North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 #348
Expected Predictive Rating -13.3 #348
Pace 77.1 #22
Improvement +2.2 #88

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 C+ C- D+ D C+
Defense #365 D- F F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.16 #165 -3.0 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.90 #36 -2.0 #279
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.04 #154 +7.2 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #121 +2.2 #120
Freethrows 0.22 #359 80% #6 0.17 #325
Second Chance 24.1% #336 1.20 #29 0.29 #244
Turnovers 17.7% #264
Total Offense -0.4 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.28 #323 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.98 #364 -0.2 #194
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.02 #199 -1.1 #228
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #331 -5.3 #330
Freethrows 0.27 #89 71% #97 0.19 #81
Second Chance 38.3% #359 1.24 #352 0.47 #364
Turnovers 12.7% #349
Total Defense -11.8 #365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 1.5% #309
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.0% #129 8.7% #327
Possession Length 17.0 #138 15.7 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #267 0.25 #359
Improvement +2.8 #50 -0.6 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 8.6% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.1% 15.3% 39.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 46 - 126 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 5 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  0 - 1 -16 -5 F A- F+ -6 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  0 - 2 -13 -2 C- B F -8 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 211 @Wofford L 78 - 86 13% -1  0 - 3 -8 -0 B- F C -8 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 259 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 26% +0  0 - 4 -14 +7 A+ F F -22 F F F+
 Sun, Nov 23 345 Prairie View L 82 - 85 49% +5  0 - 5 -15 +1 A+ C+ F -16 D C- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 261 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 36% -1  0 - 6 -18 -6 C- D+ D- -12 D F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 11 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  0 - 7 -28 -9 C- D+ D -14 D F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 85 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  0 - 8 -13 -4 F B- C+ -10 F C F+
 Thu, Dec 18 234 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 15% -12  0 - 9 -24 +6 B- D+ C -27 F C+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  0 - 10 -22 -3 D- B F -17 D- F+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 170 Columbia L 82 - 90 21% -1  0 - 11 -12 +5 B+ F+ B- -16 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 172 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 10% -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 +5 C+ F+ C+ -20 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 169 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 9% -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +3 C+ D- C- -8 B+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 328 West Georgia L 73 - 85 54% -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -25 -8 F A F -17 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 199 Queens L 82 - 89 26% -2  0 - 15 0 - 4 -13 -1 C D+ B- -11 C+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 330 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 32% +10  1 - 15 1 - 4 +6 +27 A+ B B+ -21 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 219 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 14% -23  1 - 16 1 - 5 -29 -5 C F D -24 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 263 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 36% +2  2 - 16 2 - 5 -7 +5 B B- D -12 D F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 303 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 46% +6  3 - 16 3 - 5 -8 +19 A+ A- A- -28 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 329 Stetson W 85 - 84 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 169 Lipscomb L 82 - 91 21%
 Thu, Feb 5 328 @West Georgia L 83 - 88 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 199 @Queens L 84 - 97 12%
 Wed, Feb 11 232 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 92 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 285 @Jacksonville L 74 - 82 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 172 Austin Peay L 80 - 88 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 @Stetson L 82 - 87 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 232 Florida Gulf Coast L 84 - 89 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 Jacksonville L 77 - 79 43%
Totals 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12 +0 C+ C- D+ -12 D- F F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.4 5.8 3.0 0.2 9.3 7th
8th 0.1 4.0 6.9 0.8 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 9.2 2.9 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 8.4 8.4 0.6 18.2 10th
11th 1.5 8.4 11.7 1.9 0.0 23.4 11th
12th 3.3 6.0 2.4 0.1 11.7 12th
Total 4.8 15.2 24.1 23.8 17.6 9.3 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 9.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 17.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.5
6-12 23.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.7
5-13 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.1
4-14 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.4%