Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.0 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +20.0 #12
Pace 74.2 #53
Improvement -2.7 #305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 A- B- A- B- C+
Defense #17 A- B+ B D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.38 #9 +4.2 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #238 0.81 #104 -0.7 #214
Three Pointers 44% #126 1.14 #33 +4.2 #53
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #17 +7.7 #17
Freethrows 0.32 #135 78% #16 0.25 #86
Second Chance 31.7% #152 1.19 #37 0.38 #70
Turnovers 12.6% #11
Total Offense +10.7 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.04 #50 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #45 0.74 #144 -1.8 #314
Three Pointers 40% #203 0.84 #10 +4.0 #41
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #17 +7.0 #18
Freethrows 0.33 #281 75% #318 0.25 #298
Second Chance 25.4% #28 0.96 #65 0.24 #29
Turnovers 19.2% #48
Total Defense +8.4 #17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -2.0% #39
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.2% #15 -11.8% #19
Possession Length 15.3 #27 17.9 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #45 0.10 #15
Improvement -3.7 #347 +0.9 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
#1 Seed 6.2% 7.6% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 23.1% 27.0% 11.0%
Top 4 Seed 73.8% 79.1% 57.5%
Top 6 Seed 96.4% 97.9% 91.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 99.3% 94.7%
Conference Champion 18.3% 22.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round92.6% 93.8% 88.9%
Sweet Sixteen57.8% 59.8% 52.0%
Elite Eight27.8% 29.6% 22.4%
Final Four12.7% 13.6% 9.8%
Championship Game5.7% 6.2% 4.0%
National Champion2.3% 2.5% 1.4%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b8 - 211 - 6
Quad 28 - 019 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 167 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 97% +29  1 - 0 +40 +25 A+ F A+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 49 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 69% +12  2 - 0 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -6 D C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 258 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 99% +19  3 - 0 +22 +9 A F C+ +12 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 325 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99% +16  4 - 0 +16 +18 C A+ A+ -4 B- B C
 Thu, Nov 20 308 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 99% +24  5 - 0 +23 +23 A- A+ B -2 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 95% +6  6 - 0 +4 -0 C+ D+ F+ +4 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 79% +10  7 - 0 +25 +13 A+ C F +11 A+ B- B
 Fri, Nov 28 42 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 75% +13  8 - 0 +37 +26 A+ A+ A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 36 SMU W 88 - 69 78% +9  9 - 0 +30 +21 A+ C A+ +10 A+ D- A
 Sat, Dec 13 233 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 98% +15  10 - 0 +4 +1 F+ A+ C +2 A- C C
 Wed, Dec 17 103 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 85% +3  11 - 0 +15 -2 D- D F+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 68 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 77% +19  12 - 0 +42 +27 A+ D+ A +14 A+ A A+
 Mon, Dec 29 333 New Haven W 96 - 53 99% +24  13 - 0 +29 +21 A+ B+ A- +9 A- A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 78 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 79% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +23 +22 A+ B- A- +2 A- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 16 Alabama W 96 - 90 65% +5  15 - 0 2 - 0 +21 +12 B- B+ A+ +8 A+ D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 41 LSU W 84 - 73 82% +11  16 - 0 3 - 0 +20 +12 B D+ A+ +8 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 32 @Texas L 64 - 80 57% -6  16 - 1 3 - 1 +1 -0 C F+ C +1 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 10 Florida L 94 - 98 59% -2  16 - 2 3 - 2 +13 +26 A+ B+ A+ -13 C F D
 Tue, Jan 20 19 @Arkansas L 68 - 93 46% -15  16 - 3 3 - 3 -5 +5 F A B+ -11 D C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 85 @Mississippi St. W 88 - 56 81% +20  17 - 3 4 - 3 +42 +16 A+ B- B +24 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 27 Kentucky W 80 - 55 75% +18  18 - 3 5 - 3 +37 +13 B B A +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 64 @Mississippi W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 52 Oklahoma W 86 - 74 87%
 Tue, Feb 10 25 @Auburn W 82 - 81 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 30 Texas A&M W 87 - 80 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 54 @Missouri W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 Tennessee W 78 - 73 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 28 Georgia W 90 - 83 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Kentucky W 79 - 78 54%
 Wed, Mar 4 64 Mississippi W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 @Tennessee L 75 - 76 46%
Totals 25 - 6 12 - 6 +19 +11 A- B- A- +8 A- B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.9 8.5 3.2 18.3 1st
2nd 0.2 5.3 10.8 3.8 0.3 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 10.5 4.7 0.4 17.7 3rd
4th 0.3 6.7 6.2 0.5 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 7.5 1.4 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 3.3 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.5 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 1.5 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.2 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 10.9 20.3 24.0 21.9 12.7 3.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 91.2% 3.2    2.4 0.8 0.1
14-4 66.7% 8.5    3.5 3.8 1.1 0.1
13-5 27.0% 5.9    0.8 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 6.7 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.7% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.2 2.6 5.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 21.9% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.8 1.5 6.2 9.4 4.3 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 24.0% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.5 0.4 2.7 9.0 8.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 20.3% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 4.2 0.1 0.6 4.1 7.4 6.2 1.8 0.2 100.0%
10-8 10.9% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.8% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 5.9 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.5% 99.7% 6.0% 93.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 0.3% 97.1% 4.4% 92.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.6 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.3 65.1 34.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.6 46.2 46.9 6.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.8 34.5 54.5 10.9