Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#192
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#88
Pace75.9#43
Improvement-0.6#228

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#143
First Shot+2.3#115
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#263
Layup/Dunks-2.8#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#15
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement-0.9#274

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#249
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#94
Layups/Dunks-4.4#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#229
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+0.4#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 15.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 82.4% 90.6% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 84.6% 75.7%
Conference Champion 15.6% 19.2% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.1%
First Round12.6% 14.8% 10.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 415 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 77-89 7%     0 - 1 +2.9 +10.7 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2021 16   USC L 61-78 11%     0 - 2 -5.0 -3.1 -2.4
  Nov 23, 2021 78   Rhode Island W 67-66 31%     1 - 2 +4.9 +2.8 +2.2
  Nov 26, 2021 296   Western Michigan W 77-67 80%     2 - 2 -0.3 -2.2 +2.0
  Nov 27, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 90-71 86%     3 - 2 +5.9 +2.5 +1.6
  Nov 28, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-78 77%     4 - 2 -2.2 +2.4 -4.8
  Dec 01, 2021 226   @ Florida International L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 04, 2021 230   Dartmouth W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 07, 2021 305   @ Florida A&M W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 11, 2021 290   @ Robert Morris W 80-77 60%    
  Dec 19, 2021 196   Mercer W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 284   @ Canisius W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 04, 2022 288   North Florida W 82-74 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 11, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 171   Liberty W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 18, 2022 268   @ Stetson W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 149   @ Jacksonville St. L 70-76 31%    
  Jan 27, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky W 85-84 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 177   Bellarmine W 75-72 58%    
  Feb 03, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 09, 2022 308   North Alabama W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 268   Stetson W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 16, 2022 278   Kennesaw St. W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 19, 2022 288   @ North Florida W 79-77 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 26, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 73-66 74%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 3.9 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.3 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 5.2 6.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.7 1.8 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.3 4.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 6.4 2.4 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 5.0 2.3 0.2 9.1 6th
7th 0.7 3.1 3.3 0.4 7.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.1 3.0 0.5 5.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 2.3 0.8 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.9 8.7 12.0 14.1 14.6 13.8 12.1 7.3 3.5 1.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 99.0% 1.9    1.7 0.2
14-2 92.6% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
13-3 65.7% 4.8    2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 32.5% 3.9    1.2 1.6 1.0 0.1
11-5 9.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 8.2 5.1 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 42.6% 42.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.9% 40.5% 40.5% 13.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2
14-2 3.5% 30.1% 30.1% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.4
13-3 7.3% 29.0% 29.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 5.2
12-4 12.1% 21.3% 21.3% 14.6 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.3 9.5
11-5 13.8% 16.3% 16.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 11.6
10-6 14.6% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.1 1.1 0.6 12.8
9-7 14.1% 8.0% 8.0% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 13.0
8-8 12.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 11.3
7-9 8.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 8.2
6-10 5.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 5.8
5-11 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-12 1.7% 1.7
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 5.4 3.0 86.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%