Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #302
Pace 68.5 #184
Improvement +1.0 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #158 C- B- C- D D-
Defense #334 D- C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #365 1.12 #224 -9.0 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.73 #217 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 53% #9 1.02 #180 +6.4 #21
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #241 -2.1 #240
Freethrows 0.25 #330 72% #195 0.18 #321
Second Chance 32.5% #126 1.13 #55 0.37 #71
Turnovers 17.6% #222
Total Offense +0.1 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #175 1.29 #330 -2.7 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.95 #362 -2.5 #345
Three Pointers 40% #241 1.07 #252 -0.2 #196
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #337 -5.5 #337
Freethrows 0.33 #262 73% #235 0.24 #268
Second Chance 32.7% #270 1.03 #195 0.34 #248
Turnovers 15.3% #280
Total Defense -5.9 #334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #326 -0.2% #151
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #200 11.0% #350
Possession Length 18.7 #317 16.1 #22
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.24 #347
Improvement +1.6 #95 -0.6 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 4.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 29.9% 35.9% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.5% 9.9%
First Four4.1% 4.4% 3.0%
First Round2.7% 3.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 168 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 41% +0  0 - 1 -12 +1 A- F+ C- -12 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 12 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  0 - 2 -8 -3 D- C C+ -4 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 139 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 17% -16  0 - 3 -11 -4 D- B- F -5 D- C C
 Sat, Nov 22 152 Mercer L 83 - 95 38% -11  0 - 4 -15 +5 D B B -20 F D- B
 Mon, Nov 24 201 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 27% -4  0 - 5 -11 -3 D- C+ C -8 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 199 Wofford L 77 - 83 48% -8  0 - 6 -11 -3 F A+ B- -9 C C F
 Wed, Dec 3 89 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 9% -9  0 - 7 -2 +10 B- A- C- -12 F F C
 Wed, Dec 10 323 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 54% +5  1 - 7 +2 +3 D+ C B- -0 C+ C C
 Sat, Dec 13 90 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 20% -9  1 - 8 -7 -2 D B- D -5 C F D
 Wed, Dec 17 190 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 25% +5  2 - 8 +4 -2 D- A- F +7 B+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 98 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 10% -22  2 - 9 -23 -9 F+ D B+ -15 D- F F+
 Thu, Jan 1 211 @Queens L 89 - 91 28% -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -2 +12 B- C A+ -13 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 330 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 57% +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -20 -0 D B B -20 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 331 North Alabama W 88 - 80 78% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -6 +13 C- A+ A+ -19 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 50% +1  4 - 11 2 - 2 -2 +3 B C C+ -4 F+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 170 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 22% -1  4 - 12 2 - 3 +0 +10 A+ D+ F -10 D+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 17 293 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 68% +11  5 - 12 3 - 3 +9 +14 C+ A+ D- -2 A- C- D
 Thu, Jan 22 348 @North Florida L 85 - 87 62% -2  5 - 13 3 - 4 -11 +1 C- B D- -12 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 46% +3  5 - 14 3 - 5 -10 +3 D+ A+ F -13 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 28 170 Austin Peay L 82 - 90 42% -10  5 - 15 3 - 6 -12 +5 F C+ A+ -16 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 31 207 @Central Arkansas L 81 - 90 28% -8  5 - 16 3 - 7 -9 +2 B- F D+ -10 D- C F
 Thu, Feb 5 224 Florida Gulf Coast W 76 - 74 53% -6  6 - 16 4 - 7 -5 -1 D A- C- -4 D A B+
 Sat, Feb 7 335 Stetson W 81 - 73 78%
 Wed, Feb 11 186 @Lipscomb L 76 - 83 24%
 Sun, Feb 15 331 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 330 West Georgia W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Bellarmine L 80 - 81 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 211 Queens W 84 - 83 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 Lipscomb L 79 - 80 45%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6 +0 C- B- C- -6 D- C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 3rd
4th 0.5 2.2 0.8 3.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 10.3 5.5 0.3 19.8 5th
6th 2.5 14.7 8.4 0.8 26.4 6th
7th 0.3 9.3 8.8 0.8 19.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 10.2 1.5 14.5 8th
9th 0.2 5.6 2.5 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 3.5 0.2 5.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 0.5 2.1 11th
12th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.5 3.5 12.7 24.7 28.7 20.0 8.5 1.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.4% 16.3% 16.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.2
10-8 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.7 7.9
9-9 20.0% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.5 18.5
8-10 28.7% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.3 27.4
7-11 24.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 24.2
6-12 12.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.4
5-13 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.5
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 16.0 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.7 34.8 65.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.4%