Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 Liberty 38.7%   12   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 6 13 - 5 +8.0      +2.3 111 +5.7 40 61.7 343 +13.8 39 0.0 1
103 Louisiana Tech 17.2%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +4.5      +2.7 102 +1.8 115 64.6 300 +6.4 88 0.0 1
115 Western Kentucky 13.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3.3      -0.1 176 +3.4 85 84.3 1 +2.1 135 0.0 1
128 Middle Tennessee 8.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      +0.8 150 +0.9 143 69.2 172 +6.7 87 0.0 1
139 Sam Houston St. 7.1%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 +1.3      +2.0 118 -0.7 194 71.2 120 -0.4 178 0.0 1
146 Kennesaw St. 6.3%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +0.8      +0.9 147 -0.1 170 80.1 10 +4.5 104 0.0 1
158 UTEP 5.7%   3 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +0.2      -2.7 243 +2.9 90 73.0 76 +2.1 134 0.0 1
174 Jacksonville St. 4.1%   3 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -0.8      +0.6 159 -1.5 217 62.8 331 -2.0 197 0.0 1
218 New Mexico St. 1.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -3.1      -2.5 239 -0.6 191 66.1 267 -7.4 286 0.0 1
253 Florida International 0.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -5.0      -4.8 309 -0.2 175 74.4 54 -11.3 328 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 2.0 53.9 20.4 11.0 6.2 3.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 3.4 21.6 22.3 17.0 12.6 9.3 6.9 4.8 3.1 1.9 0.7
Western Kentucky 4.0 15.1 17.6 16.3 13.4 11.4 9.1 7.1 5.0 3.3 1.6
Middle Tennessee 4.8 8.1 12.6 13.8 13.8 13.0 11.8 10.1 8.2 5.6 3.0
Sam Houston St. 5.0 7.1 11.0 12.9 13.5 13.2 12.4 11.0 8.8 6.6 3.3
Kennesaw St. 5.3 6.0 9.6 12.2 12.9 13.4 12.9 11.5 10.1 7.2 4.2
UTEP 5.6 5.5 8.7 10.3 11.6 12.1 12.8 12.1 11.6 9.4 6.0
Jacksonville St. 6.2 3.3 6.0 8.1 9.9 11.2 12.7 13.5 14.0 12.3 9.0
New Mexico St. 7.4 0.9 2.4 4.0 5.7 7.8 10.7 13.1 16.0 19.9 19.4
Florida International 8.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.3 4.9 7.2 10.3 15.2 22.0 33.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.6 6.0 9.1 12.1 14.7 15.7 14.7 11.7 6.5 2.1
Louisiana Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 9.4 12.4 14.0 13.8 12.8 10.2 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.3
Western Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 8.9 11.9 12.9 13.5 12.2 10.0 7.2 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2
Middle Tennessee 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.9 7.0 9.9 11.9 13.6 13.3 11.8 9.8 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.4 7.9 10.5 12.8 13.6 13.1 11.3 8.7 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.9 8.7 11.2 13.2 13.8 12.7 10.7 7.7 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
UTEP 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.9 7.4 10.1 12.0 12.8 12.8 11.2 9.2 6.7 4.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.9 6.8 9.6 11.6 13.2 13.1 12.0 9.8 7.0 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 6 - 12 0.4 2.1 4.7 8.3 12.0 13.6 14.0 13.3 11.2 8.2 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 1.3 4.5 8.7 13.1 15.2 14.9 13.5 10.6 7.4 5.1 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 53.9% 41.6 10.0 1.9 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Tech 21.6% 13.7 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Western Kentucky 15.1% 9.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 8.1% 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1
Sam Houston St. 7.1% 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Kennesaw St. 6.0% 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
UTEP 5.5% 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida International 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 38.7% 36.3% 2.5% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.2 12.0 17.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 61.3 3.9%
Louisiana Tech 17.2% 17.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 9.4 4.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 82.8 0.2%
Western Kentucky 13.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.2 3.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 86.8 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 92.0 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 92.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 93.7 0.0%
UTEP 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 94.3 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 95.9 0.0%
New Mexico St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 98.4 0.0%
Florida International 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 38.7% 1.6% 38.0% 12.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 17.2% 0.1% 17.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 13.2% 0.2% 13.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 0.1% 8.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 7.1% 0.4% 7.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.3% 0.1% 6.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 4.1% 0.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.3 2.7
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 97.5 1.8
2nd Round 21.7% 0.2 78.3 21.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0