Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#238
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#171
Pace62.6#335
Improvement-3.9#357

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#280
First Shot-3.9#287
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#216
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-2.6#345

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#182
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#242
Layups/Dunks-8.1#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#8
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#6
Freethrows-2.7#325
Improvement-1.3#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 7.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 40.9% 61.8% 36.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 75.7% 64.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 7.1% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.1% 2.5%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round4.9% 7.4% 4.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 54   @ Butler W 68-66 7%     1 - 0 +14.7 +5.3 +9.5
  Nov 11, 2024 200   Chattanooga W 67-61 53%     2 - 0 +1.2 -4.5 +6.2
  Nov 17, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 68-103 1%     2 - 1 -11.8 +5.7 -16.5
  Nov 20, 2024 266   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 45%     2 - 2 -7.9 -8.5 -0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 230   Georgia St. W 62-50 49%     3 - 2 +8.2 -5.1 +14.9
  Nov 27, 2024 161   Texas Arlington L 58-68 35%     3 - 3 -10.3 -10.3 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2024 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-79 21%     3 - 4 -17.6 -10.5 -8.4
  Dec 08, 2024 121   @ Samford L 71-81 18%    
  Dec 14, 2024 169   Southern Illinois L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 18, 2024 157   @ Ohio L 67-74 24%    
  Dec 21, 2024 67   @ Vanderbilt L 63-79 7%    
  Jan 02, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 10, 2025 349   West Georgia W 71-60 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 290   Queens W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 62-73 15%    
  Jan 23, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 214   @ North Alabama L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 30, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 214   North Alabama W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 329   Stetson W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 290   @ Queens L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 24, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 26, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 68-63 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.1 3.3 0.4 13.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 6.5 9.1 11.8 13.7 14.4 13.1 10.2 7.7 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 70.2% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1
14-4 37.5% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.4% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 37.0% 37.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.7% 18.5% 18.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.1% 23.3% 23.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 4.1% 15.4% 15.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5
13-5 7.7% 12.1% 12.1% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.7
12-6 10.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.4
11-7 13.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 12.3
10-8 14.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 13.7
9-9 13.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.1 0.3 13.3
8-10 11.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.6
7-11 9.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.0
6-12 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 3.5% 3.5
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 94.8 0.0%