Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#160
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#237
Pace83.7#3
Improvement-0.5#217

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#113
First Shot-1.0#202
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#32
Layup/Dunks-7.2#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#8
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+1.0#81

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#234
First Shot-0.2#173
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#281
Layups/Dunks-1.6#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#63
Freethrows-2.0#297
Improvement-1.4#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 25.1% 18.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 77.6% 88.8% 72.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 90.7% 85.9%
Conference Champion 23.2% 27.7% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.7% 2.2% 2.9%
First Round19.0% 23.7% 16.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 62%     1 - 0 +3.4 +1.2 +2.0
  Nov 16, 2021 163   James Madison L 78-79 62%     1 - 1 -3.8 -5.9 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2021 298   Albany W 77-64 84%     2 - 1 +2.7 -1.4 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2021 347   Eastern Illinois W 82-43 94%     3 - 1 +22.2 -5.8 +23.8
  Nov 26, 2021 45   @ West Virginia L 77-80 13%     3 - 2 +9.9 +16.3 -6.7
  Nov 28, 2021 248   @ Radford L 75-88 58%     3 - 3 -14.6 -0.8 -13.0
  Dec 04, 2021 126   @ Western Kentucky L 79-84 31%    
  Dec 07, 2021 16   @ USC L 67-85 5%    
  Dec 11, 2021 114   Marshall W 90-89 50%    
  Dec 18, 2021 197   Northern Kentucky W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 236   @ Bryant W 85-84 57%    
  Jan 04, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 92-76 93%    
  Jan 08, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 11, 2022 308   @ North Alabama W 83-77 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 18, 2022 222   Lipscomb W 85-79 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 288   North Florida W 87-77 83%    
  Jan 27, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 84-85 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 268   @ Stetson W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 03, 2022 278   Kennesaw St. W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 171   Liberty W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 16, 2022 308   North Alabama W 86-74 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 89-79 80%    
  Feb 23, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 26, 2022 177   Bellarmine W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 5.5 7.2 5.7 2.7 0.9 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.0 7.2 2.9 0.4 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.5 6.5 2.1 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.6 5.9 1.8 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 5.4 2.0 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.4 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.3 6.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.5 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.5 9.7 12.5 14.9 15.6 14.9 10.2 6.1 2.7 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 2.7    2.5 0.2
14-2 93.3% 5.7    4.6 1.1 0.0
13-3 70.1% 7.2    4.0 2.7 0.5 0.0
12-4 36.9% 5.5    1.6 2.4 1.3 0.2
11-5 8.4% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.6 6.7 2.3 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 57.6% 57.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 2.7% 50.5% 50.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-2 6.1% 40.4% 40.4% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 3.6
13-3 10.2% 33.8% 33.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.3 6.8
12-4 14.9% 25.4% 25.4% 15.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 1.0 11.1
11-5 15.6% 23.0% 23.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 12.0
10-6 14.9% 13.9% 13.9% 15.5 0.1 0.8 1.2 12.8
9-7 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.9 0.2 1.3 10.9
8-8 9.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.1 0.9 8.7
7-9 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.1 0.4 6.0
6-10 3.5% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.2 3.3
5-11 1.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.5
4-12 0.6% 0.6
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 4.1 7.7 6.9 79.5 0.0%