Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.7 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +16.5 #24
Pace 72.8 #79
Improvement +2.1 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #17 B- A+ C+ B B+
Defense #10 A- A+ C- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.34 #20 +7.7 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #344 0.93 #18 -2.6 #307
Three Pointers 44% #122 0.87 #336 -1.6 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #79 +3.5 #79
Freethrows 0.36 #23 72% #207 0.26 #38
Second Chance 43.9% #2 1.10 #109 0.48 #5
Turnovers 15.4% #118
Total Offense +10.0 #17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 0.93 #5 +5.5 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #3 0.70 #92 -3.6 #360
Three Pointers 31% #361 1.00 #156 +5.2 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #14 +7.1 #14
Freethrows 0.28 #102 70% #67 0.19 #87
Second Chance 20.8% #2 0.72 #2 0.15 #2
Turnovers 15.7% #219
Total Defense +9.6 #10

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #16 -3.3% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #119 -10.9% #28
Possession Length 15.6 #41 18.2 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #12 0.11 #24
Improvement +3.2 #37 -1.1 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.8% 5.5% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 17.9% 20.3% 8.2%
Top 4 Seed 65.0% 69.5% 47.2%
Top 6 Seed 92.6% 94.6% 84.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Average Seed 4.0 3.8 4.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 98.2%
Conference Champion 40.9% 45.7% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round91.2% 92.6% 85.5%
Sweet Sixteen57.1% 59.1% 49.4%
Elite Eight28.4% 29.7% 23.1%
Final Four13.5% 14.2% 10.6%
Championship Game6.4% 6.9% 4.6%
National Champion2.7% 3.0% 1.6%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 310 - 9
Quad 25 - 116 - 10
Quad 33 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 33% -1  0 - 1 +18 +14 A- B+ C +5 B+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 348 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  1 - 1 +25 +5 F A+ F +15 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 106 Florida St. W 78 - 76 95% +1  2 - 1 +3 -6 D+ F+ D +9 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 39 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 75% +7  3 - 1 +27 +8 B B B- +17 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 205 Merrimack W 80 - 45 98% +24  4 - 1 +29 +11 D+ A+ C +20 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 44 TCU L 80 - 84 78% +2  4 - 2 +8 +8 C- A+ F -0 B- B- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 67 Providence W 90 - 78 85% +9  5 - 2 +20 +12 D+ A+ A +7 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66 - 67 26% -5  5 - 3 +25 +11 C+ A+ C +14 A- A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 9 Connecticut L 73 - 77 49% -2  5 - 4 +16 +14 A+ D B- +2 C A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 65 George Washington W 80 - 70 85% +8  6 - 4 +19 +7 A D+ C +11 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 355 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  7 - 4 +24 +18 A A+ D +4 B A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 209 Colgate W 90 - 60 98% +17  8 - 4 +24 +20 B+ A+ C+ +6 C A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 235 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  9 - 4 +15 +12 B- A+ F +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 54 @Missouri L 74 - 76 74% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +11 +8 C C A+ +3 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 28 Georgia W 92 - 77 77% +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +27 +15 B+ A- B +10 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 20 Tennessee W 91 - 67 71% +10  11 - 5 2 - 1 +38 +21 A+ A+ A +16 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 52 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 74% +16  12 - 5 3 - 1 +30 +26 A- A+ A+ +4 C+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 12 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 41% +2  13 - 5 4 - 1 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -5 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 41 LSU W 79 - 61 84% +10  14 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +13 C A+ C +15 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 25 Auburn L 67 - 76 75% -8  14 - 6 5 - 2 +3 +3 C C- B +0 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 78 @South Carolina W 79 - 70 80%
 Sun, Feb 1 16 Alabama W 90 - 85 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Texas A&M W 83 - 81 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 28 @Georgia W 86 - 84 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Kentucky W 81 - 73 76%
 Tue, Feb 17 78 South Carolina W 82 - 67 92%
 Sat, Feb 21 64 @Mississippi W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 32 @Texas W 81 - 79 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Arkansas W 87 - 81 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 85 Mississippi St. W 84 - 68 93%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 @Kentucky W 78 - 76 56%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +20 +10 B- A+ C+ +10 A- A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 8.6 17.0 11.3 3.4 40.9 1st
2nd 0.2 5.2 11.5 4.2 0.5 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 7.8 3.7 0.2 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 4.2 4.5 0.4 9.2 4th
5th 0.9 4.1 0.9 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 1.9 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.4 1.8 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.7 12.0 19.2 24.1 21.3 11.7 3.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.1
15-3 96.1% 11.3    9.4 1.8 0.1
14-4 79.5% 17.0    8.5 6.8 1.5 0.1
13-5 35.5% 8.6    1.5 3.2 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.9% 40.9 22.7 12.0 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 11.7% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 2.4 1.9 4.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 21.3% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 3.1 1.1 4.5 8.6 5.6 1.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 24.1% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 3.8 0.3 2.2 7.1 8.9 4.6 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 19.2% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 4.6 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.1 6.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.0% 100.0% 12.9% 87.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.0 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.7% 99.6% 8.3% 91.3% 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 2.0% 97.3% 6.1% 91.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.1%
8-10 0.5% 86.4% 4.9% 81.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 85.7%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 22.4% 77.4% 4.0 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.3 69.7 29.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.8 41.6 39.8 15.9 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.9 30.6 46.3 21.1 2.0