IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.2	#330
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.6	#10
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.4	#240

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.8	#359

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.7%	9.9%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.8	14.0	15.3

.500 or above	9.5%	60.3%	9.5%
.500 or above in Conference	30.3%	90.1%	30.2%
Conference Champion	1.3%	9.9%	1.3%
Last Place in Conference	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%

First Four	0.7%	0.0%	0.7%
First Round	1.5%	9.9%	1.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 9	9 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2025	5	@ Florida	L	66-101	0.1%
Nov 12, 2025	16	@ Tennessee	L	57-88	0.3%
Nov 19, 2025	205	@ Wofford	L	70-81	17%
Nov 22, 2025	276	Southern Miss	L	80-84	38%
Dec 02, 2025	240	SIU Edwardsville	L	74-77	40%
Dec 07, 2025	18	@ Gonzaga	L	70-100	1%
Dec 13, 2025	65	@ Dayton	L	66-88	3%
Dec 18, 2025	313	@ Charleston Southern	L	76-81	34%
Dec 21, 2025	55	@ Miami (FL)	L	70-93	3%
Dec 28, 2025	267	Columbia	L	85-86	45%
Jan 01, 2026	272	@ Austin Peay	L	74-81	28%
Jan 03, 2026	188	@ Lipscomb	L	72-83	18%
Jan 08, 2026	355	West Georgia	W	83-77	71%
Jan 10, 2026	242	Queens	L	81-84	41%
Jan 15, 2026	191	@ North Alabama	L	73-84	17%
Jan 17, 2026	354	@ Central Arkansas	W	78-77	52%
Jan 22, 2026	181	Eastern Kentucky	L	78-84	31%
Jan 24, 2026	319	Bellarmine	W	81-79	57%
Jan 29, 2026	348	Stetson	W	83-78	66%
Jan 31, 2026	188	Lipscomb	L	75-80	33%
Feb 05, 2026	355	@ West Georgia	W	80-79	52%
Feb 07, 2026	242	@ Queens	L	78-87	24%
Feb 11, 2026	175	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	70-82	16%
Feb 14, 2026	245	@ Jacksonville	L	72-81	24%
Feb 19, 2026	272	Austin Peay	L	77-78	47%
Feb 21, 2026	348	@ Stetson	L	80-81	46%
Feb 26, 2026	175	Florida Gulf Coast	L	73-79	31%
Feb 28, 2026	245	Jacksonville	L	75-78	41%
Projected Record						9 - 19	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3	1st
2nd												0.2	0.8	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0				3.0	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.0	1.6	0.7	0.2						3.7	3rd
4th										0.3	1.6	2.4	1.1	0.2	0.0						5.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	1.9	3.2	1.4	0.1	0.0							7.0	5th
6th								0.3	2.2	4.1	2.2	0.2	0.0								9.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.6	4.6	2.7	0.4	0.0									10.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.9	5.3	3.3	0.4	0.0										12.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.5	3.1	5.9	3.4	0.6	0.0											13.5	9th
10th			0.1	0.9	3.9	5.4	2.9	0.5	0.0												13.8	10th
11th		0.1	1.4	3.7	4.1	2.0	0.4	0.0													11.7	11th
12th	0.6	1.7	2.8	2.2	1.0	0.1	0.0														8.4	12th

Total	0.6	1.8	4.3	6.9	9.4	11.1	12.4	12.1	11.0	9.4	7.6	5.2	3.7	2.2	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	88.2%	0.2		0.1	0.0
15-3	67.3%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	35.4%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1
13-5	8.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0								0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.3%	1.3		0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		13.0														0.0				0.0
17-1	0.1%		31.0%	31.0%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
16-2	0.2%		27.9%	27.9%		14.3														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.6%		22.7%	22.7%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4
14-4	1.4%		17.8%	17.8%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.2%		8.5%	8.5%		17.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	2.0
12-6	3.7%		6.9%	6.9%		18.8															0.0	0.1	0.2	3.4
11-7	5.2%		2.9%	2.9%		17.2																0.0	0.1	5.0
10-8	7.6%		3.7%	3.7%		18.7																0.0	0.3	7.3
9-9	9.4%		1.7%	1.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.2
8-10	11.0%		0.9%	0.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.9
7-11	12.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.1
6-12	12.4%																							12.4
5-13	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
4-14	9.4%																							9.4
3-15	6.9%																							6.9
2-16	4.3%																							4.3
1-17	1.8%																							1.8
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		1.7%	1.7%	0.0%	16.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.0	98.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%