Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.9 312
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 308
Pace 60.9 351
Improvement +1.4 132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 320 D C- C- D+ C
Defense D+ 266 D- C+ D+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 178 D 53% 299 -2.0 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 183 C- 37% 206 +0.1 173
Three Pointers 40% 203 D- 30% 327 -2.9 278
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 200 D -4.6 325
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 319
Second Chance C- 28.2% 247 C 1.04 149 C- 0.29 219
Turnovers C- 17.9% 251
Freethrows D+ 0.28 274 C- 71% 221 D+ 0.20 271
Total Offense D -5.9 320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 D 64% 322 +5.8 350
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 180 C+ 37% 151 -0.2 172
Three Pointers 35% 329 F+ 39% 353 -0.3 165
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 247 D- +4.8 340
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 340
Second Chance C 29.9% 161 B- 0.96 86 C+ 0.29 111
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 277
Freethrows D- 0.37 329 B 70% 52 D 0.25 307
Total Defense D+ -3.0 266

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 352 17.2 169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 327 0.15 93
Improvement +0.0 #187 +1.4 #108

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 12% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 0% 6%
First Four1% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 25.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 410 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 2% -9  5% 0 - 1 C -1 C- -2 B D C B- +2 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 89 @High Point L 64 - 85 6% -11  17% 0 - 2 D- -12 F+ -9 F D+ B- D+ -4 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 358 @VMI W 69 - 67 65% +3  84% 1 - 2 D -11 F -11 D A- F C +0 D F A
 Tue, Nov 18 99 @George Mason L 57 - 79 7% -12  0% 1 - 3 D- -14 F -10 D C- F D -5 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 239 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 33% -2  26% 2 - 3 C +1 C- -1 C+ D B- C+ +2 C A F
 Tue, Nov 25 118 Pacific L 53 - 68 13% -7  5% 2 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F F+ B C- -2 B- B- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 333 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 69% -0  49% 3 - 4 D -11 C +0 D C+ A+ F -11 F B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 192 @Florida International L 65 - 88 17% -18  3% 3 - 5 F -22 D- -8 F B- F F -15 F A D+
 Sun, Dec 14 33 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  2% 3 - 6 F -19 C +0 A- D- F F -17 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 17 333 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 47% -9  0% 3 - 7 F+ -15 D- -8 D+ F C F+ -8 F A F
 Mon, Dec 22 86 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 5% -18  0% 3 - 8 D- -14 D+ -3 D+ F A+ F -13 D- D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 1 194 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 18% -9  2% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -18 D- -7 D- C+ F F -15 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 149 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 13% -2  22% 3 - 10 0 - 2 C +0 D -4 B B+ F B +5 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 8 210 Queens L 51 - 77 38% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -32 F -28 F C- F D -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 318 West Georgia W 75 - 43 65% +17  99% 4 - 11 1 - 3 A +19 B +6 A- F A+ A+ +19 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 185 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 17% +5  70% 4 - 12 1 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 F B A+ B- +2 D A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 339 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 50% +13  85% 5 - 12 2 - 4 B+ +13 A +13 B- A+ C- C+ +1 C C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 291 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 56% -1  32% 5 - 13 2 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -9 F D+ B F+ -9 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 273 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 52% -3  13% 6 - 13 3 - 5 C- -5 C- -1 C A F D+ -4 D F A
 Thu, Jan 29 194 Lipscomb W 70 - 65 35% +8  97% 7 - 13 4 - 5 C -0 B- +4 B- C A+ C- -3 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 49 - 68 46% -3  44% 7 - 14 4 - 6 F -27 F -28 F F F C -0 B- C F+
 Thu, Feb 5 210 @Queens L 84 - 93 19% -11  1% 7 - 15 4 - 7 D -9 C+ +3 C+ C D F -12 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 318 @West Georgia L 73 - 87 42% -6  4% 7 - 16 4 - 8 F -21 D+ -4 F+ B D+ F -18 D F F
 Wed, Feb 11 327 @Stetson L 62 - 67 45% -5  6% 7 - 17 4 - 9 D- -13 F -11 F C- C+ C- -3 D- B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 343 North Florida W 63 - 56 73% +4  92% 8 - 17 5 - 9 D -8 F -13 F A D+ B+ +6 D+ C+ A-
 Wed, Feb 18 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 149 Austin Peay L 66 - 72 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 327 Stetson W 71 - 66 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 343 @North Florida W 77 - 76 51%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9 D -6 A D C D+ -3 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- D- D 39% 37% 40% C D C- C C- C- D+ C- D+ D+ D C+ F+ D- 44% 20% 35% D+ D- C B- C+ D+ D- B D
1.00 53% 37% 30% -5 0 0.92 28% 1.0 .29 18% .28 71% .20 1.13 64% 37% 39% +5 0 1.13 30% 1.0 .29 15% .37 70% .19
Nov
3		 Miami (FL) C- A+ C- D- B- 33% 17% 50% B B F+ B+ D C D+ F F+ B- F C A+ B- 61% 11% 27% F C B F F A F F F
0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12 1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49
Nov
11		 High Point F+ F+ F D- F 32% 8% 60% B- F C D- D+ B- D+ D D D+ B- A+ C- B+ 48% 13% 38% C- B A- B- A- F F C- F
0.93 50% 0% 30% -9 +1 0.86 32% 0.9 .29 20% .29 69% .20 1.23 56% 14% 35% -4 +2 0.98 25% 1.1 .28 4% .46 77% .35
Nov
15		 VMI F B- F+ D+ D- 40% 13% 47% B D C- A+ A- F F F F C B D D+ D- 35% 24% 41% B+ D D- F F A A- F B
1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11 1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17
Nov
18		 George Mason F F+ A+ F F+ 50% 19% 31% A- D A+ F C- F A- A+ A+ D F C F F 47% 21% 32% D+ F C- A+ A+ B+ F A F
0.87 48% 50% 23% -8 +1 0.88 39% 0.6 .23 29% .32 87% .28 1.21 83% 38% 58% +23 +1 1.50 32% 0.4 .12 20% .67 63% .42
Nov
24		 Bethune-Cookman C- B+ F D+ C+ 53% 13% 34% B C+ C- D- D B- A+ F C+ C+ F C A+ C- 36% 28% 36% B+ C B A+ A F F A+ C
1.07 64% 17% 31% -1 +2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .45 56% .25 0.99 72% 36% 22% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.7 .16 14% .43 50% .22
Nov
25		 Pacific F A+ F F F 30% 40% 30% F+ F F+ F F+ B C+ C+ C+ C- F F A+ B- 32% 18% 50% C+ B- F A+ B- F+ F B- F
0.87 79% 21% 14% -10 -3 0.77 17% 0.8 .14 13% .34 72% .25 1.12 71% 63% 23% 0 0 1.02 50% 0.6 .31 16% .45 74% .34
Dec
2		 Florida A&M C C- F B D 39% 12% 49% C+ D C C+ C+ A+ D- F F F F A+ F F 33% 28% 39% B- F A+ F B+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.15 57% 14% 38% 0 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20 1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05
Dec
6		 Florida International D- F F C F 23% 19% 58% D- F A- D B- F D+ F D- F F+ A+ F F 48% 18% 34% D+ F A+ C+ A D+ F F F
0.95 33% 30% 33% -8 -1 0.85 43% 0.9 .41 26% .28 64% .18 1.29 67% 25% 67% +18 +1 1.41 23% 1.0 .23 16% .52 77% .40
Dec
14		 Texas A&M C D+ A+ B B+ 39% 12% 49% B+ A- D+ F D- F C+ A+ B F D F F F 43% 17% 41% B+ F F F F C+ D+ A- C
0.98 53% 67% 38% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.7 .18 25% .30 82% .24 1.46 65% 67% 50% +18 +1 1.39 52% 1.2 .64 16% .36 70% .25
Dec
17		 Florida A&M D- F F A+ D- 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ F F F C D D+ D F+ F D C- F 39% 31% 31% B- F C A+ A F F A F
1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23 1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30
Dec
22		 Florida St. D+ A+ A+ F C- 15% 32% 53% F D+ D F F A+ D C- D F F B- C F+ 29% 12% 59% B- D- F A+ D+ D+ F D- F
0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17 1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 0 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35
Jan
1		 Lipscomb D- B- F+ D- D- 27% 24% 49% D+ D- B+ D C+ F C- D- D+ F F A- F F 40% 16% 44% B- F B A+ A F B F C
0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18 1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18
Jan
3		 Austin Peay D B- D A+ B 38% 20% 42% C B C- A+ B+ F A F C+ B C- A+ A A- 44% 20% 35% C- B+ B+ A+ A F D- D F+
0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21 1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28
Jan
8		 Queens F F F F F 48% 16% 36% B- F C- C- C- F B- F F D B- F F F 44% 4% 52% F F B+ A+ A+ C+ C- A+ B+
0.78 43% 29% 25% -14 +1 0.77 32% 1.0 .32 20% .38 45% .17 1.18 57% 50% 52% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.4 .11 17% .31 59% .18
Jan
10		 West Georgia B F A+ A+ A 43% 26% 32% F+ A- F A+ F A+ D- A D+ A+ F A+ A+ A 40% 31% 29% D B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
1.27 45% 58% 60% +12 0 1.26 13% 1.3 .17 8% .28 80% .22 0.73 71% 18% 10% -11 -1 0.77 19% 0.8 .15 25% .50 64% .32
Jan
15		 Central Arkansas D+ F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% C F A D- B A+ B B+ B+ B- D F B D- 43% 25% 33% B- D D A+ A C+ F D+ F
1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25 1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31
Jan
17		 North Alabama A D- C+ A+ C+ 61% 14% 25% B+ B- C A+ A+ C- B- A+ A C+ C F A+ C+ 53% 11% 36% F C A+ F C+ D- F F F
1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +2 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28 1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40
Jan
22		 Bellarmine F+ D- A F F 43% 13% 43% B+ F F A+ D+ B C A+ A+ F+ B D+ F F 56% 11% 33% D- F D- B D+ B- B- F C
1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31 1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Kentucky C- D- A+ C- B 30% 43% 27% F C B+ A- A F A+ B- A+ D+ C+ F+ D- D 40% 24% 36% D D F D+ F A F C F
1.18 54% 63% 33% +9 -4 1.14 39% 1.2 .46 20% .55 77% .42 1.11 56% 45% 38% +3 0 1.07 40% 1.2 .47 22% .52 71% .37
Jan
29		 Lipscomb B- B C+ C+ B- 43% 21% 36% B- B- C- B C A+ C- A C+ C- C D- A+ B- 58% 10% 32% F+ C+ A- F F F B+ A- A-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22 1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Florida Gulf Coast F C- A+ F F 34% 30% 36% F+ F D F F F D- F F C C+ A+ D- B 48% 25% 27% F+ B- A F C F+ F A+ F
0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16 1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26
Feb
5		 Queens C+ D A+ A+ B- 38% 27% 36% D- C+ F A+ C D A+ A+ A+ F F A F F 43% 26% 30% B+ F B+ B B+ F F C+ F
1.19 53% 50% 44% +7 -1 1.13 24% 1.5 .36 17% .50 86% .43 1.32 74% 29% 50% +12 0 1.25 25% 1.0 .25 7% .40 73% .29
Feb
7		 West Georgia D+ C- F F F 56% 14% 30% B- F+ B- B B D+ A+ D A- F D+ B+ C- D+ 46% 28% 26% F D F F F F F C F
1.08 57% 29% 27% -5 +2 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 16% .44 68% .30 1.29 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 47% 1.2 .58 12% .54 72% .39
Feb
11		 Stetson F C+ F F F 42% 25% 33% D+ F B- F+ C- C+ A C+ A C- B+ D- F F+ 35% 23% 43% C D- C+ A+ B+ F+ F A+ F
0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26 1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34
Feb
14		 North Florida F F C C- F 35% 16% 49% C- F F A+ A D+ C A B- B+ A- F F C+ 64% 2% 33% F D+ F A+ C+ A- A A+ A+
1.08 40% 43% 33% -6 0 0.91 27% 2.1 .58 14% .28 79% .22 0.96 48% 100% 43% 0 +4 1.10 33% 0.8 .26 22% .13 50% .07



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.4 5.8 2.9 9.1 5th
6th 4.5 8.2 0.2 12.9 6th
7th 0.4 15.7 2.9 0.0 19.1 7th
8th 5.3 13.5 0.4 19.1 8th
9th 0.2 13.7 3.2 17.1 9th
10th 3.3 12.0 0.2 15.4 10th
11th 6.1 0.9 7.0 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 12th
Total 9.9 32.2 37.5 17.3 3.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-10 17.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 16.9
7-11 37.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 37.2
6-12 32.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 32.0
5-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 6.3%