Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#159
Pace61.7#332
Improvement-0.5#255

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#73
First Shot+2.0#106
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#67
Layup/Dunks-3.4#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#11
Freethrows-2.1#323
Improvement-1.6#346

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#319
First Shot-3.5#295
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#318
Layups/Dunks-4.1#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
Freethrows-0.1#197
Improvement+1.1#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.5% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 63.3% 70.7% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 98.3% 87.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round3.0% 3.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 140   @ Florida St. W 83-74 29%     1 - 0 +13.4 +18.0 -3.9
  Nov 14, 2022 129   @ South Florida W 68-67 27%     2 - 0 +6.0 +13.8 -7.6
  Nov 18, 2022 196   Rider W 78-68 50%     3 - 0 +8.6 +8.2 +1.0
  Nov 19, 2022 239   Niagara L 62-66 60%     3 - 1 -8.0 -1.0 -7.6
  Nov 27, 2022 255   @ Campbell L 85-87 OT 52%     3 - 2 -4.1 +9.3 -13.3
  Dec 04, 2022 40   @ Florida L 51-89 8%     3 - 3 -24.0 -8.5 -17.2
  Dec 14, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 60-65 16%     3 - 4 +4.3 -0.5 +4.1
  Dec 17, 2022 153   @ Ohio L 66-85 32%     3 - 5 -15.6 -6.7 -9.3
  Dec 21, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 58-73 12%     3 - 6 -3.9 +6.0 -13.6
  Dec 30, 2022 194   @ Lipscomb W 86-80 OT 39%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +7.5 +7.7 -0.7
  Jan 02, 2023 282   North Florida W 68-62 77%     5 - 6 2 - 0 -3.3 -6.6 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2023 197   Jacksonville W 73-61 60%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +7.9 +8.8 +0.8
  Jan 07, 2023 291   @ North Alabama W 95-85 OT 60%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +5.8 +11.7 -6.5
  Jan 12, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine W 80-51 52%     8 - 6 5 - 0 +26.9 +22.5 +10.7
  Jan 14, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-85 39%     8 - 7 5 - 1 -13.5 -0.7 -13.2
  Jan 19, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 81-82 OT 52%     8 - 8 5 - 2 -2.9 +1.7 -4.5
  Jan 21, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 87-81 73%     9 - 8 6 - 2 -1.8 +10.4 -12.2
  Jan 26, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 45-74 13%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -18.1 -14.3 -8.4
  Jan 28, 2023 221   @ Queens L 65-71 44%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -6.0 -11.2 +5.1
  Feb 02, 2023 291   North Alabama W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 09, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 282   @ North Florida W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 15, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 22, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 72-63 82%    
  Feb 24, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 74-71 60%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.6 1.4 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 9.8 15.8 6.6 0.7 33.6 3rd
4th 0.1 6.3 14.1 4.7 0.4 0.0 25.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 9.9 3.3 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 4.4 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 0.6 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.4 10.8 21.9 27.5 22.8 10.6 2.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.3% 7.1% 7.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 10.6% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.1
12-6 22.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 21.8
11-7 27.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 26.7
10-8 21.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 21.5
9-9 10.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 10.6
8-10 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.0 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 7.1% 13.8 0.1 2.1 4.0 0.9
Lose Out 0.1%