New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#186
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#259
Pace70.1#121
Improvement-2.2#354

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#152
First Shot+1.4#120
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#244
Layup/Dunks-0.3#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#54
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement-1.6#349

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#227
First Shot-2.0#239
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#133
Layups/Dunks+4.0#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#345
Freethrows-1.7#296
Improvement-0.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 25.1% 51.6%
First Four2.6% 3.1% 2.2%
First Round1.9% 2.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 81 - 9
Quad 34 - 74 - 17
Quad 44 - 28 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 176   @ UTEP L 64-67 37%     0 - 1 -0.5 -4.0 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2022 215   San Diego W 90-77 55%     1 - 1 +10.8 +6.7 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2022 100   UC Irvine L 68-85 30%     1 - 2 -12.3 -1.8 -10.6
  Nov 30, 2022 176   UTEP W 95-70 57%     2 - 2 +22.2 +21.9 -0.9
  Dec 07, 2022 94   @ Santa Clara L 65-66 20%     2 - 3 +7.0 -6.0 +13.0
  Dec 11, 2022 129   @ Duquesne W 73-60 28%     3 - 3 +18.0 +4.3 +14.3
  Dec 14, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 68-81 5%     3 - 4 +4.7 +9.4 -5.2
  Dec 21, 2022 72   Kent St. L 63-73 22%     3 - 5 -2.7 -1.4 -1.6
  Dec 22, 2022 276   N.C. A&T W 85-76 69%     4 - 5 +3.1 +10.0 -6.7
  Dec 28, 2022 114   Southern Utah L 75-79 45%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.2
  Dec 31, 2022 77   Sam Houston St. L 62-75 31%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -8.7 +0.0 -10.2
  Jan 04, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 60-69 29%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -4.2 -5.2 +0.2
  Jan 07, 2023 156   California Baptist L 61-70 54%     4 - 9 0 - 4 -11.1 -4.2 -8.0
  Jan 12, 2023 125   @ Seattle L 66-69 28%     4 - 10 0 - 5 +2.1 -1.9 +4.1
  Jan 14, 2023 272   Texas Arlington L 55-66 77%     4 - 11 0 - 6 -19.5 -21.8 +2.5
  Jan 19, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 76-111 26%     4 - 12 0 - 7 -29.3 +0.6 -28.0
  Jan 21, 2023 212   @ Utah Tech L 76-89 45%     4 - 13 0 - 8 -12.5 -3.7 -7.4
  Jan 28, 2023 99   @ Utah Valley L 72-77 22%     4 - 14 0 - 9 +2.4 -1.3 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 04, 2023 125   Seattle L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 118   @ Grand Canyon L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 11, 2023 156   @ California Baptist L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 15, 2023 229   Abilene Christian W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 18, 2023 287   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-75 79%    
  Feb 22, 2023 118   Grand Canyon L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 01, 2023 229   @ Abilene Christian L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 03, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 7.8 4.4 0.5 16.2 9th
10th 0.0 2.7 9.6 6.0 0.9 0.0 19.2 10th
11th 1.2 9.4 7.9 1.2 0.0 19.8 11th
12th 1.1 8.2 9.1 1.8 0.1 20.3 12th
13th 0.3 2.5 7.3 8.0 2.1 0.1 20.3 13th
Total 0.3 2.5 8.4 17.4 23.5 22.7 15.5 7.4 1.9 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 1.9% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8
7-11 7.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.3 7.1
6-12 15.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 14.8
5-13 22.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.7 22.0
4-14 23.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 23.1
3-15 17.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 17.2
2-16 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.3
1-17 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
0-18 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 7.0% 15.2 5.7 1.3
Lose Out 0.3% 1.3% 16.0 1.3