Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.0 190
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 187
Pace 69.8 146
Improvement +4.6 27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #188 C D+ C+ D C+
Defense C- #208 D+ C- B C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 288 61% 110 -1.3 232
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 275 32% 340 -2.8 312
Three Pointers 49% 31 34% 173 +4.4 43
1st FG Attempt 1.03 162 +0.3 163
Second Chance 26.9% 281 1.02 178 0.28 262
Turnovers 16.2% 137
Freethrows 0.27 282 68% 320 0.19 313
Total Offense -0.9 188

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 62% 290 +2.1 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 362 38% 168 +3.0 4
Three Pointers 55% 2 35% 226 -7.7 360
1st FG Attempt 1.07 268 -2.7 269
Second Chance 28.4% 94 1.14 322 0.32 217
Turnovers 19.3% 54
Freethrows 0.28 114 72% 185 0.20 120
Total Defense -1.0 208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 154 +0.6 279
Shot Type Accuracy +0.1 172 +2.0 256
Possession Length 17.1 147 17.1 149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 141 0.19 230
Improvement +4.2 #16 +0.4 #161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 21% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 99% 100% 96%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 23% 25% 10%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round20% 21% 17%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 23 - 8
Quad 416 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 4% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -18 F B F C -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 19 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -15 F D+ A+ C+ +1 C- A D+
 Sun, Nov 16 194 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 63% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 F+ -8 D+ D- D+ C- -4 D B F+
 Thu, Nov 20 144 @North Texas L 56 - 74 28% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -11 C- F F C- -3 B- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 229 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 68% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +20 B+ +9 A+ F C A +11 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 326 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 85% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +8 A +12 A A+ C C- -2 D C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 126 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 25% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -18 F -18 F D+ B- C +0 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 81% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +3 B- D- C- A+ +24 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 300 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 62% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -12 F -11 C- F B- C -1 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 14 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 2% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +11 C +1 C C+ A- A +11 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 37 @SMU L 82 - 99 5% -11  0% 3 - 8 C +0 A +11 A A D- F+ -11 D- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 71% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -6 A +13 B A A+ F -19 F D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 333 Stetson W 93 - 73 87% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +6 A +13 B+ A D+ D -6 F D B+
 Thu, Jan 8 283 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 58% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -10 F -10 F C- B+ C +0 D D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 54% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 C+ F D- C -1 F B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 308 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 82% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- F D+ C- -3 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 345 North Florida W 98 - 69 89% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +9 B+ C B B +5 C A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 317 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 67% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 A- +14 A- +10 A+ F B+ B +5 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 218 @Queens W 100 - 90 42% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +10 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 267 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 75% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C -0 C -0 C+ D A+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 344 North Alabama W 81 - 60 89% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +6 C +1 B D C- B +6 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 187 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 38% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C+ B C+ C+ +1 F+ C- A-
 Mon, Feb 9 344 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 76% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 F+ C- F B +4 F+ C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 283 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 78% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 D+ D+ A+ D+ -5 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 317 West Georgia W 82 - 71 84%
 Thu, Feb 19 333 @Stetson W 78 - 72 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 75 - 76 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 152 @Austin Peay L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 218 Queens W 83 - 79 65%
Totals 17 - 12 14 - 4 -2 C -1 C D+ C+ C- -1 D+ C- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C C 35% 16% 49% C+ C D+ C D+ C+ D+ D D C- D+ C C- D+ 33% 13% 55% D+ D+ B- D C- B C+ C C+
1.07 61% 32% 34% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.0 .28 16% .27 68% .19 1.10 62% 38% 35% +2 +1 1.07 28% 1.1 .32 19% .28 72% .20
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B F D- D D C F A+ C+ C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D+ F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F+ F F 21% 12% 67% C F F+ A+ D+ A+ A- C- B+ C+ F B+ D C- 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C A D+ C- F D
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford F+ B+ F C- D 45% 24% 31% B+ D+ B- F D- D+ A- F C- C- F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- B+ B F+ A D- B+
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D F C+ D+ 37% 16% 47% B- C- C F F F A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ B- 43% 25% 32% B+ B- B- B- B- D- F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington B+ B F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% B+ A+ D+ F F C F F F A A- A+ B- A 27% 10% 63% D B+ D- B- C- A+ B- B+ B
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 0 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B- A C A+ A+ C F F F C- F C+ A+ D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A F C- C B F C-
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D- F F A+ D+ B- F C+ F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ A- A+ D+ B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A- B B- 33% 0% 67% B+ B- C F D- C- D C D A+ A+ A+ A A+ 37% 24% 39% D- A+ B B- B A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D+ F B- F F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% C- B+ B+ F F C F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D+ C 22% 22% 56% C- C D+ A C+ A- A D B+ A B+ F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D A+ C- F F A- D+ D D
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A D- C A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A D- B C+ B F+ F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D- F F F B A+ D A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +13 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F+ A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% C- B B- A+ A A+ C- B+ C+ F F C+ F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D B F C-
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A C+ A D+ A+ B+ A+ D D F F F 24% 13% 62% D+ F D- C D B+ F B- F+
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ D- A+ D+ C F C- D D 34% 9% 57% C D B F D C- A- A- A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +9 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D D A+ B- C+ 34% 15% 51% C+ C+ C- F F D- F+ C- D- C D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B+ D+ B- C+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C 43% 25% 33% D+ C- C+ F F D+ B+ C+ B+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F C F+ F D D- D-
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -15 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida B+ B A+ B+ B+ 33% 11% 56% C B+ C+ D+ C B C A B- B B+ F C C 24% 14% 63% B C A- A+ A+ B- F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ F A+ F B+ F C+ F B C+ F A- D 40% 19% 42% F D- F F F A+ F A- F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A+ A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D- A C- D B C-
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C C- A+ C+ C 37% 15% 47% B- C+ F A D A+ B F F+ C B A+ F D 31% 4% 65% F F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D- C+ D C- F C+ F B A C+ C+ B- 43% 12% 45% D C+ A D+ B+ B- C A+ A-
1.22 67% 0% 41% +7 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C+ B B- B C+ B+ C- B+ C+ F C F F 22% 13% 65% A F+ D B- C- A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D- D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% B- F+ F+ A+ C- F A+ D+ A+ B C F B- D- 58% 8% 34% F F+ C D+ C- A+ F F+ F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C+ D C B+ D 41% 10% 49% A- D+ D C+ D+ A+ A D- B+ D+ C- F F F 30% 9% 61% C+ F C+ F C- A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 4.2 11.9 6.8 23.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 17.9 32.0 14.1 65.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.3 5.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.6 1.1 1.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 7.1 23.0 36.2 26.0 6.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.8    4.7 2.1
15-3 45.7% 11.9    4.2 7.7
14-4 11.5% 4.2    0.5 3.0 0.7
13-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 23.0% 23.0 9.4 12.8 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.8% 30.0% 30.0% 13.8 0.6 1.1 0.3 4.8
15-3 26.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.6 0.2 2.5 3.4 0.2 19.7
14-4 36.2% 19.8% 19.8% 14.9 0.1 1.6 4.6 0.9 29.0
13-5 23.0% 16.3% 16.3% 15.2 0.4 2.3 1.1 19.3
12-6 7.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 6.3
11-7 0.9% 17.2% 17.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 14.8 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 13.8 30.9 55.9 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%
Lose Out 0.4%