New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.1#218
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#286
Pace66.1#267
Improvement-3.3#347

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#239
First Shot-7.5#352
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#7
Layup/Dunks-6.4#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#239
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-1.9#312

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot+2.3#112
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#338
Layups/Dunks+9.2#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#249
Freethrows-5.8#359
Improvement-1.4#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.5% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.0 15.1
.500 or above 5.1% 14.3% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.4% 29.3% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 28.5% 21.1% 29.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 2.5% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 7.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 74 - 16
Quad 45 - 49 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 291   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 53%     1 - 0 +8.2 +2.2 +6.2
  Nov 14, 2024 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 60%     2 - 0 -4.7 +1.4 -6.1
  Nov 20, 2024 46   @ Dayton L 53-74 7%     2 - 1 -7.4 -7.5 -3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 104   @ UNLV L 65-72 16%     2 - 2 +0.4 -0.7 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 258   Pepperdine L 70-82 59%     2 - 3 -17.4 -8.8 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 267   Bowling Green L 60-61 61%     2 - 4 -7.0 -13.1 +6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 178   Abilene Christian L 70-78 53%     2 - 5 -12.0 -0.9 -11.6
  Dec 07, 2024 65   @ New Mexico L 69-84 7%    
  Dec 12, 2024 34   @ Texas L 59-78 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 199   Southern Utah W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 02, 2025 139   Sam Houston St. L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 158   @ UTEP L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 253   @ Florida International L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 70   @ Liberty L 57-71 10%    
  Jan 23, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 174   Jacksonville St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 158   UTEP L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 70   Liberty L 60-68 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 253   Florida International W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 174   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 27, 2025 128   Middle Tennessee L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 73-76 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-73 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 139   @ Sam Houston St. L 69-76 25%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.2 2.9 0.2 13.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.0 7.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 19.9 9th
10th 0.4 2.1 4.2 5.7 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 19.4 10th
Total 0.4 2.1 4.7 8.3 12.0 13.6 14.0 13.3 11.2 8.2 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 60.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 38.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 13.9% 13.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 9.9% 9.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.8% 9.7% 9.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 3.6% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
10-8 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.1
9-9 8.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.9
8-10 11.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.0
7-11 13.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.1
6-12 14.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-14 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-15 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.3
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%