Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#319
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#271
Pace78.6#19
Improvement-0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#279
First Shot-3.2#280
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks-0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#109
Freethrows-4.1#357
Improvement+0.1#77

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#327
First Shot-6.0#336
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-7.0#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#87
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement-0.2#275
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.1% 5.3% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 11.8% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 34.4% 29.3% 38.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 48 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 95   @ Wichita St. L 55-79 6%     0 - 1 -15.8 -15.3 +1.1
  Nov 14, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-71 62%     1 - 1 -1.8 -10.6 +7.4
  Nov 18, 2022 212   Niagara L 64-73 25%     1 - 2 -11.6 -6.2 -5.7
  Nov 19, 2022 225   Rider W 90-85 27%     2 - 2 +1.5 +6.8 -5.7
  Nov 26, 2022 282   Northwestern St. L 66-74 OT 48%     2 - 3 -17.1 -18.3 +1.9
  Nov 27, 2022 300   Idaho St. W 81-77 54%     3 - 3 -6.7 +1.5 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2022 171   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-85 12%     3 - 4 -12.1 +5.0 -18.0
  Dec 06, 2022 272   Arkansas St. L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 10, 2022 105   @ Oral Roberts L 77-94 5%    
  Dec 17, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma L 60-83 1%    
  Dec 20, 2022 320   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 81-84 39%    
  Dec 28, 2022 53   @ TCU L 64-86 2%    
  Dec 31, 2022 215   @ Kennesaw St. L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 02, 2023 101   Florida Gulf Coast L 72-84 14%    
  Jan 05, 2023 247   Eastern Kentucky L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 07, 2023 277   @ Austin Peay L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 12, 2023 243   @ Queens L 74-83 22%    
  Jan 14, 2023 126   @ Liberty L 66-82 8%    
  Jan 18, 2023 325   North Alabama W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 21, 2023 325   @ North Alabama L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 26, 2023 245   North Florida L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 28, 2023 136   Jacksonville L 62-71 21%    
  Feb 02, 2023 101   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 69-87 6%    
  Feb 04, 2023 203   @ Stetson L 73-84 16%    
  Feb 09, 2023 163   Lipscomb L 79-86 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 277   Austin Peay L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 16, 2023 247   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-83 23%    
  Feb 18, 2023 233   @ Bellarmine L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 22, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 24, 2023 215   Kennesaw St. L 76-80 36%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.7 1.7 0.1 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.2 2.9 0.2 15.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 5.5 8.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 19.8 13th
14th 1.0 4.1 7.4 6.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 22.9 14th
Total 1.0 4.2 9.0 13.2 15.7 16.1 13.8 10.5 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 83.3% 0.0    0.0
15-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
9-9 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 7.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
5-13 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-14 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 13.2% 13.2
2-16 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.0
1-17 4.2% 4.2
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%