Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#295
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#247
Pace66.1#267
Improvement+1.4#76

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#158
First Shot+3.6#85
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#343
Layup/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#252
Freethrows+1.2#121
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#355
First Shot-6.8#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#322
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement+1.0#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 5.2% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 14.6% 31.2% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 36.7% 50.5% 35.4%
Conference Champion 2.3% 4.1% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 6.2% 12.1%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round2.2% 4.5% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 410 - 811 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 21 @Georgia L 59-104 2%     0 - 1 -26.5 -11.0 -11.8
  Sat, Nov 8 71 @Kansas St. L 71-98 6%     0 - 2 -16.2 +0.6 -16.5
  Sat, Nov 15 213 Wofford L 86-94 45%     0 - 3 -14.2 +7.9 -22.1
  Wed, Nov 19 62 @Notre Dame L 79-86 5%     0 - 4 +4.9 +13.0 -8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 362 @The Citadel W 70-58 68%     1 - 4 -0.2 +0.1 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 283 Houston Christian W 74-69 47%     2 - 4 -1.8 +7.8 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 110 @Murray St. L 74-88 9%    
  Sat, Dec 13 191 Northern Kentucky L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Dec 17 206 Chattanooga L 73-75 44%    
  Tue, Dec 23 17 @Kentucky L 64-92 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 284 @West Georgia L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 3 219 @Queens L 76-83 27%    
  Thu, Jan 8 322 Central Arkansas W 77-72 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 North Alabama L 74-75 48%    
  Thu, Jan 15 152 @Lipscomb L 70-80 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 76-81 34%    
  Thu, Jan 22 274 @Jacksonville L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 343 @North Florida W 83-82 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 284 West Georgia W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 219 Queens L 79-80 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 348 Stetson W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 166 Florida Gulf Coast L 76-80 37%    
  Thu, Feb 12 322 @Central Arkansas L 74-75 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 @Austin Peay L 69-78 21%    
  Thu, Feb 19 152 Lipscomb L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 263 Eastern Kentucky W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 221 @North Alabama L 71-78 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 Austin Peay L 72-75 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.0 2.0 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.3 2.8 0.3 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 5.4 3.9 0.5 11.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 5.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.2 1.0 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 3.0 0.9 0.1 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.0 12.6 13.0 13.0 11.6 9.3 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 84.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.8% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 23.5% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.3 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.6% 21.2% 21.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.3% 17.5% 17.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.5% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-6 4.5% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.1
11-7 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.8 0.1 0.3 6.2
10-8 9.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.8
9-9 11.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.3
8-10 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.8
7-11 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.8
6-12 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.5
5-13 10.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-14 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%