Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.0 177
Results Rating -0.9 174
Consistency 0.17 271
Pace 69.3 156
Improvement +4.7 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C- 206 D C- B B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 297 C+ 60% 119 -1.6 242
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 293 D- 32% 338 -2.9 312
Three Pointers 50% 26 C 34% 160 +4.8 37
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 137 C +0.0 175
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 159
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 266 C+ 1.06 128 C- 0.29 225
Turnovers from Steals C+ 8.8% 116
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 183
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 136
Freethrows D 0.27 295 D+ 70% 271 D 0.19 309
Total Offense C +0.1 162

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 175 C 11.0% 178
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 178 C- 6.1% 252
Three Pointers C+ 86% 149 C 0.9% 183
Total B- 61% 75 C+ 5.2% 130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 D 62% 299 -1.3 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 B- 36% 107 -3.3 3
Three Pointers 54% 2 D+ 36% 282 +8.2 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 296 D+ +2.8 289
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 300
Second Chance B- 28.2% 92 D- 1.15 328 C- 0.32 219
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 31
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 183
Turnovers B 19.3% 47
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 C 72% 193 B- 0.20 98
Total Defense C- -1.1 206

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 323 D+ 7.8% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 295 C+ 6.2% 97
Three Pointers D 89% 328 D 0.2% 329
Total F 68% 356 D 3.5% 329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 173 17.0 122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 136 0.20 273
Consistency 0.16 354 0.11 113
Improvement +5.5 5 -0.7 230

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 194 175 153
Results Rating Rank 207 177 133
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 27% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 22% 34% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 27% 22%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Queens (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 23 - 7
Quad 416 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 5% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -17 F B- F C -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 15 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -16 F C- A+ B- +3 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 192 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 65% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 D D- D+ D+ -4 D B+ F+
 Thu, Nov 20 138 @North Texas L 56 - 74 30% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -13 D F F C -1 B B D
 Sun, Nov 23 183 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 64% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +22 A- +10 A+ F C- A+ +12 A- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 323 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 87% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +8 A- +11 A A+ C C- -2 D C C+
 Sat, Nov 29 136 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 30% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -19 F -17 F D+ C+ C -1 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 300 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 83% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +2 B D D+ A+ +24 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 309 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 68% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -13 F -12 C- F C+ C -0 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 17 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 3% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +11 C +1 C C+ B+ A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 21 31 @SMU L 82 - 99 5% -11  0% 3 - 8 C +0 A +11 A A D- F -11 D F B
 Thu, Jan 1 251 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 75% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -6 A +13 B A A F -18 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 326 Stetson W 93 - 73 88% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +6 A +13 B+ A D+ D -6 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 64% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -11 F -12 F C- B+ C+ +1 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 286 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 62% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C+ F D- C- -2 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 307 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 84% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- F D C- -3 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 338 North Florida W 98 - 69 90% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ C B B +4 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 312 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 69% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 A- +15 A- +11 A+ F B+ B +5 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 203 @Queens W 100 - 90 44% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +11 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 286 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 81% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C D A+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 341 North Alabama W 81 - 60 90% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 B D+ C- B +5 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 199 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 43% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C+ B+ C+ C -0 F+ D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 341 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 78% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -2 D -6 F+ C+ F B +4 F C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 292 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 82% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -3 C +1 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 14 312 West Georgia W 79 - 62 85% +9  97% 15 - 10 12 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 D+ C- B- B+ +7 D+ B A-
 Thu, Feb 19 326 @Stetson W 88 - 76 74% +15  95% 16 - 10 13 - 2 C+ +4 A +13 B+ C- C D- -8 F F A
 Sat, Feb 21 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 75 OT 54% +1  53% 16 - 11 13 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -8 F B C+ B- +2 B+ D- F
 Wed, Feb 25 167 @Austin Peay W 93 - 88 36% -5  13% 17 - 11 14 - 3 B- +8 A+ +22 A+ A+ A F -15 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 28 203 Queens W 85 - 81 66%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 3 -1 C +0 C+ C C+ C- -1 C D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C C 35% 28% 50% C+ C D+ C+ C- C+ D D+ D C- D B- D+ D+ 34% 13% 54% D D B- D- C- B B- C B-
1.09 60% 32% 34% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.1 .29 16% .27 70% .19 1.10 62% 36% 36% +3 +1 1.09 28% 1.1 .32 19% .28 72% .19
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B- F D D D C F A+ C+ C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F+ F F 21% 12% 67% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A- C- B+ B- F B D C- 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C+ A+ C- C- F+ D+
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford D- B+ F C- D- 45% 24% 31% B+ D B- F D- D+ A- F C- D+ F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- A- B+ F+ A+ D A-
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D- F C D- 37% 16% 47% B D C F F F A+ F A+ C F A+ A+ B- 43% 25% 32% B+ B B- B- B D F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington A- B F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ C- F F C- F F F A+ A A+ B- A 27% 10% 63% D+ A- D- B+ C- A+ B B+ B+
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A- A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B A C A+ A+ C F F F C- F C+ A+ D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A+ F C C+ B F C-
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D F F A+ D+ C+ F C F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ B+ A+ D B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A- B B- 33% 0% 67% B+ B C F D D+ D C D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% F+ A+ B B B A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D- 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D- F C+ F+ F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% C- B+ B+ F F C+ F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D+ C 22% 22% 56% C- C D+ A+ C+ B+ A D A- A B+ F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D- A+ C F F A D+ D D+
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A D- C A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A D- B+ C B F F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D F F F B A+ D- A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F+ A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% C- B B- A+ A A C B+ C+ F F C+ F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D+ B F C-
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B+ 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A B- A D+ A+ A- A+ D D F F+ F 24% 13% 62% D+ F D- C D+ B+ F B- F
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ F+ A D C+ F D+ D D- 34% 9% 57% C+ D B F D+ C A- A A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D- D A+ B- C 34% 15% 51% B- C+ C F F D- F C F+ C- D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B D C+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C 43% 25% 33% D+ C- C F F D B+ B- A- C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F C+ F+ F D F+ D-
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida A- B A+ B+ A- 33% 11% 56% C B+ B- D+ C B C A B- B B+ F C C- 24% 14% 63% B C A A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ F A+ F B+ F C+ F B C+ F A- D+ 40% 19% 42% F D- F F F A+ F B- F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D A C- C- B C
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C- C- A+ C+ C- 37% 15% 47% B- C F A D A+ B- F F C B A+ F D- 31% 4% 65% F F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C+ B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D B- D+ C- F B- F B A C+ C+ B- 43% 12% 45% D C+ A+ D B+ B- C+ A+ A-
1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C+ B B- B+ C+ A- C+ A- C F C F F 22% 13% 65% A- F+ D- C D+ A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% C+ F+ D- A+ C+ F A+ C- A+ B C F B- F+ 58% 8% 34% F F C+ D C- A+ F F+ F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C D C B D- 41% 10% 49% B+ D+ D B- D+ A+ A F B D+ D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F B- D- C A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
14		 West Georgia C- D F B+ D 50% 10% 40% B D+ B- D- C- B- D- A+ C B+ B D C- C- 41% 29% 31% F+ D+ B+ B- B A- C+ A+ A-
1.15 54% 20% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 13% .28 82% .23 0.90 50% 43% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 20% .26 50% .13
Feb
19		 Stetson A A A+ B+ A- 31% 15% 54% C B+ B+ F C- C A B- A D- F A+ F F 20% 22% 59% B F B+ F F A A+ F A-
1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27 1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
21		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ F+ F F+ F 34% 15% 51% C F D A+ B C+ D- B D B- D+ A A+ A 40% 17% 43% F B+ B F D- F B+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23 1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11
Feb
25		 Austin Peay A+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 4% 55% A A+ F A+ A+ A C A+ B+ F D- A+ F F 50% 2% 48% F F F A+ C A+ F F F
1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26 1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 22.3 22.3 1st
2nd 34.1 43.6 77.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 34.1 65.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.8% 22.3    22.3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 22.3% 22.3 22.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 65.9% 26.9% 26.9% 14.4 1.2 9.3 7.0 0.2 48.2
14-4 34.1% 22.6% 22.6% 14.9 0.1 1.7 5.1 0.8 26.4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 14.5 74.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.7% 100.0% 14.4 6.7 52.4 39.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.4%
Lose Out 8.6%