Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
139 Eastern Kentucky 26.5%   16   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 5 +2.1      +2.3 105 -0.2 180 82.0 6 -0.8 188 0.0 1
151 Jacksonville St. 22.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 5 +1.3      +0.7 154 +0.6 148 64.8 285 -1.5 203 0.0 1
173 Liberty 17.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 6 -0.4      -1.2 210 +0.9 144 60.3 347 -9.5 304 0.0 1
176 Bellarmine 0.1%   1 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 6 -0.5      +1.9 114 -2.4 253 63.6 312 -1.2 202 0.0 1
188 Florida Gulf Coast 11.5%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 -1.2      +0.5 161 -1.7 235 75.9 46 +6.6 85 0.0 1
223 Lipscomb 10.2%   3 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 7 -2.7      +0.8 151 -3.5 283 69.8 166 -0.6 186 0.0 1
262 Jacksonville 4.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 14 7 - 9 -5.4      -5.1 307 -0.3 183 62.5 329 -1.8 206 0.0 1
267 Stetson 3.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 9 -6.0      -3.0 270 -2.9 272 67.7 227 -6.4 267 0.0 1
284 North Florida 2.4%   0 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 20 7 - 9 -6.9      -1.7 225 -5.2 319 70.9 137 -6.4 266 0.0 1
309 Kennesaw St. 1.5%   0 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 18 6 - 10 -8.2      -5.9 326 -2.3 250 71.0 128 -5.6 253 0.0 1
320 North Alabama 0.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 18 5 - 11 -9.3      -6.4 339 -2.9 269 73.2 85 -13.1 332 0.0 1
342 Central Arkansas 0.1%   1 - 6 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 13 -13.0      -5.8 324 -7.2 345 75.6 49 -10.8 314 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Eastern Kentucky 2.9 34.0 20.5 14.0 11.0 7.2 5.8 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.1
Jacksonville St. 3.3 26.6 19.0 15.1 12.9 8.8 7.0 4.8 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.2
Liberty 3.9 18.8 18.6 14.8 12.6 10.1 8.4 5.7 4.8 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.3
Bellarmine 4.2 17.2 14.8 14.4 13.4 11.0 9.1 7.4 5.7 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast 4.4 15.1 15.2 13.8 13.3 10.7 8.9 7.8 6.3 4.6 2.4 1.4 0.5
Lipscomb 5.4 9.0 8.3 11.0 13.2 11.3 12.0 11.4 8.4 7.0 5.1 2.4 1.0
Jacksonville 6.7 3.5 5.5 8.0 9.6 9.4 12.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 9.4 7.1 3.2
Stetson 7.1 3.6 4.5 6.1 7.1 7.6 9.7 12.4 12.6 11.6 11.2 9.3 4.3
North Florida 7.5 1.3 2.8 4.6 6.7 9.0 10.2 12.0 13.8 12.8 12.2 9.6 5.1
Kennesaw St. 8.2 0.8 2.0 2.5 4.5 5.8 8.6 11.1 13.3 14.4 14.6 14.9 7.5
North Alabama 8.9 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.9 11.6 14.0 17.3 18.1 14.1
Central Arkansas 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 3.0 5.0 9.7 14.5 23.4 41.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Eastern Kentucky 11 - 5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.1 6.4 9.8 13.0 14.9 15.8 15.8 10.9 5.5 2.0
Jacksonville St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 5.0 7.6 11.7 14.5 15.7 15.1 13.0 8.8 3.5 0.9
Liberty 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.2 6.9 9.8 12.4 14.4 16.4 12.3 10.4 6.2 2.8 0.7
Bellarmine 10 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.9 5.1 8.1 11.5 13.4 15.0 15.0 12.3 8.0 5.0 1.9 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 10 - 6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.5 6.2 8.2 11.3 13.4 14.9 14.3 11.8 7.2 4.5 1.9 0.4
Lipscomb 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.2 7.3 8.2 12.2 13.4 15.7 13.6 10.0 7.7 4.5 1.7 0.7 0.2
Jacksonville 7 - 9 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.0 8.0 9.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 12.4 10.1 6.9 3.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Stetson 7 - 9 0.2 0.9 3.1 6.0 9.4 11.3 13.9 13.1 13.3 10.0 7.8 5.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1
North Florida 7 - 9 0.3 1.5 3.6 5.8 10.3 12.9 14.4 14.9 12.7 11.0 6.4 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Kennesaw St. 6 - 10 0.4 2.4 5.3 10.5 12.8 14.5 14.6 14.3 10.0 7.0 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 5 - 11 1.2 4.6 8.8 13.2 14.6 15.6 13.7 10.7 7.9 4.7 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1
Central Arkansas 3 - 13 5.2 15.2 19.4 19.5 17.0 10.4 6.9 4.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Eastern Kentucky 34.0% 21.9 8.9 2.4 0.7 0.1
Jacksonville St. 26.6% 16.4 7.2 2.4 0.5 0.1
Liberty 18.8% 10.3 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.1
Bellarmine 17.2% 9.6 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 15.1% 8.8 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.0
Lipscomb 9.0% 4.3 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville 3.5% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3
Stetson 3.6% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
North Florida 1.3% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Kennesaw St. 0.8% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
North Alabama 0.5% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Eastern Kentucky 26.5% 26.4% 0.1% 16   0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.9 7.9 8.5 4.8 73.5 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.7 8.7 5.7 77.5 0.0%
Liberty 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.1 7.9 82.9 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.5 2.9 88.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.8 4.2 89.9 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.4 95.3 0.0%
Stetson 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 96.5 0.0%
North Florida 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3 2.2 97.6 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Eastern Kentucky 26.5% 1.4% 26.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 22.5% 2.2% 21.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 17.1% 3.3% 15.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 11.5% 1.0% 10.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 10.2% 1.8% 9.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.7% 1.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 3.5% 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.7 0.1
2nd Round 6.4% 0.1 93.6 6.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0