Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#28
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#17
Pace69.9#172
Improvement+0.6#144

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#13
First Shot+9.5#10
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+1.2#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#106
Freethrows+5.0#7
Improvement+0.2#157

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#63
First Shot+3.9#56
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows+2.7#40
Improvement+0.3#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 2.0% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 4.4% 8.1% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.1% 34.7% 18.6%
Top 6 Seed 48.7% 63.9% 42.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.2% 91.5% 77.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.2% 90.9% 76.0%
Average Seed 6.2 5.5 6.5
.500 or above 89.6% 96.3% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 73.6% 63.9%
Conference Champion 6.4% 8.5% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.0% 2.2%
First Four7.1% 5.0% 7.9%
First Round78.1% 89.4% 73.6%
Second Round54.7% 66.6% 50.0%
Sweet Sixteen23.7% 31.4% 20.6%
Elite Eight8.5% 11.7% 7.3%
Final Four2.8% 4.2% 2.3%
Championship Game0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Purdue (Neutral) - 28.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 13
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 223 Bethune-Cookman W 95-90 OT 96%     1 - 0 -1.6 +7.1 -9.4
  Thu, Nov 6 273 Merrimack W 95-57 97%     2 - 0 +29.1 +22.3 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 11 244 Wofford W 93-62 97%     3 - 0 +23.3 +14.6 +8.1
  Sun, Nov 16 8 Houston L 72-73 30%     3 - 1 +18.9 +13.7 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 19 316 Jackson St. W 112-66 98%     4 - 1 +33.9 +27.9 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 66 Oregon W 84-73 72%     5 - 1 +19.3 +14.6 +4.7
  Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72-102 13%     5 - 2 -3.1 +12.3 -15.0
  Wed, Nov 26 16 St. John's W 85-74 39%     6 - 2 +28.3 +24.8 +4.0
  Wed, Dec 3 29 North Carolina St. W 83-73 63%     7 - 2 +21.1 +13.4 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 3 @Arizona L 68-97 15%     7 - 3 -3.5 +3.7 -5.5
  Sat, Dec 13 225 Chattanooga W 92-78 94%     8 - 3 +10.3 +15.1 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 20 7 Purdue L 73-79 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 191 Queens W 92-73 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 19 @Georgia L 83-88 33%    
  Tue, Jan 6 49 Texas A&M W 84-77 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 20 Arkansas W 81-79 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 50 @Missouri W 81-80 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 South Carolina W 80-69 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 60 @Mississippi W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 13 @Florida L 76-82 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 41 Texas W 82-76 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 18 @Tennessee L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Alabama L 88-89 50%    
  Tue, Feb 10 11 Vanderbilt L 82-83 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 @Arkansas L 78-82 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 80 @Mississippi St. W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 21 Kentucky W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 44 @Oklahoma W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 60 Mississippi W 79-71 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 35 LSU W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 15 @Alabama L 85-91 29%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 4.7 1.0 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 4.0 0.5 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 5.1 1.3 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.1 0.2 7.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.4 1.7 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.1 12.1 14.1 14.3 13.2 10.8 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.6    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 82.1% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.3% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.3% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.1% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.1% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.7 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.8% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.2% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.3 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.3% 99.6% 3.9% 95.7% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 14.1% 97.3% 2.2% 95.0% 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.0 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 97.2%
8-10 12.1% 83.4% 1.4% 82.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.7 0.1 2.0 83.2%
7-11 9.1% 46.3% 0.6% 45.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 4.9 46.0%
6-12 6.1% 11.8% 0.4% 11.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.4 11.4%
5-13 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.9%
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 81.2% 5.4% 75.8% 6.2 1.0 3.4 7.7 11.1 13.4 12.1 9.1 6.3 5.3 5.4 5.9 0.5 0.0 18.8 80.2%