Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
94 Louisiana Tech 40.9%   13   17 - 8 10 - 3 19 - 9 12 - 4 +6.0      +1.5 133 +4.5 53 63.7 312 +5.1 108 +5.5 2
121 Liberty 19.8%   13 - 11 5 - 7 16 - 12 8 - 8 +3.1      +2.2 116 +0.9 145 63.1 326 +1.9 137 -2.3 6
134 Western Kentucky 14.3%   16 - 8 8 - 5 17 - 10 9 - 7 +2.0      -0.9 203 +2.9 95 84.7 2 +2.3 135 +1.0 3
147 Sam Houston St. 11.0%   15 - 11 10 - 3 17 - 12 12 - 4 +1.1      -1.0 206 +2.0 114 68.3 189 +2.4 134 +6.2 1
177 Jacksonville St. 6.0%   11 - 14 6 - 7 13 - 15 8 - 8 -0.9      -2.3 238 +1.4 134 63.3 322 -2.9 222 -1.1 4
193 UTEP 4.1%   10 - 15 4 - 9 11 - 17 5 - 11 -2.0      -5.2 306 +3.2 88 73.4 54 -3.4 230 -5.7 9
265 Middle Tennessee 1.4%   10 - 16 6 - 7 11 - 18 7 - 9 -5.1      -5.1 304 0.0 166 63.4 318 -3.8 242 -2.2 5
268 New Mexico St. 1.3%   7 - 17 5 - 8 8 - 19 6 - 10 -5.3      -4.1 288 -1.1 209 66.4 246 -4.0 245 -3.0 7
273 Florida International 1.2%   8 - 19 4 - 9 9 - 21 5 - 11 -5.4      -2.7 250 -2.8 254 74.5 47 -7.0 290 -5.1 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Louisiana Tech 1.2 80.5 19.1 0.4
Liberty 4.1 26.2 46.2 19.1 5.2 2.6 0.6 0.1
Western Kentucky 3.0 0.6 9.4 82.8 6.2 1.1
Sam Houston St. 1.6 44.6 54.8 0.6
Jacksonville St. 4.4 11.7 45.3 35.3 4.9 2.5 0.3
UTEP 7.5 2.5 4.0 15.9 20.5 37.5 19.6
Middle Tennessee 5.6 1.3 12.3 20.9 51.9 13.4 0.4
New Mexico St. 6.5 0.3 5.4 13.6 30.2 29.4 17.5 3.6
Florida International 7.9 0.3 2.1 12.7 16.3 26.9 41.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Louisiana Tech 12 - 4 1.3 14.3 45.8 38.6
Liberty 8 - 8 0.5 5.3 21.5 41.5 31.2
Western Kentucky 9 - 7 12.9 38.7 36.6 11.8
Sam Houston St. 12 - 4 5.2 31.3 50.3 13.1
Jacksonville St. 8 - 8 6.6 30.8 45.9 16.7
UTEP 5 - 11 14.6 47.2 31.7 6.5
Middle Tennessee 7 - 9 51.2 38.6 9.4 0.8
New Mexico St. 6 - 10 25.8 50.8 21.1 2.3
Florida International 5 - 11 30.9 43.0 21.9 4.3




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Louisiana Tech 80.5% 55.4 24.6 0.5
Liberty
Western Kentucky 0.6% 0.1 0.5
Sam Houston St. 44.6% 19.5 24.6 0.5
Jacksonville St.
UTEP
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico St.
Florida International


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Louisiana Tech 40.9% 40.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 2.1 18.1 18.2 2.5 0.0 59.1 0.0%
Liberty 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 7.8 7.0 2.5 0.2 80.2 0.0%
Western Kentucky 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 6.8 5.5 0.9 0.0 85.7 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.7 5.2 3.7 0.3 89.1 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 4.7 94.0 0.0%
UTEP 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.2 4.0 95.9 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
New Mexico St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Florida International 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Louisiana Tech 40.9% 0.0% 40.9% 8.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 19.8% 0.1% 19.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 4.1% 3.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.0% 1.0 4.0 96.0
2nd Round 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.3
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0