Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#177
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#213
Pace63.6#311
Improvement-0.7#235

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#129
First Shot+1.1#145
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#152
Layup/Dunks+5.5#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#273
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement-1.4#308

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#253
First Shot-1.7#236
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks+1.2#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#313
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+0.8#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.7 15.1
.500 or above 38.6% 50.6% 25.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 86.3% 77.8%
Conference Champion 17.2% 21.1% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 33 - 43 - 11
Quad 410 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 67-96 2%     0 - 1 -5.4 +5.1 -12.0
  Nov 13, 2021 89   @ Murray St. L 59-78 17%     0 - 2 -9.9 -5.6 -5.2
  Nov 17, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 64-73 10%     0 - 3 +4.6 +3.1 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 50-92 2%     0 - 4 -17.5 -12.4 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2021 8   UCLA L 62-75 5%     0 - 5 +4.5 -3.6 +8.1
  Nov 23, 2021 304   Central Michigan W 76-69 75%     1 - 5 -1.0 +2.6 -3.1
  Nov 30, 2021 45   @ West Virginia L 55-74 10%     1 - 6 -6.1 -7.5 -0.2
  Dec 15, 2021 243   @ South Dakota W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 18, 2021 136   @ Miami (OH) L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 21, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 29, 2021 213   @ Bradley L 65-67 45%    
  Jan 04, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 11, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 80-65 91%    
  Jan 15, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 308   North Alabama W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 68-60 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 268   @ Stetson W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 29, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 03, 2022 171   Liberty W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 278   Kennesaw St. W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 09, 2022 288   @ North Florida W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 308   @ North Alabama W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 16, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 222   Lipscomb W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.5 4.0 1.5 0.4 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.8 5.3 2.1 0.2 14.9 2nd
3rd 1.0 5.1 6.3 1.9 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.4 4.1 6.3 1.9 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.8 2.4 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 5.2 2.5 0.2 9.3 6th
7th 0.7 3.8 3.1 0.3 7.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.1 2.3 0.5 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.5 5.2 8.2 12.2 13.7 15.5 15.4 11.6 7.7 4.2 1.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
14-2 94.8% 4.0    3.2 0.8 0.0
13-3 71.6% 5.5    3.3 1.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 37.6% 4.3    1.3 2.0 0.9 0.1
11-5 9.1% 1.4    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 9.6 5.3 1.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 0.4
15-1 1.5% 1.5
14-2 4.2% 4.2
13-3 7.7% 7.7
12-4 11.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 11.5
11-5 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.4
10-6 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 15.4
9-7 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.6
8-8 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.2
7-9 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
6-10 5.2% 5.2
5-11 2.5% 2.5
4-12 1.2% 1.2
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%