North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #288
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #283
Pace 66.6 #257
Improvement -3.3 #334

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #315 F D- C+ C C+
Defense #228 C B D D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 0.91 #362 -2.9 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.59 #344 -1.7 #253
Three Pointers 37% #270 0.89 #309 -4.5 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #361 -9.1 #361
Freethrows 15.6 #276 65% #340 10.2 #308
Second Chance 30.4% #192 1.12 #95 0.34 #133
Turnovers 16.5% #166
Total Offense -5.4 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.19 #216 -1.0 #213
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #278 0.79 #246 +0.9 #129
Three Pointers 44% #105 0.97 #138 -0.5 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #197 -0.6 #194
Freethrows 14.9 #65 70% #88 10.4 #53
Second Chance 34.9% #316 1.07 #224 0.37 #302
Turnovers 14.4% #307
Total Defense -1.8 #228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #143 1.0% #262
Shot Type Make % Effect -18.5% #361 0.1% #179
Possession Length 18.2 #269 16.5 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #253 0.22 #317
Improvement -4.7 #361 +1.4 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.8% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 11.6% 21.4% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 47.5% 22.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.2% 4.9% 16.0%
First Four1.7% 2.2% 1.4%
First Round2.3% 3.8% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 48 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 64 @Mississippi St. L 62-86 5%     -4.7   0 - 1 -12.4 -6.9 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 295 Northwestern St. W 87-83 OT 62%     4.5   1 - 1 -6.4 +2.2 -8.8
  Sat, Nov 15 131 East Tennessee St. L 74-78 28%     7.5   1 - 2 -5.2 +1.7 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 17 40 @Clemson L 61-81 3%     -14.2   1 - 3 -4.3 +4.1 -10.7
  Sat, Nov 22 262 @Chattanooga L 57-71 34%     -5.6   1 - 4 -16.9 -9.3 -9.9
  Mon, Dec 1 220 @Jacksonville St. W 73-66 26%     -2.4   2 - 4 +6.7 +5.8 +1.3
  Wed, Dec 3 95 @San Francisco W 65-63 8%     -3.7   3 - 4 +10.6 +2.0 +8.8
  Mon, Dec 15 307 @Alabama A&M L 60-68 42%     0.0   3 - 5 -13.2 -11.2 -2.6
  Fri, Dec 19 121 @Loyola Marymount L 57-91 12%     -22.0   3 - 6 -28.3 -10.3 -18.5
  Thu, Jan 1 349 Stetson L 67-70 78%     -0.1   3 - 7 0 - 1 -18.4 -9.5 -9.1
  Sat, Jan 3 172 Florida Gulf Coast L 55-72 38%     -8.1   3 - 8 0 - 2 -21.0 -20.9 -0.5
  Thu, Jan 8 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-75 34%    
  Sat, Jan 10 291 @Bellarmine L 72-75 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 347 North Florida W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 Jacksonville W 69-64 68%    
  Wed, Jan 21 226 @Queens L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 254 Central Arkansas W 72-71 54%    
  Thu, Jan 29 172 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 349 @Stetson W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 254 @Central Arkansas L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 205 @Austin Peay L 66-73 24%    
  Wed, Feb 11 308 West Georgia W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 265 Eastern Kentucky W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 226 Queens L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 160 @Lipscomb L 66-76 19%    
  Wed, Feb 25 291 Bellarmine W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 308 @West Georgia L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 5.5 1.8 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 6.6 3.0 0.2 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 6.7 3.9 0.4 13.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.1 5.1 0.7 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.8 4.8 1.1 0.1 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 6.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.8 7.1 10.9 14.5 16.1 14.8 12.5 8.8 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 72.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 64.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.1% 15.7% 15.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.7% 11.1% 11.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4
11-7 5.2% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.7
10-8 8.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 8.2
9-9 12.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.6 11.9
8-10 14.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 14.4
7-11 16.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.8
6-12 14.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.4
5-13 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-15 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 96.9 0.0%