North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#288
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#261
Pace70.8#138
Improvement-1.6#292

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#225
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#254
Layup/Dunks-2.8#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#51
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement+0.9#85

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#319
First Shot-1.6#233
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#335
Layups/Dunks-6.6#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#54
Freethrows+2.0#65
Improvement-2.5#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 1.9% 4.4% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 40.6% 30.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.6% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 9.0% 12.2%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round1.7% 2.6% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 24.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 6
Quad 20 - 20 - 8
Quad 31 - 61 - 14
Quad 46 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 17   @ Texas Tech L 74-89 2%     0 - 1 +2.7 +7.9 -4.8
  Nov 10, 2021 80   @ Texas A&M L 46-64 7%     0 - 2 -8.2 -20.3 +12.2
  Nov 12, 2021 110   @ Grand Canyon L 51-65 11%     0 - 3 -7.3 -11.5 +2.3
  Nov 15, 2021 96   @ Arizona St. L 63-72 9%     0 - 4 -0.7 -4.3 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 63-98 1%     0 - 5 -14.5 -4.0 -8.9
  Nov 26, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 52-86 2%     0 - 6 -15.5 -18.4 +6.6
  Nov 28, 2021 226   @ Florida International L 69-84 25%     0 - 7 -14.8 +0.9 -16.4
  Dec 05, 2021 221   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-78 25%    
  Dec 08, 2021 14   @ Florida L 60-85 1%    
  Dec 11, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 21, 2021 31   @ Florida St. L 63-85 2%    
  Jan 04, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 74-82 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 268   Stetson W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 11, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 62-72 19%    
  Jan 15, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 18, 2022 278   Kennesaw St. W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-87 17%    
  Jan 27, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 29, 2022 222   Lipscomb L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 03, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 05, 2022 308   @ North Alabama L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 177   Bellarmine L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 15, 2022 171   Liberty L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 268   @ Stetson L 70-74 37%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 6 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.3 5.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.1 1.6 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.6 3.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 1.4 5.3 5.0 0.6 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.8 5.8 1.2 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.9 1.6 0.1 12.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 4.2 4.6 1.8 0.1 12.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.5 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.0 7.2 10.4 15.2 14.7 13.9 12.0 8.6 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 99.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 72.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 45.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-5 7.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.2% 35.6% 35.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 0.5% 12.7% 12.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-4 1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-5 3.7% 10.5% 10.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 3.3
10-6 6.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.6 5.9
9-7 8.6% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.4 8.2
8-8 12.0% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 11.6
7-9 13.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.7
6-10 14.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.5
5-11 15.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.1
4-12 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-13 7.2% 7.2
2-14 4.0% 4.0
1-15 1.3% 1.3
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%