Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.4 #219
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 #225
Pace 68.8 #181
Improvement +3.9 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #209 C D+ C+ D C+
Defense #236 C- C- C+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.22 #109 -1.6 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.59 #349 -3.2 #327
Three Pointers 50% #26 1.02 #187 +4.6 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 -0.1 #177
Freethrows 0.26 #307 69% #298 0.18 #320
Second Chance 26.8% #282 1.04 #190 0.28 #262
Turnovers 15.8% #140
Total Offense -1.5 #209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.26 #307 +2.3 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #355 0.73 #127 +3.1 #4
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.01 #169 -7.0 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #233 -1.6 #229
Freethrows 0.26 #64 73% #230 0.19 #77
Second Chance 28.4% #102 1.20 #339 0.34 #239
Turnovers 17.2% #129
Total Defense -1.9 #236

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #156 0.9% #253
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.5% #183 2.5% #227
Possession Length 17.2 #154 17.0 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.17 #184
Improvement +4.6 #8 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.5% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 68.3% 77.4% 48.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.6% 95.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 14.2% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.5% 3.0%
First Round11.7% 12.8% 9.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 32 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 28 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 3% -24  0 - 1 -22 -16 F B- F -3 C F B
 Tue, Nov 11 21 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0 - 2 -17 -13 F D A+ -2 D+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 239 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 65% +3  0 - 3 -14 -7 D D- D+ -7 D B- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 144 @North Texas L 56 - 74 24% -5  0 - 4 -14 -9 C- F F -6 B- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 241 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 65% +20  1 - 4 +20 +12 A+ F C+ +7 B D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 312 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 79% +16  2 - 4 +9 +15 A+ A+ C- -4 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 130 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 22% -10  2 - 5 -18 -15 F C- C+ -3 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 73% +29  3 - 5 +28 +5 C+ D- C- +22 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 311 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 59% -1  3 - 6 -13 -9 C- F B- -3 B F C
 Sat, Dec 13 12 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 2% -15  3 - 7 +11 +4 C C+ A- +8 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 37 @SMU L 82 - 99 4% -11  3 - 8 -0 +14 A- A- D- -14 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 64% -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -5 +14 B A A+ -19 F C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 329 Stetson W 93 - 73 83% +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +7 +16 B- A C- -9 F D B+
 Thu, Jan 8 303 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 58% +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -11 -8 F C- B+ -3 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 263 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 47% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -3 C+ F D- -3 F B- C+
 Thu, Jan 15 285 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 74% -5  6 - 10 3 - 2 -8 -3 C- F+ D+ -5 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 348 North Florida W 98 - 69 86% +23  7 - 10 4 - 2 +14 +11 B C- B+ +2 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 328 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 65% +9  8 - 10 5 - 2 +14 +12 A F B+ +2 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 199 @Queens W 100 - 90 35% -1  9 - 10 6 - 2 +10 +18 A+ C B -8 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 263 Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 75 69%
 Wed, Feb 4 330 North Alabama W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 169 @Lipscomb L 73 - 79 30%
 Mon, Feb 9 330 @North Alabama W 76 - 72 66%
 Thu, Feb 12 303 Bellarmine W 82 - 74 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 328 West Georgia W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 329 @Stetson W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 232 @Florida Gulf Coast L 76 - 78 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 172 @Austin Peay L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Queens W 81 - 79 58%
Totals 15 - 14 12 - 6 -3 -2 C D+ C+ -2 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.7 0.8 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.3 6.4 0.8 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.7 12.1 8.9 1.4 0.0 27.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.4 14.1 9.3 1.4 0.0 33.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 10.8 19.7 24.2 21.1 12.7 4.5 0.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 82.2% 3.7    2.1 1.4 0.2
14-4 38.9% 4.9    1.1 2.5 1.2 0.1
13-5 7.2% 1.5    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 4.1 4.5 2.1 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 28.0% 28.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 4.5% 24.4% 24.4% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 3.4
14-4 12.7% 18.2% 18.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 10.4
13-5 21.1% 14.6% 14.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.7 1.1 18.0
12-6 24.2% 12.2% 12.2% 15.6 0.0 1.1 1.8 21.3
11-7 19.7% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.5 1.4 17.8
10-8 10.8% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 10.0
9-9 4.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.3 4.4
8-10 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 15.3 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.6 2.4 38.1 57.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%