Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#340
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#315
Pace75.6#49
Improvement+0.8#117

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#326
First Shot-4.9#311
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#249
Layup/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#255
Freethrows-3.4#339
Improvement+0.7#103

Defense
Total Defense-7.0#342
First Shot-6.8#341
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks-6.1#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-2.8#318
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 14.8% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.5% 62.0% 60.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 44 - 115 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis L 61-96 2%     0 - 1 -23.8 -13.1 -7.3
  Nov 12, 2021 103   @ Butler L 53-85 4%     0 - 2 -24.7 -10.9 -15.7
  Nov 17, 2021 3   @ Baylor L 47-92 0.4%    0 - 3 -23.2 -23.8 +8.0
  Nov 20, 2021 170   Oral Roberts W 70-67 18%     1 - 3 -0.2 -11.3 +11.0
  Nov 24, 2021 285   @ New Orleans L 63-90 18%     1 - 4 -30.5 -20.5 -7.1
  Nov 25, 2021 261   VMI L 67-73 24%     1 - 5 -11.5 -10.2 -1.3
  Nov 26, 2021 293   Presbyterian L 66-75 29%     1 - 6 -16.3 -2.6 -14.4
  Dec 01, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 65-94 0.3%   
  Dec 04, 2021 229   @ Arkansas St. L 67-80 13%    
  Dec 14, 2021 289   Arkansas Little Rock L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 18, 2021 93   @ Missouri St. L 67-89 2%    
  Dec 29, 2021 80   @ Texas A&M L 58-81 2%    
  Jan 04, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-92 7%    
  Jan 08, 2022 222   Lipscomb L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 11, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 65-80 9%    
  Jan 15, 2022 308   North Alabama L 74-76 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. L 66-77 16%    
  Jan 22, 2022 171   Liberty L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 27, 2022 288   @ North Florida L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville L 63-74 18%    
  Feb 03, 2022 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 75-84 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 268   Stetson L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 12, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-80 6%    
  Feb 16, 2022 177   Bellarmine L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky L 79-89 20%    
  Feb 23, 2022 308   @ North Alabama L 71-79 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb L 70-83 13%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 3 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.8 0.2 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 2.0 5.7 4.5 0.7 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.5 4.5 9.1 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.0 11th
12th 6.3 13.6 14.3 8.8 2.3 0.2 45.5 12th
Total 6.3 14.1 18.8 20.0 16.3 11.2 7.1 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 4.2% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.0% 0.0
10-6 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-7 0.9% 0.9
8-8 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-9 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
6-10 7.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-11 11.2% 11.2
4-12 16.3% 16.3
3-13 20.0% 20.0
2-14 18.8% 18.8
1-15 14.1% 14.1
0-16 6.3% 6.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.2%