Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Lipscomb 24.9%   15   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 5 +0.1      -1.8 219 +1.9 111 72.1 117 +0.3 165 0.0 1
166 Florida Gulf Coast 20.5%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -0.9      +1.3 130 -2.2 238 71.4 136 -1.9 198 0.0 1
173 Austin Peay 19.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -1.2      -3.3 259 +2.1 106 71.0 148 +1.0 158 0.0 1
219 Queens 10.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -3.6      +2.2 114 -5.8 344 70.7 156 -4.7 238 0.0 1
221 North Alabama 9.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -3.7      -1.2 200 -2.5 249 66.6 261 -3.6 223 0.0 1
263 Eastern Kentucky 5.7%   0 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 9 - 9 -5.7      -1.0 190 -4.7 331 71.4 138 -15.3 350 0.0 1
274 Jacksonville 4.3%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.2      -4.7 300 -1.6 217 65.8 277 -1.0 187 0.0 1
284 West Georgia 0.0%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -6.8      -3.9 274 -2.9 269 69.5 183 +4.3 108 0.0 1
295 Bellarmine 2.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -7.4      0.0 158 -7.4 355 66.1 267 -5.3 247 0.0 1
322 Central Arkansas 1.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.2      -5.4 318 -3.8 302 69.5 185 -7.0 271 0.0 1
343 North Florida 0.6%   0 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -11.4      -3.5 264 -7.8 360 78.6 20 -17.4 356 0.0 1
348 Stetson 0.4%   2 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.7      -6.0 331 -5.8 343 69.0 198 -11.4 322 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Nov 29 152 Lipscomb 88 229 Southeast Missouri St. 77   
Sat, Nov 29 263 Eastern Kentucky 77 213 Wofford 83   
Sat, Nov 29 295 Bellarmine 0 329 Northern Illinois 0   
Sat, Nov 29 323 Southern Utah 70 348 Stetson 68   
Sat, Nov 29 322 Central Arkansas 57 137 East Tennessee St. 80   
Sun, Nov 30 182 Robert Morris 80 348 Stetson 62   
Mon, Dec 1 245 Jacksonville St. 66 221 North Alabama 73   
Mon, Dec 1 147 Troy 89 284 West Georgia 93   
Tue, Dec 2 344 Florida A&M 82 274 Jacksonville 85   
Tue, Dec 2 343 North Florida 63 204 SIU Edwardsville 72   
Tue, Dec 2 95 Grand Canyon 67 348 Stetson 45   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 3 173 Austin Peay 74 124 Kent St. 81 75%   
Wed, Dec 3 166 Florida Gulf Coast 76 217 Florida International 77 52%   
Wed, Dec 3 221 North Alabama 66 88 San Francisco 79 88%   
Wed, Dec 3 263 Eastern Kentucky 68 101 Illinois St. 82 89%   
Wed, Dec 3 322 Central Arkansas 69 256 Arkansas Little Rock 70 54%   
Wed, Dec 3 152 Lipscomb 80 316 Tennessee Tech 68 86%   
Wed, Dec 3 355 Gardner-Webb 75 219 Queens 88 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 217 Florida International 73 274 Jacksonville 67 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 316 Tennessee Tech 71 284 West Georgia 76 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 295 Bellarmine 74 110 Murray St. 88 90%   
Sat, Dec 6 91 South Carolina 82 348 Stetson 62 96%   
Sun, Dec 7 166 Florida Gulf Coast 77 127 Florida Atlantic 78 52%   
Sun, Dec 7 173 Austin Peay 74 202 UT Rio Grande Valley 76 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 322 Central Arkansas 68 308 East Texas A&M 72 66%   
Sun, Dec 7 304 Alabama A&M 66 152 Lipscomb 77 84%   
Sun, Dec 7 6 Gonzaga 101 343 North Florida 67 100%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.9 34.0 21.2 14.2 10.5 7.3 5.4 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 3.3 26.7 19.7 15.2 11.9 8.9 6.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2
Austin Peay 3.5 24.5 19.1 15.1 12.2 9.1 7.1 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3
Queens 4.5 13.2 14.9 14.5 13.0 11.3 9.4 7.5 6.0 4.4 3.1 1.8 0.8
North Alabama 4.8 11.0 13.1 13.4 13.1 12.0 10.5 8.6 6.7 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.4 4.7 6.9 8.0 9.5 10.4 11.2 11.6 11.2 9.7 7.9 5.6 3.2
Jacksonville 6.6 3.9 5.8 7.2 9.2 10.6 11.8 12.1 11.9 10.1 8.3 5.7 3.5
West Georgia 6.6 3.8 5.9 7.9 9.4 10.8 11.7 11.2 10.6 9.8 8.3 6.6 3.9
Bellarmine 7.5 2.3 3.8 5.1 6.7 8.5 9.8 10.8 11.9 12.5 11.8 10.2 6.6
Central Arkansas 8.1 1.0 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.9 8.4 10.8 12.5 13.7 13.6 13.1 9.5
North Florida 9.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.7 9.2 12.0 15.8 19.8 24.4
Stetson 9.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.8 8.7 12.1 16.7 21.6 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.7 11.8 14.1 15.0 14.5 11.6 7.5 3.5 1.0
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.9 7.5 10.3 12.7 14.8 14.5 12.3 9.0 5.8 2.3 0.5
Austin Peay 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.9 10.8 13.2 14.2 14.1 11.7 8.5 5.2 2.1 0.5
Queens 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.8 6.1 8.6 11.1 12.8 13.6 13.4 10.8 7.9 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.2
North Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.0 9.5 12.1 13.4 13.7 12.3 9.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.1 6.7 9.4 11.5 13.2 13.0 12.0 9.7 7.4 4.9 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.0 10.0 12.3 13.8 13.5 11.8 9.7 6.7 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
West Georgia 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.2 9.6 11.4 13.1 13.3 11.9 9.7 6.8 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.0 12.6 13.0 13.0 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.9 9.3 12.4 13.9 14.2 12.6 10.5 7.1 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 1.1 4.1 8.3 12.1 14.5 15.2 13.8 11.1 8.2 5.3 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 13 1.0 4.0 8.3 12.9 16.0 16.2 13.9 10.9 7.2 4.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 34.0% 23.5 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 26.7% 17.8 6.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 24.5% 15.9 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Queens 13.2% 7.6 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 11.0% 6.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 4.7% 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 3.9% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 3.8% 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 2.3% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.4 8.6 7.9 2.9 75.1 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.0 7.3 4.1 79.5 0.0%
Austin Peay 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.7 6.7 3.3 81.0 0.0%
Queens 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 4.4 89.8 0.0%
North Alabama 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.8 3.9 90.1 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 4.4 94.3 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 95.7 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 97.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%
North Florida 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 24.9% 0.9% 24.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 20.5% 1.4% 19.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 19.0% 1.2% 18.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 10.2% 2.3% 9.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 9.9% 1.9% 9.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.7% 3.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 4.3% 1.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.9% 1.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.8
2nd Round 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0