Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#138
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.2#310
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 14.6% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.0 12.7
.500 or above 63.5% 78.4% 53.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.4% 76.1% 60.0%
Conference Champion 13.1% 18.4% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 2.8% 6.8%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round10.8% 14.4% 8.5%
Second Round1.7% 2.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 78 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2025 79   New Mexico L 70-73 40%    
  Nov 21, 2025 166   Samford W 74-69 69%    
  Nov 25, 2025 93   UC Irvine L 65-69 36%    
  Nov 26, 2025 284   Georgia St. W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 02, 2025 163   South Alabama W 63-61 57%    
  Dec 06, 2025 175   @ Abilene Christian L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 13, 2025 149   Tulsa W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 21, 2025 194   Sam Houston St. W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 02, 2026 210   @ Florida International W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 04, 2026 162   @ Missouri St. L 62-63 47%    
  Jan 08, 2026 156   Western Kentucky W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 147   Middle Tennessee W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 15, 2026 97   @ Liberty L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 17, 2026 242   @ Delaware W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 22, 2026 162   Missouri St. W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 24, 2026 210   Florida International W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 28, 2026 242   Delaware W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 31, 2026 142   @ Kennesaw St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 04, 2026 143   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-64 42%    
  Feb 07, 2026 157   @ UTEP L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 11, 2026 97   Liberty L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 14, 2026 153   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 21, 2026 157   UTEP W 69-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2026 156   @ Western Kentucky L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 28, 2026 147   @ Middle Tennessee L 66-68 44%    
  Mar 05, 2026 153   Jacksonville St. W 65-61 64%    
  Mar 07, 2026 142   Kennesaw St. W 73-69 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.1 9.1 9.7 10.0 10.1 9.5 8.5 6.9 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 97.1% 1.9    1.8 0.2
17-3 81.8% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 62.5% 3.3    2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.0% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 14.2% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 62.8% 47.1% 15.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.7%
19-1 0.8% 64.3% 58.4% 5.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 14.1%
18-2 2.0% 48.8% 46.3% 2.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 4.6%
17-3 3.4% 36.2% 35.9% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.6%
16-4 5.3% 28.7% 28.7% 11.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7
15-5 6.9% 25.1% 25.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.2
14-6 8.5% 18.6% 18.6% 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.9
13-7 9.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.3
12-8 10.1% 9.0% 9.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2
11-9 10.0% 5.4% 5.4% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.5
10-10 9.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4
9-11 9.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9
8-12 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.0
7-13 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.0
6-14 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% 21.4 0.0 4.4
5-15 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-16 2.2% 2.2
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.9% 10.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 89.1 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 33.1% 11.0 33.1
Lose Out 0.0%