Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Liberty 70.2%   12   15 - 5 9 - 1 22 - 6 16 - 2 +8.2      +3.0 89 +5.1 48 61.1 341 +5.8 88 +8.3 2
150 Kennesaw St. 8.2%   14 - 6 9 - 1 19 - 9 14 - 4 +0.9      +0.7 150 +0.2 166 70.5 112 +5.4 91 +8.6 1
171 Florida Gulf Coast 5.8%   13 - 9 4 - 6 18 - 12 9 - 9 0.0      +0.5 158 -0.5 191 66.1 242 +1.5 141 -5.5 10
193 Eastern Kentucky 3.6%   11 - 9 7 - 3 16 - 12 12 - 6 -1.2      -0.2 180 -1.0 210 76.1 29 +0.6 156 +2.5 3
194 Lipscomb 3.7%   10 - 10 5 - 5 14 - 14 9 - 9 -1.3      -0.6 196 -0.7 199 72.7 72 -2.6 221 -3.2 7
197 Jacksonville 3.3%   9 - 9 5 - 5 14 - 12 10 - 8 -1.4      -1.2 215 -0.2 180 57.5 362 +0.5 158 -1.9 5
199 Stetson 3.3%   9 - 10 6 - 4 14 - 13 11 - 7 -1.5      +3.7 73 -5.1 319 61.7 332 +0.4 159 +0.8 4
221 Queens 2.0%   12 - 8 5 - 5 15 - 13 8 - 10 -2.8      +2.9 94 -5.6 326 71.3 98 -0.4 176 -4.5 9
253 Bellarmine 0.0%   7 - 13 5 - 5 11 - 17 9 - 9 -4.8      -1.4 221 -3.4 273 57.5 361 -4.1 246 -2.1 6
257 Jacksonville St. 0.7%   7 - 13 3 - 7 10 - 18 6 - 12 -5.1      -2.2 245 -2.9 260 63.7 298 -6.6 287 -9.1 12
282 North Florida 0.4%   6 - 14 3 - 7 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.5      +0.7 151 -7.2 350 70.2 117 -7.2 292 -7.2 11
291 North Alabama 0.2%   10 - 10 5 - 5 13 - 15 8 - 10 -6.9      -0.9 204 -6.0 333 69.5 136 -2.8 223 -4.1 8
315 Austin Peay 0.1%   5 - 15 2 - 8 8 - 20 5 - 13 -8.2      -5.1 318 -3.1 268 63.1 313 -9.5 322 -11.6 14
338 Central Arkansas 0.0%   6 - 16 2 - 8 8 - 22 4 - 14 -10.9      -5.2 319 -5.7 329 78.6 13 -9.0 314 -11.3 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Liberty 1.2 85.0 14.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 1.8 28.7 61.6 7.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0 0.0 0.6 9.5 15.3 19.0 18.0 15.0 10.7 6.6 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 3.5 1.6 15.2 42.7 22.6 9.9 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 6.1 0.0 1.0 9.6 14.8 18.4 17.2 13.8 10.7 7.7 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 5.4 0.0 2.4 17.3 18.4 19.3 14.8 11.1 7.9 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Stetson 4.2 0.3 7.5 33.6 25.5 14.6 8.8 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Queens 7.8 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 8.5 12.3 15.2 17.0 17.7 13.6 6.2 2.1 0.4 0.0
Bellarmine 7.3 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.5 11.8 15.8 17.4 16.7 13.5 9.4 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.7 9.3 14.9 24.6 24.8 11.8 3.5
North Florida 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.5 9.1 14.8 26.0 22.6 11.9 2.9
North Alabama 8.4 0.1 1.4 3.2 6.1 9.3 12.4 15.3 18.3 19.0 9.9 4.1 0.7 0.0
Austin Peay 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.7 13.2 21.4 32.9 22.6
Central Arkansas 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.0 7.1 15.3 29.7 44.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 16 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 11.8 26.1 35.4 22.4
Kennesaw St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.6 3.2 10.5 20.2 27.4 23.4 12.0 2.7
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.0 15.9 26.6 28.0 17.3 4.5
Eastern Kentucky 12 - 6 0.1 1.2 5.6 15.7 26.5 27.5 17.1 5.7 0.6
Lipscomb 9 - 9 0.2 1.8 7.0 17.2 25.3 25.4 16.3 5.8 0.8
Jacksonville 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.7 11.8 21.0 25.9 21.8 11.0 2.6
Stetson 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.4 10.8 21.9 27.5 22.8 10.6 2.3
Queens 8 - 10 1.6 8.5 20.6 27.9 23.6 12.6 4.4 0.8 0.1
Bellarmine 9 - 9 0.6 4.8 14.9 26.2 27.8 17.5 6.8 1.3 0.1
Jacksonville St. 6 - 12 2.8 12.0 23.5 26.8 20.2 10.5 3.4 0.6 0.1
North Florida 6 - 12 2.9 11.4 22.1 26.3 20.9 11.2 4.0 1.0 0.1
North Alabama 8 - 10 3.2 13.3 25.4 27.4 18.9 8.8 2.5 0.4 0.0
Austin Peay 5 - 13 5.0 17.0 27.6 26.3 15.9 6.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
Central Arkansas 4 - 14 11.6 28.5 30.8 19.3 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 85.0% 70.3 14.1 0.6 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 28.7% 14.4 13.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 1.6% 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Queens 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St.
North Florida
North Alabama
Austin Peay
Central Arkansas


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 70.2% 68.8% 1.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 27.9 29.9 7.6 0.4 0.0 29.8 4.2%
Kennesaw St. 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 91.8 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.5 0.2 94.2 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.4 96.4 0.0%
Lipscomb 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 96.4 0.0%
Jacksonville 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.8 96.7 0.0%
Stetson 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.0 96.7 0.0%
Queens 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 98.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
North Florida 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.7 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Liberty 70.2% 1.1% 69.5% 20.2% 6.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 3.7% 1.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 3.3% 0.5% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 3.3% 0.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 2.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 97.7 0.7
2nd Round 21.9% 0.2 78.1 21.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.3
Elite Eight 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0