Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Sam Houston St. 27.5%   13   18 - 8 13 - 5 +3.9      +3.4 91 +0.5 156 73.5 51 +4.8 100 +3.8 2
113 Liberty 25.8%   21 - 5 16 - 2 +3.4      +5.3 67 -1.9 230 62.5 333 +8.5 69 +10.6 1
129 Western Kentucky 17.3%   16 - 11 11 - 7 +2.0      -0.3 169 +2.3 111 74.0 44 +1.7 133 +1.4 3
154 Kennesaw St. 9.4%   15 - 11 10 - 8 +0.1      +1.1 138 -1.0 206 76.4 21 +0.1 154 +0.2 4
162 Middle Tennessee 5.6%   12 - 14 9 - 9 -0.3      +0.1 161 -0.5 186 65.2 267 -0.5 163 -1.7 7
174 New Mexico St. 3.5%   10 - 15 6 - 12 -1.0      +0.8 143 -1.8 226 66.5 237 -3.1 219 -5.0 11
194 Jacksonville St. 3.6%   11 - 15 9 - 9 -2.0      -1.6 209 -0.4 183 63.3 323 -3.9 234 -1.1 5
197 Florida International 2.3%   11 - 15 7 - 11 -2.1      -1.5 205 -0.6 190 77.5 14 -3.0 217 -3.4 8
203 Missouri St. 2.1%   10 - 16 7 - 11 -2.4      -1.0 191 -1.3 216 64.6 282 -4.3 238 -3.9 9
222 Louisiana Tech 1.9%   13 - 13 9 - 9 -3.6      -5.6 314 +2.0 117 62.5 331 -2.3 199 -1.4 6
260 UTEP 0.4%   7 - 19 6 - 12 -5.5      -4.5 291 -1.0 207 63.9 306 -6.2 261 -4.8 10
272 Delaware 0.4%   9 - 19 5 - 13 -6.2      -2.2 235 -4.0 289 59.9 360 -6.8 274 -6.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 26 154 Kennesaw St. 74 113 Liberty 65   
Thu, Feb 26 222 Louisiana Tech 72 203 Missouri St. 70   
Thu, Feb 26 272 Delaware 70 194 Jacksonville St. 80   
Thu, Feb 26 162 Middle Tennessee 77 260 UTEP 67   
Thu, Feb 26 197 Florida International 67 108 Sam Houston St. 100   
Thu, Feb 26 174 New Mexico St. 70 129 Western Kentucky 93   
Sat, Feb 28 194 Jacksonville St. 78 113 Liberty 81   
Sat, Feb 28 162 Middle Tennessee 86 174 New Mexico St. 85   
Sat, Feb 28 197 Florida International 84 222 Louisiana Tech 76   
Sat, Feb 28 203 Missouri St. 81 108 Sam Houston St. 86   
Sat, Feb 28 260 UTEP 65 129 Western Kentucky 97   
Sat, Feb 28 272 Delaware 82 154 Kennesaw St. 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 194 Jacksonville St. 69 174 New Mexico St. 73 65%   
Thu, Mar 5 197 Florida International 77 162 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 203 Missouri St. 73 129 Western Kentucky 74 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 113 Liberty 73 222 Louisiana Tech 63 83%   
Thu, Mar 5 154 Kennesaw St. 76 260 UTEP 73 60%   
Thu, Mar 5 272 Delaware 70 108 Sam Houston St. 77 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Sam Houston St. 2.0 100.0
Liberty 1.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 3.0 4.6 89.7 5.7
Kennesaw St. 3.8 29.4 61.2 7.9 1.4 0.1
Middle Tennessee 5.2 3.2 22.7 38.6 23.1 12.5
New Mexico St. 9.4 24.1 28.2 31.3 14.9 1.5
Jacksonville St. 5.3 3.0 20.0 38.2 25.2 13.6
Florida International 8.1 1.9 8.4 11.1 45.0 23.6 8.6 1.4
Missouri St. 8.1 2.1 7.8 10.8 44.6 24.7 8.5 1.6
Louisiana Tech 5.6 1.3 13.2 32.7 30.8 21.9
UTEP 9.9 13.4 19.5 29.8 33.7 3.6
Delaware 11.5 0.5 2.9 8.9 21.5 66.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 19 - 9 15.8 53.3 30.9
Liberty 17 - 3 22 - 6 7.6 43.1 49.3
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 17 - 12 21.5 48.6 29.8
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 23.8 49.7 26.5
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 13 - 15 29.9 48.6 21.4
New Mexico St. 7 - 13 11 - 16 15.9 45.9 38.2
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 12 - 16 31.8 49.4 18.8
Florida International 8 - 12 12 - 16 25.0 48.9 26.1
Missouri St. 8 - 12 11 - 17 25.7 49.4 24.9
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 14 - 14 42.6 48.4 8.9
UTEP 7 - 13 8 - 20 31.9 48.2 19.9
Delaware 6 - 14 10 - 20 37.0 49.3 13.8

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Sam Houston St.
Liberty 100.0% 100.0
Western Kentucky
Kennesaw St.
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico St.
Jacksonville St.
Florida International
Missouri St.
Louisiana Tech
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 27.5% 27.5% 0.0% 13   0.2 10.2 14.7 2.3 0.0 72.5 0.0%
Liberty 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 0.8 14.8 9.9 0.3 74.2 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 9.6 5.6 0.5 82.7 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 5.0 1.4 0.0 90.6 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.1 0.6 94.4 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 2.0 96.5 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 96.4 0.0%
Florida International 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 97.7 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3 1.8 97.9 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 98.1 0.0%
UTEP 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.7
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Sam Houston St. 27.5% 0.0% 27.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 25.8% 0.0% 25.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.3% 0.0% 17.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.6% 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.5% 1.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 1.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.3% 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%