Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#157
Pace71.5#99
Improvement-2.7#298

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#68
First Shot+7.5#22
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#334
Layup/Dunks+2.1#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#22
Freethrows-1.2#269
Improvement+3.9#21

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#331
First Shot-4.5#322
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#241
Layups/Dunks-1.4#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#272
Freethrows+3.4#16
Improvement-6.6#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 24.7% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.9% 24.7% 19.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 412 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 148   @ Wichita St. L 59-76 35%     0 - 1 -13.2 -10.9 -2.2
  Nov 08, 2023 59   @ Drake L 70-85 13%     0 - 2 -3.0 -0.5 -2.0
  Nov 14, 2023 330   @ Tennessee Tech W 96-65 76%     1 - 2 +23.3 +18.5 +4.2
  Nov 18, 2023 337   Alabama A&M W 106-81 90%     2 - 2 +10.4 +15.8 -8.5
  Nov 24, 2023 156   UNC Asheville W 86-75 48%     3 - 2 +11.3 +5.7 +4.8
  Nov 25, 2023 235   Bowling Green L 61-82 63%     3 - 3 -24.7 -12.9 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2023 210   Wofford W 85-78 60%     4 - 3 +4.2 +3.7 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2023 146   Chattanooga W 82-68 54%     5 - 3 +12.6 +6.6 +5.9
  Dec 02, 2023 64   @ Central Florida L 57-72 14%     5 - 4 -3.5 -10.6 +8.2
  Dec 06, 2023 131   @ Belmont L 71-72 31%     5 - 5 +3.9 -2.9 +6.8
  Dec 10, 2023 290   Tennessee St. W 78-71 80%     6 - 5 -2.4 +0.0 -2.6
  Dec 16, 2023 101   @ Arkansas L 66-69 21%     6 - 6 +5.0 -0.4 +5.3
  Dec 30, 2023 75   @ Florida St. W 78-75 17%     7 - 6 +12.9 +12.8 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2024 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-80 42%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -6.4 +1.4 -8.2
  Jan 06, 2024 310   @ Bellarmine W 81-70 69%     8 - 7 1 - 1 +5.5 +14.1 -7.4
  Jan 13, 2024 217   Austin Peay W 91-77 70%     9 - 7 2 - 1 +8.2 +12.0 -4.0
  Jan 18, 2024 338   Central Arkansas L 86-96 90%     9 - 8 2 - 2 -24.7 +3.7 -28.1
  Jan 20, 2024 248   North Alabama W 88-79 74%     10 - 8 3 - 2 +2.0 +13.6 -11.2
  Jan 25, 2024 230   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 98-72 52%     11 - 8 4 - 2 +25.2 +35.0 -6.9
  Jan 27, 2024 196   @ Stetson L 59-80 47%     11 - 9 4 - 3 -20.5 -17.5 -2.8
  Jan 31, 2024 241   @ North Florida L 76-85 53%     11 - 10 4 - 4 -10.1 +1.9 -12.2
  Feb 03, 2024 276   Jacksonville W 84-82 79%     12 - 10 5 - 4 -6.6 +11.7 -18.3
  Feb 08, 2024 267   Queens W 90-88 77%     13 - 10 6 - 4 -6.0 +10.2 -16.2
  Feb 10, 2024 251   Kennesaw St. W 101-95 74%     14 - 10 7 - 4 -1.1 +15.7 -17.3
  Feb 15, 2024 248   @ North Alabama L 70-75 55%     14 - 11 7 - 5 -6.5 -5.6 -0.9
  Feb 17, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas W 85-68 80%     15 - 11 8 - 5 +7.8 +13.3 -4.4
  Feb 24, 2024 217   @ Austin Peay W 90-85 50%     16 - 11 9 - 5 +4.7 +13.9 -9.3
  Feb 28, 2024 310   Bellarmine W 81-70 85%    
  Mar 01, 2024 180   Eastern Kentucky W 85-81 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 10.6 41.9 52.4 2nd
3rd 2.3 28.7 13.1 44.1 3rd
4th 2.7 2.7 4th
5th 0.8 0.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.8 39.3 55.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 55.0% 26.7% 26.7% 14.2 0.0 1.9 8.3 4.3 0.1 40.3
10-6 39.3% 20.9% 20.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.6 0.4 31.1
9-7 5.8% 17.1% 17.1% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 4.8
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 2.1 11.5 9.6 0.7 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 55.0% 26.7% 14.2 0.1 3.5 15.1 7.8 0.2
Lose Out 5.8% 17.1% 15.1 2.0 11.9 3.2