Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#171
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#298
Pace60.3#345
Improvement-0.1#176

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#212
First Shot+0.0#178
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#260
Layup/Dunks-1.8#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#48
Freethrows-1.7#281
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot-1.3#221
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#51
Layups/Dunks+5.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#344
Freethrows+0.8#143
Improvement+0.0#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 19.4% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 74.8% 84.9% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 89.1% 80.7%
Conference Champion 22.4% 26.7% 17.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four3.4% 2.6% 4.3%
First Round16.3% 18.2% 14.3%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 10   @ LSU L 58-74 4%     0 - 1 +3.4 -6.1 +9.7
  Nov 19, 2021 106   Iona L 50-54 33%     0 - 2 +0.2 -11.9 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2021 253   Manhattan L 60-76 68%     0 - 3 -21.0 -7.4 -15.2
  Nov 23, 2021 345   Bethune-Cookman W 59-51 93%     1 - 3 -8.4 -11.5 +4.5
  Nov 27, 2021 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 73-61 92%     2 - 3 -4.0 +0.3 -3.4
  Dec 02, 2021 132   Missouri W 63-62 52%    
  Dec 06, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 11, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 17, 2021 178   East Carolina W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 22, 2021 112   Northern Iowa L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 04, 2022 268   @ Stetson W 65-62 59%    
  Jan 08, 2022 278   Kennesaw St. W 68-59 79%    
  Jan 11, 2022 288   North Florida W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 15, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 18, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 64-56 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 308   North Alabama W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 08, 2022 222   Lipscomb W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville W 61-59 57%    
  Feb 15, 2022 288   @ North Florida W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 268   Stetson W 68-59 77%    
  Feb 23, 2022 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. W 65-62 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 4.7 6.9 5.9 2.9 0.7 22.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.6 6.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.0 6.0 1.7 0.2 14.2 3rd
4th 0.5 3.5 6.1 1.9 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 4.9 1.8 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.6 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.4 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.2 10.2 12.4 14.5 14.9 12.6 10.4 6.4 2.9 0.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 98.6% 2.9    2.7 0.2
14-2 92.1% 5.9    4.7 1.2
13-3 66.9% 6.9    3.6 2.9 0.4 0.0
12-4 37.2% 4.7    1.3 2.1 1.1 0.2
11-5 8.5% 1.3    0.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 13.1 6.9 1.9 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 54.9% 54.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 2.9% 41.1% 41.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.7
14-2 6.4% 38.7% 38.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 3.9
13-3 10.4% 32.4% 32.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.8 7.0
12-4 12.6% 23.1% 23.1% 15.2 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 9.7
11-5 14.9% 19.1% 19.1% 15.7 0.1 0.9 1.9 12.1
10-6 14.5% 13.7% 13.7% 15.8 0.3 1.6 12.5
9-7 12.4% 9.9% 9.9% 15.9 0.1 1.1 11.1
8-8 10.2% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 9.3
7-9 7.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.4 6.7
6-10 4.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.1
5-11 2.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-12 1.0% 1.0
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.2 5.7 7.8 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.0 20.8 37.7 41.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%