Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
50 UAB 41.4%   12   4 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 4 +8.8      +3.9 74 +4.8 56 69.8 167 +4.1 122 0.0 1
109 North Texas 14.3%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +4.2      +0.2 167 +3.9 68 57.6 355 +2.2 145 0.0 1
112 Louisiana Tech 13.7%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 11 11 - 7 +3.9      +4.0 72 0.0 174 72.0 105 +3.1 132 0.0 1
115 Marshall 11.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +3.4      +3.5 85 -0.1 177 85.4 2 +0.2 172 0.0 1
123 Western Kentucky 8.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +2.8      +1.1 131 +1.7 109 72.2 98 -3.7 231 0.0 1
161 UTEP 5.6%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 +0.5      -2.5 252 +3.0 88 67.8 224 0.0 174 0.0 1
169 Rice 3.1%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -0.2      +3.9 75 -4.2 298 71.5 115 -0.5 183 0.0 1
183 Middle Tennessee 2.8%   4 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 -1.0      -2.7 260 +1.7 110 71.6 112 +5.1 107 0.0 1
198 Charlotte 2.1%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 10 -1.8      -0.3 180 -1.5 230 61.2 342 +1.5 159 0.0 1
203 Florida Atlantic 1.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -1.9      +0.9 143 -2.8 266 69.0 191 -9.9 308 0.0 1
220 Florida International 1.6%   5 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 -2.6      -3.0 271 +0.4 155 66.2 255 +5.5 101 0.0 1
233 Old Dominion 0.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -3.5      -2.7 262 -0.8 202 60.5 344 -6.0 260 0.0 1
247 Southern Miss 0.4%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -4.5      -5.0 305 +0.5 150 69.1 190 -2.2 209 0.0 1
296 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 18 4 - 14 -7.5      -2.5 249 -5.0 314 74.1 70 -7.3 282 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
UAB 2.2 51.6 19.0 11.8 7.1 3.8 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
North Texas 4.4 16.3 15.3 15.3 12.0 9.8 8.1 6.9 5.3 4.2 2.5 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.3
Louisiana Tech 4.5 15.4 16.0 14.0 11.4 11.5 8.1 6.7 5.6 4.0 2.7 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.4
Marshall 4.7 14.1 15.4 13.6 12.2 9.5 9.3 6.5 5.4 4.2 3.7 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.4
Western Kentucky 4.9 12.1 15.3 14.0 11.3 11.1 8.9 6.8 5.9 4.8 4.0 2.7 1.4 1.2 0.5
UTEP 6.8 5.2 6.5 9.7 8.8 9.9 9.2 9.9 8.9 7.1 7.2 5.9 5.4 3.9 2.3
Rice 7.4 2.9 4.7 6.5 7.3 9.6 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.1 8.6 6.7 6.3 4.2 2.3
Middle Tennessee 7.3 2.4 5.5 7.4 8.3 9.1 10.1 9.9 9.9 8.4 8.4 6.9 6.1 4.9 2.8
Charlotte 7.9 1.6 4.6 5.6 7.3 8.8 8.1 9.5 9.2 9.8 9.8 8.3 7.8 6.0 3.7
Florida Atlantic 8.2 2.3 3.8 5.9 6.2 7.3 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.7 9.7 10.2 7.8 7.2 5.3
Florida International 8.5 1.6 3.0 4.4 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.7 9.4 8.9 10.5 10.2 10.2 7.3 4.9
Old Dominion 9.6 0.8 1.2 2.4 3.5 4.6 5.4 7.2 8.8 9.4 11.1 12.1 13.3 12.3 8.0
Southern Miss 10.5 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.1 3.5 5.5 7.3 8.1 10.7 12.4 15.0 15.2 14.6
Texas San Antonio 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.8 4.6 7.6 9.7 14.2 20.3 32.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UAB 14 - 4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 3.8 6.9 10.1 14.4 16.0 18.2 13.2 9.8 3.4
North Texas 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.5 4.1 6.6 10.2 11.1 13.3 13.8 13.7 10.6 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.5
Louisiana Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 4.2 7.0 9.2 12.9 13.6 13.2 12.6 10.4 6.7 3.4 1.4 0.2
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.1 5.2 7.7 9.7 11.3 13.7 13.5 11.2 9.6 6.4 3.5 1.6 0.5
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 5.2 8.3 10.1 12.5 13.0 13.2 11.9 9.3 6.0 2.7 1.1 0.3
UTEP 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.3 6.0 7.7 9.6 11.8 12.8 11.9 11.9 9.6 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Rice 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.9 11.4 14.6 14.7 12.0 9.7 6.5 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Middle Tennessee 9 - 9 0.5 0.9 1.8 4.1 6.0 8.9 11.9 12.2 15.1 12.6 9.5 7.8 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.1 4.9 8.3 10.5 12.5 13.2 12.5 11.8 8.9 5.8 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.4 4.6 5.7 9.0 10.9 13.6 12.5 11.5 9.8 7.5 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Florida International 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.8 4.0 6.5 10.1 11.4 13.9 12.3 12.4 9.4 8.1 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
Old Dominion 7 - 11 0.1 1.2 3.6 6.9 10.1 12.9 14.3 13.1 12.5 10.0 6.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 6 - 12 0.7 2.4 5.4 9.5 13.8 14.3 14.9 12.4 10.3 7.3 4.2 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
Texas San Antonio 4 - 14 2.4 7.7 12.9 15.0 15.8 14.5 12.0 8.0 5.1 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UAB 51.6% 37.9 10.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
North Texas 16.3% 9.2 5.0 1.7 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 15.4% 9.0 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1
Marshall 14.1% 8.3 4.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
Western Kentucky 12.1% 6.8 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
UTEP 5.2% 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Rice 2.9% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 2.4% 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 1.6% 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
Florida Atlantic 2.3% 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida International 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.8% 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UAB 41.4% 36.6% 4.8% 12   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 2.0 2.8 6.7 13.0 8.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 58.6 7.6%
North Texas 14.3% 13.0% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.3 4.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 85.7 1.5%
Louisiana Tech 13.7% 13.1% 0.6% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 5.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 86.3 0.7%
Marshall 11.6% 10.7% 0.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.0 3.6 3.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 88.4 1.0%
Western Kentucky 8.9% 8.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 0.3 91.1 0.2%
UTEP 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 94.4 0.2%
Rice 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 96.9 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 97.2 0.0%
Charlotte 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 97.9 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 98.5 0.0%
Florida International 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UAB 41.4% 2.5% 40.4% 14.6% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
North Texas 14.3% 1.0% 13.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 13.7% 0.5% 13.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 11.6% 0.7% 11.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 8.9% 0.2% 8.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.6% 0.2% 5.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 1.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.6 0.2
1st Round 99.5% 1.1 0.5 93.9 5.6 0.0
2nd Round 25.5% 0.3 74.5 25.0 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 7.8% 0.1 92.3 7.7 0.1
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Final Four 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1