New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#94
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#49
Pace61.6#337
Improvement-2.0#320

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot-1.7#225
After Offensive Rebound+6.1#3
Layup/Dunks-2.6#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#42
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement-0.7#251

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#126
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#211
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows+0.9#141
Improvement-1.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 37.5% 26.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 3.8% 1.1%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.9
.500 or above 98.6% 99.2% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.1% 95.5%
Conference Champion 43.9% 45.4% 33.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
First Round35.3% 36.6% 26.0%
Second Round8.4% 8.9% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 38 - 311 - 7
Quad 411 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 69   UC Irvine W 62-51 56%     1 - 0 +15.1 -0.7 +16.7
  Nov 13, 2021 159   UTEP W 77-71 78%     2 - 0 +3.5 +5.9 -2.4
  Nov 18, 2021 84   Davidson W 75-64 48%     3 - 0 +17.3 +10.9 +7.5
  Nov 19, 2021 45   Utah St. L 58-85 35%     3 - 1 -17.2 -4.7 -15.2
  Nov 20, 2021 173   Indiana St. W 80-66 72%     4 - 1 +13.6 +9.1 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2021 230   New Mexico W 79-67 87%    
  Dec 03, 2021 159   @ UTEP W 66-64 58%    
  Dec 06, 2021 230   @ New Mexico W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 11, 2021 116   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 15, 2021 58   @ Washington St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 175   @ Seattle W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 82-55 99%    
  Jan 06, 2022 319   @ Lamar W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 08, 2022 282   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 180   Tarleton St. W 66-57 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 146   Abilene Christian W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 20, 2022 222   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 157   @ Stephen F. Austin W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 123   Grand Canyon W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 216   California Baptist W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 175   Seattle W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 10, 2022 307   @ Dixie St. W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 151   @ Utah Valley W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 16, 2022 307   Dixie St. W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 19, 2022 123   @ Grand Canyon L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 79-58 96%    
  Mar 02, 2022 157   Stephen F. Austin W 73-65 76%    
  Mar 05, 2022 151   Utah Valley W 71-63 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.8 7.0 12.3 12.3 7.8 2.5 43.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.1 7.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.1 1.6 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.9 11.3 14.3 16.7 16.3 13.0 7.8 2.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 99.8% 7.8    7.6 0.2
16-2 94.8% 12.3    10.5 1.8 0.0
15-3 75.8% 12.3    7.7 4.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 42.1% 7.0    2.5 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.4% 1.8    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.9% 43.9 30.9 10.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 81.5% 65.1% 16.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 47.0%
17-1 7.8% 69.1% 58.7% 10.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 25.2%
16-2 13.0% 55.3% 49.9% 5.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 10.8%
15-3 16.3% 47.4% 46.0% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.6 2.8 0.5 0.1 8.6 2.6%
14-4 16.7% 36.5% 36.1% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 10.6 0.5%
13-5 14.3% 27.5% 27.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.4 0.1%
12-6 11.3% 18.3% 18.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.2
11-7 7.9% 13.3% 13.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.9
10-8 5.0% 8.5% 8.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.6
9-9 2.9% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
8-10 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.1% 33.9% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.4 4.1 11.9 10.5 4.6 1.0 0.1 63.9 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.4 1.2 4.9 17.8 31.9 27.6 9.2 6.1 0.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 85.0% 8.6 2.5 5.0 5.0 12.5 40.0 15.0 2.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 77.3% 8.0 9.1 13.6 4.5 45.5 4.5