Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#226
Expected Predictive Rating-16.4#349
Pace63.8#314
Improvement-2.6#345

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#149
First Shot-2.3#242
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#26
Layup/Dunks-1.1#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#159
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-1.6#316

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#305
First Shot-2.3#252
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#310
Layups/Dunks+2.3#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#300
Freethrows-0.7#243
Improvement-1.1#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 11.0% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 17.5% 28.1% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.4% 72.0% 61.5%
Conference Champion 10.8% 14.3% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.5% 5.0%
First Four4.6% 5.2% 4.2%
First Round6.3% 8.9% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 67   @ Indiana L 63-69 10%     0 - 1 +5.0 +1.6 +2.8
  Nov 13, 2023 53   @ Pittsburgh L 74-86 8%     0 - 2 +0.7 +8.3 -7.8
  Nov 17, 2023 100   Missouri St. L 61-70 23%     0 - 3 -4.5 +0.6 -6.2
  Nov 18, 2023 324   Hampton L 85-92 74%     0 - 4 -16.7 +2.8 -19.1
  Nov 20, 2023 239   Norfolk St. L 66-69 54%     0 - 5 -7.1 +0.8 -8.4
  Nov 25, 2023 136   UNC Wilmington L 55-71 42%     0 - 6 -17.2 -11.8 -7.2
  Nov 29, 2023 219   @ Florida International L 72-75 37%    
  Dec 03, 2023 39   @ Cincinnati L 64-82 5%    
  Dec 09, 2023 125   @ Minnesota L 65-74 20%    
  Dec 16, 2023 257   @ Mercer L 66-67 47%    
  Dec 19, 2023 319   Georgia Southern W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 30, 2023 18   Florida Atlantic L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 04, 2024 250   Jacksonville W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 298   North Florida W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 10, 2024 272   @ Queens L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 12, 2024 225   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-81 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 165   Stetson L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 25, 2024 166   Lipscomb L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 27, 2024 262   Austin Peay W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 01, 2024 344   @ Central Arkansas W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 03, 2024 244   @ North Alabama L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 07, 2024 218   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 211   Bellarmine W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 165   @ Stetson L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 22, 2024 225   Kennesaw St. W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 24, 2024 272   Queens W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 28, 2024 298   @ North Florida W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 01, 2024 250   @ Jacksonville L 69-70 46%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 2.9 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 10.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.2 4.0 1.0 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.2 5.3 1.0 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.6 2.0 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.8 3.2 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.1 0.6 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.0 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 3.7 6.1 9.4 12.5 13.4 14.4 12.2 10.8 7.1 4.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 93.2% 1.8    1.6 0.3 0.0
13-3 80.5% 3.8    2.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 40.5% 2.9    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1
11-5 12.0% 1.3    0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.9 3.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 80.7% 80.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.7% 37.3% 37.3% 14.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.0% 31.9% 31.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.3
13-3 4.8% 27.3% 27.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 3.5
12-4 7.1% 17.9% 17.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 5.8
11-5 10.8% 13.3% 13.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 9.4
10-6 12.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.1 0.9 11.2
9-7 14.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.0 13.4
8-8 13.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 12.9
7-9 12.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.3 12.1
6-10 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 9.2
5-11 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-12 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-13 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 5.8 92.0 0.0%