Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#171
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#141
Pace66.1#242
Improvement-3.0#362

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#158
First Shot+0.3#172
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#158
Layup/Dunks-1.6#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#13
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-1.8#355

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#191
First Shot+0.0#175
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#239
Layups/Dunks-0.8#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#206
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement-1.2#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 5.9% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 79.2% 48.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round5.8% 5.9% 4.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 20 - 01 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 44   @ USC W 74-61 11%     1 - 0 +26.2 +6.8 +19.2
  Nov 09, 2022 216   @ San Diego L 73-79 48%     1 - 1 -5.5 -6.3 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 50-81 3%     1 - 2 -9.6 -4.7 -7.2
  Nov 21, 2022 210   Northern Kentucky W 82-61 58%     2 - 2 +19.0 +12.5 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2022 202   Drexel W 67-59 56%     3 - 2 +6.4 +0.0 +7.0
  Nov 23, 2022 259   UMKC W 73-59 69%     4 - 2 +8.9 +11.6 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2022 227   @ Georgia Southern W 70-53 51%     5 - 2 +16.7 +7.2 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2022 226   Florida International W 74-65 71%     6 - 2 +3.2 -1.4 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2022 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 53-85 12%     6 - 3 -19.4 -6.5 -17.6
  Dec 10, 2022 228   Mercer W 67-62 72%     7 - 3 -0.9 -6.0 +5.3
  Dec 16, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure W 71-58 35%     8 - 3 +16.9 +9.6 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2022 281   Canisius W 84-81 81%     9 - 3 -6.1 +11.6 -17.6
  Dec 31, 2022 197   Jacksonville W 72-65 66%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +2.9 +9.7 -5.7
  Jan 02, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 84-79 OT 78%     11 - 3 2 - 0 -3.2 -7.9 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay L 59-61 70%     11 - 4 2 - 1 -7.5 -11.3 +3.6
  Jan 07, 2023 282   North Florida W 82-57 81%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +15.7 -2.5 +17.3
  Jan 12, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 76-97 44%     12 - 5 3 - 2 -19.5 +1.1 -19.8
  Jan 14, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine L 41-61 58%     12 - 6 3 - 3 -22.1 -27.8 +2.8
  Jan 19, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 55-51 77%     13 - 6 4 - 3 -3.8 -16.5 +13.1
  Jan 21, 2023 150   Kennesaw St. L 63-65 57%     13 - 7 4 - 4 -3.9 +1.5 -5.7
  Jan 26, 2023 221   @ Queens L 82-84 50%     13 - 8 4 - 5 -2.0 +6.1 -8.2
  Jan 28, 2023 70   @ Liberty L 57-74 15%     13 - 9 4 - 6 -6.1 -1.3 -7.2
  Feb 02, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 04, 2023 291   North Alabama W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 09, 2023 282   @ North Florida W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville L 63-64 44%    
  Feb 15, 2023 199   @ Stetson L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 18, 2023 199   Stetson W 72-68 66%    
  Feb 22, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 24, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 71-60 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.6 3.3 9.5 3rd
4th 0.1 5.9 8.5 0.8 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 13.4 2.9 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 10.0 7.2 0.1 18.0 6th
7th 0.1 3.9 10.2 0.9 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.8 3.2 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.9 0.3 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 6.0 15.9 26.6 28.0 17.3 4.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 4.5% 9.5% 9.5% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.1
11-7 17.3% 7.9% 7.9% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 15.9
10-8 28.0% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 26.2
9-9 26.6% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 25.3
8-10 15.9% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.3
7-11 6.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9
6-12 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.5 0.2 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 9.5% 13.0 1.8 5.6 2.1 0.0