Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 Lipscomb 21.6%   15   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 5 +0.5      +1.4 136 -1.0 200 73.5 67 +0.9 156 0.0 1
165 Stetson 20.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 0.0      +3.6 80 -3.7 298 62.8 328 +8.0 77 0.0 1
212 Kennesaw St. 10.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 7 -2.2      +0.1 172 -2.3 241 85.7 2 -0.8 184 0.0 1
220 Florida Gulf Coast 9.1%   1 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 7 -2.4      +1.0 148 -3.4 288 63.5 321 -10.3 310 0.0 1
222 North Alabama 8.4%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 7 -2.6      -1.7 218 -0.9 197 70.5 148 -3.7 243 0.0 1
225 Eastern Kentucky 9.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 7 -2.8      -0.1 175 -2.8 261 74.0 63 -10.5 312 0.0 1
226 Bellarmine 8.2%   1 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 7 -2.9      -2.0 235 -0.9 196 64.6 303 -8.6 297 0.0 1
245 Jacksonville 5.1%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 8 -4.2      -3.7 277 -0.5 188 67.6 225 +4.9 108 0.0 1
255 Queens 3.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 9 -5.1      -2.2 244 -2.8 266 74.5 55 -1.1 188 0.0 1
275 Austin Peay 2.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -6.2      -4.5 297 -1.7 224 63.3 325 -10.0 308 0.0 1
307 North Florida 0.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -8.1      -1.6 216 -6.5 347 70.1 161 -9.6 306 0.0 1
348 Central Arkansas 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 4 - 26 3 - 13 -12.7      -5.7 321 -7.0 352 71.7 117 -23.5 362 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 3.2 30.1 20.0 14.6 10.6 8.0 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2
Stetson 3.7 26.5 18.2 13.2 10.0 8.7 6.9 5.3 3.9 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.5
Kennesaw St. 4.9 14.1 12.8 11.8 11.5 9.9 8.9 8.8 7.2 5.7 4.7 3.2 1.3
Florida Gulf Coast 5.1 12.0 11.7 12.0 11.0 10.8 9.7 9.4 7.6 6.7 4.7 3.3 1.2
North Alabama 5.0 12.2 12.5 12.1 11.3 11.0 9.7 9.0 7.2 6.5 4.7 2.8 1.1
Eastern Kentucky 5.3 11.8 11.5 10.5 10.7 10.5 9.7 8.9 8.2 7.0 5.8 3.6 1.8
Bellarmine 5.3 10.3 10.6 11.4 11.5 11.2 10.2 10.7 8.4 6.6 4.9 3.3 1.1
Jacksonville 6.3 6.1 7.5 8.0 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.9 10.6 9.5 8.4 6.9 2.7
Queens 6.9 4.0 5.9 6.7 8.2 9.0 9.5 10.9 10.8 11.8 10.7 8.8 3.5
Austin Peay 7.5 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.8 7.3 9.0 10.7 12.1 13.2 12.7 11.1 6.0
North Florida 8.7 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.8 4.5 6.4 8.0 10.3 13.2 15.9 20.3 12.0
Central Arkansas 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.9 3.8 6.7 11.4 21.9 49.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Lipscomb 11 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.7 11.9 15.5 17.0 14.8 12.5 7.3 3.2 0.7
Stetson 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.4 9.3 12.4 13.9 15.1 14.1 10.5 6.5 3.0 0.7
Kennesaw St. 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 5.2 7.6 10.4 13.3 13.9 13.9 12.1 9.4 5.5 2.8 1.2 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.1 9.0 11.0 13.8 14.9 13.4 12.0 8.1 4.5 2.5 0.8 0.2
North Alabama 9 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.2 11.3 13.6 14.8 14.0 12.0 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.2 9.1 11.5 13.8 13.6 13.2 11.0 7.7 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2
Bellarmine 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.3 8.7 13.0 14.9 15.0 13.9 10.6 7.0 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
Jacksonville 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 5.9 8.8 12.2 14.7 14.8 12.9 10.2 7.8 4.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Queens 7 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.2 7.4 11.0 14.0 15.1 13.7 11.7 8.9 6.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Austin Peay 7 - 9 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.5 9.7 13.4 15.7 15.5 12.6 10.0 6.8 4.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
North Florida 6 - 10 0.6 2.7 6.9 11.1 14.0 16.2 14.7 12.3 9.4 5.7 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 3 - 13 6.0 14.4 19.2 19.3 15.1 11.5 7.0 4.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 30.1% 18.9 8.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Stetson 26.5% 17.0 7.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 14.1% 7.9 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 12.0% 6.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 12.2% 6.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 11.8% 6.7 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
Bellarmine 10.3% 5.4 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 6.1% 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Queens 4.0% 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Austin Peay 2.7% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 0.9% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 1.0 3.9 7.0 6.2 3.3 78.4 0.0%
Stetson 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 5.9 4.1 1.7 80.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 89.1 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 5.5 90.9 0.0%
North Alabama 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 3.0 3.1 91.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.7 4.4 90.2 0.0%
Bellarmine 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 5.8 91.8 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 94.9 0.0%
Queens 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 96.4 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 97.8 0.0%
North Florida 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 21.6% 1.4% 21.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 20.0% 0.9% 19.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 10.9% 1.8% 10.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.1% 4.4% 7.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 8.4% 1.7% 7.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 9.8% 3.2% 8.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 8.2% 4.9% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 5.1% 0.8% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 3.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 89.6% 0.9 10.4 89.6 0.0
2nd Round 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0