Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.1 #27
Expected Predictive Rating +15.2 #32
Pace 69.9 #154
Improvement -2.2 #292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #43 B- A- B B- C+
Defense #23 B+ B+ C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.30 #46 +4.1 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #225 0.70 #267 -1.5 #259
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.04 #144 +0.7 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #80 +3.4 #80
Freethrows 0.33 #101 74% #138 0.24 #96
Second Chance 35.7% #46 1.21 #27 0.43 #25
Turnovers 14.4% #65
Total Offense +7.6 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.05 #58 +5.2 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #49 0.70 #96 -1.3 #291
Three Pointers 42% #161 0.89 #39 +2.3 #107
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #30 +6.2 #30
Freethrows 0.28 #94 74% #265 0.20 #122
Second Chance 26.4% #46 0.88 #21 0.23 #18
Turnovers 17.3% #113
Total Defense +7.6 #23

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #124 -2.1% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #87 -10.2% #33
Possession Length 15.4 #29 18.9 #351
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 #3 0.10 #21
Improvement -1.6 #267 -0.6 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.8% 16.2% 5.3%
Top 6 Seed 39.1% 56.9% 30.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.7% 96.4% 85.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.1% 96.2% 84.4%
Average Seed 7.0 6.2 7.4
.500 or above 98.4% 99.9% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 91.9% 72.5%
Conference Champion 3.2% 7.6% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.7% 2.8% 8.5%
First Round85.9% 95.2% 81.6%
Second Round55.9% 68.1% 50.1%
Sweet Sixteen20.2% 27.1% 17.0%
Elite Eight7.3% 9.8% 6.1%
Final Four2.6% 3.7% 2.1%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 24 - 212 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 260 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 97% +15  1 - 0 +18 +0 C F B+ +17 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 169 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 95% +31  2 - 0 +44 +27 A+ C- A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 18 @Louisville L 88 - 96 30% -8  2 - 1 +12 +16 A A+ C -3 A- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 312 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  3 - 1 +34 +28 A+ A+ D+ +8 B A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 6 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 30% -11  3 - 2 +4 +5 C- C+ A -1 D A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 323 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  4 - 2 +29 +5 C C B- +23 A+ A- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 337 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  5 - 2 +36 +21 A+ A+ B- +13 A+ B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 2 29 North Carolina L 64 - 67 63% +2  5 - 3 +9 +1 C D+ C+ +7 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 11 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 33% -21  5 - 4 -15 -5 F A- A -10 F+ B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 9 342 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ B A- +0 C B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 31 Indiana W 72 - 60 64% -0  7 - 4 +24 +6 F+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 21 St. John's W 78 - 66 42% +3  8 - 4 +29 +14 B- A+ D+ +15 A+ B A-
 Tue, Dec 23 302 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98% +8  9 - 4 +3 +20 A+ A- C -16 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 16 @Alabama L 74 - 89 29% -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 +6 C A D+ -0 C B+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Missouri L 68 - 73 78% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 -1 C C- D+ +3 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 85 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 85% +4  10 - 6 1 - 2 +28 +24 A+ A+ C+ +5 C B A+
 Wed, Jan 14 41 @LSU W 75 - 74 50% -8  11 - 6 2 - 2 +16 +12 C+ B+ B- +5 D+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 20 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 32% -7  12 - 6 3 - 2 +22 +26 A- A+ A -4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 32 Texas W 85 - 80 65% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +16 +15 B- B+ A- +1 A+ B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 64 Mississippi W 72 - 63 81% +3  14 - 6 5 - 2 +15 +6 F A+ C +9 A+ B- B
 Tue, Jan 27 12 @Vanderbilt L 55 - 80 25% -18  14 - 7 5 - 3 -3 -8 F C+ D +5 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Arkansas L 79 - 84 32%
 Wed, Feb 4 52 Oklahoma W 81 - 73 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 20 Tennessee W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 10 @Florida L 73 - 81 24%
 Tue, Feb 17 28 Georgia W 84 - 81 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 @Auburn L 76 - 79 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 78 @South Carolina W 75 - 70 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 Vanderbilt L 78 - 79 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 30 @Texas A&M L 79 - 81 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 10 Florida L 76 - 78 44%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +15 +8 B- A- B +8 B+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.2 3.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 2.1 0.1 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 4.4 0.6 6.6 3rd
4th 0.3 5.3 2.9 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 6.7 0.6 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 7.4 3.9 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.8 7.9 0.8 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 7.9 3.8 0.0 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 4.5 6.6 0.6 12.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 5.3 1.9 0.0 8.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.9 0.1 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 1.7 6.0 13.4 20.9 22.7 18.5 10.9 4.5 1.0 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
14-4 91.0% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 38.8% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.0% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.5% 99.9% 14.6% 85.3% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 10.9% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 5.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 100.0%
11-7 18.5% 99.8% 6.3% 93.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.9 6.5 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.8%
10-8 22.7% 99.2% 3.5% 95.6% 6.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.8 7.7 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.2%
9-9 20.9% 95.0% 2.4% 92.6% 8.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 5.6 5.2 3.3 0.9 1.1 94.9%
8-10 13.4% 72.3% 1.0% 71.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.0 4.2 0.1 3.7 72.0%
7-11 6.0% 24.8% 0.9% 23.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 4.5 24.1%
6-12 1.7% 4.4% 4.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 4.4%
5-13 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.7% 4.6% 84.0% 7.0 11.3 88.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%