Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
96 Liberty 27.2%   13   3 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 +5.3      +4.7 68 +0.6 150 64.4 310 +2.5 139 0.0 1
111 New Mexico St. 20.8%   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 8 13 - 7 +3.9      +0.5 146 +3.4 83 63.2 332 +12.2 45 0.0 1
123 Western Kentucky 15.5%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +2.8      +1.0 135 +1.8 113 77.8 31 +7.0 83 0.0 1
140 Sam Houston St. 10.5%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +1.2      +2.9 97 -1.7 215 69.1 195 +6.0 93 0.0 1
149 Middle Tennessee 7.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 0.0      +0.8 141 -0.7 190 70.0 171 +3.9 121 0.0 1
164 Kennesaw St. 5.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.8      +1.3 131 -2.1 231 79.9 15 -0.4 173 0.0 1
193 Louisiana Tech 4.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -2.2      -4.7 300 +2.5 98 62.5 346 -2.2 206 0.0 1
217 Florida International 2.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -3.4      -3.2 254 -0.2 172 73.1 98 -5.9 258 0.0 1
225 Jacksonville St. 2.1%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -3.8      -5.3 318 +1.5 120 63.1 334 -9.1 304 0.0 1
234 UTEP 1.7%   0 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 12 -4.3      -5.1 314 +0.8 143 64.1 314 -10.6 319 0.0 1
241 Missouri St. 1.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -4.6      -3.4 264 -1.2 206 61.3 354 -10.1 312 0.0 1
242 Delaware 1.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -4.6      -1.8 220 -2.8 263 66.6 264 -5.0 245 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Nov 25 96 Liberty 69 129 Towson 72   
Tue, Nov 25 111 New Mexico St. 57 134 UC Irvine 45   
Tue, Nov 25 80 McNeese St. 72 149 Middle Tennessee 62   
Tue, Nov 25 164 Kennesaw St. 83 295 Oral Roberts 91   
Tue, Nov 25 107 UAB 75 234 UTEP 59   
Tue, Nov 25 242 Delaware 73 286 UNC Greensboro 60   
Wed, Nov 26 13 Vanderbilt 83 123 Western Kentucky 78   
Wed, Nov 26 173 Idaho St. 81 140 Sam Houston St. 84   
Wed, Nov 26 165 Florida Gulf Coast 100 164 Kennesaw St. 102   
Wed, Nov 26 195 Indiana St. 73 193 Louisiana Tech 75   
Wed, Nov 26 116 Bradley 74 96 Liberty 64   
Wed, Nov 26 217 Florida International 74 255 Nebraska Omaha 61   
Wed, Nov 26 225 Jacksonville St. 43 160 North Dakota St. 56   
Wed, Nov 26 337 Georgia St. 58 111 New Mexico St. 77   
Thu, Nov 27 87 South Florida 97 123 Western Kentucky 91   
Fri, Nov 28 123 Western Kentucky 75 99 Wichita St. 70   
Fri, Nov 28 212 Idaho 68 140 Sam Houston St. 94   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Nov 29 331 Alcorn St. 61 193 Louisiana Tech 71 84%   
Mon, Dec 1 149 Middle Tennessee 77 107 UAB 78 55%   
Mon, Dec 1 225 Jacksonville St. 68 243 North Alabama 64 65%   
Mon, Dec 1 242 Delaware 77 166 Iona 78 52%   
Tue, Dec 2 49 Oklahoma St. 90 140 Sam Houston St. 77 88%   
Tue, Dec 2 111 New Mexico St. 67 179 South Alabama 61 70%   
Tue, Dec 2 317 Jackson St. 73 164 Kennesaw St. 84 84%   
Wed, Dec 3 165 Florida Gulf Coast 76 217 Florida International 77 52%   
Wed, Dec 3 249 Georgia Southern 70 193 Louisiana Tech 69 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.8 38.2 21.1 13.5 9.2 6.4 4.3 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2
New Mexico St. 3.3 28.5 20.4 15.1 11.0 7.7 5.8 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4
Western Kentucky 3.9 18.6 17.7 15.8 12.8 10.1 8.0 6.0 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.5
Sam Houston St. 4.7 12.2 13.8 14.2 12.7 11.6 9.8 7.9 6.3 4.7 3.3 2.2 1.3
Middle Tennessee 5.4 8.5 10.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 10.6 9.4 7.8 6.7 5.2 3.6 2.3
Kennesaw St. 6.2 5.3 7.6 9.2 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.6 10.0 8.5 7.5 5.6 3.7
Louisiana Tech 6.7 3.8 5.8 8.1 9.0 10.2 10.6 10.5 10.1 9.5 8.9 7.5 5.9
Florida International 7.8 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.2 7.8 8.7 10.0 10.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 10.8
Jacksonville St. 8.0 1.8 3.2 4.2 5.8 7.2 8.7 9.8 10.4 11.9 12.5 12.5 12.0
UTEP 8.2 1.4 2.8 3.9 5.5 6.7 8.7 9.7 10.6 11.4 12.6 13.1 13.7
Missouri St. 8.3 1.2 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.4 7.9 9.3 10.8 12.4 12.6 13.7 14.5
Delaware 8.4 1.0 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.6 12.3 13.4 14.8 14.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.8 6.7 9.1 11.2 12.9 13.8 13.0 10.5 6.7 3.6 1.0
New Mexico St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.3 8.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 12.3 10.3 7.8 4.8 2.4 0.6
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.8 8.5 10.9 12.2 12.9 11.9 10.2 7.7 5.1 2.7 0.9 0.2
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.6 9.0 10.5 12.1 12.1 11.6 9.8 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
Middle Tennessee 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 10.4 11.6 11.8 11.1 9.8 7.8 5.8 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.4 8.7 10.2 11.8 11.6 11.1 10.0 8.1 5.7 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.0 9.5 11.2 11.6 11.5 10.5 8.4 6.6 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.6 8.7 10.9 11.9 11.7 10.9 9.9 7.9 5.8 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.6 6.9 9.4 11.0 12.0 11.7 10.7 9.4 7.3 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 7.3 9.9 10.8 11.9 11.9 10.7 9.1 6.9 5.0 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.3 12.1 10.5 8.2 6.6 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 7 - 13 0.3 1.1 3.1 5.5 8.0 10.8 12.0 12.6 11.9 10.1 8.2 6.4 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 38.2% 27.9 8.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
New Mexico St. 28.5% 19.8 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Western Kentucky 18.6% 12.0 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Sam Houston St. 12.2% 7.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 8.5% 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5.3% 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida International 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
UTEP 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 27.2% 27.0% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.0 11.3 8.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 72.8 0.2%
New Mexico St. 20.8% 20.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.0 9.2 5.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 79.2 0.3%
Western Kentucky 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.0 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 84.5 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 89.5 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.4 92.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 94.4 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 95.9 0.0%
Florida International 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 97.6 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 97.9 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 98.3 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 98.4 0.0%
Delaware 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 27.2% 0.2% 27.1% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 20.8% 0.2% 20.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 15.5% 0.1% 15.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 10.5% 0.2% 10.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 7.2% 0.3% 7.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.6% 0.1% 5.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.5% 0.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 98.9 0.2
2nd Round 12.8% 0.1 87.2 12.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0