New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #145
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #162
Pace 67.2 #238
Improvement -4.9 #360

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #135 C C+ C- B- D-
Defense #176 C+ F D C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #264 1.21 #124 -1.0 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.84 #79 +4.0 #27
Three Pointers 37% #270 1.00 #195 -2.3 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #169 +0.6 #168
Freethrows 17.5 #184 78% #43 13.6 #116
Second Chance 31.3% #162 0.93 #309 0.29 #248
Turnovers 15.4% #108
Total Offense +1.0 #135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.19 #222 +3.8 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #95 0.58 #11 +1.0 #115
Three Pointers 46% #59 1.03 #199 -2.9 #294
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #115 +2.0 #115
Freethrows 22.3 #347 77% #345 17.2 #12
Second Chance 30.2% #153 1.23 #342 0.37 #297
Turnovers 17.7% #115
Total Defense -0.3 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #315 -1.8% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.6% #132 -2.2% #142
Possession Length 17.8 #229 17.4 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.19 #234
Improvement -1.1 #257 -3.8 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.1% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 69.3% 78.4% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 76.5% 51.7%
Conference Champion 6.8% 9.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.5% 5.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round9.4% 11.1% 6.8%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 77 - 10
Quad 48 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 55 New Mexico W 76-68 29%     2.2   1 - 0 +14.6 +12.8 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 21 229 Samford W 81-72 76%     10.0   2 - 0 +2.2 +13.3 -10.0
  Tue, Nov 25 124 UC Irvine W 57-45 44%     4.6   3 - 0 +14.2 -10.9 +25.2
  Wed, Nov 26 301 Georgia St. W 77-58 79%     9.0   4 - 0 +11.1 -2.9 +12.9
  Tue, Dec 2 197 South Alabama L 75-77 62%     0.5   4 - 1 -4.3 +6.4 -10.8
  Sat, Dec 6 212 @Abilene Christian L 69-77 53%     -4.9   4 - 2 -7.9 +5.4 -14.2
  Sat, Dec 13 81 Tulsa L 70-83 27%     -13.3   4 - 3 -5.9 -2.7 -3.2
  Sun, Dec 21 133 Sam Houston St. W 87-78 58%     13.4   5 - 3 1 - 0 +7.6 +7.3 -0.2
  Fri, Jan 2 167 @Florida International L 74-89 43%     -10.7   5 - 4 1 - 1 -12.6 +0.5 -12.9
  Sun, Jan 4 194 @Missouri St. L 82-89 50%     -7.7   5 - 5 1 - 2 -6.2 +8.8 -14.8
  Thu, Jan 8 147 Western Kentucky W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 120 Middle Tennessee W 72-71 54%    
  Thu, Jan 15 105 @Liberty L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 278 @Delaware W 70-66 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 194 Missouri St. W 72-66 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 167 Florida International W 80-76 65%    
  Wed, Jan 28 278 Delaware W 73-63 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 161 @Kennesaw St. L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Feb 4 215 @Louisiana Tech W 66-65 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 249 @UTEP W 71-68 60%    
  Wed, Feb 11 105 Liberty L 72-73 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 203 @Jacksonville St. W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 249 UTEP W 74-65 79%    
  Thu, Feb 26 147 @Western Kentucky L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 120 @Middle Tennessee L 69-74 33%    
  Thu, Mar 5 203 Jacksonville St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 161 Kennesaw St. W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.4 1.4 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.1 5.8 1.7 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.3 0.2 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.5 5.8 9.1 12.0 14.1 14.6 13.5 10.9 7.3 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 95.5% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-4 79.5% 1.4    1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 52.3% 2.1    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 27.3% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-7 6.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 47.6% 47.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 41.4% 41.4% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.8% 30.4% 30.4% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-5 4.0% 22.5% 22.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.1
14-6 7.3% 20.9% 20.9% 13.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.8
13-7 10.9% 16.3% 16.3% 13.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 9.2
12-8 13.5% 13.7% 13.7% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 11.7
11-9 14.6% 8.0% 8.0% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 13.5
10-10 14.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.3
9-11 12.0% 2.8% 2.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.7
8-12 9.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 8.9
7-13 5.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.7
6-14 3.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.3 90.5 0.0%