Preseason Rankings
Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#142
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.2#47
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#124
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.6% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 13.1
.500 or above 63.0% 69.2% 41.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 65.6% 46.6%
Conference Champion 10.9% 12.5% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 4.8% 10.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round9.2% 10.5% 4.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 332   @ Florida A&M W 78-70 78%    
  Nov 16, 2025 106   South Florida L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 24, 2025 165   Rice W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 25, 2025 310   Oral Roberts W 81-72 79%    
  Nov 26, 2025 181   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 02, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 05, 2025 284   Georgia St. W 83-72 83%    
  Dec 17, 2025 147   @ Middle Tennessee L 74-77 41%    
  Dec 21, 2025 18   Alabama L 78-94 9%    
  Jan 02, 2026 97   @ Liberty L 69-76 26%    
  Jan 04, 2026 242   @ Delaware W 81-79 57%    
  Jan 07, 2026 162   Missouri St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 10, 2026 153   Jacksonville St. W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 14, 2026 210   Florida International W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 17, 2026 156   @ Western Kentucky L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 21, 2026 194   @ Sam Houston St. L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 24, 2026 143   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 28, 2026 156   Western Kentucky W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 31, 2026 138   New Mexico St. W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 07, 2026 153   @ Jacksonville St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 12, 2026 147   Middle Tennessee W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 14, 2026 194   Sam Houston St. W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 18, 2026 162   @ Missouri St. L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 21, 2026 143   Louisiana Tech W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2026 97   Liberty L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 28, 2026 242   Delaware W 84-76 75%    
  Mar 05, 2026 157   @ UTEP L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 07, 2026 138   @ New Mexico St. L 69-73 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.5 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.4 9.3 10.1 10.1 9.7 8.7 7.5 5.6 4.5 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.9% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 87.6% 2.5    1.9 0.5 0.0
16-4 65.9% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 36.8% 2.1    1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.3% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 7.2 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 77.3% 63.6% 13.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5%
19-1 0.5% 53.7% 48.0% 5.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.0%
18-2 1.6% 45.6% 42.7% 2.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 5.0%
17-3 2.8% 38.1% 38.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.2%
16-4 4.5% 30.9% 30.9% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 0.0%
15-5 5.6% 21.8% 21.8% 12.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.4
14-6 7.5% 17.3% 17.3% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.2
13-7 8.7% 12.8% 12.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.6
12-8 9.7% 8.6% 8.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.9
11-9 10.1% 5.5% 5.5% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6
10-10 10.1% 2.6% 2.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-11 9.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-12 8.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.6 0.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 18.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 90.7 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 25.3 24.7 24.7 25.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 50.6% 4.0 50.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 9.0 100.0
Lose Out 0.0%