Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Lipscomb 40.2%   14   6 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 4 +4.1      +2.0 123 +2.1 102 69.5 171 +3.4 119 0.0 1
182 North Florida 12.6%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      +3.2 91 -4.3 309 74.4 55 +7.3 83 0.0 1
188 Florida Gulf Coast 12.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -1.3      -0.9 200 -0.4 183 61.7 344 -2.9 214 0.0 1
207 Eastern Kentucky 9.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.2      +1.1 143 -3.3 286 69.9 160 -0.4 177 0.0 1
212 Jacksonville 8.9%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 -2.4      -2.3 231 -0.2 173 68.9 184 +0.1 172 0.0 1
214 North Alabama 8.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -2.6      -0.9 198 -1.7 228 69.0 181 -3.7 230 0.0 1
238 Austin Peay 5.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -4.2      -3.8 280 -0.4 182 62.6 335 +0.3 171 0.0 1
290 Queens 2.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -6.7      -3.6 272 -3.1 279 77.4 22 -6.6 276 0.0 1
329 Stetson 0.7%   0 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 12 -9.6      -3.6 271 -6.0 346 70.2 152 -17.6 360 0.0 1
333 Bellarmine 0.5%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 12 -9.9      -3.2 259 -6.7 352 66.1 266 -16.4 355 0.0 1
337 Central Arkansas 0.4%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -10.3      -6.9 346 -3.4 289 69.1 175 -11.8 335 0.0 1
349 West Georgia 0.1%   0 - 10 0 - 0 5 - 25 4 - 14 -12.6      -7.3 351 -5.3 332 68.6 192 -15.5 353 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 1.8 60.5 20.5 8.9 5.0 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 3.9 15.8 18.8 16.2 13.6 11.1 8.8 6.7 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 3.9 14.1 19.4 17.9 14.5 11.5 8.7 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 4.9 8.1 12.5 13.6 13.5 13.1 11.9 10.3 7.5 4.6 2.9 1.5 0.5
Jacksonville 4.6 10.0 14.2 14.2 13.8 12.9 10.7 9.2 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5
North Alabama 4.9 8.0 11.8 13.8 14.7 13.5 11.9 9.7 7.3 4.8 2.6 1.4 0.5
Austin Peay 5.5 5.0 8.6 11.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 11.4 9.8 6.7 4.4 2.2 1.0
Queens 7.1 1.7 3.8 5.6 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.1 14.5 12.4 9.5 6.4 3.7
Stetson 8.6 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.2 7.3 10.1 13.2 16.1 16.2 14.3 10.7
Bellarmine 9.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.2 7.7 11.5 15.1 18.7 19.8 14.6
Central Arkansas 9.2 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.3 7.6 11.6 15.6 17.7 18.7 15.7
West Georgia 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.6 7.6 12.0 16.9 23.1 30.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.5 12.9 17.3 19.3 17.5 11.1 4.0
North Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.3 9.2 12.0 13.6 14.0 13.5 10.1 7.2 4.1 1.6 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.6 6.0 9.0 12.4 14.4 15.3 13.9 10.9 6.7 3.5 1.2 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.1 10.1 12.7 14.0 13.8 12.3 9.6 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1
Jacksonville 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.1 9.1 11.5 13.4 14.0 12.6 10.7 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1
North Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.8 9.9 12.5 14.3 14.8 12.6 9.6 6.3 3.4 1.4 0.5 0.1
Austin Peay 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 6.5 9.1 11.8 13.7 14.4 13.1 10.2 7.7 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Queens 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.3 8.7 11.6 13.5 14.1 12.9 10.9 7.9 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stetson 6 - 12 0.3 1.5 4.4 8.1 11.7 14.3 14.8 13.6 11.5 8.3 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 6 - 12 0.7 2.9 6.6 11.2 14.5 16.1 14.8 12.1 8.8 6.1 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 6 - 12 0.6 2.8 6.7 11.3 14.3 15.3 14.7 12.3 9.2 5.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 4 - 14 2.0 6.4 12.1 16.5 17.3 15.6 12.1 8.3 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 60.5% 46.0 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.1
North Florida 15.8% 9.2 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 14.1% 7.8 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8.1% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 10.0% 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 8.0% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 5.0% 2.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Queens 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 40.2% 40.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 9.9 14.9 10.2 3.4 0.4 59.8 0.0%
North Florida 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 3.9 2.5 0.5 87.4 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.3 3.9 2.7 88.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.2 1.5 91.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.4 1.7 91.1 0.0%
North Alabama 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 2.6 92.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 94.8 0.0%
Queens 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 97.7 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
West Georgia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 40.2% 0.1% 40.1% 5.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 12.6% 0.2% 12.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 12.0% 1.4% 11.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 9.0% 0.6% 8.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 8.9% 0.7% 8.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 8.0% 0.9% 7.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.2% 0.6% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 2.3% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 96.9% 1.0 3.1 96.9 0.0
2nd Round 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0