Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#345
Expected Predictive Rating-11.2#320
Pace68.5#204
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#332
First Shot-4.6#304
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks-4.6#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#102
Freethrows-2.0#302
Improvement+0.1#176

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#342
First Shot-5.4#340
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#356
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 1.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 2.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 15.4% 7.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 39.6% 23.8% 39.7%
First Four0.3% 1.2% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 118 @Rhode Island L 62-93 6%     0 - 1 -24.9 -10.0 -13.2
  Mon, Nov 10 33 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 1%     0 - 2 -24.6 -9.5 -10.5
  Sun, Nov 16 293 @Western Carolina L 65-76 23%     0 - 3 -15.2 -11.7 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 19 310 Howard W 64-60 48%     1 - 3 -7.3 -12.2 +5.0
  Sat, Nov 22 331 VMI W 99-80 56%     2 - 3 +5.7 +24.0 -17.2
  Tue, Nov 25 142 Wright St. L 62-79 17%     2 - 4 -18.9 -5.5 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 29 319 Southern Utah L 68-70 39%     2 - 5 -11.0 -7.7 -3.3
  Sun, Nov 30 184 @Robert Morris L 62-80 11%     2 - 6 -16.8 -0.8 -18.5
  Tue, Dec 2 95 @Grand Canyon L 45-67 4%     2 - 7 -13.6 -19.2 +4.3
  Sat, Dec 6 86 @South Carolina L 51-82 4%     2 - 8 -21.8 -12.4 -12.5
  Mon, Dec 22 52 @Oklahoma L 64-89 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 197 @North Alabama L 65-77 12%    
  Sat, Jan 3 284 @Central Arkansas L 68-76 22%    
  Thu, Jan 8 141 Lipscomb L 69-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 195 Austin Peay L 67-74 27%    
  Thu, Jan 15 317 West Georgia L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 198 Queens L 75-81 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 141 @Lipscomb L 66-82 7%    
  Sat, Jan 24 195 @Austin Peay L 64-77 13%    
  Thu, Jan 29 342 @North Florida L 78-81 39%    
  Sat, Jan 31 197 North Alabama L 68-74 28%    
  Thu, Feb 5 296 @Bellarmine L 71-79 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-81 19%    
  Thu, Feb 12 294 Jacksonville L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 179 @Florida Gulf Coast L 70-83 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 284 Central Arkansas L 71-73 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 342 North Florida W 81-78 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 294 @Jacksonville L 66-74 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 179 Florida Gulf Coast L 73-80 25%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.0 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.6 4.9 1.0 0.0 16.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 5.1 8.5 5.5 1.4 0.0 22.0 11th
12th 1.2 4.5 8.0 8.5 4.3 1.0 0.1 27.5 12th
Total 1.2 4.6 9.4 14.1 16.3 15.7 13.8 10.4 7.0 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 31.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 7.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-11 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 15.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-14 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-15 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.1
2-16 9.4% 9.4
1-17 4.6% 4.6
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%