Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#329
Expected Predictive Rating-17.6#360
Pace70.2#152
Improvement+1.8#65

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#271
First Shot-2.0#233
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#273
Layup/Dunks+0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#102
Freethrows-2.1#290
Improvement+0.6#128

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#346
First Shot-5.3#333
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#238
Layups/Dunks-3.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#310
Freethrows+3.0#28
Improvement+1.2#78
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 1.0% 1.9% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 19.9% 25.3% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.3% 14.6% 20.8%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 47 - 107 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha L 76-79 53%     0 - 1 -13.4 -3.7 -9.7
  Nov 11, 2024 325   @ The Citadel L 52-74 37%     0 - 2 -28.1 -20.3 -8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 41   @ Oklahoma L 64-85 2%     0 - 3 -6.6 -2.3 -4.3
  Nov 21, 2024 203   Toledo L 78-103 23%     0 - 4 -26.9 -2.5 -23.2
  Nov 22, 2024 159   East Carolina L 64-71 18%     0 - 5 -6.8 -5.8 -1.2
  Nov 23, 2024 143   La Salle L 77-92 16%     0 - 6 -14.0 +2.0 -15.3
  Dec 03, 2024 148   @ South Florida L 72-74 11%     0 - 7 +1.6 +0.2 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2024 232   Mercer L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 14, 2024 253   Florida International L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 17, 2024 47   @ LSU L 65-88 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 10   @ Florida L 64-94 0.3%   
  Jan 02, 2025 290   @ Queens L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 214   North Alabama L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 290   Queens W 79-78 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 349   West Georgia W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-82 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 75-87 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-75 15%    
  Feb 06, 2025 212   Jacksonville L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 66-83 7%    
  Feb 15, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 18, 2025 182   North Florida L 78-84 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 24, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 68-78 19%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.4 2.9 5.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.0 4.3 0.6 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 16.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 14.3 11th
12th 0.3 1.5 3.4 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.4 8.1 11.7 14.3 14.8 13.6 11.5 8.3 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 69.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
11-7 3.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.2 3.2
10-8 5.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.3
9-9 8.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.2
8-10 11.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.4
7-11 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-14 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
3-15 8.1% 8.1
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%