Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 92
Expected Predictive Rating +10.5 56
Pace 62.5 334
Improvement -0.2 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #57 A F A- D- A
Defense C #185 C D C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 8 65% 54 +8.9 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% 364 37% 205 -5.4 363
Three Pointers 45% 92 40% 12 +6.1 25
1st FG Attempt 1.21 5 +9.6 5
Second Chance 18.5% 365 0.98 252 0.18 363
Turnovers 13.3% 18
Freethrows 0.26 321 69% 293 0.18 332
Total Offense +5.9 57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 52% 42 +3.2 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 131 43% 332 -1.6 303
Three Pointers 41% 172 36% 257 -1.2 243
1st FG Attempt 1.01 168 +0.4 167
Second Chance 31.6% 225 1.20 349 0.38 318
Turnovers 17.9% 120
Freethrows 0.24 19 72% 155 0.17 23
Total Defense -0.5 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +2.5 1 -0.3 120
Shot Type Accuracy +6.5 19 -0.1 179
Possession Length 18.4 291 18.2 311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 332 0.13 51
Improvement -0.5 #219 +0.3 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.7% 39.4% 35.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.5% 99.9% 98.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round37.7% 39.4% 35.0%
Second Round4.7% 5.2% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 02 - 1
Quad 310 - 412 - 5
Quad 413 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 155 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 79% +8  95% 1 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +24 A+ A- A+ F+ -11 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 9 109 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 68% +15  97% 2 - 0 A +21 A+ +16 A+ D- A- B +5 A+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 24 222 Vermont W 79 - 73 80% +10  95% 3 - 0 C+ +3 B- +4 A+ F C+ C -1 C- F+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 171 Towson L 69 - 72 73% +1  53% 3 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 B- D- A+ D -7 D+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 119 Bradley L 64 - 74 60% -10  1% 3 - 2 D+ -7 D -5 B- F C+ C- -3 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  97% 4 - 2 A +19 A- +9 A+ D C A +11 A- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 27 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 12% -25  0% 4 - 3 F -22 F -21 F F F C- -2 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 98 @Dayton W 64 - 61 39% -2  33% 5 - 3 B+ +11 B +6 A- F A+ B +6 A C- C
 Sun, Dec 28 187 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 66% -0  38% 6 - 3 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +14 A D A+ F+ -10 C- F C+
 Fri, Jan 2 152 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 79% +8  99% 7 - 3 2 - 0 B- +5 C +0 A F C- B +4 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 176 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 81% +4  70% 8 - 3 3 - 0 B- +5 A- +10 C C- A+ D+ -4 B F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 221 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 71% +8  96% 9 - 3 4 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 B C- A+ A- +8 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 120 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 49% +5  84% 10 - 3 5 - 0 B+ +14 B+ +7 A+ F C+ B+ +6 C B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 165 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 80% +6  89% 11 - 3 6 - 0 C -2 A- +9 A+ F A+ F+ -10 D F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 249 UTEP W 80 - 69 89% +7  95% 12 - 3 7 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ F A+ D- -8 F A A-
 Wed, Jan 21 159 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 60% +5  81% 13 - 3 8 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A+ D+ C+ C +0 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 24 281 Delaware W 67 - 51 92% +7  80% 14 - 3 9 - 0 B- +6 D+ -2 A F A A +11 C A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 172 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 62% +12  90% 15 - 3 10 - 0 A +18 A+ +19 A+ F A+ C+ +1 A F B-
 Wed, Feb 4 281 @Delaware W 75 - 69 81% +1  53% 16 - 3 11 - 0 C+ +2 B +7 A+ F C D+ -4 D- A- D
 Sat, Feb 7 179 Missouri St. W 79 - 76 82% +7  86% 17 - 3 12 - 0 C -1 B- +5 A F B- D -6 C F D
 Wed, Feb 11 165 @New Mexico St. W 75 - 72 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 249 @UTEP W 73 - 66 76%
 Thu, Feb 19 187 Florida International W 83 - 73 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 159 Western Kentucky W 78 - 69 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 152 @Kennesaw St. W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 176 @Jacksonville St. W 70 - 67 63%
 Thu, Mar 5 221 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 61 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 120 Sam Houston St. W 80 - 74 69%
Totals 23 - 5 18 - 2 +5 B +6 A F A- C +0 C D C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B C- A- A- 48% 6% 45% A A F C- F A- D D D- C B+ D- D+ C 37% 22% 41% C+ C C- F+ D C+ B+ C B+
1.17 65% 37% 40% +7 +2 1.21 18% 1.0 .18 13% .26 69% .18 1.09 52% 43% 36% 0 0 1.01 32% 1.2 .38 18% .24 72% .19
Nov
7		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- A+ A- C+ B+ F+ A F F D- 35% 22% 43% C D- F F F B B- A+ B+
1.44 64% 50% 46% +12 +2 1.30 32% 1.3 .42 8% .30 71% .21 1.20 50% 50% 40% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.5 .55 19% .34 65% .22
Nov
9		 Florida Atlantic A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 7% 47% B+ A+ F C+ D- A- F A+ D B A B- A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% C A+ C F F C+ F F F
1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19 1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38
Nov
24		 Vermont B- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% A+ A+ F A+ F C+ D+ F F C C F C- C- 34% 20% 46% B- C- C+ F F+ C+ C C C
1.17 69% 33% 43% +12 +3 1.31 10% 1.3 .14 12% .30 50% .15 1.08 59% 50% 35% +3 0 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 16% .27 73% .20
Nov
25		 Towson C+ A D- F C+ 44% 6% 50% A B- F+ C D- A+ F A+ F+ D D F A+ D 35% 35% 30% B- D+ D+ F F C- C+ D+ C
1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14 1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
26		 Bradley D D+ A+ B- C 43% 9% 48% A+ B- F F F C+ A- F D+ C- D+ D+ F D- 35% 28% 37% B D F F F A+ B F C
1.00 55% 50% 36% +2 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21 1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24
Dec
6		 Coppin St. A- A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 6% 55% B+ A+ D C D C F F F A B+ A+ A A 31% 31% 39% B A- C+ A+ A+ C- C- B- C
1.35 76% 33% 52% +22 +2 1.49 31% 1.1 .34 16% .12 57% .07 0.74 47% 20% 26% -13 -2 0.71 28% 0.5 .13 22% .34 67% .23
Dec
10		 North Carolina St. F C- F F 43% 0% 57% A F F F F F F F F C- D A- F+ C- 46% 13% 41% D D+ B A+ A+ C- C A B-
0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06 1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22
Dec
20		 Dayton B B+ F A+ B+ 55% 12% 33% A+ A- F F F A+ F F F B A+ F C+ A 27% 16% 57% A- A D B- C- C A+ D- A
1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07 1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24
Dec
28		 Florida International A A+ D- B+ A 34% 5% 61% B A D C- D A+ F+ B- D- F+ A+ F D- C+ 60% 16% 24% F C- F F F C+ D C- D
1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18 1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25
Jan
2		 Kennesaw St. C B- A+ A- B+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A F C F C- C B+ C+ B A+ A- A- A+ 40% 12% 48% C A+ F A C- C+ A+ C+ A+
1.11 57% 50% 40% +4 +3 1.16 14% 1.0 .14 16% .39 79% .31 1.00 38% 29% 28% -14 +1 0.77 46% 0.8 .35 18% .22 69% .15
Jan
4		 Jacksonville St. A- D F B C- 50% 4% 46% A+ C C+ D- C- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ B+ A+ B- B+ 51% 10% 39% D+ B D F F F+ B- F F+
1.23 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 11% .49 79% .39 1.08 48% 20% 32% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.2 .40 14% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Louisiana Tech A- C F B B- 46% 8% 46% B+ B D+ C+ C- A+ D+ A C A- A+ C+ F C- 34% 22% 44% B- C A+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+
1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24 0.92 29% 36% 41% -5 -1 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09
Jan
10		 Sam Houston St. B+ A- A+ C+ A 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F C+ B+ A A B+ A+ F F C+ 46% 16% 38% D C D- A B- A C+ F C-
1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30 1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20
Jan
15		 New Mexico St. A- B C- A+ A+ 52% 14% 34% A A+ F F F A+ D C+ D+ F+ C- C+ F F+ 19% 37% 44% A+ D C- F F D- A+ A+ A+
1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27 1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
17		 UTEP A A+ A C+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A+ A+ F C- F A+ F A F D- D+ F F F 33% 23% 44% F+ F A+ C A A- A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16 1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04
Jan
21		 Western Kentucky A- F F A+ A 33% 2% 65% A+ A+ F A+ D+ C+ B+ C+ B+ C A B+ F D 32% 21% 47% B D+ C F F A D+ A C
1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Delaware D+ B D A B+ 36% 6% 57% A A F F F A D F F A F A D+ C 33% 28% 40% B+ C A+ F A- A+ D- A+ B-
1.11 65% 33% 41% +8 +2 1.21 16% 0.4 .06 10% .24 62% .15 0.85 69% 27% 38% +3 -1 1.05 4% 2.0 .08 27% .29 54% .16
Jan
29		 Middle Tennessee A+ A A+ A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ F F F A+ F D- F C+ A A- C+ A 26% 24% 50% B A D- F F B- D- B- D+
1.32 70% 75% 48% +18 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12 1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20
Feb
4		 Delaware B A+ F A A+ 30% 9% 61% A- A+ F F F C A A+ A+ D+ F F D+ F 28% 24% 48% B+ D- A+ D- A- D A- F B-
1.20 85% 25% 41% +13 +1 1.30 9% 0.0 .00 14% .37 90% .34 1.11 71% 50% 38% +9 -1 1.18 8% 1.0 .08 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
7		 Missouri St. B- A- A+ D+ B+ 48% 11% 41% A+ A F B+ F B- A+ F A- D B+ B+ F C- 38% 29% 33% C+ C D+ F F D F A+ C-
1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32 1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 12.1 22.3 28.8 22.3 9.3 99.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 12.1 22.3 28.8 22.3 9.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 9.3    9.3
19-1 100.0% 22.3    22.3
18-2 100.0% 28.8    28.8
17-3 100.0% 22.3    22.3
16-4 100.0% 12.1    11.9 0.2
15-5 97.8% 4.0    3.2 0.7 0.0
14-6 70.4% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-7 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 99.5% 99.5 98.1 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 9.3% 47.1% 46.9% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 2.5 1.8 0.1 4.9 0.4%
19-1 22.3% 43.2% 43.2% 11.9 1.8 6.9 1.0 0.0 12.7
18-2 28.8% 39.1% 39.1% 12.1 1.0 7.6 2.6 0.1 17.5
17-3 22.3% 33.3% 33.3% 12.4 0.1 4.3 2.9 0.2 14.9
16-4 12.1% 30.1% 30.1% 12.6 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.2 8.4
15-5 4.0% 27.7% 27.7% 12.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.9
14-6 1.0% 23.5% 23.5% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.7% 37.7% 0.0% 12.1 62.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.4% 100.0% 11.4 0.9 55.9 42.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%