North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.9 339
Expected Predictive Rating -10.8 330
Pace 64.8 280
Improvement -3.4 317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 309 D- C D+ C- B-
Defense D 344 D F+ D C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 34 D- 51% 335 +0.4 162
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 109 D 33% 333 -1.3 258
Three Pointers 35% 300 D 31% 312 -4.7 324
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.5 110 F+ -6.0 350
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 335
Second Chance C 29.9% 200 C 1.04 160 C 0.31 180
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 261
Freethrows C+ 0.32 149 D- 67% 331 C- 0.21 205
Total Offense D -5.3 309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 96 C- 60% 246 +3.1 283
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 342 F+ 45% 348 -1.2 97
Three Pointers 43% 112 C- 35% 225 +1.7 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 341 D+ +2.5 275
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 294
Second Chance D- 35.3% 337 D- 1.15 334 F+ 0.41 352
Turnovers D 14.3% 324
Freethrows B- 0.28 114 D 75% 315 C+ 0.21 146
Total Defense D -6.6 344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 303 16.9 124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 326 0.20 283
Improvement -1.3 #258 -2.1 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 90% 74% 95%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 62 - 8
Quad 45 - 127 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 75 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 3% -5  10% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -8 D- B F D+ -4 C C+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 279 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 42% +5  85% 1 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 D- A+ C D- -8 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 140 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 17% +8  88% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C- -0 D+ A+ D+ D+ -5 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 37 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  5% 1 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 D+ A A+ D- -9 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 293 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 24% -6  28% 1 - 4 F -18 F -11 D D- F F+ -9 D F A-
 Mon, Dec 1 195 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 12% -2  17% 2 - 4 B- +8 B- +4 D- B B+ B +4 A F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 112 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 6% -4  37% 3 - 4 B +8 D+ -4 F A+ F A +12 A+ C- D+
 Mon, Dec 15 313 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 28% -0  36% 3 - 5 D- -14 F -13 D+ F D C -1 A F F
 Fri, Dec 19 154 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 9% -22  0% 3 - 6 F -31 F -14 F F+ A F -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 328 Stetson L 67 - 70 56% -0  38% 3 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -12 F C D- D+ -5 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 35% -8  0% 3 - 8 0 - 2 F -25 F -24 F F B- C -2 D B- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 275 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 21% -3  15% 3 - 9 0 - 3 D- -12 B- +5 B- C B- F -17 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 292 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 24% +1  39% 4 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +5 A- +11 A+ D C D+ -5 D+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 343 North Florida L 91 - 105 63% -10  12% 4 - 10 1 - 4 F -29 C+ +2 C+ A C- F -32 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 312 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 50% -13  10% 4 - 11 1 - 5 F -34 F+ -9 F C C+ F -25 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 209 @Queens L 62 - 87 13% -10  4% 4 - 12 1 - 6 F -25 F -16 F D F F+ -10 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 251 @Florida Gulf Coast L 64 - 72 17% -8  5% 4 - 13 1 - 7 D -10 F+ -9 F A+ C C -1 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 328 @Stetson W 68 - 66 34% +3  81% 5 - 13 2 - 7 D+ -6 D -4 D+ D D C -1 B+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 186 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 11% -7  15% 5 - 14 2 - 8 F -20 F -11 F D C F+ -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 150 @Austin Peay L 62 - 91 8% -17  4% 5 - 15 2 - 9 F -26 D+ -3 D- C- C- F -27 F F F
 Mon, Feb 9 186 Central Arkansas L 65 - 72 24% +5  82% 5 - 16 2 - 10 D- -12 F -10 C- C+ F C- -2 B- F B+
 Wed, Feb 11 319 West Georgia L 73 - 82 54% -6  2% 5 - 17 2 - 11 F -22 D+ -3 C+ F+ B F -19 F F+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 275 Eastern Kentucky W 84 - 78 OT 41% -1  39% 6 - 17 3 - 11 C- -4 D -4 C- C F C+ +0 B A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 209 Queens L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 @Lipscomb L 68 - 81 11%
 Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine L 75 - 77 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 319 @West Georgia L 72 - 77 32%
Totals 7 - 20 4 - 14 -12 F -5 D F+ B- D -7 D D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D D F+ 45% 43% 35% B- D- C C C D+ C+ D- C- D C- F+ C- D+ 42% 15% 43% D- D D- D- F+ D B- D C+
1.01 51% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.0 .31 18% .32 67% .21 1.18 60% 45% 35% +2 +1 1.09 35% 1.2 .41 14% .28 75% .24
Nov
5		 Mississippi St. F+ F D+ B D 26% 43% 31% F D- C- A+ B F D- F F D+ D- A C- C 40% 24% 36% C- C F A+ C+ F F C+ D-
0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12 1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25
Nov
11		 Northwestern St. C F+ F B F 51% 15% 34% B D- B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- A+ D- F D C F 40% 31% 29% C F B A+ A+ D F F F
1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41 1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38
Nov
15		 East Tennessee St. C- D F B+ D 41% 13% 46% C+ D+ B- A+ A+ D+ A A- A+ D+ F F C- F 35% 18% 47% B- F B+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31 1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13
Nov
17		 Clemson B- D- F D- D- 35% 13% 52% A- D+ A B- A A+ C F D+ D- C F+ B B+ 39% 4% 57% D- B F C- F A D F+ F+
0.97 47% 17% 28% -11 +1 0.81 33% 1.0 .33 13% .27 67% .18 1.29 61% 50% 31% -1 +2 1.04 54% 1.1 .60 19% .39 80% .31
Nov
22		 Chattanooga F C+ F D+ D 36% 19% 45% C- D D+ F+ D- F C F F F+ D+ F C+ D 27% 15% 58% C- D F C F A- D+ B C
0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19 1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21
Dec
1		 Jacksonville St. B- F C+ D F 52% 10% 38% A- D- B- B B B+ C- C C- B A+ A+ B- A+ 46% 8% 46% D+ A C- F F F+ C A+ A+
1.11 44% 40% 30% -9 +2 0.88 32% 1.2 .37 14% .32 78% .25 1.00 41% 0% 32% -12 +2 0.81 31% 1.5 .45 14% .35 45% .16
Dec
3		 San Francisco D+ F B- F F 47% 29% 24% C- F A+ C- A+ F B A+ A A A- D- A+ A+ 29% 14% 57% C+ A+ A- F C- D+ B+ A A-
1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26 0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18
Dec
15		 Alabama A&M F C F A C- 32% 28% 40% F D+ F F F D D+ F F+ C A+ F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% C- A F F F F F B+ F
0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19 1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36
Dec
19		 Loyola Marymount F F C F F 43% 31% 25% C- F C- F F+ A A+ F B+ F B F F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F F F F F C- B- C
0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26 1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18
Jan
1		 Stetson F D D- F F 45% 6% 49% A F B- D C D- B- D C D+ F F A- F 44% 16% 40% F F C A+ B+ B- F+ D- F
1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20 1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27
Jan
3		 Florida Gulf Coast F F F F F 48% 12% 40% B+ F F F F B- A+ F B C C+ D- F D 40% 21% 38% F+ D C+ C+ B- B- A+ D- A
0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31 1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Kentucky B- B A A- B+ 26% 32% 43% F B- F A+ C B- A+ F C F B+ F D+ D+ 28% 16% 56% D- D+ F F F F F F F
1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25 1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32
Jan
10		 Bellarmine A- A- F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% C A+ B+ F D C A+ B+ A+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ 35% 10% 55% C+ D+ C+ F F D- B A+ A
1.36 73% 25% 61% +21 0 1.44 42% 0.8 .33 15% .43 77% .33 1.21 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.18 19% 1.8 .33 13% .25 62% .15
Jan
15		 North Florida C+ C D+ B C 60% 10% 31% A C+ C A+ A C- B D- C+ F F F F F 30% 13% 57% C+ F F F F F F+ F F
1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21 1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28
Jan
17		 Jacksonville F+ D A+ F F 53% 11% 36% A- F F A+ C C+ A+ A A+ F B- D F F 61% 14% 25% F F F+ F F D- D F F
1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40 1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +3 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28
Jan
21		 Queens F D- F F F 54% 13% 33% B+ F C F D F A C- A- F+ F+ F A+ D 58% 11% 31% F D- F C F C F F F
0.92 52% 17% 27% -10 +2 0.87 34% 0.8 .29 24% .43 73% .31 1.29 69% 80% 21% +5 +3 1.18 46% 1.1 .50 16% .44 96% .42
Jan
29		 Florida Gulf Coast F+ A- F F F 48% 24% 28% C F D+ A+ A+ C A D- B C B F C- C 27% 20% 53% C- C- C- C+ C B- B+ F C
0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31 1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19
Jan
31		 Stetson D A- F D- D+ 40% 16% 44% C+ D+ D+ D+ D D A- F+ B C F+ A+ A+ A- 46% 22% 33% D B+ F F F C- C- F F
1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23 1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27
Feb
4		 Central Arkansas F F D D+ F 43% 12% 45% B- F D- C D C C+ F F+ F+ D- A+ F F 39% 7% 54% F+ F D+ F+ D- C- A+ F A-
0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15 1.22 67% 0% 41% +7 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12
Feb
7		 Austin Peay D+ F+ A+ F F 59% 18% 24% A- D- A+ F C- C- F A+ F+ F D- F F F 54% 6% 40% F F D+ F F F A+ A A+
1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14 1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Central Arkansas F D A+ D D 58% 8% 34% A C- C+ C C+ F A+ B- A+ C- B- F A+ B+ 39% 9% 52% F+ B- C- F F B+ F D- F
0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35 1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31
Feb
11		 West Georgia D+ C D- A+ C+ 53% 23% 25% D+ C+ F D F+ B D D D- F C+ D- F F 33% 31% 37% C- F C- F F+ F B- F C-
1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19 1.27 53% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21
Feb
15		 Eastern Kentucky D D+ B+ C+ D 45% 14% 40% B+ C- A- F C F A+ F+ A+ C+ B- F A+ A 43% 5% 52% F B B A+ A+ F F A+ D-
1.13 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.10 42% 0.8 .33 20% .77 67% .52 1.05 54% 100% 22% -8 +2 0.90 29% 0.7 .20 11% .39 58% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.4 7th
8th 0.8 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 2.4 2.4 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 7.9 16.0 0.7 24.6 11th
12th 25.9 33.4 7.0 0.0 66.3 12th
Total 25.9 41.3 25.4 6.8 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.6% 0.6
6-12 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.3
4-14 41.3% 41.3
3-15 25.9% 25.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 25.9%