Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#141
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#148
Pace74.8#52
Improvement+6.3#2

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#178
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#202
Layup/Dunks+2.6#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#51
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement+3.5#11

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#114
First Shot+0.2#164
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#79
Layups/Dunks-0.8#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement+2.8#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.0% 37.4% 30.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.4 14.1
.500 or above 95.3% 98.9% 94.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.5% 96.8%
Conference Champion 47.2% 55.4% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round31.9% 37.3% 30.6%
Second Round1.8% 3.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 8
Quad 416 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 10 @Vanderbilt L 61-105 4%     0 - 1 -22.7 -7.9 -12.1
  Sun, Nov 9 167 @Mercer L 77-92 46%     0 - 2 -12.7 +5.7 -18.7
  Tue, Nov 11 223 @UNC Asheville L 64-69 57%     0 - 3 -5.6 -4.9 -1.2
  Wed, Nov 19 87 @Belmont L 68-75 22%     0 - 4 +2.3 -8.0 +11.0
  Sat, Nov 22 297 Western Carolina W 83-62 86%     1 - 4 +10.6 +1.0 +8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 160 @Marshall W 90-67 43%     2 - 4 +26.0 +9.2 +14.5
  Sat, Nov 29 214 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88-77 56%     3 - 4 +10.7 +4.9 +4.4
  Wed, Dec 3 264 Tennessee Tech W 83-80 82%     4 - 4 -5.6 +2.0 -7.8
  Sun, Dec 7 279 Alabama A&M W 92-58 84%     5 - 4 +24.5 +22.7 +4.1
  Tue, Dec 16 2 @Duke L 73-97 2%     5 - 5 +1.7 +2.4 +3.0
  Mon, Dec 29 78 @Cincinnati L 69-78 19%    
  Thu, Jan 1 305 Jacksonville W 79-67 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 342 North Florida W 90-74 93%    
  Thu, Jan 8 347 @Stetson W 80-70 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 185 @Florida Gulf Coast L 77-78 49%    
  Thu, Jan 15 294 Bellarmine W 83-71 85%    
  Sat, Jan 17 194 Austin Peay W 76-70 72%    
  Thu, Jan 22 347 Stetson W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 185 Florida Gulf Coast W 80-74 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 305 @Jacksonville W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 342 @North Florida W 87-77 81%    
  Thu, Feb 5 194 @Austin Peay W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 283 Central Arkansas W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Feb 11 254 Eastern Kentucky W 82-73 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 209 @Queens W 82-81 55%    
  Wed, Feb 18 294 @Bellarmine W 80-74 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 North Alabama W 77-69 75%    
  Wed, Feb 25 314 @West Georgia W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 79-76 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.5 10.2 13.2 10.7 6.1 1.6 47.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.9 5.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.4 3.2 0.6 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.9 8.8 12.6 16.0 16.6 15.4 10.9 6.1 1.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.9% 6.1    6.0 0.1
16-2 97.7% 10.7    9.8 0.9 0.0
15-3 85.8% 13.2    10.2 2.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 61.1% 10.2    5.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.2% 4.5    1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.2% 47.2 34.4 9.9 2.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 59.3% 59.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
17-1 6.1% 54.4% 54.4% 12.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.8
16-2 10.9% 46.5% 46.5% 13.4 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.3 5.8
15-3 15.4% 41.0% 41.0% 13.8 0.2 2.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 9.1
14-4 16.6% 34.4% 34.4% 14.1 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.7 0.1 10.9
13-5 16.0% 28.8% 28.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.2 11.4
12-6 12.6% 23.2% 23.2% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 9.7
11-7 8.8% 18.5% 18.5% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 7.1
10-8 5.9% 15.7% 15.7% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 4.9
9-9 3.2% 11.6% 11.6% 15.7 0.1 0.3 2.9
8-10 1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
7-11 0.7% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.0% 32.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.8 11.7 8.2 2.0 68.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.3 2.1 6.4 51.1 36.2 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%