Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#212
Pace62.4#329
Improvement-0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#308
First Shot-6.7#336
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#83
Layup/Dunks-0.8#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#281
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-0.5#238

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#180
First Shot-1.6#236
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#94
Layups/Dunks-7.8#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#50
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement+0.4#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 32.1% 38.5% 15.8%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 49.7% 34.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 6.6% 11.9%
First Four2.1% 2.3% 1.7%
First Round3.8% 4.5% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 611 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 279   N.C. A&T W 63-54 65%     1 - 0 -0.4 -11.0 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2021 65   @ Central Florida L 54-63 8%     1 - 1 +1.4 -6.1 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 85   @ Minnesota L 44-55 9%     1 - 2 -1.8 -17.3 +14.4
  Dec 02, 2021 348   @ Charleston Southern W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 07, 2021 158   @ Georgia L 62-71 20%    
  Dec 11, 2021 280   UNC Wilmington W 64-60 65%    
  Dec 14, 2021 245   @ Southern Miss L 60-64 36%    
  Dec 21, 2021 214   @ Pittsburgh L 59-65 29%    
  Jan 02, 2022 182   @ Campbell L 55-62 25%    
  Jan 05, 2022 277   @ Kennesaw St. L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 190   Florida Gulf Coast L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 270   Stetson W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 288   @ North Florida L 66-67 44%    
  Jan 18, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 55-63 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 176   @ Bellarmine L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 27, 2022 219   Lipscomb W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 308   @ North Alabama L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 148   @ Jacksonville St. L 58-68 20%    
  Feb 09, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 171   Liberty L 58-60 43%    
  Feb 16, 2022 270   @ Stetson L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 19, 2022 277   Kennesaw St. W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 23, 2022 288   North Florida W 69-64 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 190   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 5.4 2.3 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.8 3.7 0.3 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.6 0.7 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 4.1 4.8 1.1 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.6 4.4 1.5 0.1 10.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.1 1.3 0.2 8.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.2 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.0 8.1 10.8 13.2 13.9 12.9 11.1 8.7 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 89.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-3 67.6% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1
12-4 34.7% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 6.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 44.3% 44.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-2 0.7% 24.0% 24.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-3 1.9% 25.5% 25.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4
12-4 3.6% 17.4% 17.4% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.0
11-5 6.2% 12.3% 12.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 5.4
10-6 8.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 7.9
9-7 11.1% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.3
8-8 12.9% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.4
7-9 13.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 13.5
6-10 13.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.9
5-11 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-12 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.1
3-13 5.0% 5.0
2-14 2.6% 2.6
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.4 95.1 0.0%