Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#11
Expected Predictive Rating+21.8#11
Pace74.1#61
Improvement-1.0#254

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#5
First Shot+9.9#8
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#59
Layup/Dunks+6.2#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#51
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-2.0#319

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#32
First Shot+3.5#62
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#22
Layups/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows-2.5#322
Improvement+0.9#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.3% 0.9%
#1 Seed 12.3% 14.0% 6.6%
Top 2 Seed 33.1% 36.6% 21.7%
Top 4 Seed 71.7% 75.4% 59.5%
Top 6 Seed 90.1% 92.0% 83.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.3% 98.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% 99.1% 97.8%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 92.6% 87.6%
Conference Champion 27.0% 28.9% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.4%
First Round98.8% 99.1% 97.7%
Second Round87.7% 89.5% 81.6%
Sweet Sixteen55.7% 58.0% 48.2%
Elite Eight27.5% 29.5% 20.9%
Final Four12.7% 13.7% 9.2%
Championship Game5.4% 5.9% 3.6%
National Champion2.3% 2.5% 1.6%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 211 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 020 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 142 Lipscomb W 105-61 96%     1 - 0 +42.1 +25.7 +13.7
  Sat, Nov 8 57 @Central Florida W 105-93 71%     2 - 0 +24.5 +30.1 -6.3
  Wed, Nov 12 257 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +21.7 +9.8 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.5%    4 - 0 +13.3 +18.4 -6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 306 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +23.8 +25.2 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 145 Western Kentucky W 83-78 94%     6 - 0 +5.8 +0.0 +5.1
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 76%     7 - 0 +25.9 +16.7 +8.2
  Fri, Nov 28 38 St. Mary's W 96-71 72%     8 - 0 +37.2 +27.2 +9.2
  Wed, Dec 3 39 SMU W 88-69 81%     9 - 0 +28.0 +21.0 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 13 283 Central Arkansas W 83-72 99%     10 - 0 +1.5 +2.0 -1.3
  Wed, Dec 17 76 @Memphis W 84-76 77%    
  Sun, Dec 21 51 @Wake Forest W 84-79 66%    
  Mon, Dec 29 337 New Haven W 89-57 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 87 @South Carolina W 81-72 80%    
  Tue, Jan 6 15 Alabama W 93-89 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 35 LSU W 85-77 78%    
  Wed, Jan 14 41 @Texas W 82-79 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 13 Florida W 83-80 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 20 @Arkansas L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 80 @Mississippi St. W 84-76 76%    
  Tue, Jan 27 21 Kentucky W 84-78 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 60 @Mississippi W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 44 Oklahoma W 87-77 82%    
  Tue, Feb 10 28 @Auburn W 83-82 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 49 Texas A&M W 88-78 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 50 @Missouri W 85-81 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 18 Tennessee W 80-75 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 19 Georgia W 91-86 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 21 @Kentucky L 81-82 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 60 Mississippi W 83-71 86%    
  Sat, Mar 7 18 @Tennessee L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.2 8.2 5.4 2.3 0.5 27.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 6.9 5.1 1.7 0.2 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.9 4.4 0.9 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.3 1.2 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.6 1.9 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.9 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.2 6.8 10.0 12.9 15.1 15.0 13.3 9.9 5.6 2.3 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.1
16-2 96.5% 5.4    4.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 82.6% 8.2    5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 54.6% 7.2    3.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.5% 2.9    0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 16.8 7.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 51.1% 48.9% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.6% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.6 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.9% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.8 3.4 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.3% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.3 2.5 5.6 4.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.8 1.2 4.4 6.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.1% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.4 0.3 2.1 5.7 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.9% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 4.1 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 100.0%
10-8 10.0% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.9 0.1 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.8% 99.9% 4.7% 95.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 4.2% 99.0% 2.8% 96.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
7-11 2.6% 94.4% 1.8% 92.6% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.3%
6-12 1.1% 78.9% 0.6% 78.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 78.7%
5-13 0.5% 39.6% 0.6% 39.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 39.2%
4-14 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 8.3%
3-15 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 4.3%
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 17.7% 81.3% 3.6 12.3 20.9 22.5 16.1 11.1 7.3 3.7 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 98.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5