Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#310
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#325
Pace62.8#329
Improvement-1.6#263

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#281
First Shot-2.2#242
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#279
Layup/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#317
First Shot-4.3#319
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks-2.2#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#319
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-1.5#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.7% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 97.3% 81.6% 100.0%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 1.0%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 91 - 14
Quad 44 - 85 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 62   @ Washington L 57-91 4%     0 - 1 -22.4 -14.7 -5.6
  Nov 10, 2023 61   @ Kansas St. L 75-83 4%     0 - 2 +3.8 +10.0 -6.0
  Nov 14, 2023 146   @ Chattanooga L 64-72 13%     0 - 3 -4.0 -5.4 +1.0
  Nov 17, 2023 235   @ Bowling Green W 85-67 24%     1 - 3 +17.1 +18.2 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2023 144   Morehead St. L 51-64 24%     1 - 4 -14.0 -11.8 -5.1
  Nov 26, 2023 122   @ West Virginia L 58-62 10%     1 - 5 +1.8 -8.2 +9.8
  Nov 29, 2023 172   @ Louisville L 68-73 16%     1 - 6 -2.8 -6.1 +3.5
  Dec 02, 2023 270   @ Ball St. L 58-67 29%     1 - 7 -11.6 -12.6 +0.4
  Dec 16, 2023 218   Evansville L 61-70 41%     1 - 8 -14.8 -10.0 -5.5
  Dec 20, 2023 52   @ Utah L 43-85 4%     1 - 9 -29.4 -26.2 -1.0
  Dec 22, 2023 22   @ BYU L 59-101 2%     1 - 10 -25.7 -6.3 -21.3
  Dec 30, 2023 125   @ High Point L 85-90 11%     1 - 11 +0.4 +12.8 -12.5
  Jan 04, 2024 217   Austin Peay L 68-84 40%     1 - 12 0 - 1 -21.8 -5.8 -16.9
  Jan 06, 2024 166   Lipscomb L 70-81 31%     1 - 13 0 - 2 -14.0 -1.5 -13.8
  Jan 11, 2024 248   @ North Alabama L 53-69 26%     1 - 14 0 - 3 -17.5 -9.8 -11.5
  Jan 13, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas L 57-59 54%     1 - 15 0 - 4 -11.2 -11.3 -0.2
  Jan 20, 2024 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-82 18%     1 - 16 0 - 5 -10.4 -1.2 -9.7
  Jan 25, 2024 241   North Florida L 63-71 44%     1 - 17 0 - 6 -14.6 -9.9 -5.4
  Jan 27, 2024 276   Jacksonville W 69-63 51%     2 - 17 1 - 6 -2.6 +2.5 -4.4
  Feb 01, 2024 251   @ Kennesaw St. W 96-95 OT 26%     3 - 17 2 - 6 -0.6 +13.2 -14.0
  Feb 03, 2024 267   @ Queens L 75-85 29%     3 - 18 2 - 7 -12.5 -1.8 -10.6
  Feb 07, 2024 196   Stetson L 77-84 38%     3 - 19 2 - 8 -12.0 +6.8 -19.6
  Feb 10, 2024 230   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 52-63 24%     3 - 20 2 - 9 -11.8 -16.1 +3.0
  Feb 17, 2024 180   Eastern Kentucky L 65-75 33%     3 - 21 2 - 10 -13.8 -10.2 -4.0
  Feb 22, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 68-65 73%     4 - 21 3 - 10 -11.7 -13.0 +1.3
  Feb 24, 2024 248   North Alabama W 82-70 45%     5 - 21 4 - 10 +5.0 +7.9 -2.3
  Feb 28, 2024 166   @ Lipscomb L 70-81 15%    
  Mar 01, 2024 217   @ Austin Peay L 64-72 22%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.5 0.5 8th
9th 2.6 2.6 9th
10th 4.9 0.4 5.3 10th
11th 17.2 17.2 11th
12th 67.0 7.4 74.4 12th
Total 67.0 29.4 3.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10 3.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 3.4
5-11 29.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 29.0
4-12 67.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.6 66.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 2.4% 16.0 2.4
Lose Out 67.0% 0.9% 16.0 0.9