North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#248
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#263
Pace69.7#147
Improvement-1.2#241

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#183
First Shot+1.2#151
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#257
Freethrows+1.6#71
Improvement+0.4#164

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#300
First Shot-3.5#299
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#235
Layups/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#292
Freethrows-1.1#266
Improvement-1.6#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.2% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 100.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.3% 5.5% 4.8%
First Round3.4% 3.7% 2.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 410 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 337   Alabama A&M W 83-67 83%     1 - 0 +1.4 +1.0 -0.5
  Nov 14, 2023 27   @ Mississippi St. L 54-81 4%     1 - 1 -11.5 -14.7 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2023 177   Jacksonville St. W 61-59 47%     2 - 1 -1.6 -14.9 +13.2
  Nov 22, 2023 220   @ Tennessee Martin L 103-105 2OT 35%     2 - 2 -2.4 +5.3 -7.2
  Nov 26, 2023 136   @ Western Carolina L 63-81 20%     2 - 3 -13.3 -6.0 -7.6
  Nov 30, 2023 330   Tennessee Tech W 86-71 80%     3 - 3 +1.8 +11.7 -9.2
  Dec 02, 2023 61   @ Kansas St. L 74-75 OT 8%     3 - 4 +10.8 +4.8 +6.1
  Dec 10, 2023 144   Morehead St. L 77-86 38%     3 - 5 -10.0 +9.8 -20.6
  Dec 13, 2023 319   @ Charleston Southern W 76-64 59%     4 - 5 +5.3 +2.7 +2.8
  Dec 16, 2023 330   @ Tennessee Tech L 67-70 63%     4 - 6 -10.7 -6.4 -4.4
  Dec 21, 2023 99   @ Indiana L 66-83 12%     4 - 7 -8.7 +0.4 -9.8
  Jan 01, 2024 30   @ Texas Tech L 57-85 5%     4 - 8 -13.1 -3.6 -13.0
  Jan 06, 2024 338   Central Arkansas L 81-84 84%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -17.7 -2.6 -14.9
  Jan 11, 2024 310   Bellarmine W 69-53 74%     5 - 9 1 - 1 +5.0 +6.9 +2.0
  Jan 13, 2024 180   Eastern Kentucky L 72-81 48%     5 - 10 1 - 2 -12.8 -8.3 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2024 217   @ Austin Peay L 80-83 OT 35%     5 - 11 1 - 3 -3.3 -3.5 +0.5
  Jan 20, 2024 166   @ Lipscomb L 79-88 26%     5 - 12 1 - 4 -6.6 +5.9 -12.9
  Jan 24, 2024 251   @ Kennesaw St. W 90-84 40%     6 - 12 2 - 4 +4.4 +4.4 -0.7
  Jan 27, 2024 267   Queens W 90-84 64%     7 - 12 3 - 4 -2.0 +2.8 -5.4
  Feb 01, 2024 196   Stetson W 79-72 53%     8 - 12 4 - 4 +2.0 +5.1 -2.7
  Feb 03, 2024 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-69 58%     9 - 12 5 - 4 -5.3 +0.3 -5.5
  Feb 08, 2024 241   @ North Florida W 79-74 38%     10 - 12 6 - 4 +3.9 +4.9 -0.9
  Feb 10, 2024 276   @ Jacksonville L 63-67 46%     10 - 13 6 - 5 -7.1 -0.6 -7.0
  Feb 15, 2024 166   Lipscomb W 75-70 45%     11 - 13 7 - 5 +2.0 -4.4 +6.4
  Feb 17, 2024 217   Austin Peay L 79-87 56%     11 - 14 7 - 6 -13.8 +8.6 -23.1
  Feb 22, 2024 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-75 28%     11 - 15 7 - 7 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7
  Feb 24, 2024 310   @ Bellarmine L 70-82 55%     11 - 16 7 - 8 -17.5 -2.3 -15.8
  Mar 01, 2024 338   @ Central Arkansas W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.3 1.3 4th
5th 16.7 16.7 5th
6th 26.6 48.9 75.5 6th
7th 6.5 6.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 33.1 66.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 66.9% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1 62.8
7-9 33.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6 31.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.8 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 66.9% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
Lose Out 33.1% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 4.9