Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#315
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#322
Pace63.1#313
Improvement-1.7#342

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#318
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#308
Layup/Dunks-5.1#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#238
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement-1.3#334

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#268
First Shot-3.4#292
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#148
Layups/Dunks-6.5#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#24
Freethrows-1.8#309
Improvement-0.4#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.2% 20.5% 44.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 46 - 108 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. L 50-99 3%     0 - 1 -34.8 -19.0 -13.7
  Nov 11, 2022 4   @ Purdue L 44-63 1%     0 - 2 +1.8 -10.5 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2022 129   @ South Florida W 62-60 11%     1 - 2 +7.0 -1.7 +8.9
  Nov 21, 2022 336   Albany W 74-59 59%     2 - 2 +4.3 +2.8 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2022 295   Bucknell L 65-79 46%     2 - 3 -21.2 -7.9 -14.1
  Nov 26, 2022 269   Howard L 55-56 50%     2 - 4 -9.3 -18.4 +9.1
  Nov 30, 2022 163   Western Kentucky L 74-75 29%     2 - 5 -3.4 +4.1 -7.6
  Dec 03, 2022 321   Tennessee St. W 77-61 64%     3 - 5 +4.1 +5.0 +0.8
  Dec 16, 2022 159   @ Murray St. L 60-68 15%     3 - 6 -4.9 -9.7 +4.4
  Dec 21, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 44-86 1%     3 - 7 -20.6 -11.7 -11.7
  Dec 29, 2022 221   @ Queens L 77-81 22%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -4.0 -0.2 -3.8
  Dec 31, 2022 282   @ North Florida L 85-90 OT 33%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -8.8 +0.8 -9.2
  Jan 05, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 61-59 30%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -0.7 -9.3 +8.7
  Jan 07, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 86-62 70%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +10.3 +12.7 -0.5
  Jan 12, 2023 194   Lipscomb L 65-87 34%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -26.0 -10.9 -14.7
  Jan 14, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 72-86 18%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -12.5 -0.3 -12.2
  Jan 19, 2023 253   Bellarmine L 45-56 47%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -18.5 -21.6 +0.4
  Jan 21, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky L 59-74 34%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -18.9 -15.0 -4.2
  Jan 26, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 57-84 14%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -23.4 -18.7 -2.6
  Jan 28, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 53-70 29%     5 - 15 2 - 8 -19.3 -15.4 -5.9
  Feb 02, 2023 70   Liberty L 55-69 10%    
  Feb 04, 2023 221   Queens L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 291   @ North Alabama L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 11, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 16, 2023 197   Jacksonville L 58-62 36%    
  Feb 18, 2023 282   North Florida W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 22, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 24, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 60-71 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.4 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 2.8 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.3 4.1 7.6 1.2 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.1 4.6 12.0 4.6 0.1 21.4 12th
13th 5.6 17.0 9.5 0.8 32.9 13th
14th 5.0 11.3 5.7 0.6 0.0 22.6 14th
Total 5.0 17.0 27.6 26.3 15.9 6.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-12 15.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.9
5-13 26.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 26.2
4-14 27.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 27.6
3-15 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
2-16 5.0% 5.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%