LSU
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +10.5 #58
Pace 68.5 #186
Improvement -4.1 #332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #37 B A- B B+ C+
Defense #65 B- B+ C- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.29 #54 +5.6 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.83 #81 +0.4 #159
Three Pointers 37% #279 1.07 #106 -1.3 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #56 +4.6 #60
Freethrows 0.34 #62 78% #19 0.27 #32
Second Chance 34.6% #70 1.27 #9 0.44 #21
Turnovers 14.3% #54
Total Offense +7.8 #37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.07 #74 +3.8 #61
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #145 0.71 #98 +0.2 #172
Three Pointers 44% #97 0.99 #147 -0.9 #221
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #83 +3.0 #82
Freethrows 0.28 #125 66% #9 0.19 #66
Second Chance 28.2% #95 0.88 #19 0.25 #32
Turnovers 15.2% #249
Total Defense +4.4 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 -0.8% #104
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #58 -5.2% #81
Possession Length 16.5 #99 18.5 #332
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #104 0.11 #26
Improvement -2.1 #296 -2.0 #300

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 35.4% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.3% 34.8% 18.5%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.0
.500 or above 94.3% 96.8% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.3% 12.4% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 10.1% 30.9%
First Four11.2% 11.8% 8.8%
First Round26.9% 30.2% 14.5%
Second Round12.5% 14.2% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.4% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 28 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 187 Tarleton St. W 96 - 60 94% +19  1 - 0 +31 +24 A+ A+ D+ +8 A+ B+ F+
 Mon, Nov 10 219 New Orleans W 93 - 58 95% +17  2 - 0 +29 +11 B C+ A +16 A+ A F
 Thu, Nov 13 181 Florida International W 98 - 81 93% +10  3 - 0 +13 +13 C+ A+ B -2 B- C+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 350 Alcorn St. W 107 - 81 99% +7  4 - 0 +11 +23 D A+ B -14 D- F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 250 Nebraska Omaha W 99 - 73 96% +16  5 - 0 +18 +12 A+ D- C- +3 C+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 148 Drake W 71 - 62 86% +9  6 - 0 +10 +1 C+ F A+ +9 A A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 92 DePaul W 96 - 63 73% +23  7 - 0 +39 +30 A+ A+ D- +10 B A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 130 @Boston College W 78 - 69 OT 76% +4  8 - 0 +14 +6 D+ C+ B +7 B- B+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 15 Texas Tech L 58 - 82 28% -18  8 - 1 -6 -9 F D+ A +3 B- A- A
 Sat, Dec 13 36 SMU W 89 - 77 43% +7  9 - 1 +26 +28 A+ A+ C -1 C B- C+
 Fri, Dec 19 266 SE Louisiana W 78 - 65 96% +12  10 - 1 +4 +15 A+ D- A+ -9 C+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 345 Prairie View W 104 - 90 99% +2  11 - 1 -1 +18 C- A- B+ -20 F C C
 Mon, Dec 29 262 Southern Miss W 90 - 62 96% +14  12 - 1 +20 +14 C+ B+ A+ +5 A A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 30 @Texas A&M L 72 - 75 30% -4  12 - 2 0 - 1 +15 +5 C B- D+ +10 B- A A+
 Tue, Jan 6 78 South Carolina L 68 - 78 77% -16  12 - 3 0 - 2 -5 +4 C C F -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 12 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 84 18% -11  12 - 4 0 - 3 +11 +9 B+ C+ C +3 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 27 Kentucky L 74 - 75 50% +8  12 - 5 0 - 4 +11 +11 A+ B- C- +0 B B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 54 Missouri W 78 - 70 69% +7  13 - 5 1 - 4 +15 +17 C- A+ A+ -1 A+ D+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 10 @Florida L 61 - 79 16% -10  13 - 6 1 - 5 +5 +2 C- A C- +2 B+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 19 @Arkansas L 81 - 85 22% +1  13 - 7 1 - 6 +16 +17 C+ A+ A- -0 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 85 Mississippi St. W 80 - 72 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 78 @South Carolina W 75 - 73 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 28 Georgia W 84 - 83 51%
 Tue, Feb 10 19 Arkansas L 82 - 84 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 20 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 23%
 Tue, Feb 17 32 @Texas L 76 - 81 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 16 Alabama L 85 - 88 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 64 @Mississippi W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 52 Oklahoma W 80 - 75 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 25 @Auburn L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 30 Texas A&M W 81 - 80 52%
Totals 18 - 13 6 - 12 +12 +8 B A- B +4 B- B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.3 2.2 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 5.5 0.9 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.7 7.5 3.6 0.1 12.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 8.2 7.7 1.0 0.0 18.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 6.0 8.9 1.6 0.0 17.1 13th
14th 0.2 3.2 7.7 2.3 0.1 13.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.5 4.7 2.9 0.2 9.4 15th
16th 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 16th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.4 10.6 18.0 21.3 19.9 14.2 6.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 98.5% 3.7% 94.9% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
10-8 2.7% 98.7% 2.8% 95.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 98.7%
9-9 6.8% 91.0% 2.6% 88.3% 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.6 90.7%
8-10 14.2% 73.7% 1.4% 72.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.4 2.6 0.0 3.7 73.4%
7-11 19.9% 42.5% 0.7% 41.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.0 0.1 11.4 42.1%
6-12 21.3% 13.4% 0.4% 13.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 0.1 18.4 13.1%
5-13 18.0% 2.3% 0.2% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 17.6 2.1%
4-14 10.6% 10.6
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 31.8% 0.7% 31.1% 9.6 68.2 31.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%