North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 #258
Pace 66.6 #255
Improvement -2.3 #306

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #275 F D B- C C+
Defense #248 C B- D- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 0.93 #360 -2.7 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.63 #311 -1.1 #237
Three Pointers 37% #272 0.91 #281 -4.0 #305
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #351 -7.8 #352
Freethrows 15.8 #262 65% #337 10.3 #301
Second Chance 32.1% #132 1.13 #90 0.36 #99
Turnovers 16.8% #185
Total Offense -3.6 #275

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.20 #222 -1.0 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #276 0.79 #231 +1.0 #119
Three Pointers 44% #96 0.95 #122 -0.2 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 -0.2 #183
Freethrows 15.7 #110 70% #98 11.0 #86
Second Chance 36.4% #340 1.08 #229 0.39 #324
Turnovers 14.2% #313
Total Defense -2.3 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #156 1% #260
Shot Type Make % Effect -15.7% #355 -0.6% #171
Possession Length 18.1 #262 16.5 #83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #258 0.24 #341
Improvement -2.2 #320 -0.1 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.9% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 24.6% 35.9% 14.8%
.500 or above in Conference 48.7% 63.0% 36.1%
Conference Champion 2.9% 4.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 3.1% 10.2%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 1.8%
First Round4.3% 5.8% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 49 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 73 @Mississippi St. L 62-86 7%     -4.7   0 - 1 -13.2 -6.9 -5.8
  Tue, Nov 11 299 Northwestern St. W 87-83 OT 68%     4.5   1 - 1 -6.9 +1.8 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 128 East Tennessee St. L 74-78 32%     7.5   1 - 2 -5.1 +1.7 -6.9
  Mon, Nov 17 40 @Clemson L 61-81 3%     -14.2   1 - 3 -4.5 +3.9 -10.6
  Sat, Nov 22 252 @Chattanooga L 57-71 35%     -5.6   1 - 4 -16.0 -9.1 -9.2
  Mon, Dec 1 208 @Jacksonville St. W 73-66 29%     -2.4   2 - 4 +6.9 +5.9 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 3 96 @San Francisco W 65-63 9%     -3.7   3 - 4 +10.6 +1.9 +8.8
  Mon, Dec 15 289 @Alabama A&M L 60-68 43%     0.0   3 - 5 -12.0 -8.9 -3.7
  Fri, Dec 19 122 @Loyola Marymount L 57-91 14%     -22.0   3 - 6 -28.2 -10.3 -18.5
  Thu, Jan 1 341 Stetson L 67-70 80%     -0.1   3 - 7 0 - 1 -17.9 -8.5 -9.6
  Sat, Jan 3 191 Florida Gulf Coast L 75-76 47%    
  Thu, Jan 8 253 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 272 @Bellarmine L 73-76 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 351 North Florida W 86-76 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 320 Jacksonville W 71-64 73%    
  Wed, Jan 21 234 @Queens L 76-81 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 269 Central Arkansas W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 191 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 341 @Stetson W 73-70 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 269 @Central Arkansas L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 193 @Austin Peay L 67-74 27%    
  Wed, Feb 11 313 West Georgia W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 253 Eastern Kentucky W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 18 234 Queens W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 155 @Lipscomb L 68-77 20%    
  Wed, Feb 25 272 Bellarmine W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 313 @West Georgia W 73-72 50%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.1 3rd
4th 0.6 3.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.8 5.1 1.2 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.2 2.4 0.1 11.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 6.0 3.3 0.2 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.1 0.5 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.9 1.2 0.1 9.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.7 7.0 10.4 13.2 14.4 14.5 12.7 9.5 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 87.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 58.3% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.3% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 37.5% 37.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 23.5% 23.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.6% 21.0% 21.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
13-5 3.5% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.0
12-6 6.3% 13.9% 13.9% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 5.4
11-7 9.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 8.6
10-8 12.7% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.2 0.7 11.8
9-9 14.5% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 13.7
8-10 14.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 14.1
7-11 13.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 12.9
6-12 10.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.3
5-13 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
4-14 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 94.8 0.0%