Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#253
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#159
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#301
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#180
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 17.0% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 42.7% 72.9% 41.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.4% 85.2% 67.6%
Conference Champion 9.7% 19.3% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 0.8% 3.0%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 2.0%
First Round8.5% 17.1% 8.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 412 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 56   @ Miami (FL) L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 11, 2025 108   @ High Point L 64-76 13%    
  Nov 15, 2025 296   @ VMI L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 18, 2025 99   @ George Mason L 58-71 12%    
  Nov 24, 2025 246   Bethune-Cookman L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 02, 2025 332   Florida A&M W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 06, 2025 210   @ Florida International L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 14, 2025 35   @ Texas A&M L 58-79 3%    
  Dec 17, 2025 332   @ Florida A&M W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 22, 2025 78   @ Florida St. L 64-79 10%    
  Jan 01, 2026 188   @ Lipscomb L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 03, 2026 276   @ Austin Peay L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 08, 2026 245   Queens W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 345   West Georgia W 75-65 79%    
  Jan 15, 2026 358   @ Central Arkansas W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 17, 2026 195   @ North Alabama L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 22, 2026 320   Bellarmine W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 24, 2026 174   Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 29, 2026 188   Lipscomb L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 31, 2026 181   Florida Gulf Coast L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 05, 2026 245   @ Queens L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 07, 2026 345   @ West Georgia W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 12, 2026 350   @ Stetson W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 14, 2026 330   North Florida W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 19, 2026 181   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 21, 2026 276   Austin Peay W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 26, 2026 350   Stetson W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 28, 2026 330   @ North Florida W 78-76 56%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.3 9.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 3.3 0.7 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.0 7.4 9.6 11.4 11.8 11.5 10.4 8.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.6% 1.2    1.1 0.0
16-2 90.6% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.6% 2.8    1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.1% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
13-5 10.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.7 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 37.5% 37.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.2% 42.7% 42.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 2.3% 37.6% 37.6% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-3 4.2% 29.5% 29.5% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.0
14-4 6.5% 20.6% 20.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 5.1
13-5 8.8% 16.3% 16.3% 16.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 7.4
12-6 10.4% 11.6% 11.6% 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 9.2
11-7 11.5% 7.1% 7.1% 17.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 10.7
10-8 11.8% 4.8% 4.8% 18.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.2
9-9 11.4% 2.9% 2.9% 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.0
8-10 9.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
7-11 7.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.3
6-12 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-13 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.3 91.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%