Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.0 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #281
Pace 63.1 #333
Improvement -1.6 #269

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #313 C- F D C- C
Defense #299 F D+ C+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.17 #173 -1.0 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.70 #240 -1.0 #229
Three Pointers 44% #122 0.93 #273 -0.3 #189
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.3 #243
Freethrows 14.2 #314 66% #324 9.4 #337
Second Chance 28.8% #239 0.93 #302 0.27 #281
Turnovers 17.5% #232
Total Offense -5.2 #313

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.35 #345 -4.6 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #105 0.71 #133 -0.4 #221
Three Pointers 37% #282 1.22 #357 -1.9 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #349 -6.9 #349
Freethrows 18.6 #248 75% #298 14.0 #277
Second Chance 28.6% #107 1.04 #189 0.30 #138
Turnovers 14.7% #294
Total Defense -3.8 #299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #182 -0.3% #140
Shot Type Make % Effect -4.6% #241 13.9% #353
Possession Length 19.2 #343 17.2 #176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #331 0.15 #109
Improvement +0.9 #116 -2.6 #321

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.7% 6.8% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 23.8% 36.7% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 8.8% 21.9%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 1.1%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 37 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 2%     -9.1   0 - 1 -0.8 +1.1 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 91 @High Point L 64-85 6%     -10.7   0 - 2 -12.0 -6.9 -5.4
  Sat, Nov 15 335 @VMI W 69-67 45%     3.1   1 - 2 -5.8 -5.2 -0.5
  Tue, Nov 18 93 @George Mason L 57-79 6%     -12.1   1 - 3 -13.3 -8.3 -6.5
  Mon, Nov 24 282 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 41%     -2.1   2 - 3 -1.7 -2.4 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 132 Pacific L 53-68 16%     -7.1   2 - 4 -13.4 -10.6 -5.0
  Tue, Dec 2 336 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 69%     0.0   3 - 4 -11.3 +1.4 -12.9
  Sat, Dec 6 161 @Florida International L 65-88 14%     -18.3   3 - 5 -20.3 -6.1 -14.7
  Sun, Dec 14 43 @Texas A&M L 75-112 2%     -24.1   3 - 6 -21.7 +2.8 -21.4
  Wed, Dec 17 336 @Florida A&M L 65-72 47%     -8.7   3 - 7 -15.3 -6.2 -9.6
  Mon, Dec 22 107 @Florida St. L 63-87 7%     -18.3   3 - 8 -16.6 -2.2 -16.3
  Thu, Jan 1 160 @Lipscomb L 57-76 14%     -9.4   3 - 9 0 - 1 -16.3 -2.7 -17.1
  Sat, Jan 3 205 @Austin Peay L 68-71 19%     -2.0   3 - 10 0 - 2 -2.8 -1.2 -1.6
  Thu, Jan 8 226 Queens L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 308 West Georgia W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Jan 15 254 @Central Arkansas L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 288 @North Alabama L 64-69 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 291 Bellarmine W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 265 Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 50%    
  Thu, Jan 29 160 Lipscomb L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 172 Florida Gulf Coast L 70-75 32%    
  Thu, Feb 5 226 @Queens L 72-80 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 308 @West Georgia L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Feb 12 349 @Stetson W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 347 North Florida W 81-75 71%    
  Thu, Feb 19 172 @Florida Gulf Coast L 67-78 16%    
  Sat, Feb 21 205 Austin Peay L 67-70 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 349 Stetson W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 347 @North Florida W 78-77 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.4 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.5 2.7 0.2 12.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 6.8 4.3 0.4 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 6.4 5.1 0.7 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 5.4 5.4 1.2 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 4.3 4.6 1.3 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.1 9.0 12.9 15.8 16.2 14.5 10.7 6.7 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 27.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.7% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7
12-6 1.8% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6
11-7 3.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.5
10-8 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 6.4
9-9 10.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 10.3
8-10 14.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 14.2
7-11 16.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 16.0
6-12 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.7
5-13 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-14 9.0% 9.0
3-15 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 98.3 0.0%