Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.2 157
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 119
Pace 71.2 113
Improvement +1.3 132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #205 D+ C C+ C- C
Defense C+ #131 D+ A- B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 53% 298 -1.4 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 169 38% 164 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 40% 210 33% 221 -1.2 220
1st FG Attempt 0.97 249 -2.4 249
Second Chance 27.4% 267 1.14 49 0.31 168
Turnovers 16.3% 144
Freethrows 0.29 244 72% 188 0.21 233
Total Offense -1.5 205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 63% 314 -2.9 282
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 188 39% 219 -0.1 199
Three Pointers 40% 211 34% 197 +0.3 168
1st FG Attempt 1.07 265 -2.7 267
Second Chance 31.0% 198 0.73 3 0.22 17
Turnovers 19.0% 67
Freethrows 0.29 130 68% 22 0.20 82
Total Defense +1.3 131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 191 +0.1 192
Shot Type Accuracy -2.3 255 +2.5 281
Possession Length 16.9 127 16.8 107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 103 0.20 278
Improvement +4.4 #11 -3.1 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.5% 33.3% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 80.9% 90.5% 72.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.5% 33.3% 28.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 418 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 350 @Air Force W 74 - 54 81% +10  95% 1 - 0 B +10 D -5 C D F A+ +15 C+ B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 105 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 24% -5  2% 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -13 F C F+ B+ +8 C+ A A-
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 69% +3  74% 2 - 1 C +1 F -14 F C- F+ A+ +15 C A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 61 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 13% -7  0% 2 - 2 B- +5 D+ -2 D- B- C+ B+ +7 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 64 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 14% +2  60% 2 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +3 B C- B+ C -1 F+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 308 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 86% +7  79% 3 - 3 B- +6 B- +4 A B B- B- +4 B+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 146 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 34% -3  11% 3 - 4 D -8 B +6 A F C+ F -14 F C- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 150 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 36% -0  42% 3 - 5 D -9 F -22 F D- C A +13 B+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 12 129 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 53% +6  98% 4 - 5 C -0 C- -0 C F+ A- C+ +0 D+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 347 North Florida W 102 - 83 91% +8  86% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +3 F A+ A C -1 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 306 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 85% +2  65% 6 - 5 2 - 0 D -9 F+ -8 F D- A- C -0 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 238 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 55% +3  67% 7 - 5 3 - 0 B +10 B +7 D+ A+ B B- +3 D+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @Stetson W 81 - 69 78% +7  92% 8 - 5 4 - 0 C+ +4 C +0 F C+ A+ B- +3 C+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 260 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 79% +1  58% 9 - 5 5 - 0 D+ -7 C- -1 D- A C- D -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 193 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 46% -2  22% 9 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 D+ -2 D C+ D+ C -1 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 238 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 76% +12  96% 10 - 6 6 - 1 B+ +14 B +7 C B+ A B+ +8 C B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 333 Stetson W 73 - 65 90% +0  34% 11 - 6 7 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 F A+ D- C+ +1 C- A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 260 @Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 82 59% +10  97% 12 - 6 8 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 B+ C+ F C +0 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 31 319 @West Georgia W 81 - 78 74% +6  89% 13 - 6 9 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F F+ B- C -1 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 193 Lipscomb W 87 - 76 68% +4  60% 14 - 6 10 - 1 B- +6 B +6 A+ F B C -1 D+ B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 341 North Alabama W 91 - 62 90% +17  90% 15 - 6 11 - 1 A- +14 A+ +20 A+ B+ B+ C- -2 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 11 203 @Queens L 80 - 81 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 278 Bellarmine W 82 - 72 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 347 @North Florida W 88 - 79 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 306 @Jacksonville W 72 - 67 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 189 Central Arkansas W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 @Bellarmine W 79 - 75 63%
Totals 19 - 8 15 - 3 +0 C- -1 D+ C C+ C+ +1 D+ A- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C C- D+ 39% 21% 40% C D+ D+ B C C+ C- C C- C+ D C- C D+ 40% 20% 40% C D+ C A+ A- B C+ A- B-
1.07 53% 38% 33% -2 0 0.97 27% 1.1 .31 16% .29 72% .21 1.07 63% 39% 34% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 19% .29 68% .20
Nov
8		 Air Force D B- A+ D+ C+ 30% 23% 47% D+ C C- D- D F A+ F A+ A+ D A+ D C 32% 18% 50% B+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ F A+ B
1.03 64% 55% 32% +4 -1 1.09 28% 0.9 .25 24% .53 59% .31 0.75 64% 0% 36% -3 0 0.95 38% 0.5 .18 31% .48 33% .16
Nov
11		 Wyoming F B- F F F 46% 10% 44% B F C- B C F+ C C+ C+ B+ A F+ F B- 52% 12% 37% D C+ B A+ A A- D A- C-
0.85 61% 0% 18% -13 +2 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 21% .40 71% .28 1.03 44% 50% 42% -1 +2 1.04 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 70% .26
Nov
15		 UNC Greensboro F D- F F F 39% 22% 39% C F D+ B C- F+ C F D+ A+ C- C B+ C 35% 22% 43% C C A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C+
0.95 52% 25% 29% -8 0 0.85 27% 1.2 .32 16% .26 63% .16 0.86 59% 36% 29% -3 -1 0.94 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 63% .25
Nov
18		 Mississippi D+ F D+ D- F+ 29% 21% 50% C D- A- D B- C+ F A+ F B+ C- A A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% C A+ D F F B+ D- B D
0.95 38% 33% 29% -11 -1 0.79 38% 0.9 .36 18% .12 86% .11 1.06 64% 29% 22% -8 -3 0.82 35% 1.3 .45 16% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Tulsa C+ D- A A+ B- 49% 17% 34% B B C- C C- B+ C- D D+ C F+ B F F 35% 6% 59% C+ F+ B+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C+
1.10 50% 44% 44% +3 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19 1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26
Nov
25		 Northern Illinois B- A+ D A A 36% 14% 50% C- A C A- B B- B+ F C- B- F C A+ B+ 38% 21% 40% A- B+ B A B+ F B- A+ A+
1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24 0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13
Dec
3		 Kent St. B D B- A+ A 41% 9% 50% B+ A C F F C+ F+ D+ F+ F F D F F 40% 10% 50% D- F A+ F C- D+ F B- F
1.14 52% 40% 46% +7 +2 1.20 30% 0.5 .16 15% .26 69% .18 1.31 68% 40% 54% +20 +1 1.44 23% 1.7 .38 18% .53 72% .38
Dec
7		 UT Rio Grande Valley F F F F F 58% 14% 28% A+ F F C+ D- C C F D+ A B- F A B 28% 26% 47% A B+ F+ C D- A+ C F+ C-
0.72 41% 14% 14% -21 +2 0.64 21% 0.9 .19 17% .33 63% .21 0.91 54% 50% 27% -3 -1 0.94 34% 1.1 .38 29% .22 82% .18
Dec
12		 East Tennessee St. C- D+ A+ C+ C 39% 12% 49% C+ C C+ F F+ A- C A+ B C+ D D C D+ 41% 16% 43% C- D+ C A+ A+ B- A- C- B+
1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25 1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19
Jan
1		 North Florida C+ D A+ F F 39% 18% 44% C- F B- A+ A+ A B A A- C B C F D+ 37% 10% 53% D D+ B+ A+ A+ C+ F C- F
1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25 1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35
Jan
3		 Jacksonville F+ D+ F F F 44% 20% 35% C F D- D D- A- C A- B- C F+ B F F 38% 20% 42% C F C- D D+ A+ F A+ C-
1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28 0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21
Jan
8		 Florida Gulf Coast B F F B+ D 35% 10% 54% B- D+ C A+ A+ B A- D B B- C F B- D 24% 31% 45% B+ D+ B- B+ B A- D- A C-
1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31 1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
10		 Stetson C F+ A- F F+ 40% 31% 29% D- F F A+ C+ A+ A+ F A B- D+ B- A- B- 30% 17% 54% C- C+ F+ B- D+ B- A A- A
1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28 0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12
Jan
15		 Eastern Kentucky C- D D C- F 46% 17% 38% B D- A B- A C- C B- C D F F F F 26% 28% 47% B- F D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25 1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11
Jan
17		 Lipscomb D+ F B C+ D+ 33% 33% 34% D- D D A+ C+ D+ D+ B- C- C D F B+ D 62% 7% 31% F D- C- A+ A+ C C F F+
1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20 1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24
Jan
22		 Florida Gulf Coast B D A+ C C+ 28% 24% 48% D- C B- A B+ A F D+ F B+ C- C+ C C 37% 27% 37% C- C F A+ B A+ A A+ A+
1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19 0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08
Jan
23		 Stetson D- B C- F F 33% 31% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ D- C+ B- B- C+ D- C B+ C- 32% 23% 45% C+ C- C A+ A C- F+ C D-
1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22 0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25
Jan
28		 Eastern Kentucky B- B C- A+ A- 37% 29% 34% D B+ F A+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ B+ A- 25% 31% 44% B+ A- F A+ A F F F F
1.22 67% 42% 50% +13 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61 1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37
Jan
31		 West Georgia D+ D+ A+ F F 44% 11% 44% C+ F F D F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C C- B C- D+ 43% 31% 26% D- D+ A+ A- A+ F F B F+
1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53 1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25
Feb
4		 Lipscomb B A+ D+ A+ A+ 36% 36% 27% D- A+ F C- F B D D- D- C F A+ A D+ 51% 9% 40% D- D+ B- B B C+ A- F B
1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16 1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 North Alabama A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 54% 6% 40% A A+ D A+ B+ B+ F F F C- B- F A D+ 59% 18% 24% F+ D+ F A+ A B- A+ F A
1.47 63% 100% 55% +19 +3 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 11% .16 67% .11 1.00 50% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.96 45% 0.5 .21 19% .18 78% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 12.2 28.9 28.0 11.0 80.9 1st
2nd 0.5 4.6 8.3 1.9 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.1 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.7 7.7 20.6 30.8 28.0 11.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 11.0    11.0
16-2 100.0% 28.0    27.2 0.8
15-3 93.8% 28.9    20.6 8.2 0.1
14-4 59.0% 12.2    3.7 6.5 2.0 0.0
13-5 10.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 80.9% 80.9 62.6 15.8 2.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 11.0% 39.0% 39.0% 13.1 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.0 6.7
16-2 28.0% 35.0% 35.0% 13.8 0.1 2.5 6.0 1.2 0.0 18.2
15-3 30.8% 30.6% 30.6% 14.2 1.1 5.5 2.9 0.0 21.4
14-4 20.6% 24.7% 24.7% 14.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 0.1 15.5
13-5 7.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 6.1
12-6 1.7% 17.2% 17.2% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 14.0 69.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 13.1 17.4 56.0 26.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%