Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#194
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#221
Pace72.7#72
Improvement+0.6#112

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#196
First Shot-1.0#219
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#140
Layup/Dunks+2.7#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows-2.4#333
Improvement-0.7#299

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#199
First Shot-0.9#203
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#154
Layups/Dunks-1.2#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#110
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+1.3#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 3.9% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 73.7% 83.9% 53.6%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 83.9% 53.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round3.2% 3.5% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 66.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 411 - 614 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 286   @ South Dakota L 77-85 60%     0 - 1 -12.0 +2.2 -14.5
  Nov 14, 2022 128   Belmont W 77-75 47%     1 - 1 +1.6 +0.0 +1.5
  Nov 18, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 65-66 27%     1 - 2 +4.0 +2.5 +1.4
  Nov 23, 2022 164   @ Chattanooga W 72-66 34%     2 - 2 +8.9 -1.4 +10.4
  Nov 30, 2022 212   Navy W 82-77 64%     3 - 2 +0.2 +9.1 -8.8
  Dec 09, 2022 347   @ Alabama A&M L 59-63 78%     3 - 3 -13.4 -17.5 +4.3
  Dec 11, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. L 85-90 69%     3 - 4 -11.4 -1.7 -9.1
  Dec 14, 2022 303   Tennessee Tech W 64-63 81%     4 - 4 -9.5 -11.7 +2.3
  Dec 17, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 75-83 12%     4 - 5 +3.7 +5.0 -1.0
  Dec 20, 2022 248   @ Louisville W 75-67 52%     5 - 5 +6.2 +3.8 +2.6
  Dec 30, 2022 199   Stetson L 80-86 OT 61%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -10.2 -5.0 -4.7
  Jan 02, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 48-77 13%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -18.1 -14.1 -6.5
  Jan 05, 2023 291   North Alabama W 86-62 79%     6 - 7 1 - 2 +14.4 +5.8 +8.6
  Jan 07, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 44-51 40%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -5.7 -21.4 +14.7
  Jan 12, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 87-65 66%     7 - 8 2 - 3 +16.5 +11.0 +5.1
  Jan 14, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 86-72 82%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +3.1 +8.5 -5.5
  Jan 19, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 75-62 60%     9 - 8 4 - 3 +9.1 -2.3 +11.0
  Jan 21, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 69-49 73%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +12.5 -6.8 +19.8
  Jan 26, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-72 54%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -7.3 -1.0 -6.8
  Jan 28, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-85 32%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -9.4 -3.7 -4.9
  Feb 02, 2023 221   Queens W 80-76 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 70   Liberty L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 09, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 291   @ North Alabama W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 282   North Florida W 81-73 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 197   Jacksonville W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 24, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 71-74 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.8 3.7 0.5 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 5.3 8.0 1.4 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 12.2 3.3 0.1 18.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 9.8 6.6 0.1 17.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.7 9.3 0.7 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.6 7.2 3.0 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 2.5 4.8 0.3 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.0 17.2 25.3 25.4 16.3 5.8 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 8.8% 8.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 5.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.5
11-7 16.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 15.5
10-8 25.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 24.3
9-9 25.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 24.6
8-10 17.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 16.8
7-11 7.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
6-12 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 8.8% 14.0 0.2 1.4 5.5 1.4 0.2
Lose Out 0.2%