Queens
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#221
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#176
Pace71.3#98
Improvement-0.4#235

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#94
First Shot+2.9#81
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks-2.6#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#20
Freethrows+1.2#93
Improvement+0.5#88

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#326
First Shot-5.8#337
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#162
Layups/Dunks-4.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#272
Freethrows+1.0#105
Improvement-0.9#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 89.9% 98.2% 85.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.4% 64.6% 29.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round1.9% 2.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 78   Marshall W 83-82 26%     1 - 0 +4.9 +7.3 -2.4
  Nov 15, 2022 230   @ La Salle L 60-72 42%     1 - 1 -12.8 -12.2 -0.7
  Nov 18, 2022 362   Green Bay W 81-65 91%     2 - 1 -1.3 -0.3 -1.0
  Nov 20, 2022 300   Morgan St. W 74-64 68%     3 - 1 +2.3 -2.2 +4.4
  Nov 26, 2022 122   @ George Mason L 65-72 22%     3 - 2 -1.6 +7.0 -9.8
  Nov 29, 2022 243   @ Bowling Green W 72-66 45%     4 - 2 +4.5 -3.0 +7.5
  Dec 09, 2022 304   @ High Point W 87-79 59%     5 - 2 +3.0 +3.2 -1.0
  Dec 14, 2022 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 78-75 40%     6 - 2 +2.8 +10.6 -7.7
  Dec 20, 2022 94   @ Nebraska L 65-75 16%     6 - 3 -2.1 -4.2 +2.6
  Dec 22, 2022 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-73 60%     7 - 3 +3.7 +0.2 +3.4
  Dec 29, 2022 315   Austin Peay W 81-77 78%     8 - 3 1 - 0 -6.9 +3.6 -10.6
  Dec 31, 2022 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 83-88 34%     8 - 4 1 - 1 -3.5 +4.4 -7.5
  Jan 05, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine W 75-74 47%     9 - 4 2 - 1 -1.1 +5.7 -6.6
  Jan 07, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 67-76 46%     9 - 5 2 - 2 -10.9 -8.0 -2.8
  Jan 12, 2023 338   Central Arkansas L 91-92 85%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -14.7 +0.0 -14.6
  Jan 14, 2023 291   North Alabama W 107-78 74%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +19.4 +21.7 -3.7
  Jan 19, 2023 282   @ North Florida L 90-95 54%     10 - 7 3 - 4 -8.8 +11.7 -20.5
  Jan 21, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 70-77 34%     10 - 8 3 - 5 -5.7 +7.6 -14.1
  Jan 26, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 84-82 50%     11 - 8 4 - 5 -0.7 +10.5 -11.2
  Jan 28, 2023 199   Stetson W 71-65 56%     12 - 8 5 - 5 +1.8 -7.4 +9.3
  Feb 02, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 76-80 34%    
  Feb 04, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 09, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 81-80 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 16, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 74-80 27%    
  Feb 22, 2023 70   Liberty L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 24, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 64-78 10%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 2.1 0.2 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 5.7 0.9 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.6 7.9 3.7 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 5.0 9.5 0.6 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 11.7 3.7 0.0 17.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 7.9 8.9 0.4 17.7 9th
10th 0.1 3.1 8.9 1.6 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.5 3.7 2.0 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.3 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 1.6 8.5 20.6 27.9 23.6 12.6 4.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.8% 5.4% 5.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
10-8 12.6% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.2
9-9 23.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 23.0
8-10 27.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 27.4
7-11 20.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 20.4
6-12 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.4
5-13 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 3.1% 13.0 3.1
Lose Out 1.6% 0.5% 16.0 0.5