Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#88
Pace61.1#341
Improvement+1.4#33

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#89
First Shot+5.4#42
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#332
Layup/Dunks+3.6#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.8#4
Freethrows-2.9#352
Improvement-0.3#251

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#1
Layups/Dunks-0.2#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#107
Freethrows+0.8#124
Improvement+1.7#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.2% 70.9% 63.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.2% 4.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.0% 86.9% 68.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
First Round69.5% 70.2% 63.8%
Second Round20.2% 20.7% 15.9%
Sweet Sixteen6.0% 6.2% 4.4%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 26 - 6
Quad 415 - 022 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 2   @ Alabama L 59-95 11%     0 - 1 -14.2 -4.4 -8.4
  Nov 14, 2022 254   NC Central W 79-63 92%     1 - 1 +8.5 +8.4 +1.1
  Nov 18, 2022 111   Southern Miss L 72-76 76%     1 - 2 -3.2 +5.3 -8.8
  Nov 22, 2022 50   Northwestern L 52-66 43%     1 - 3 -4.1 -10.1 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2022 89   Bradley W 55-44 60%     2 - 3 +16.6 -0.6 +19.8
  Nov 26, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 80-53 98%     3 - 3 +9.7 +4.6 +7.2
  Dec 02, 2022 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-59 94%     4 - 3 +10.3 +14.4 -1.6
  Dec 12, 2022 69   @ Oral Roberts L 70-84 39%     4 - 4 -3.1 +1.0 -4.4
  Dec 17, 2022 195   Bryant W 82-62 81%     5 - 4 +18.7 +9.0 +10.5
  Dec 19, 2022 240   Grambling St. W 75-56 91%     6 - 4 +12.2 +2.7 +9.9
  Dec 29, 2022 253   @ Bellarmine W 70-53 83%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +14.9 +10.6 +8.1
  Jan 02, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 77-48 87%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +25.0 +8.9 +18.6
  Jan 05, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 75-41 92%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +26.2 +2.3 +25.9
  Jan 08, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 59-62 74%     9 - 5 3 - 1 -1.5 -7.4 +5.7
  Jan 12, 2023 291   North Alabama W 72-54 94%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +8.4 -4.8 +14.0
  Jan 14, 2023 338   Central Arkansas W 82-62 97%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +6.3 +5.9 +1.4
  Jan 19, 2023 197   @ Jacksonville W 66-52 74%     12 - 5 6 - 1 +15.3 +6.2 +11.7
  Jan 21, 2023 282   @ North Florida W 73-62 87%     13 - 5 7 - 1 +7.2 -0.1 +8.1
  Jan 26, 2023 199   Stetson W 74-45 87%     14 - 5 8 - 1 +24.8 +6.3 +23.1
  Jan 28, 2023 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-57 85%     15 - 5 9 - 1 +14.3 +9.8 +6.9
  Feb 02, 2023 315   @ Austin Peay W 69-55 90%    
  Feb 04, 2023 194   @ Lipscomb W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 09, 2023 253   Bellarmine W 69-53 93%    
  Feb 11, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 16, 2023 150   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-58 83%    
  Feb 22, 2023 221   @ Queens W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 24, 2023 221   Queens W 78-64 90%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.2 21.2 34.5 22.4 85.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.5 4.9 0.9 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 11.8 26.1 35.4 22.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 22.4    22.4
16-2 97.4% 34.5    30.5 4.0
15-3 81.3% 21.2    14.6 6.6 0.1
14-4 52.5% 6.2    2.7 3.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.2% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 85.0% 85.0 70.3 14.1 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 22.4% 80.4% 75.6% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 11.1 3.0 0.1 4.4 19.4%
16-2 35.4% 71.4% 70.8% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.4 11.5 11.8 1.5 0.0 10.1 2.2%
15-3 26.1% 66.1% 66.0% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 4.4 10.0 2.8 0.1 8.8 0.2%
14-4 11.8% 61.3% 61.3% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.2 0.1 4.6 0.0%
13-5 3.5% 57.2% 57.2% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.5
12-6 0.7% 50.5% 50.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
11-7 0.1% 40.4% 40.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.2% 68.8% 1.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 27.9 29.9 7.6 0.4 0.0 29.8 4.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.4% 80.4% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.4 12.6 49.5 13.4 0.5