North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#308
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#289
Pace73.2#86
Improvement+1.8#51

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#317
First Shot-6.2#330
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#130
Layup/Dunks-8.4#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#118
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement+1.6#44

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#265
First Shot-4.1#295
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#89
Layups/Dunks+0.1#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#252
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement+0.2#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 7.4% 7.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 23.3% 10.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 18.1% 27.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 47 - 69 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 49-75 3%     0 - 1 -12.3 -15.6 +2.8
  Nov 19, 2021 253   Manhattan L 51-55 38%     0 - 2 -9.0 -20.7 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2021 106   Iona L 65-81 13%     0 - 3 -11.8 -8.4 -2.3
  Nov 28, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. W 81-69 56%     1 - 3 +2.3 +1.6 +0.1
  Dec 01, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 85-66 97%    
  Dec 08, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 14, 2021 21   @ Auburn L 62-87 1%    
  Dec 22, 2021 65   @ Central Florida L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 28, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-96 0.1%   
  Jan 04, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 11, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky L 77-83 32%    
  Jan 15, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 76-74 55%    
  Jan 18, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 268   Stetson W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 27, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 59-70 16%    
  Jan 29, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 03, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 288   North Florida W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 177   Bellarmine L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 16, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-86 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 222   Lipscomb L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 63-75 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.3 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.4 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.0 3.9 0.4 11.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 6.2 6.2 1.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 6.2 6.3 1.9 0.2 16.5 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.9 5.5 2.0 0.2 16.0 11th
12th 0.6 2.3 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 10.0 12th
Total 0.6 2.5 5.8 10.5 14.0 16.0 15.9 11.7 9.5 5.9 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 75.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 45.5% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 9.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 0.1
13-3 0.4% 0.4
12-4 1.0% 1.0
11-5 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.0
10-6 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.0
9-7 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 5.9
8-8 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
7-9 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.7
6-10 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-11 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-12 14.0% 14.0
3-13 10.5% 10.5
2-14 5.8% 5.8
1-15 2.5% 2.5
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%