IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.1	#195
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.6	#216
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.6	#181

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#220

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.8%	28.5%	16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	13.2	14.3

.500 or above	65.1%	89.8%	64.2%
.500 or above in Conference	85.5%	94.4%	85.2%
Conference Champion	22.0%	38.0%	21.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.8%	0.3%	0.8%

First Four	1.9%	0.2%	1.9%
First Round	16.7%	28.8%	16.2%
Second Round	0.8%	1.6%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	3 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 5	16 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2025	33	@ Mississippi St.	L	63-82	4%
Nov 11, 2025	255	Northwestern St.	W	69-63	71%
Nov 15, 2025	152	East Tennessee St.	W	68-67	53%
Nov 17, 2025	42	@ Clemson	L	58-76	6%
Nov 22, 2025	125	@ Chattanooga	L	68-75	25%
Dec 01, 2025	153	@ Jacksonville St.	L	64-69	32%
Dec 03, 2025	75	@ San Francisco	L	65-77	14%
Dec 15, 2025	325	@ Alabama A&M	W	77-72	65%
Dec 19, 2025	136	@ Loyola Marymount	L	66-73	28%
Jan 01, 2026	350	Stetson	W	78-65	87%
Jan 03, 2026	181	Florida Gulf Coast	W	69-67	58%
Jan 08, 2026	174	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	70-74	37%
Jan 10, 2026	320	@ Bellarmine	W	74-70	64%
Jan 15, 2026	330	North Florida	W	84-73	83%
Jan 17, 2026	253	Jacksonville	W	72-66	69%
Jan 21, 2026	245	@ Queens	L	73-74	49%
Jan 24, 2026	358	Central Arkansas	W	77-62	90%
Jan 29, 2026	181	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	66-70	38%
Jan 31, 2026	350	@ Stetson	W	75-68	72%
Feb 04, 2026	358	@ Central Arkansas	W	74-65	78%
Feb 07, 2026	276	@ Austin Peay	W	70-69	54%
Feb 11, 2026	345	West Georgia	W	78-65	85%
Feb 14, 2026	174	Eastern Kentucky	W	73-71	57%
Feb 18, 2026	245	Queens	W	76-71	67%
Feb 21, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	68-71	40%
Feb 25, 2026	320	Bellarmine	W	77-67	79%
Feb 28, 2026	345	@ West Georgia	W	75-68	71%
Projected Record						15 - 12	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.3	4.2	6.6	5.5	3.0	1.0		22.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.3	5.3	5.8	2.7	0.6	0.0			16.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.6	5.6	4.7	1.5	0.1	0.0				14.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.4	5.1	4.0	0.9	0.1						12.7	4th
5th									0.2	1.7	4.2	3.0	0.7	0.0							9.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.4	3.4	2.6	0.5	0.0								7.9	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	2.4	2.1	0.5	0.0									6.0	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.5	1.7	1.5	0.4	0.0										4.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0											2.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0												1.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.9	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.4	12th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.3	2.4	4.0	5.7	7.8	10.0	11.5	12.8	12.2	11.6	9.4	6.1	3.0	1.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
17-1	99.3%	3.0		2.8	0.1
16-2	90.4%	5.5		4.6	0.9	0.0
15-3	70.4%	6.6		3.9	2.4	0.3	0.0
14-4	36.4%	4.2		1.4	2.0	0.7	0.1
13-5	10.5%	1.3		0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	22.0%	22.0		14.1	6.0	1.5	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.0%		63.9%	63.5%	0.4%	12.0					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1			0.4		1.1%
17-1	3.0%		50.6%	50.6%		12.8											0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.5
16-2	6.1%		40.4%	40.4%		13.3												0.0	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0	3.7
15-3	9.4%		35.3%	35.3%		14.1												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	0.8	0.1	6.1
14-4	11.6%		25.1%	25.1%		15.2													0.1	0.4	1.1	1.0	0.4	8.7
13-5	12.2%		17.9%	17.9%		16.1													0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	0.6	10.0
12-6	12.8%		13.0%	13.0%		17.2													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	11.1
11-7	11.5%		9.4%	9.4%		17.5														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	10.4
10-8	10.0%		5.6%	5.6%		17.0															0.0	0.2	0.4	9.4
9-9	7.8%		3.9%	3.9%		17.0																0.0	0.3	7.5
8-10	5.7%		1.9%	1.9%		16.6																	0.1	5.6
7-11	4.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
6-12	2.4%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
5-13	1.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
4-14	0.7%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		16.8%	16.8%	0.0%	14.9					0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	1.5	3.1	4.6	4.4	3.6	83.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.4				32.8		33.6			33.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	49.4%	10.0										49.4