Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#256
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#168
Pace66.6#245
Improvement+1.8#49

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#237
First Shot-0.5#190
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#272
Layup/Dunks-10.1#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#36
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#10
Freethrows-2.4#311
Improvement+0.1#167

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#279
First Shot+1.2#131
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#348
Layups/Dunks-8.8#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#4
Freethrows-2.0#288
Improvement+1.7#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 36.4% 62.9% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 56.9% 71.3% 55.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.4% 3.2%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 2.9% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 155   @ Southern Illinois L 55-73 20%     0 - 1 -14.3 -8.4 -8.1
  Nov 16, 2021 275   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 60-65 42%     0 - 2 -8.1 -13.3 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2021 112   @ Dayton W 87-81 14%     1 - 2 +12.6 +13.6 -1.2
  Nov 26, 2021 313   @ Howard W 69-67 51%     2 - 2 -3.5 -11.4 +7.9
  Nov 29, 2021 91   @ TCU L 61-75 9%    
  Dec 11, 2021 288   @ North Florida L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 14, 2021 208   @ South Florida L 57-63 28%    
  Dec 18, 2021 78   @ Vanderbilt L 61-76 9%    
  Dec 22, 2021 126   Western Kentucky L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 329   SIU Edwardsville W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 135   Morehead St. L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 66   @ Belmont L 66-82 8%    
  Jan 15, 2022 346   Eastern Illinois W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 20, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 318   @ Tennessee St. W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 27, 2022 66   Belmont L 69-79 19%    
  Jan 29, 2022 261   @ Tennessee Tech L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 03, 2022 88   Murray St. L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 135   @ Morehead St. L 61-72 18%    
  Feb 10, 2022 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 318   Tennessee St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 88   @ Murray St. L 60-74 11%    
  Feb 19, 2022 261   Tennessee Tech W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 329   @ SIU Edwardsville W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 346   @ Eastern Illinois W 71-65 68%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.8 8.1 7.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 25.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 6.3 7.4 4.4 1.1 0.1 21.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.8 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 8.3 11.6 13.7 14.3 13.6 11.6 8.4 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 43.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-4 10.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 22.6% 22.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 27.8% 27.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 17.2% 17.2% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.5% 9.8% 9.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
13-5 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.8
12-6 8.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
11-7 11.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.3
10-8 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 13.5
9-9 14.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.2
8-10 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
7-11 11.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
5-13 4.8% 4.8
4-14 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 98.3 0.0%