Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #203
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 #270
Pace 70.2 #150
Improvement -2.5 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 B- C C D D-
Defense #281 D+ C C F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.23 #98 -0.7 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #64 0.86 #53 +3.8 #32
Three Pointers 38% #244 1.06 #129 -0.7 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #112 +2.4 #114
Freethrows 15.0 #295 72% #206 10.8 #289
Second Chance 30.1% #200 1.09 #129 0.33 #151
Turnovers 16.2% #154
Total Offense +0.6 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #160 1.18 #216 -1.0 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.73 #133 +2.2 #35
Three Pointers 46% #60 1.09 #284 -4.0 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.7 #267
Freethrows 21.8 #342 76% #330 16.7 #354
Second Chance 30.6% #176 1.03 #163 0.32 #171
Turnovers 16.3% #191
Total Defense -3.5 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #311 1.5% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.9% #78 3.8% #255
Possession Length 17.0 #144 17.1 #150
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #71 0.18 #198
Improvement -3.0 #334 +0.5 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.1% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 41.1% 59.1% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 88.0% 67.9%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four3.9% 3.0% 4.4%
First Round11.3% 14.1% 9.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 413 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Illinois L 70 - 113 2% -31  0 - 1 -20 +2 C F A+ -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 238 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 66% -3  0 - 2 -8 +12 C A+ C+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 255 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 69% +13  1 - 2 +10 +14 C+ A+ A -4 C B C
 Wed, Nov 19 243 @Samford W 77 - 62 44% +9  2 - 2 +14 +3 B A+ F +11 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 311 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 80% +0  3 - 2 -7 +10 A+ A C- -17 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 244 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 67% -4  4 - 2 +8 -9 D- D- F +15 A+ A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 148 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 47% -0  4 - 3 -4 +7 B+ C- B- -10 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 180 @Florida International L 83 - 89 34% -6  4 - 4 -5 +4 C- C- B- -9 C- D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 95 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 30% +0  4 - 5 -2 +5 B- B F -7 A+ B C
 Sun, Dec 14 50 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 7% -5  4 - 6 -2 -4 C- D B+ +1 A+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 47 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  4 - 7 -8 +11 A+ D F -18 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 1 256 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 47% +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -4 +17 A+ C C+ -22 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 319 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 65% +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +10 -4 B F F +15 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 187 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 57% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -16 -1 C C D -15 D F C
 Sat, Jan 10 168 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 54% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +1 B D+ B+ -12 F D+ A
 Thu, Jan 15 184 Queens L 74 - 85 57% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -16 -7 F C A+ -9 B C F
 Sat, Jan 17 327 West Georgia W 90 - 72 83% +6  6 - 11 2 - 4 +5 +9 B+ A+ F -4 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 187 @Austin Peay L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Jan 24 168 @Lipscomb L 76 - 81 32%
 Thu, Jan 29 319 North Alabama W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 282 @Jacksonville W 72 - 71 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 249 @Eastern Kentucky L 79 - 80 46%
 Sat, Feb 7 306 @Bellarmine W 81 - 78 59%
 Wed, Feb 11 349 North Florida W 93 - 80 89%
 Sat, Feb 14 340 Stetson W 83 - 72 85%
 Thu, Feb 19 282 Jacksonville W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 Central Arkansas W 78 - 73 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 349 @North Florida W 90 - 83 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @Stetson W 80 - 75 68%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 +1 B- C C -3 D+ C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 1st
2nd 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.0 1.4 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 7.5 10.8 3.3 0.2 23.0 4th
5th 0.9 7.0 9.9 3.3 0.3 21.3 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 8.6 3.1 0.2 16.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.3 2.6 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.2 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.9 7.6 13.7 19.7 21.4 19.0 10.4 3.6 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 46.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 10.6% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.7% 35.4% 35.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
13-5 3.6% 25.2% 25.2% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.7
12-6 10.4% 21.2% 21.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 8.2
11-7 19.0% 18.0% 18.0% 15.5 0.0 1.5 1.9 15.6
10-8 21.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.7 0.8 2.1 18.5
9-9 19.7% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.1 1.8 17.8
8-10 13.7% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.7 13.0
7-11 7.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.5 7.1
6-12 2.9% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 2.7
5-13 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 15.5 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.3 8.7 52.2 39.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%