Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#89
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#111
Pace69.8#178
Improvement+5.2#3

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#119
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#88
Layup/Dunks+8.9#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#317
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.3#215

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#209
Layups/Dunks+1.8#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#68
Freethrows-0.2#208
Improvement+5.5#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.1% 58.6% 49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 11.9 12.7
.500 or above 98.2% 99.5% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.3% 98.1%
Conference Champion 70.8% 77.9% 68.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round52.0% 58.5% 49.7%
Second Round9.2% 13.6% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.0% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 38 - 39 - 6
Quad 413 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 61 @Boise St. L 77-101 27%     0 - 1 -11.7 +7.2 -17.4
  Sat, Nov 15 153 @Fresno St. L 74-75 62%     0 - 2 +1.9 +2.5 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 19 133 UC Irvine W 79-72 75%     1 - 2 +5.9 +11.0 -5.1
  Tue, Nov 25 150 South Dakota St. W 75-52 72%     2 - 2 +22.9 +4.0 +19.0
  Wed, Nov 26 221 Samford W 89-45 82%     3 - 2 +40.3 +8.8 +29.4
  Wed, Dec 3 57 @San Diego St. L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Dec 6 140 @Bowling Green W 72-70 57%    
  Wed, Dec 10 230 Idaho St. W 75-62 89%    
  Sat, Dec 13 141 UC Santa Barbara W 75-70 68%    
  Wed, Dec 17 229 Weber St. W 81-68 88%    
  Mon, Dec 29 136 California Baptist W 73-66 75%    
  Thu, Jan 1 195 @Tarleton St. W 76-71 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 252 @Abilene Christian W 71-63 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 331 Southern Utah W 85-66 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 281 Utah Tech W 77-62 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 184 Texas Arlington W 76-65 83%    
  Wed, Jan 21 331 @Southern Utah W 82-69 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 136 @California Baptist W 70-69 55%    
  Thu, Jan 29 195 @Tarleton St. W 76-71 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 252 Abilene Christian W 74-60 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 184 Texas Arlington W 76-65 83%    
  Thu, Feb 12 281 @Utah Tech W 74-65 81%    
  Thu, Feb 19 136 California Baptist W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 184 @Texas Arlington W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 195 Tarleton St. W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 252 Abilene Christian W 74-60 89%    
  Thu, Mar 5 331 @Southern Utah W 82-69 86%    
  Sat, Mar 7 281 @Utah Tech W 74-65 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.0 11.9 16.2 16.2 12.6 5.5 70.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.1 5.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.6 11.7 15.3 17.5 16.4 12.6 5.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.5    5.5
17-1 100.0% 12.6    12.6
16-2 99.0% 16.2    15.7 0.6
15-3 93.0% 16.2    14.1 2.1 0.0
14-4 77.6% 11.9    8.5 3.2 0.2
13-5 51.5% 6.0    3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-6 23.5% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0
11-7 4.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 70.8% 70.8 60.3 9.3 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.5% 76.0% 75.1% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 3.4%
17-1 12.6% 69.8% 69.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
16-2 16.4% 65.0% 65.0% 12.3 1.2 5.7 3.3 0.5 5.7
15-3 17.5% 57.3% 57.3% 12.7 0.3 4.1 4.4 1.1 0.1 7.5
14-4 15.3% 51.9% 51.9% 12.9 0.0 2.2 4.0 1.6 0.1 7.4
13-5 11.7% 43.6% 43.6% 13.3 0.8 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.6
12-6 8.6% 33.3% 33.3% 13.6 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.7
11-7 5.7% 27.0% 27.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.2
10-8 3.3% 16.3% 16.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.8
9-9 1.7% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
8-10 0.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.1% 52.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.1 18.8 17.2 7.0 1.5 0.2 47.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 7.9 0.8 6.4 11.3 15.1 12.5 7.5 17.0 15.1 12.5 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 15.9% 10.1 4.5 11.4