Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#110
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#145
Pace64.4#311
Improvement-5.4#362

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#98
First Shot+3.9#72
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#235
Layup/Dunks+8.9#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#39
Freethrows-5.4#362
Improvement-5.3#365

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#145
First Shot+1.8#111
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#276
Layups/Dunks-1.1#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#82
Freethrows+2.0#67
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 29.1% 20.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 89.0% 95.8% 86.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 93.5% 88.3%
Conference Champion 31.3% 39.5% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round22.7% 29.0% 20.6%
Second Round2.9% 4.5% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 174 College of Charleston W 90-75 77%     1 - 0 +11.1 +24.6 -11.8
  Sun, Nov 9 120 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 65%     2 - 0 +19.9 +16.1 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 189 Vermont W 79-73 70%     3 - 0 +4.2 +5.7 -1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 137 Towson L 69-72 59%     3 - 1 -1.6 +4.2 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 26 116 Bradley L 64-74 52%     3 - 2 -6.8 -0.3 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 98%     4 - 2 +21.2 +13.3 +9.2
  Wed, Dec 10 28 @North Carolina St. L 45-85 11%     4 - 3 -22.7 -19.7 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 20 70 @Dayton L 69-76 25%    
  Sun, Dec 28 186 @Florida International W 76-73 60%    
  Fri, Jan 2 155 Kennesaw St. W 83-76 73%    
  Sun, Jan 4 239 Jacksonville St. W 71-60 85%    
  Thu, Jan 8 192 @Louisiana Tech W 68-65 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 127 @Sam Houston St. L 74-76 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 129 New Mexico St. W 71-67 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 230 UTEP W 73-62 83%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 @Western Kentucky L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 245 Delaware W 76-64 85%    
  Wed, Jan 28 153 @Middle Tennessee W 73-72 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 245 @Delaware W 73-67 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 249 Missouri St. W 75-63 85%    
  Wed, Feb 11 129 @New Mexico St. L 68-70 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 230 @UTEP W 70-65 66%    
  Thu, Feb 19 186 Florida International W 79-70 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 145 Western Kentucky W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 155 @Kennesaw St. W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 239 @Jacksonville St. W 68-63 68%    
  Thu, Mar 5 192 Louisiana Tech W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 127 Sam Houston St. W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.3 8.2 6.6 4.1 1.9 0.4 31.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.0 6.5 5.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 4.5 6.6 9.1 11.1 12.9 13.3 12.6 10.5 7.1 4.1 1.9 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
18-2 99.1% 4.1    3.9 0.2
17-3 92.3% 6.6    5.7 0.8 0.0
16-4 77.6% 8.2    6.0 2.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 50.2% 6.3    3.3 2.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 22.8% 3.0    0.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 22.2 7.0 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 63.9% 60.7% 3.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8.3%
19-1 1.9% 52.2% 51.5% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 1.5%
18-2 4.1% 47.8% 47.8% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.2
17-3 7.1% 40.6% 40.6% 12.2 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2
16-4 10.5% 33.7% 33.7% 12.5 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.0
15-5 12.6% 29.3% 29.3% 12.8 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.9
14-6 13.3% 24.6% 24.6% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 10.0
13-7 12.9% 21.2% 21.2% 13.3 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 10.1
12-8 11.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 9.5
11-9 9.1% 9.9% 9.9% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 8.2
10-10 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.1
9-11 4.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.3
8-12 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.7 8.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 77.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.4 2.5 7.5 5.0 7.5 25.0 20.0 30.0 2.5