Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#170
Pace69.9#177
Improvement-2.3#324

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#269
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks+1.0#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows-2.4#312
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#116
First Shot-2.3#254
After Offensive Rebounds+4.0#6
Layups/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#249
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-2.8#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 15.1% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 77.4% 83.0% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 87.3% 78.9%
Conference Champion 16.6% 18.4% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.0%
First Round13.5% 14.8% 9.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 329 @Air Force W 74-54 68%     1 - 0 +13.2 -1.8 +14.5
  Tue, Nov 11 99 @Wyoming L 65-79 17%     1 - 1 -5.9 -9.9 +5.2
  Sat, Nov 15 276 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 55%     2 - 1 +2.7 -9.5 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 57 @Mississippi L 65-72 9%     2 - 2 +6.0 +0.6 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 21 85 @Tulsa L 75-84 14%     2 - 3 +0.4 +5.7 -5.6
  Tue, Nov 25 332 Northern Illinois W 77-59 85%     3 - 3 +4.6 +3.1 +3.0
  Wed, Dec 3 118 @Kent St. L 84-96 22%     3 - 4 -6.1 +7.4 -12.9
  Sun, Dec 7 206 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-63 42%     3 - 5 -13.0 -20.5 +7.3
  Fri, Dec 12 119 East Tennessee St. W 76-75 43%     4 - 5 +0.9 +3.1 -2.2
  Sun, Dec 21 344 @UMKC W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Jan 1 343 North Florida W 85-72 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 293 Jacksonville W 72-64 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 180 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @Stetson W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 248 Eastern Kentucky W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 141 @Lipscomb L 69-75 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 180 Florida Gulf Coast W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 346 Stetson W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 248 @Eastern Kentucky L 73-74 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 316 @West Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 141 Lipscomb L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 198 North Alabama W 71-68 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 194 @Queens L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 295 Bellarmine W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 @North Florida W 82-75 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 293 @Jacksonville W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 285 Central Arkansas W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 295 @Bellarmine W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.9 4.8 2.8 1.1 0.2 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.3 0.4 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.9 9.9 12.8 14.6 14.7 13.0 9.9 6.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 95.4% 2.8    2.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 78.9% 4.8    3.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 49.2% 4.9    2.1 2.1 0.5 0.1
13-5 18.7% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.8 5.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 61.2% 61.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 39.9% 39.9% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 2.9% 35.5% 35.5% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9
15-3 6.1% 31.5% 31.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.9% 24.4% 24.4% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.1 7.4
13-5 13.0% 18.7% 18.7% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.3 10.6
12-6 14.7% 14.5% 14.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 12.6
11-7 14.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 13.0
10-8 12.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 11.8
9-9 9.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 9.5
8-10 6.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.7
7-11 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.9
6-12 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
5-13 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.7 2.7 86.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 36.0 56.0 8.0