Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
137 Lipscomb 32.7%   15   5 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.4      -0.4 177 +1.8 114 74.9 50 +1.7 145 0.0 1
185 Florida Gulf Coast 16.9%   4 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -1.6      +0.6 148 -2.2 243 70.7 153 -4.3 237 0.0 1
192 Austin Peay 15.0%   4 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 -2.0      -3.8 270 +1.8 113 69.8 174 -0.1 166 0.0 1
210 Queens 11.0%   4 - 7 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -3.2      +3.7 89 -6.9 349 70.7 154 -3.8 226 0.0 1
244 Eastern Kentucky 7.1%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -4.7      -1.2 198 -3.6 293 69.3 193 -8.4 294 0.0 1
247 North Alabama 6.8%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.9      -2.8 245 -2.1 241 66.6 265 -3.0 214 0.0 1
275 Bellarmine 4.5%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.1      0.0 167 -6.1 345 66.1 275 -5.8 251 0.0 1
284 Central Arkansas 3.9%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.4      -5.3 315 -1.1 205 72.3 108 -7.4 276 0.0 1
311 West Georgia 0.0%   4 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -8.8      -4.5 291 -4.3 321 69.5 186 -2.6 205 0.0 1
312 Jacksonville 1.4%   3 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8.8      -5.1 308 -3.7 299 65.7 285 -6.2 259 0.0 1
345 Stetson 0.4%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.8      -6.2 332 -5.6 342 69.0 198 -11.0 326 0.0 1
350 North Florida 0.4%   0 - 9 0 - 0 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12.4      -3.1 252 -9.3 364 78.6 18 -17.1 356 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 16 2 Duke 97 137 Lipscomb 73   
Tue, Dec 16 21 Arkansas 108 210 Queens 80   
Wed, Dec 17 275 Bellarmine 79 251 Chattanooga 64   
Wed, Dec 17 244 Eastern Kentucky 62 273 Jacksonville St. 59   
Wed, Dec 17 343 Florida A&M 72 312 Jacksonville 65   
Thu, Dec 18 240 Charleston Southern 113 350 North Florida 90   
Fri, Dec 19 126 Loyola Marymount 91 247 North Alabama 57   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 185 Florida Gulf Coast 73 56 Central Florida 88 91%   
Sun, Dec 21 244 Eastern Kentucky 66 100 Wichita St. 79 88%   
Sun, Dec 21 284 Central Arkansas 66 41 SMU 87 97%   
Sun, Dec 21 192 Austin Peay 73 342 UMKC 66 73%   
Sun, Dec 21 35 Miami (FL) 98 350 North Florida 70 99%   
Mon, Dec 22 119 Florida St. 84 312 Jacksonville 69 91%   
Mon, Dec 22 19 Georgia 96 311 West Georgia 69 99%   
Mon, Dec 22 47 Oklahoma 89 345 Stetson 63 98%   
Tue, Dec 23 275 Bellarmine 64 20 Kentucky 89 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.2 49.6 20.8 12.1 7.1 4.5 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 3.5 21.4 20.3 16.5 13.0 9.9 7.2 4.9 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2
Austin Peay 3.8 18.7 18.6 15.9 13.5 10.5 8.3 5.5 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3
Queens 4.2 14.7 17.0 16.0 13.4 11.1 8.9 6.8 4.9 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 5.7 5.7 9.1 10.3 11.5 12.4 11.9 10.7 9.8 7.9 5.8 3.6 1.4
North Alabama 5.5 6.4 9.8 11.7 12.4 12.8 11.8 10.5 8.9 6.8 4.8 2.9 1.2
Bellarmine 6.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 9.1 10.6 11.2 11.5 11.7 10.5 8.9 6.3 3.4
Central Arkansas 6.5 3.0 5.9 7.7 9.6 11.7 12.1 11.9 11.9 10.2 7.8 5.5 2.6
West Georgia 7.8 1.4 2.9 4.4 6.0 8.0 9.5 10.8 12.1 13.1 12.8 11.4 7.6
Jacksonville 8.0 1.0 2.3 3.4 5.2 7.1 9.2 11.3 13.3 14.1 13.4 11.7 8.0
Stetson 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.9 8.8 12.6 16.4 21.7 25.0
North Florida 10.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.1 3.3 5.3 7.8 11.5 16.2 22.2 29.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.1 5.5 8.5 12.4 15.5 17.7 15.7 11.6 5.9 1.6
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.2 8.6 11.5 14.4 15.6 14.8 11.4 7.6 3.8 1.4 0.3
Austin Peay 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.1 14.6 14.6 13.6 10.3 6.6 3.4 1.1 0.2
Queens 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.7 13.2 14.2 13.9 12.1 9.0 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.3 7.2 10.2 12.4 14.3 14.0 11.9 9.5 6.3 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.2 12.3 13.8 14.6 12.9 10.4 7.3 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Bellarmine 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.0 12.7 13.5 13.5 12.1 9.2 6.6 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.3 9.7 12.4 14.6 14.4 12.8 9.8 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.8 7.5 11.4 13.2 14.4 12.8 11.6 8.7 5.7 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.0 8.3 11.8 14.2 15.2 13.6 11.2 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 13 0.8 3.8 8.2 12.8 15.4 16.5 14.4 11.5 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 1.2 4.5 9.5 14.3 16.5 16.0 13.7 10.4 6.6 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 49.6% 36.4 10.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 21.4% 13.0 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 18.7% 11.1 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Queens 14.7% 8.3 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 5.7% 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 6.4% 3.2 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 3.5% 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 3.0% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.1 12.2 8.4 1.8 67.3 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.8 5.0 83.1 0.0%
Austin Peay 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 6.0 3.3 85.0 0.0%
Queens 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.6 89.1 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.8 92.9 0.0%
North Alabama 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 3.0 93.2 0.0%
Bellarmine 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 95.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 96.1 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.6 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
North Florida 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 32.7% 0.4% 32.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.9% 1.9% 16.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 15.0% 1.0% 14.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 11.0% 2.2% 10.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.1% 3.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 6.8% 1.5% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 4.5% 1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 3.9% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.7% 0.9 7.3 92.7
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0