Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#156
Pace76.1#29
Improvement+1.9#12

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#180
First Shot-3.4#294
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#12
Layup/Dunks-3.9#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
Freethrows-3.1#356
Improvement+1.6#12

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#210
First Shot-0.1#178
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#270
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#227
Freethrows+1.2#88
Improvement+0.4#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 3.9% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 93.1% 97.0% 81.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 99.7% 95.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.6% 3.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 49 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 163   Western Kentucky L 60-66 55%     0 - 1 -8.4 -15.7 +7.3
  Nov 13, 2022 56   @ Cincinnati L 69-87 11%     0 - 2 -6.0 -3.5 -1.0
  Nov 18, 2022 231   @ Georgia St. W 62-61 49%     1 - 2 +0.1 -4.2 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2022 188   UNC Asheville W 77-75 50%     2 - 2 +0.9 +1.2 -0.4
  Nov 20, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce L 61-75 77%     2 - 3 -22.9 -15.7 -7.2
  Dec 02, 2022 96   @ James Madison L 80-97 20%     2 - 4 -9.3 +6.3 -14.4
  Dec 07, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 49-84 3%     2 - 5 -13.6 -12.9 +1.6
  Dec 14, 2022 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 61-64 43%     2 - 6 -2.3 -1.4 -1.3
  Dec 17, 2022 178   Radford W 67-65 57%     3 - 6 -1.0 -5.9 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 68-64 49%     4 - 6 +3.0 -2.5 +5.3
  Dec 31, 2022 221   Queens W 88-83 66%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -0.5 +1.7 -2.5
  Jan 02, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-79 32%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -0.4 -4.2 +4.2
  Jan 05, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 77-75 75%     6 - 7 2 - 1 -6.2 -5.3 -1.0
  Jan 08, 2023 70   Liberty W 62-59 26%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +8.4 -0.7 +9.4
  Jan 12, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 97-76 56%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +18.3 +19.2 -1.6
  Jan 14, 2023 199   Stetson W 85-70 61%     9 - 7 5 - 1 +10.8 +7.9 +3.3
  Jan 19, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb L 62-75 40%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -11.5 -11.8 +0.7
  Jan 21, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 74-59 66%     10 - 8 6 - 2 +9.5 +1.0 +8.9
  Jan 26, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine L 71-72 53%     10 - 9 6 - 3 -3.1 +8.8 -12.0
  Jan 28, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 73-63 73%     11 - 9 7 - 3 +2.5 +5.6 -1.7
  Feb 02, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 221   @ Queens L 80-81 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 63-75 12%    
  Feb 16, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 86-74 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 291   North Alabama W 82-74 79%    
  Feb 22, 2023 282   @ North Florida W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 24, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 66-69 40%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 7.2 3.8 0.2 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 11.4 20.0 9.5 1.0 42.7 3rd
4th 0.2 5.8 12.7 3.7 0.2 22.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 6.8 1.9 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 2.1 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.6 15.7 26.5 27.5 17.1 5.7 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 69.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
14-4 15.3% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 8.9% 8.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 5.7% 6.9% 6.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.3
13-5 17.1% 4.8% 4.8% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 16.3
12-6 27.5% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 26.4
11-7 26.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 25.7
10-8 15.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.1 0.3 15.3
9-9 5.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.6
8-10 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.4 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 8.9% 12.5 5.1 3.2 0.6
Lose Out 0.1%