North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.2 345
Expected Predictive Rating -13.4 346
Pace 76.0 27
Improvement +2.4 87

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #167 C+ D+ D+ D B-
Defense F #365 D- F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 57% 190 -3.6 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 325 41% 86 -2.5 299
Three Pointers 54% 4 35% 128 +7.6 15
1st FG Attempt 1.05 126 +1.5 127
Second Chance 25.0% 327 1.12 61 0.28 251
Turnovers 18.5% 284
Freethrows 0.24 351 79% 8 0.19 316
Total Offense -0.5 167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 64% 318 -4.0 319
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 311 48% 362 +0.1 187
Three Pointers 42% 131 34% 210 -1.1 239
1st FG Attempt 1.12 331 -5.1 331
Second Chance 37.4% 357 1.20 352 0.45 362
Turnovers 12.1% 362
Freethrows 0.28 100 70% 71 0.20 86
Total Defense -11.7 365

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 109 +0.8 311
Shot Type Accuracy +0.9 139 +4.1 327
Possession Length 17.0 138 15.9 14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 275 0.25 353
Improvement +1.8 #97 +0.6 #149

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 13% 3% 17%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 46 - 136 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  3% 0 - 1 D- -14 D -6 F+ A F+ C- -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  6% 0 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 C- B F D -6 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 19 212 @Wofford L 78 - 86 13% -1  42% 0 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -3 B F C+ D+ -5 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 241 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 23% +0  52% 0 - 4 D- -14 B- +5 A+ F F F -19 F F F+
 Sun, Nov 23 336 Prairie View L 82 - 85 47% +5  83% 0 - 5 F+ -14 C- -2 A+ C- F F -12 D- C- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 245 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 33% -1  28% 0 - 6 F+ -17 D- -7 C- C- D- F+ -10 D F F
 Sun, Dec 7 13 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  1% 0 - 7 F -29 F -12 D+ C- D F -12 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 97 @Dayton L 61 - 84 4% -21  8% 0 - 8 F+ -15 D- -7 F B- C+ D- -8 F C+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 256 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 18% -12  0% 0 - 9 F -25 C+ +3 B- D C+ F -25 F C+ F+
 Sun, Dec 21 41 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  3% 0 - 10 F -22 D -5 D B F F -14 D- F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 200 Columbia L 82 - 90 26% -1  31% 0 - 11 D- -14 C +1 B F+ B F -14 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 152 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 8% -8  9% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F+ -16 C+ +2 C+ F+ C- F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 11% -2  40% 0 - 13 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D- C- D+ -5 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 317 West Georgia L 73 - 85 52% -6  0% 0 - 14 0 - 3 F -25 F -11 F A+ D- F -14 F F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 218 Queens L 82 - 89 28% -2  27% 0 - 15 0 - 4 D- -13 D -4 C D B D- -8 C F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 344 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 38% +10  80% 1 - 15 1 - 4 B- +5 A+ +24 A+ B A F -19 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 190 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 11% -23  1% 1 - 16 1 - 5 F -28 D- -6 C- F C- F -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 267 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 38% +2  67% 2 - 16 2 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +3 B B D+ F+ -10 D- F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 283 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 41% +6  86% 3 - 16 3 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +17 A+ A- A- F -24 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 333 Stetson L 77 - 84 57% -6  2% 3 - 17 3 - 6 F -21 D -5 D- C C- F -16 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 187 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 24% +2  58% 3 - 18 3 - 7 D -11 A +13 A A- C F -23 F C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 317 @West Georgia W 81 - 73 30% -1  30% 4 - 18 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 B F F B- +4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 218 @Queens L 72 - 91 13% -5  22% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F -19 D- -8 C- F F F -12 D+ F F+
 Wed, Feb 11 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 90 16% -7  9% 4 - 20 4 - 9 D -11 C +1 C- D+ B- F -11 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @Jacksonville L 75 - 81 27%
 Thu, Feb 19 152 Austin Peay L 80 - 89 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 333 @Stetson L 82 - 86 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 243 Florida Gulf Coast L 82 - 87 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 308 Jacksonville L 77 - 78 49%
Totals 6 - 23 6 - 12 -12 C +0 C+ D+ D+ F -12 D- F F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B- C+ C+ 33% 13% 54% B- C+ D B D+ D+ F+ A- D F D F C- D- 41% 16% 42% D D- F F+ F F B- B- B-
1.08 57% 41% 35% +1 +1 1.05 25% 1.1 .28 19% .24 79% .19 1.25 64% 48% 34% +4 +1 1.12 37% 1.2 .45 12% .28 70% .16
Nov
6		 Florida D F F F F 38% 17% 45% A- F+ D+ A+ A F+ A A+ A+ C- D+ F A+ A+ 47% 3% 50% D A+ F F F B F+ A C-
0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30 1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27
Nov
12		 Tennessee D+ F+ B D- D+ 33% 9% 58% B+ C- B- B+ B F F F F D C+ F B+ B- 42% 15% 43% D+ B- F F F C C- C- C-
0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10 1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27
Nov
19		 Wofford D+ C F A B 36% 12% 53% C B F B F C+ F D+ F D+ C- F A+ C+ 50% 4% 46% F C F F F D+ F+ A D+
1.07 57% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 12% 1.3 .15 15% .13 75% .10 1.18 58% 100% 25% -4 +3 1.00 36% 1.5 .56 14% .40 64% .25
Nov
22		 Southern Miss B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 18% 58% D A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F D F A+ F 52% 30% 19% F+ F F D F F+ D- A+ C+
1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15 1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26
Nov
23		 Prairie View C- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 11% 53% C+ A+ C C- C- F B- C B- F F D- B F+ 24% 39% 37% A D- F A+ C- D+ F B+ F
1.12 63% 80% 46% +16 +1 1.36 38% 1.0 .38 29% .42 73% .31 1.16 69% 43% 30% +2 -3 1.00 45% 0.5 .23 14% .52 70% .36
Dec
2		 SIU Edwardsville D- F B D+ D 35% 14% 51% B C- F A+ C- D- F A+ F F+ B+ D- D C- 45% 15% 40% F D F C+ F F D- B+ D+
0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13 1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21
Dec
7		 Gonzaga F F A- F C- 9% 29% 62% F+ D+ D- B+ C- D F+ F F+ F F A+ F F+ 40% 31% 29% B- D- D- F F B- C+ D+ C+
0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13 1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20
Dec
13		 Dayton D- F F+ F F 35% 20% 45% C+ F B C+ B- C+ C- C- C- D- F F A- F 45% 9% 45% D F F A+ C+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20 1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13
Dec
18		 Charleston Southern C+ C+ B- C B- 40% 16% 44% B B- F A+ D C+ C- A B- F F F F F 25% 10% 65% B- F A- D- C+ F+ D+ F F
1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28 1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25
Dec
21		 Miami (FL) D F+ F C D- 27% 14% 59% B- D C- A+ B F B- A+ A F F F B+ F+ 47% 16% 36% C D- F C+ F D- F C F
0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25 1.40 73% 78% 30% +12 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31
Dec
28		 Columbia C D- A+ B+ B- 42% 10% 48% B+ B F C+ F+ B F A+ F+ F D- F F F 51% 12% 37% D- F A+ F B+ F F+ F F
1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17 1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28
Jan
1		 Austin Peay C+ D- C+ A C+ 37% 10% 53% B C+ F D- F+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C+ F A C+ 39% 18% 44% C- C+ F F F F D+ D- D
1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35 1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25
Jan
3		 Lipscomb C- F B B- D+ 23% 12% 65% B- C- C- F D- C- F A+ F D+ A A+ C B+ 26% 18% 56% A A- F C F F F A D-
1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07 1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23
Jan
8		 West Georgia F A- F F F 41% 7% 52% B- F C- A+ A+ D- F C+ F F D- F C- F 30% 36% 34% B- F C+ F F+ F+ D- F F
1.02 70% 25% 21% -6 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14 1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27
Jan
10		 Queens D A B+ D C 38% 15% 47% C+ C F A D B F A+ F D- D- A+ B+ B- 45% 5% 49% F C F F F D- F C F+
1.13 70% 44% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 1.3 .29 12% .19 83% .16 1.23 68% 0% 30% -1 +2 1.05 38% 1.4 .54 12% .38 75% .28
Jan
15		 North Alabama A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% D+ A+ C+ B+ B A B- A+ A F D- D D- F 60% 10% 31% F F F+ F F F D+ B- C-
1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21
Jan
17		 Central Arkansas D- F+ A+ C C- 24% 14% 63% D+ C- F F F C- B- D- C+ F D- F F+ F 33% 11% 56% D+ F F D F F C- F D
0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21 1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22
Jan
22		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B- A+ B- B- 45% 12% 43% A- B B B- B D+ D B- D+ F+ B- C- D- D+ 43% 9% 48% F D- D+ F F D+ C A+ A
1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22 1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12
Jan
24		 Bellarmine A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 9% 60% B A+ F A+ A- A- B- A+ A F F B F F 55% 9% 36% F F C- F F F B- D+ C+
1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28 1.44 76% 33% 42% +14 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
29		 Stetson D C+ C F F 44% 10% 46% B+ D- D A- C C- C+ A+ B F C+ D- D- D- 43% 13% 44% F F+ F B- D F C- B C
1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24 1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lipscomb A C+ F A+ A- 33% 5% 62% A A B+ B+ A- C C- A+ B+ F F C F F 59% 5% 36% F F A F C- F B C B
1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25 1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +4 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15
Feb
5		 West Georgia D+ C+ A A- B 45% 11% 43% C+ B D F F F D+ C C- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 42% C A+ C D+ C- F B- C+ B-
1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22 0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17
Feb
7		 Queens D- F+ F A+ C- 26% 19% 55% D- C- F F+ F F A+ C- A F F F B D+ 33% 15% 53% C+ D+ F F+ F F+ B+ F D+
1.04 50% 11% 46% +3 -1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 20% .45 72% .33 1.32 72% 50% 31% +4 0 1.11 41% 1.2 .50 12% .25 100% .25
Feb
11		 Florida Gulf Coast C F+ A+ C+ C- 29% 11% 61% C+ C- C D D+ B- B- D C F D F F F 42% 32% 26% C F D C- D F F A+ D-
1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27 1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.4 1.4 5th
6th 1.1 1.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 4.6 1.0 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 2.3 6.8 0.2 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 11.7 2.8 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 5.4 15.8 0.2 21.5 10th
11th 12.4 25.7 2.8 41.0 11th
12th 2.4 1.0 3.4 12th
Total 14.9 32.2 32.8 15.5 4.1 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-11 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.5
6-12 32.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.8
5-13 32.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.2
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.5%