Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #155
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #151
Pace 74.5 #55
Improvement +1.9 #74

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #191 C F C C+ A+
Defense #127 B- B- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.18 #159 +2.6 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #357 0.52 #358 -5.6 #363
Three Pointers 50% #39 0.99 #211 +3.8 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #158 +0.8 #159
Freethrows 12.0 #356 76% #67 9.2 #338
Second Chance 26.9% #280 1.14 #74 0.31 #200
Turnovers 16.0% #130
Total Offense -0.9 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.13 #145 +0.7 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #150 0.72 #150 +0.0 #193
Three Pointers 40% #202 0.95 #114 +1.6 #131
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #115 +2.3 #114
Freethrows 15.7 #104 72% #177 11.3 #110
Second Chance 31.6% #216 1.09 #235 0.34 #237
Turnovers 18.0% #113
Total Defense +1.2 #127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #14 -0.2% #147
Shot Type Make Effect -2.2% #212 -4.3% #113
Possession Length 16.0 #71 16.5 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #72 0.18 #208
Improvement +1.5 #77 +0.5 #152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 30.8% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 94.1% 95.4% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.6% 89.2%
Conference Champion 44.3% 46.8% 24.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round29.4% 30.6% 20.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 8
Quad 416 - 420 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 8 @Vanderbilt L 61-105 3%     -28.5   0 - 1 -20.8 -5.5 -12.5
  Sun, Nov 9 176 @Mercer L 77-92 44%     -7.9   0 - 2 -13.2 +5.9 -19.4
  Tue, Nov 11 241 @UNC Asheville L 64-69 56%     -3.6   0 - 3 -6.3 -4.2 -2.5
  Wed, Nov 19 75 @Belmont L 68-75 17%     -7.4   0 - 4 +3.5 -7.4 +11.5
  Sat, Nov 22 297 Western Carolina W 83-62 85%     12.0   1 - 4 +10.4 +0.7 +8.5
  Wed, Nov 26 163 @Marshall W 90-67 40%     17.3   2 - 4 +25.8 +9.6 +13.9
  Sat, Nov 29 220 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88-77 53%     4.4   3 - 4 +10.5 +4.0 +5.0
  Wed, Dec 3 299 Tennessee Tech W 83-80 85%     1.4   4 - 4 -7.7 -0.5 -7.3
  Sun, Dec 7 293 Alabama A&M W 92-58 83%     13.3   5 - 4 +24.0 +22.0 +4.3
  Tue, Dec 16 5 @Duke L 73-97 2%     -5.5   5 - 5 +0.9 +1.8 +2.8
  Mon, Dec 29 58 @Cincinnati L 62-89 14%     -16.0   5 - 6 -15.0 -1.6 -12.5
  Thu, Jan 1 317 Jacksonville W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 347 North Florida W 92-76 92%    
  Thu, Jan 8 349 @Stetson W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78-79 46%    
  Thu, Jan 15 267 Bellarmine W 82-73 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 196 Austin Peay W 76-70 71%    
  Thu, Jan 22 349 Stetson W 83-67 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 186 Florida Gulf Coast W 81-76 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 317 @Jacksonville W 75-68 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 347 @North Florida W 89-79 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 196 @Austin Peay L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 280 Central Arkansas W 80-70 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 256 Eastern Kentucky W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 235 @Queens W 82-81 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 267 @Bellarmine W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 246 North Alabama W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 316 @West Georgia W 79-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 256 @Eastern Kentucky W 78-75 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.0 10.6 12.4 9.7 4.4 1.1 44.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 5.4 7.9 5.3 1.5 0.2 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.4 0.2 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.0 7.0 9.9 14.2 16.0 16.3 14.0 9.9 4.4 1.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 4.4    4.4 0.0
16-2 97.8% 9.7    9.1 0.6
15-3 89.0% 12.4    9.6 2.7 0.1
14-4 65.3% 10.6    5.8 4.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 31.2% 5.0    1.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.4% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.3% 44.3 31.4 9.9 2.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 60.7% 60.7% 11.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 4.4% 48.5% 48.5% 13.1 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3
16-2 9.9% 46.8% 46.8% 13.6 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.3 5.3
15-3 14.0% 41.0% 41.0% 14.0 1.2 3.2 1.3 0.0 8.2
14-4 16.3% 33.5% 33.5% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.1 0.1 10.8
13-5 16.0% 27.0% 27.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.3 0.3 11.7
12-6 14.2% 21.9% 21.9% 14.9 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.5 11.1
11-7 9.9% 18.9% 18.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 8.0
10-8 7.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 5.9
9-9 4.0% 11.4% 11.4% 15.5 0.2 0.2 3.6
8-10 1.9% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.2 1.7
7-11 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.2 1.1 4.9 11.3 9.7 2.4 70.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.9 26.2 58.5 13.8 1.5