Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.2 333
Expected Predictive Rating -9.9 320
Pace 68.5 189
Improvement +1.9 110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #299 D+ D D+ D+ C-
Defense D #341 D- D- D+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 328 58% 175 -3.5 298
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 163 36% 248 -0.2 187
Three Pointers 46% 74 31% 297 +0.6 159
1st FG Attempt 0.96 272 -3.1 271
Second Chance 25.2% 326 1.00 213 0.25 309
Turnovers 18.6% 285
Freethrows 0.29 240 70% 256 0.20 248
Total Offense -4.7 299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 67% 360 -4.0 319
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 259 45% 351 -0.2 202
Three Pointers 43% 114 35% 227 -1.7 268
1st FG Attempt 1.14 342 -5.9 342
Second Chance 32.4% 254 1.18 347 0.38 326
Turnovers 14.9% 303
Freethrows 0.28 83 73% 207 0.20 98
Total Defense -6.5 341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 262 +0.4 239
Shot Type Accuracy -2.5 265 +5.4 348
Possession Length 18.2 266 16.5 44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 294 0.19 246
Improvement +2.8 #53 -1.0 #246

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 7.1% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 4.5% 21.1%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 48 - 99 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 6% -17  0% 0 - 1 F -25 F -12 D- F F F -11 D- F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 1% -18  22% 0 - 2 F -25 F -14 F C- D D -7 D- B+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 282 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 24% -8  9% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -18 F D+ B- B- +3 F A- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 236 Howard W 64 - 60 35% +10  97% 1 - 3 C- -3 F -10 D- F F+ B+ +7 A A F
 Sat, Nov 22 358 VMI W 99 - 80 74% +9  89% 2 - 3 C +1 A+ +19 A+ B+ B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 151 Wright St. L 62 - 79 20% -15  7% 2 - 4 F -19 F -11 D- C+ D- F+ -10 F F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 284 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 34% +3  66% 2 - 5 D -9 F+ -9 D+ C F C +0 D+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 205 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 14% -12  5% 2 - 6 F -18 D -5 F D+ B+ F -15 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 63 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  11% 2 - 7 D -11 F -19 D- D- F B+ +7 B+ D A-
 Sat, Dec 6 93 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 4% -15  9% 2 - 8 F -23 F -15 F D- A F+ -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 54 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  1% 2 - 9 F -40 F -16 F C- F F -25 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 341 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 40% +0  53% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -6 D -6 B F F C+ +0 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 189 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 13% -13  7% 3 - 10 1 - 1 F -19 C +0 B+ C- D- F -20 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 193 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 28% +11  96% 4 - 10 2 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 A+ F B+ C- -3 F+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 22% -7  5% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F+ -15 D- -7 F+ B C- D- -8 C F F
 Thu, Jan 15 319 West Georgia W 95 - 86 57% +4  91% 5 - 11 3 - 2 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -13 D- F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 203 Queens L 81 - 87 30% -8  0% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C+ D C- F+ -10 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 193 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 13% -5  11% 5 - 13 3 - 4 C- -4 F -11 D F F B+ +7 B- A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 157 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 10% -0  54% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 D D- C+ C -1 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 347 @North Florida W 84 - 77 42% +6  93% 6 - 14 4 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C- F A- C -1 B- F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 341 North Alabama L 66 - 68 63% -3  10% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -17 F -10 F B- D- D -7 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 278 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 24% -11  5% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -25 D+ -2 D+ B+ D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 260 @Eastern Kentucky L 88 - 100 21% -0  40% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F+ -15 B +7 B- B- C- F -22 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 306 Jacksonville W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 238 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 81 18%
 Thu, Feb 19 189 Central Arkansas L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 347 North Florida W 86 - 82 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 306 @Jacksonville L 67 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 238 Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 78 36%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11 D+ -5 D+ D D+ D -6 D- D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- D D+ 33% 21% 46% C- D+ D C- D D+ C- D+ D+ D F+ F+ C- F+ 39% 18% 43% C- D- D+ F+ D- D+ B- C B-
1.02 58% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 19% .29 70% .20 1.18 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.14 32% 1.2 .38 15% .28 73% .21
Nov
3		 Rhode Island F F B+ D- F+ 38% 15% 48% C+ D- D+ F F F B+ F D+ F F F A- F+ 40% 16% 44% C D- F F F C- D F+ F+
0.84 44% 43% 30% -7 +1 0.90 28% 0.6 .18 27% .41 55% .22 1.26 80% 50% 27% +6 +1 1.16 48% 1.3 .65 19% .40 79% .32
Nov
10		 Miami (FL) F A+ F F F 20% 29% 51% F+ F D A- C- D A+ F A D F+ F D+ D- 52% 12% 37% D D- A- C+ B+ C- D C D+
0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24 1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27
Nov
16		 Western Carolina F F C F F 31% 29% 40% F+ F D C+ D+ B- D+ F+ D- B- D+ F F F 40% 8% 52% F F A+ D+ A- A+ A D A-
0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21 1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15
Nov
19		 Howard F F D- D+ D- 37% 17% 46% D+ D- F A+ F F+ A+ B A+ B+ A B+ A+ A 40% 20% 40% B- A B A+ A F B+ C- B+
0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40 0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 VMI A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 13% 70% D+ A+ D A+ B+ B- F D- F F D C- C- F 36% 15% 49% D+ F D- F+ F+ F B B B
1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11 1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17
Nov
25		 Wright St. F D- B- D- F+ 40% 18% 42% C+ D- C- A- C+ D- F F F F+ A+ F F F 39% 16% 45% D+ F D+ F+ F+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10 1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06
Nov
29		 Southern Utah F+ B- A F C- 36% 28% 36% D D+ C- C+ C F F+ A+ D C F A+ A+ C- 52% 20% 28% D- D+ A F C C- D- F F
0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15 1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27
Nov
30		 Robert Morris D F A+ F D- 24% 35% 41% F F F A+ D+ B+ C- C C- F C+ F F F 27% 25% 48% B+ F C F F F C- A+ A-
1.02 45% 56% 21% -5 -3 0.87 20% 1.3 .26 13% .38 75% .28 1.31 54% 58% 48% +14 -1 1.27 36% 1.5 .54 11% .26 43% .11
Dec
2		 Grand Canyon F D+ F F+ F 43% 17% 40% A- D- D+ F D- F F F F B+ F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% A B+ C F+ D A- F A- F+
0.68 50% 0% 26% -14 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08 1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31
Dec
6		 South Carolina F C F F F 29% 31% 40% D- F F+ D+ D- A B+ F C F+ F F F F 26% 20% 54% B F F F+ F A+ A D A
0.80 57% 27% 16% -15 -2 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 11% .32 61% .19 1.29 75% 56% 44% +16 -1 1.33 45% 1.2 .55 20% .24 83% .20
Dec
22		 Oklahoma F A+ B F F 16% 34% 50% F F D B- C- F F+ C+ D- F F A- F F 45% 12% 43% D- F D- F F D+ D- A- D+
0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17 1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25
Jan
1		 North Alabama D A+ A+ F B 44% 16% 40% C B F F F F A C- A- C+ C- C+ A+ B+ 45% 6% 49% F B- F+ C D- C C+ C- C
1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27 1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20
Jan
3		 Central Arkansas C B- A+ A- A- 24% 13% 62% D+ B+ C+ D- C- D- A+ D- A- F F A+ D- F 40% 8% 52% F F F F F C F F F
1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26 1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32
Jan
8		 Lipscomb B- A+ A+ B- A 34% 13% 53% B+ A+ F F F B+ A+ A- A+ C- D- F B+ F+ 50% 12% 38% D F+ A F B- B F B+ F
1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35 1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Austin Peay D- C+ D F F+ 30% 17% 54% C- F+ C A B C- F D- F D- B- F A C- 40% 31% 29% B+ C B+ F F F F A+ F
0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12 1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28
Jan
15		 West Georgia B+ B+ F A+ A+ 51% 11% 38% B- A+ D C D+ F A+ B A+ F C F A- D 41% 22% 37% F D- F D+ F F+ C+ F D
1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36 1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
17		 Queens C- B+ F+ B C+ 43% 20% 37% C C+ C F+ D C- A+ F A+ F+ F F A D 38% 9% 54% D D D- A+ B- F C- D D+
1.16 67% 30% 39% +5 0 1.12 34% 0.8 .29 16% .58 62% .36 1.25 81% 60% 27% +5 +1 1.14 35% 0.8 .29 10% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Lipscomb F C- D- C- D 36% 28% 36% C- D C- F F F D- A+ C B+ D+ A- B B- 41% 19% 41% B B- A- A+ A+ F+ D+ D+ D+
0.92 57% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21 0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21
Jan
23		 Austin Peay D B C- F+ D 32% 23% 45% D D D F D- C+ A- C+ A- C F C- A+ C 33% 31% 37% A C+ F F F B- C D+ C-
0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25 1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 North Florida C- D+ C B C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D+ F F A- B F+ C+ C D- C A+ B 44% 10% 46% F+ B- D F F+ D D- D+ F+
1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21 1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Alabama F B+ F F F 46% 22% 33% D+ F C- B+ B- D- B- A+ A- D F B+ B- F 40% 16% 44% C- F C+ D+ C C- D+ C+ D+
1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27 1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23
Feb
5		 Bellarmine D+ A+ A C C- 13% 18% 69% D- D+ D- A+ B+ D D+ C D+ F D- C- F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F F F F F A+ F A+
1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20 1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11
Feb
7		 Eastern Kentucky B F A+ A+ B- 39% 18% 43% C+ B- C B+ B- C- C A+ B+ F F F C+ F 35% 15% 51% F F D F F F F F F
1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29 1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 0 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 2.4 0.3 5.2 5th
6th 1.8 5.6 1.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.3 7.8 3.3 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 3.2 10.5 0.8 14.5 8th
9th 0.6 13.0 3.9 0.1 17.5 9th
10th 8.0 14.1 0.6 22.6 10th
11th 3.7 11.6 1.4 16.6 11th
12th 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.5 12th
Total 6.0 21.4 31.9 24.7 12.3 3.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.4
8-10 12.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-11 24.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.6
6-12 31.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 31.8
5-13 21.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.3
4-14 6.0% 6.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.3%