Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#21
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#62
Pace73.0#84
Improvement-0.8#235

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#36
First Shot+7.3#23
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+8.1#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#162
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement-1.2#283

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#15
First Shot+6.4#28
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#81
Layups/Dunks+5.2#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+0.4#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 5.1% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 18.1% 25.9% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 39.6% 51.6% 30.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.3% 84.3% 66.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.1% 82.6% 64.3%
Average Seed 6.5 6.0 6.9
.500 or above 87.2% 94.1% 81.9%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 77.0% 67.5%
Conference Champion 8.1% 10.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.9% 1.5%
First Four6.6% 5.2% 7.7%
First Round71.7% 82.2% 63.7%
Second Round52.0% 62.5% 44.0%
Sweet Sixteen24.1% 30.4% 19.2%
Elite Eight9.7% 12.5% 7.5%
Final Four3.7% 4.8% 2.8%
Championship Game1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: St. John's (Neutral) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 31 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 258 Nicholls St. W 77-51 98%     1 - 0 +17.6 +1.6 +16.1
  Fri, Nov 7 212 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     2 - 0 +41.8 +25.9 +12.7
  Tue, Nov 11 10 @Louisville L 88-96 27%     2 - 1 +13.8 +15.6 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 14 333 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     3 - 1 +32.4 +24.9 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 18 12 Michigan St. L 66-83 41%     3 - 2 +0.9 +3.2 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 338 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     4 - 2 +27.9 +4.1 +22.6
  Wed, Nov 26 265 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 98%     5 - 2 +41.4 +23.9 +15.6
  Tue, Dec 2 22 North Carolina L 64-67 63%     5 - 3 +9.2 +3.4 +5.5
  Fri, Dec 5 5 Gonzaga L 59-94 28%     5 - 4 -13.2 -4.3 -8.7
  Tue, Dec 9 349 NC Central W 103-67 99%     6 - 4 +20.6 +22.0 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 27 Indiana W 72-60 64%     7 - 4 +23.8 +8.4 +16.0
  Sat, Dec 20 16 St. John's L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Dec 23 295 Bellarmine W 90-64 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 15 @Alabama L 84-89 32%    
  Wed, Jan 7 50 Missouri W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Jan 10 80 Mississippi St. W 81-70 85%    
  Wed, Jan 14 35 @LSU L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 18 @Tennessee L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Jan 21 41 Texas W 81-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 60 Mississippi W 78-69 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 11 @Vanderbilt L 78-84 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 @Arkansas L 77-80 39%    
  Wed, Feb 4 44 Oklahoma W 82-75 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 18 Tennessee W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 13 @Florida L 75-80 31%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 Georgia W 86-83 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 28 @Auburn L 78-80 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 87 @South Carolina W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 11 Vanderbilt W 82-81 51%    
  Tue, Mar 3 49 @Texas A&M W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Mar 7 13 Florida W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.4 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 4.1 0.4 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 5.3 1.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.8 2.9 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.5 0.1 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 5.1 8.0 11.1 14.1 14.3 14.2 12.0 8.2 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 99.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 84.0% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.1
14-4 54.2% 2.8    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.6% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.1 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.8 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 3.5 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.2% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 4.3 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.8 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.0% 99.9% 13.5% 86.5% 5.2 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.6 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-7 14.2% 99.2% 8.7% 90.5% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 3.9 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 14.3% 95.5% 4.6% 90.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 95.3%
9-9 14.1% 80.4% 3.4% 77.0% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.3 0.0 2.8 79.8%
8-10 11.1% 44.1% 2.2% 41.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 42.8%
7-11 8.0% 13.9% 1.2% 12.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 12.9%
6-12 5.1% 2.3% 0.7% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.7%
5-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 74.3% 7.8% 66.5% 6.5 0.7 2.4 5.9 9.1 10.9 10.7 9.8 7.4 5.9 5.5 5.8 0.4 0.0 25.7 72.1%