Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#278
Expected Predictive Rating-8.6#294
Pace71.4#124
Improvement+0.0#169

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#312
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#285
Layup/Dunks-5.6#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#221
Freethrows+3.1#26
Improvement+1.1#76

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#207
First Shot-1.1#217
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#169
Layups/Dunks-0.5#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows-2.0#296
Improvement-1.0#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.2% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 12.5% 19.8% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 38.9% 46.3% 33.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 6.5% 10.8%
First Four2.1% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 47 - 59 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 73-84 7%     0 - 1 -0.2 -3.0 +4.4
  Nov 11, 2021 66   @ Creighton L 44-51 7%     0 - 2 +3.4 -21.5 +24.5
  Nov 19, 2021 68   Belmont L 78-97 16%     0 - 3 -14.7 +2.3 -16.1
  Nov 23, 2021 81   @ Wake Forest L 61-92 8%     0 - 4 -21.2 -10.1 -9.6
  Nov 28, 2021 349   Charleston Southern W 89-52 85%     1 - 4 +19.4 +0.1 +16.4
  Dec 01, 2021 196   Mercer L 68-70 42%    
  Dec 05, 2021 119   @ Wofford L 62-74 12%    
  Dec 18, 2021 239   @ Samford L 74-79 32%    
  Dec 22, 2021 107   @ Nebraska L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 05, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 11, 2022 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 268   @ Stetson L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 18, 2022 288   @ North Florida L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 27, 2022 149   Jacksonville St. L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 29, 2022 308   North Alabama W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-83 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 09, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 288   North Florida W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 16, 2022 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 19, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 23, 2022 268   Stetson W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 171   Liberty L 62-65 40%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.4 4.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 2.9 0.6 7.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 4.4 1.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.9 2.1 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.0 3.8 0.3 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.5 5.2 0.6 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.7 1.1 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.2 1.3 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.9 1.5 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 4.5 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.7 9.9 12.5 14.4 14.7 13.5 10.6 7.0 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 96.1% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 83.7% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
12-4 36.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-5 6.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 29.5% 29.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.5% 25.3% 25.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-3 0.8% 30.7% 30.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6
12-4 2.4% 17.5% 17.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.0
11-5 4.0% 10.7% 10.7% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.6
10-6 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 6.5
9-7 10.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.6 10.0
8-8 13.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.6 12.9
7-9 14.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 14.3
6-10 14.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.1
5-11 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-12 9.9% 9.9
3-13 5.7% 5.7
2-14 2.8% 2.8
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.5 2.9 96.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%