Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#281
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#289
Pace71.8#118
Improvement+2.3#57

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#302
First Shot-4.2#299
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#229
Layup/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#48
Freethrows-3.7#349
Improvement+1.4#78

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#217
First Shot-2.2#244
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#142
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#344
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement+0.9#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 6.1% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 18.0% 28.5% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 54.4% 69.3% 43.0%
Conference Champion 3.7% 6.8% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.9% 6.8%
First Four2.5% 2.8% 2.3%
First Round3.4% 4.7% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 21 @North Carolina L 54-94 2%     0 - 1 -21.0 -13.0 -5.1
  Tue, Nov 11 24 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     0 - 2 -18.6 -13.2 -3.4
  Sun, Nov 16 231 Samford L 77-84 OT 52%     0 - 3 -14.0 -5.6 -8.0
  Thu, Nov 20 141 @North Texas L 56-74 16%     0 - 4 -14.0 -9.3 -5.1
  Sun, Nov 23 259 Eastern Washington W 92-65 58%     1 - 4 +18.5 +9.3 +8.4
  Tue, Nov 25 321 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 73%     2 - 4 +8.3 +12.4 -2.0
  Sat, Nov 29 136 @East Tennessee St. L 57-80 15%     2 - 5 -18.5 -16.3 -1.7
  Wed, Dec 3 308 Arkansas Little Rock W 85-47 68%     3 - 5 +26.6 +5.7 +20.2
  Sun, Dec 7 316 @East Texas A&M L 68-75 48%     3 - 6 -13.1 -10.0 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 8 @Vanderbilt L 72-83 1%     3 - 7 +12.2 +4.5 +8.4
  Sun, Dec 21 37 @SMU L 82-99 3%     3 - 8 -0.8 +14.7 -15.4
  Thu, Jan 1 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Jan 3 349 Stetson W 77-68 80%    
  Thu, Jan 8 268 @Bellarmine L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 255 @Eastern Kentucky L 72-76 36%    
  Thu, Jan 15 317 Jacksonville W 73-67 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 347 North Florida W 86-77 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 315 @West Georgia L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 246 @North Alabama L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 233 @Queens L 77-82 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 Eastern Kentucky W 75-73 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 246 North Alabama W 72-71 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 @Lipscomb L 70-80 19%    
  Thu, Feb 12 268 Bellarmine W 76-74 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 315 West Georgia W 77-71 69%    
  Thu, Feb 19 349 @Stetson W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-80 24%    
  Wed, Feb 25 197 @Austin Peay L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 233 Queens W 80-79 52%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.7 1.2 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.5 2.9 0.2 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.0 3.7 0.4 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.1 0.6 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.9 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.2 5.8 8.7 12.0 14.0 14.9 13.1 11.3 7.3 4.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 94.4% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 74.0% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.3% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.9% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 36.4% 36.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 27.0% 27.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 18.3% 18.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.2% 16.5% 16.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9
13-5 4.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.8
12-6 7.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.2 0.5 6.6
11-7 11.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.4
10-8 13.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.3
9-9 14.9% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.6 14.3
8-10 14.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.7
7-11 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 8.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.6
5-13 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 95.4 0.0%