Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#253
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#246
Pace57.5#361
Improvement+0.2#159

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#221
First Shot+1.0#144
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#331
Layup/Dunks-2.2#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows-1.7#305
Improvement-0.4#265

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#273
First Shot-3.0#273
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#227
Layups/Dunks+3.4#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#360
Freethrows-0.4#223
Improvement+0.6#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 1.4% 3.4% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 75.4% 39.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 32 - 42 - 11
Quad 48 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 248   @ Louisville W 67-66 38%     1 - 0 -0.8 +3.8 -4.4
  Nov 12, 2022 278   @ Morehead St. L 55-62 45%     1 - 1 -10.4 -13.7 +2.5
  Nov 18, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 66-76 7%     1 - 2 +1.6 +7.7 -7.3
  Nov 21, 2022 24   @ Duke L 57-74 4%     1 - 3 -1.0 +4.4 -9.1
  Nov 25, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 59-80 12%     1 - 4 -12.8 -6.1 -8.0
  Nov 27, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 60-81 2%     1 - 5 -0.2 +1.9 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2022 32   @ Kentucky L 41-60 4%     1 - 6 -4.0 -17.6 +9.9
  Dec 10, 2022 159   Murray St. W 69-58 41%     2 - 6 +8.6 +1.6 +8.3
  Dec 17, 2022 297   Miami (OH) L 67-71 69%     2 - 7 -14.0 -9.1 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2022 341   @ Evansville L 61-73 65%     2 - 8 -20.8 -9.9 -11.7
  Dec 29, 2022 70   Liberty L 53-70 17%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -11.6 -4.3 -11.0
  Jan 02, 2023 291   @ North Alabama W 69-65 48%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -0.2 +2.9 -2.4
  Jan 05, 2023 221   Queens L 74-75 53%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -6.5 -0.4 -6.2
  Jan 07, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-62 41%     4 - 10 2 - 2 +10.7 +12.1 +0.5
  Jan 12, 2023 199   Stetson L 51-80 48%     4 - 11 2 - 3 -33.2 -17.3 -22.2
  Jan 14, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 61-41 42%     5 - 11 3 - 3 +17.3 -4.7 +24.9
  Jan 19, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 56-45 53%     6 - 11 4 - 3 +5.5 -4.8 +13.0
  Jan 21, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 49-69 27%     6 - 12 4 - 4 -18.5 -21.8 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 72-71 47%     7 - 12 5 - 4 -2.9 +9.6 -12.3
  Jan 28, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 63-73 27%     7 - 13 5 - 5 -8.5 -0.7 -9.2
  Feb 02, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 65-62 63%    
  Feb 09, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 53-69 7%    
  Feb 11, 2023 221   @ Queens L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 16, 2023 291   North Alabama W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 18, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 22, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 56-62 27%    
  Feb 24, 2023 282   @ North Florida L 69-70 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.2 7.9 1.7 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.7 9.3 5.6 0.2 15.8 6th
7th 0.1 5.1 11.4 0.9 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 11.2 4.4 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.1 5.4 7.5 0.4 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.4 1.6 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 1.8 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.6 4.8 14.9 26.2 27.8 17.5 6.8 1.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 1.3% 1.3
11-7 6.8% 6.8
10-8 17.5% 17.5
9-9 27.8% 27.8
8-10 26.2% 26.2
7-11 14.9% 14.9
6-12 4.8% 4.8
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 0.6%