Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#150
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#91
Pace70.5#112
Improvement+1.6#19

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#150
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#166
Layup/Dunks-1.0#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows+0.7#118
Improvement+0.4#104

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#166
First Shot-0.9#206
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#83
Layups/Dunks-0.1#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows-1.5#290
Improvement+1.2#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 9.0% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 28.7% 36.3% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.2% 9.0% 6.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 35 - 16 - 5
Quad 413 - 419 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 40   @ Florida L 78-88 11%     0 - 1 +4.0 +10.9 -6.2
  Nov 18, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 72-68 74%     1 - 1 -1.8 -4.9 +3.2
  Nov 19, 2022 179   @ Appalachian St. W 71-67 44%     2 - 1 +6.5 +7.0 -0.2
  Nov 20, 2022 255   Campbell L 61-85 71%     2 - 2 -28.8 -10.9 -19.4
  Nov 26, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-64 20%     2 - 3 +6.8 +0.6 +6.0
  Dec 02, 2022 228   @ Mercer W 66-63 55%     3 - 3 +2.6 -1.9 +4.7
  Dec 05, 2022 280   @ Charleston Southern W 76-65 67%     4 - 3 +7.4 -7.8 +14.6
  Dec 12, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 54-88 10%     4 - 4 -19.1 -14.8 -2.1
  Dec 20, 2022 306   South Carolina Upstate W 65-56 86%     5 - 4 -1.7 -10.1 +8.6
  Dec 23, 2022 21   @ Indiana L 55-69 8%     5 - 5 +2.5 -6.4 +7.9
  Dec 31, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 82-66 91%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +2.3 -6.1 +6.8
  Jan 02, 2023 193   Eastern Kentucky W 79-75 68%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +0.1 -4.6 +4.2
  Jan 05, 2023 282   @ North Florida L 86-89 67%     7 - 6 2 - 1 -6.8 +9.9 -16.8
  Jan 07, 2023 221   @ Queens W 76-67 54%     8 - 6 3 - 1 +9.0 -2.2 +11.0
  Jan 12, 2023 197   Jacksonville W 81-68 69%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +8.9 +9.1 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2023 282   North Florida W 86-72 83%     10 - 6 5 - 1 +4.7 +7.1 -2.0
  Jan 19, 2023 199   @ Stetson W 82-81 OT 48%     11 - 6 6 - 1 +2.3 +0.0 +2.2
  Jan 21, 2023 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 65-63 43%     12 - 6 7 - 1 +4.8 +5.9 -0.8
  Jan 26, 2023 315   Austin Peay W 84-57 86%     13 - 6 8 - 1 +16.1 +0.2 +13.7
  Jan 28, 2023 194   Lipscomb W 85-72 68%     14 - 6 9 - 1 +9.0 +5.0 +3.2
  Feb 02, 2023 253   @ Bellarmine W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 04, 2023 193   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 09, 2023 257   @ Jacksonville St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 11, 2023 257   Jacksonville St. W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 16, 2023 70   Liberty L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 18, 2023 221   Queens W 80-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2023 291   @ North Alabama W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 24, 2023 338   @ Central Arkansas W 81-72 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.2 10.7 10.5 2.7 28.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 6.2 17.7 23.1 12.7 1.4 61.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.8 1.9 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.2 10.5 20.2 27.4 23.4 12.0 2.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7
16-2 88.1% 10.5    6.5 4.0
15-3 45.6% 10.7    4.1 6.5 0.1
14-4 15.3% 4.2    1.0 2.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 2.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.7% 28.7 14.4 13.7 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.7% 15.4% 15.4% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
16-2 12.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.4
15-3 23.4% 10.1% 10.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 21.0
14-4 27.4% 7.6% 7.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 25.3
13-5 20.2% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 19.0
12-6 10.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.1
11-7 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
10-8 0.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.7 3.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 91.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 15.4% 12.4 1.6 6.7 6.7 0.4
Lose Out 0.0%