
Second Chance 35.0% #58 1.28 #7 0.45 #16
Turnovers 12.2% #6
Total Offense +11.8 #5

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.09 #91 +2.0 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #114 0.69 #74 +0.1 #179
Three Pointers 41% #198 0.82 #6 +4.2 #37
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #28 +6.3 #27
Freethrows 0.24 #29 69% #33 0.16 #19
Second Chance 27.8% #84 1.37 #365 0.38 #321
Turnovers 17.6% #97
Total Defense +5.3 #49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #193 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.2% #8 -11.8% #23
Possession Length 14.8 #12 18.4 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.34 #2 0.15 #103
Improvement +2.4 #64 -0.8 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 8.2% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 47.7% 54.9% 32.4%
Top 6 Seed 87.6% 92.0% 78.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
Average Seed 4.7 4.4 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 97.3%
Conference Champion 34.5% 41.7% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.5% 99.9% 98.7%
Second Round83.5% 86.6% 76.9%
Sweet Sixteen42.6% 46.1% 35.2%
Elite Eight17.1% 18.9% 13.2%
Final Four6.9% 7.8% 4.9%
Championship Game2.5% 2.9% 1.8%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b6 - 210 - 10
Quad 25 - 115 - 10
Quad 32 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 254 Southern W 109 - 77 98% +21  1 - 0 +24 +19 B- B- A+ +0 B- D- D
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 27% -2  1 - 1 +21 +10 C A+ D- +11 A+ C B
 Tue, Nov 11 233 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 98% +16  2 - 1 +30 +12 A D+ A+ +16 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 239 Samford W 79 - 75 98% +8  3 - 1 -3 -2 C- F+ C -2 C C- C-
 Tue, Nov 18 124 Winthrop W 84 - 83 94% +1  4 - 1 +0 +8 C A A- -8 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 336 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  5 - 1 +40 +26 A+ B+ A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 3 Duke L 71 - 80 27% -1  5 - 2 +14 +10 B+ A- B +5 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 18 Louisville W 89 - 80 60% +10  6 - 2 +23 +15 D+ A+ A- +8 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 152 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 96% +15  7 - 2 +22 +7 A- C- A+ +13 A+ B- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 15 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 46% -2  8 - 2 +25 +32 A+ A+ A+ -6 C+ F+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 186 Queens W 108 - 80 97% +20  9 - 2 +23 +16 A A+ D- +4 B+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 20 4 Houston L 85 - 94 34% -10  9 - 3 +12 +19 A+ A A+ -6 D D C
 Mon, Dec 29 210 James Madison W 103 - 74 97% +17  10 - 3 +23 +25 A+ A+ B+ -2 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 20 Tennessee W 86 - 75 62% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +25 +16 B- A C +9 A- B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 64 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 70% +7  12 - 3 2 - 0 +19 +25 A+ A- B+ -6 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 25 @Auburn L 73 - 95 45% -15  12 - 4 2 - 1 -4 +5 C+ D+ A- -8 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 14 78 South Carolina W 108 - 74 88% +18  13 - 4 3 - 1 +39 +33 A+ A+ A+ +4 B+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 28 @Georgia L 76 - 90 47% -10  13 - 5 3 - 2 +4 -1 D+ A+ F+ +7 B F+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 12 Vanderbilt W 93 - 68 54% +15  14 - 5 4 - 2 +41 +31 A+ A+ A+ +11 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 41 LSU W 85 - 81 78% -1  15 - 5 5 - 2 +13 +17 A+ C B+ -3 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 52 @Oklahoma W 83 - 79 65% -2  16 - 5 6 - 2 +17 +15 B A- A+ +2 B C- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 27 Kentucky W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @Mississippi St. W 85 - 78 76%
 Tue, Feb 10 41 @LSU W 84 - 82 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 25 Auburn W 87 - 82 67%
 Tue, Feb 17 16 @Alabama L 91 - 95 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 16 @Alabama L 91 - 95 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 54 Missouri W 87 - 77 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 30 Texas A&M W 90 - 84 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 10 @Florida L 81 - 87 30%
 Wed, Mar 4 32 Texas W 87 - 81 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 54 @Missouri W 84 - 80 66%
Totals 23 - 9 13 - 6 +17 +12 A- A- A +5 B+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 7.1 13.4 9.4 3.4 0.5 34.5 1st
2nd 0.2 4.9 10.6 3.8 0.4 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 8.5 4.1 0.2 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 4.7 5.2 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 1.2 5.3 1.0 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 2.5 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.5 2.6 0.4 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.5 9th
10th 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 7.7 14.6 20.4 22.2 17.5 9.8 3.4 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.1
15-3 96.3% 9.4    7.7 1.6 0.1
14-4 76.8% 13.4    6.5 5.4 1.4 0.1
13-5 32.1% 7.1    1.1 2.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.5% 34.5 19.1 9.8 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 2.4 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.8% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.1 0.4 1.8 4.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.5% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 3.7 0.1 1.3 5.9 6.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.3 0.0 0.3 4.0 8.2 7.2 2.3 0.2 100.0%
12-6 20.4% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 5.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 7.9 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.6% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.2 5.5 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.7% 99.7% 4.1% 95.6% 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 3.1% 96.9% 2.4% 94.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.8%
8-10 0.8% 85.8% 1.2% 84.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 85.6%
7-11 0.2% 33.3% 3.3% 30.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 12.2% 87.4% 4.7 0.4 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 55.0 45.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 22.7 50.0 27.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 30.3 57.6 12.1