New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #160
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #211
Pace 64.7 #289
Improvement -5.6 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #134 C C B- C- D-
Defense #230 C+ C- C- F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.15 #192 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #40 0.79 #122 +3.7 #33
Three Pointers 39% #227 1.04 #152 -0.8 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #201 -0.9 #201
Freethrows 0.29 #237 72% #182 0.21 #220
Second Chance 33.0% #111 0.93 #308 0.31 #195
Turnovers 15.4% #86
Total Offense +1.2 #134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.20 #237 +2.1 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #101 0.65 #21 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.00 #158 -1.0 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #126 +1.6 #127
Freethrows 0.38 #349 77% #351 0.30 #359
Second Chance 30.8% #188 1.11 #293 0.34 #253
Turnovers 15.8% #248
Total Defense -1.5 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 -1.2% #78
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.1% #151 -1.8% #147
Possession Length 17.9 #245 17.7 #257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.19 #245
Improvement -1.7 #284 -3.8 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.1% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 25.8% 36.1% 12.1%
.500 or above in Conference 20.0% 29.3% 7.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.2% 8.7%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round4.3% 5.0% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 10
Quad 47 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 50 New Mexico W 76 - 68 22% +2  1 - 0 +16 +13 C- A A+ +3 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 226 Samford W 81 - 72 73% +10  2 - 0 +2 +13 B+ A- A- -9 B+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 115 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 37% +5  3 - 0 +15 -9 F B+ F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 272 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 72% +9  4 - 0 +13 -2 D+ D A- +13 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 204 South Alabama L 75 - 77 59% +1  4 - 1 -5 +7 C C- D -12 B- D- D
 Sat, Dec 6 268 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 60% -5  4 - 2 -11 +4 D D B+ -16 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 Tulsa L 70 - 83 21% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F+ D C+ -2 D+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 112 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 48% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +9 A D+ A+ -0 A B- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 182 @Florida International L 74 - 89 43% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -13 +1 A- F C- -14 D F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 185 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 43% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +9 B- C- C+ -14 D+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 168 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 62% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +12 +12 C- A+ B- +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 166 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 62% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -7 -14 F+ D- C- +6 A+ B+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 92 @Liberty L 71 - 73 19% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B- B- A+ -7 C- C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 285 @Delaware W 97 - 68 64% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +25 +36 A+ A+ A+ -7 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 185 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 66% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -14 +6 F C+ A+ -20 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 182 Florida International L 78 - 81 66% -4  7 - 9 3 - 6 -7 -2 F D C+ -5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 285 Delaware L 64 - 73 82% -5  7 - 10 3 - 7 -19 -2 C+ D D+ -18 F B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 146 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 34% -15  7 - 11 3 - 8 -19 -16 F F D -4 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 228 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 52% +2  8 - 11 4 - 8 +8 +9 A+ D C- +0 C C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 255 @UTEP W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 92 Liberty L 71 - 74 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 190 @Jacksonville St. L 68 - 69 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 UTEP W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 168 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 75 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Middle Tennessee L 68 - 71 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 190 Jacksonville St. W 71 - 66 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 146 Kennesaw St. W 79 - 77 57%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 +0 +1 C C B- -1 C+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 0.6 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 2.3 0.2 4.0 4th
5th 0.8 5.1 1.4 7.4 5th
6th 0.2 5.1 5.6 0.2 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.5 9.8 1.6 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 10.0 5.5 0.1 17.0 8th
9th 0.7 7.4 10.2 1.0 19.4 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 8.4 2.2 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.3 0.1 9.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.5 3.1 9.6 19.5 25.2 22.3 14.1 4.9 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 1.0% 17.3% 17.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
11-9 4.9% 10.6% 10.6% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4
10-10 14.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 13.0
9-11 22.3% 4.2% 4.2% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 21.3
8-12 25.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 24.3
7-13 19.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.1 0.6 18.9
6-14 9.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 9.4
5-15 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 14.6 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%