Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
52 Florida Atlantic 87.2%   6   19 - 1 11 - 0 26 - 3 18 - 2 +9.9      +5.5 46 +4.3 63 69.3 141 +18.4 6 +18.3 1
71 UAB 23.5%   14 - 7 6 - 5 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.8      +4.7 60 +3.1 91 75.7 30 +4.4 110 +2.3 5
80 North Texas 19.9%   16 - 5 9 - 3 21 - 8 14 - 6 +6.6      +1.0 146 +5.6 38 53.1 363 +8.7 60 +8.5 2
110 Charlotte 6.9%   13 - 8 4 - 6 19 - 12 10 - 10 +3.6      +2.3 109 +1.2 134 57.6 359 +2.6 130 -0.7 9
121 Middle Tennessee 5.1%   11 - 9 5 - 5 16 - 13 10 - 9 +2.7      0.0 175 +2.7 98 67.7 193 +3.2 123 +2.8 4
137 Louisiana Tech 3.8%   9 - 10 5 - 6 13 - 15 9 - 11 +1.8      +1.2 139 +0.6 153 68.0 186 +0.3 161 +0.3 7
163 Western Kentucky 2.2%   9 - 11 3 - 8 13 - 16 7 - 13 +0.3      +0.6 152 -0.4 188 67.9 189 -0.7 183 -3.7 10
170 Rice 2.1%   12 - 6 6 - 3 16 - 12 10 - 9 0.0      +2.5 104 -2.5 249 72.8 68 +4.2 113 +5.3 3
175 UTEP 2.0%   9 - 10 4 - 6 13 - 16 8 - 12 -0.1      -5.6 328 +5.5 40 66.8 223 -0.4 175 -0.5 8
226 Florida International 0.6%   9 - 11 5 - 6 12 - 17 8 - 12 -3.0      -1.6 228 -1.4 223 73.8 46 -1.7 205 +2.1 6
312 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   5 - 16 1 - 11 6 - 23 2 - 18 -8.2      -2.5 255 -5.7 327 68.5 171 -9.2 316 -11.7 11






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Florida Atlantic 1.0 98.4 1.5 0.1 0.0
UAB 3.1 0.5 24.6 52.5 13.2 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Texas 2.2 5.2 78.8 12.5 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 5.6 0.0 2.8 11.2 20.2 18.6 16.3 12.9 9.3 5.8 2.8 0.0
Middle Tennessee 5.4 0.0 2.1 11.5 22.7 21.6 16.8 12.1 7.6 4.1 1.5
Louisiana Tech 6.1 0.0 0.9 6.4 17.2 16.7 17.1 16.4 12.5 8.7 4.0
Western Kentucky 8.4 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.5 7.1 11.2 15.8 22.8 35.1 0.3
Rice 5.0 0.1 3.5 15.1 26.0 20.1 15.1 10.3 5.9 3.0 0.9
UTEP 7.3 0.0 0.4 3.0 8.0 10.6 12.5 15.4 17.6 16.6 15.8 0.1
Florida International 7.3 0.1 2.0 7.2 10.0 13.0 16.6 19.5 21.1 10.5 0.0
Texas San Antonio 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Florida Atlantic 18 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 11.6 23.1 30.1 22.4 7.7
UAB 12 - 8 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.9 17.3 26.2 25.9 15.6 4.2
North Texas 14 - 6 0.0 0.6 3.0 8.9 19.0 25.9 24.7 14.0 3.9
Charlotte 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.7 14.6 21.6 23.5 18.2 9.4 2.9 0.5
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 0.0 0.8 4.3 12.6 22.9 26.4 20.2 9.8 2.7 0.4
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 0.5 2.9 9.5 19.4 24.6 22.4 13.9 5.5 1.2 0.1
Western Kentucky 7 - 13 0.3 2.9 10.2 20.2 25.6 21.7 12.8 5.1 1.2 0.1
Rice 10 - 10 0.3 2.9 10.3 20.1 25.5 21.8 12.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
UTEP 8 - 12 0.7 3.7 10.6 19.1 23.0 20.6 13.5 6.5 2.0 0.4 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 1.5 9.2 21.2 27.2 22.6 12.4 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2 - 18 26.1 36.9 24.5 9.4 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Atlantic 98.4% 94.4 3.8 0.1 0.0
UAB 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Texas 5.2% 1.5 3.6 0.1 0.0
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky
Rice 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP 0.0% 0.0
Florida International
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Atlantic 87.2% 38.1% 49.1% 6   0.0 0.4 2.1 6.3 10.3 15.7 13.0 10.5 12.3 10.3 6.1 0.3 12.8 79.3%
UAB 23.5% 22.7% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.2 10.8 5.7 1.1 0.1 76.5 1.0%
North Texas 19.9% 16.4% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 9.0 7.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 80.1 4.2%
Charlotte 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 93.1 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 94.9 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 96.2 0.0%
Western Kentucky 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 97.8 0.0%
Rice 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.9 0.0%
UTEP 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 98.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Florida Atlantic 87.2% 5.0% 84.3% 41.6% 13.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
UAB 23.5% 0.7% 23.2% 6.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 19.9% 2.8% 18.3% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 6.9% 0.1% 6.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.1% 0.1% 5.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 1.0% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 2.2% 1.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 2.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 48.2 50.2 1.7 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.5 0.3 52.9 45.9 0.8
2nd Round 50.5% 0.6 49.5 45.6 4.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.9% 0.2 83.1 16.6 0.3
Elite Eight 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1 0.0
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1