Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#281
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#274
Pace72.1#112
Improvement+2.8#30

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#317
First Shot-3.9#287
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#277
Layup/Dunks-1.1#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#53
Freethrows-3.5#342
Improvement+0.5#130

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-2.2#248
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#101
Layups/Dunks+2.2#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#349
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement+2.3#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.9% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.1 15.8
.500 or above 15.8% 40.2% 15.3%
.500 or above in Conference 50.7% 67.6% 50.4%
Conference Champion 2.8% 5.9% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 1.4% 5.9%
First Four1.9% 0.6% 2.0%
First Round2.6% 5.3% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 23 @North Carolina L 54-94 2%     0 - 1 -21.8 -13.6 -5.3
  Tue, Nov 11 21 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     0 - 2 -18.4 -12.1 -4.2
  Sun, Nov 16 239 Samford L 77-84 OT 52%     0 - 3 -14.1 -6.1 -7.6
  Thu, Nov 20 146 @North Texas L 56-74 17%     0 - 4 -14.2 -10.3 -4.2
  Sun, Nov 23 242 Eastern Washington W 92-65 54%     1 - 4 +19.5 +10.1 +8.7
  Tue, Nov 25 333 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 75%     2 - 4 +7.5 +12.2 -2.5
  Sat, Nov 29 123 @East Tennessee St. L 57-80 13%     2 - 5 -17.1 -14.4 -2.2
  Wed, Dec 3 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 85-47 70%     3 - 5 +26.0 +4.6 +20.6
  Sun, Dec 7 295 @East Texas A&M L 68-75 42%     3 - 6 -11.3 -9.3 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 11 @Vanderbilt L 72-83 1%     3 - 7 +10.3 +2.1 +8.9
  Sun, Dec 21 38 @SMU L 65-87 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 346 Stetson W 76-68 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 294 @Bellarmine L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 259 @Eastern Kentucky L 73-77 35%    
  Thu, Jan 15 305 Jacksonville W 73-69 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 344 North Florida W 84-76 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 314 @West Georgia L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 209 @North Alabama L 68-74 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 203 @Queens L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 259 Eastern Kentucky W 76-74 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 209 North Alabama L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 142 @Lipscomb L 68-79 16%    
  Thu, Feb 12 294 Bellarmine W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 314 West Georgia W 76-70 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 346 @Stetson W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Feb 25 193 @Austin Peay L 67-74 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 203 Queens L 78-79 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.4 2.9 0.2 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 6.0 3.6 0.5 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.0 4.2 0.6 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.6 10.0 12.0 14.3 14.5 12.8 10.1 6.7 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 80.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.7% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.0% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 20.2% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 27.4% 27.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 17.3% 17.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
14-4 1.9% 15.8% 15.8% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
13-5 3.7% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.3
12-6 6.7% 7.8% 7.8% 15.7 0.1 0.4 6.2
11-7 10.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 0.5 9.5
10-8 12.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 12.3
9-9 14.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 14.1
8-10 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 14.1
7-11 12.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.8
6-12 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 96.5 0.0%