Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #266
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 #313
Pace 69.1 #188
Improvement -1.1 #250

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #198 D F B- C F
Defense #323 D C+ C- F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 21% #365 1.11 #236 -10.7 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.75 #185 +1.3 #107
Three Pointers 55% #3 0.94 #267 +5.1 #35
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #299 -4.3 #298
Freethrows 11.9 #357 73% #180 8.7 #351
Second Chance 31.1% #173 1.15 #68 0.36 #103
Turnovers 17.0% #199
Total Offense -1.2 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #105 1.29 #320 -4.2 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.86 #316 -1.0 #259
Three Pointers 39% #247 1.01 #183 +1.3 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #300 -4.0 #301
Freethrows 16.4 #144 71% #139 11.7 #226
Second Chance 31.3% #202 1.09 #244 0.34 #232
Turnovers 13.7% #329
Total Defense -4.8 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #347 0.5% #207
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #255 7.3% #306
Possession Length 18.5 #303 15.6 #16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #265 0.24 #345
Improvement -0.5 #216 -0.6 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.9% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 5.6% 7.7% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.4% 52.1% 26.9%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 3.9% 12.7%
First Four3.7% 4.1% 2.9%
First Round3.6% 4.3% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 147 Western Kentucky L 79-87 36%     0.0   0 - 1 -10.4 -0.8 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 12 7 @Vanderbilt L 62-92 1%     -18.8   0 - 2 -6.5 -2.8 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 18 139 @Kent St. L 78-93 17%     -15.6   0 - 3 -10.8 -5.6 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 22 159 Mercer L 83-95 40%     -11.0   0 - 4 -15.2 +6.3 -21.3
  Mon, Nov 24 198 @Northern Kentucky L 71-82 26%     -4.0   0 - 5 -10.4 -2.2 -8.0
  Sat, Nov 29 220 Wofford L 77-83 51%     -8.1   0 - 6 -12.2 -2.7 -9.4
  Wed, Dec 3 82 @Illinois St. L 78-89 8%     -9.1   0 - 7 -1.0 +8.7 -9.5
  Wed, Dec 10 317 @Eastern Illinois W 68-59 52%     5.0   1 - 7 +2.7 +3.1 +0.5
  Sat, Dec 13 101 Miami (OH) L 69-79 22%     -9.3   1 - 8 -7.9 -1.5 -6.8
  Wed, Dec 17 203 @Jacksonville St. W 62-59 27%     5.4   2 - 8 +3.4 -2.9 +6.7
  Sun, Dec 21 104 @Wichita St. L 57-88 11%     -21.8   2 - 9 -23.2 -10.1 -14.5
  Thu, Jan 1 227 @Queens L 89-91 31%     -0.8   2 - 10 0 - 1 -2.7 +10.3 -13.0
  Sat, Jan 3 308 @West Georgia L 76-88 48%     0.7   2 - 11 0 - 2 -17.4 +0.2 -17.7
  Thu, Jan 8 288 North Alabama W 75-71 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 254 Central Arkansas W 78-76 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 207 @Austin Peay L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 292 Bellarmine W 80-76 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 346 @North Florida W 86-83 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 313 @Jacksonville W 72-71 50%    
  Wed, Jan 28 207 Austin Peay L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 254 @Central Arkansas L 75-79 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 350 Stetson W 81-71 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 157 @Lipscomb L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 288 @North Alabama L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Feb 18 308 West Georgia W 80-75 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 292 @Bellarmine L 77-79 44%    
  Wed, Feb 25 227 Queens W 83-82 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 157 Lipscomb L 75-78 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.1 1.5 0.1 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.5 2.5 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.9 7.1 3.2 0.3 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.3 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.3 7.5 11.4 14.7 16.3 14.6 12.0 8.7 4.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 94.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 61.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 32.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 18.8% 18.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 25.1% 25.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 2.2% 18.3% 18.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.8
12-6 4.8% 14.0% 14.0% 15.7 0.2 0.4 4.1
11-7 8.7% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.8
10-8 12.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 1.0 11.1
9-9 14.6% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.8 13.8
8-10 16.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 15.8
7-11 14.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 14.3
6-12 11.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.2
5-13 7.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.5
4-14 4.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.4 94.9 0.0%