Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Pace57.5#362
Improvement-0.7#271

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#215
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#344
Layup/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#92
Freethrows-1.7#306
Improvement+0.0#187

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#180
First Shot-1.0#211
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#101
Layups/Dunks+1.1#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#318
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-0.8#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.4% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 82.3% 88.1% 62.3%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 88.1% 62.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round3.1% 3.2% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 31 - 52 - 9
Quad 412 - 314 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 24   @ Duke L 44-71 6%     0 - 1 -11.0 -13.5 -2.2
  Nov 23, 2022 255   @ Campbell W 64-43 53%     1 - 1 +18.9 -0.6 +22.7
  Nov 30, 2022 71   @ UAB L 61-80 13%     1 - 2 -8.5 -6.6 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 73-62 15%     2 - 2 +20.8 +12.8 +8.6
  Dec 10, 2022 152   @ UNC Wilmington L 53-81 32%     2 - 3 -24.6 -9.7 -18.4
  Dec 17, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 72-63 77%     3 - 3 +0.0 +4.7 -2.9
  Dec 20, 2022 265   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-55 55%     4 - 3 +8.2 -3.6 +12.4
  Dec 27, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 43-59 27%     4 - 4 -11.0 -26.9 +14.4
  Dec 31, 2022 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-72 34%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -4.2 +4.0 -9.4
  Jan 02, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 62-46 73%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +8.2 +2.1 +10.5
  Jan 05, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 61-73 40%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -10.7 -7.1 -5.3
  Jan 07, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 51-44 60%     6 - 6 2 - 2 +3.0 -16.6 +20.6
  Jan 12, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 68-81 31%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -9.4 -1.2 -8.6
  Jan 14, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. W 68-62 54%     7 - 7 3 - 3 +3.7 +9.4 -4.3
  Jan 19, 2023 70   Liberty L 52-66 26%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -8.6 -7.7 -3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 221   Queens W 77-70 66%     8 - 8 4 - 4 +1.5 +7.3 -4.9
  Jan 26, 2023 291   @ North Alabama L 62-80 61%     8 - 9 4 - 5 -22.2 -6.1 -18.8
  Jan 28, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 74-64 74%     9 - 9 5 - 5 +1.8 +2.1 +0.4
  Feb 02, 2023 282   North Florida W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 282   @ North Florida W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 09, 2023 199   Stetson W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-63 56%    
  Feb 16, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 62-58 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 62-56 73%    
  Feb 24, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 69-66 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.2 7.7 1.6 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 5.8 10.4 2.0 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 12.7 3.8 0.1 19.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 8.2 6.0 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.8 7.7 0.7 11.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.1 2.2 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.9 0.2 4.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.7 11.8 21.0 25.9 21.8 11.0 2.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.6% 6.4% 6.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-6 11.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.4
11-7 21.8% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 21.0
10-8 25.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 25.1
9-9 21.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 20.5
8-10 11.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.5
7-11 4.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.7
6-12 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.8 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 6.4% 13.5 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.3
Lose Out 0.1% 1.5% 16.0 1.5