North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#245
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#280
Pace70.1#142
Improvement-0.2#225

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#186
First Shot+0.4#153
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#242
Layup/Dunks+0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#118
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement-0.1#179

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#284
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#337
Layups/Dunks-3.3#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#26
Freethrows+0.6#151
Improvement-0.2#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 21.3% 36.4% 14.8%
.500 or above in Conference 40.3% 50.6% 35.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 5.1% 10.3%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 13
Quad 49 - 411 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 11   @ Gonzaga L 63-104 2%     0 - 1 -20.6 -11.2 -4.0
  Nov 11, 2022 91   @ Washington L 67-75 12%     0 - 2 +0.7 -1.7 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2022 347   South Carolina St. W 72-66 87%     1 - 2 -10.2 -12.8 +2.4
  Nov 21, 2022 130   @ Duquesne L 82-83 18%     1 - 3 +4.7 +12.3 -7.7
  Nov 23, 2022 17   @ Kentucky L 56-96 3%     1 - 4 -21.4 -8.1 -12.2
  Dec 03, 2022 201   @ High Point L 73-78 30%    
  Dec 06, 2022 1   @ Houston L 50-79 0.4%   
  Dec 10, 2022 352   Bethune-Cookman W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 17, 2022 106   @ Pittsburgh L 66-78 15%    
  Dec 22, 2022 352   @ Bethune-Cookman W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 31, 2022 277   Austin Peay W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 02, 2023 203   @ Stetson L 72-77 30%    
  Jan 05, 2023 215   Kennesaw St. W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 101   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-80 13%    
  Jan 12, 2023 221   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 215   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 19, 2023 243   Queens W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 126   Liberty L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 26, 2023 319   @ Central Arkansas W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 325   @ North Alabama W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 02, 2023 136   @ Jacksonville L 59-69 20%    
  Feb 04, 2023 136   Jacksonville L 62-66 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 101   Florida Gulf Coast L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 11, 2023 203   Stetson W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 16, 2023 163   @ Lipscomb L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 18, 2023 277   @ Austin Peay L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 247   Eastern Kentucky W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 24, 2023 233   Bellarmine W 70-67 59%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 5.0 1.3 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.2 2.5 0.2 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 1.0 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.7 1.7 0.1 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 2.2 0.2 8.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.7 6.1 9.2 11.7 13.2 13.2 12.3 10.0 7.7 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-2 87.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
15-3 75.1% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 35.7% 35.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 26.7% 26.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 18.9% 18.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.6% 11.5% 11.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 2.9% 7.1% 7.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7
12-6 4.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.5
11-7 7.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.1 0.2 7.4
10-8 10.0% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.7
9-9 12.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.1
8-10 13.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.1
7-11 13.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.1
6-12 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.6
5-13 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
4-14 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 97.9 0.0%