New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.0 157
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 215
Pace 66.0 251
Improvement -4.3 334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 133 C- C B C- D
Defense C- 219 B- D D+ F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 316 C 57% 187 -3.1 288
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 75 C 38% 164 +2.7 52
Three Pointers 39% 220 C 34% 167 -0.8 208
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 325 C +0.0 171
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 209
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 122 D+ 0.96 284 C 0.31 173
Turnovers B 14.9% 66
Freethrows C- 0.29 242 C 73% 174 C- 0.21 218
Total Offense C+ +1.4 133

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 116 B- 9.5% 95
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 230 B- 4.0% 104
Three Pointers D 77% 312 C+ 0.7% 123
Total C- 53% 247 B 4.5% 61

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 C 58% 178 -2.8 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 124 B+ 33% 22 -0.6 140
Three Pointers 44% 83 B- 32% 101 +0.5 209
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 90 B- -2.3 92
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 87
Second Chance C- 31.2% 215 D- 1.16 342 D 0.36 305
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 288
Freethrows D- 0.37 339 F+ 76% 352 F+ 0.28 354
Total Defense C- -1.4 219

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 127 C+ 12.0% 127
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 12% 3 C 5.0% 166
Three Pointers C- 86% 227 C 1.0% 135
Total C+ 54% 139 C 5.6% 178

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 212 17.7 258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 108 0.19 252
Improvement -1.4 #260 -2.9 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 196 161 131
Conference Record 6 - 14 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 12 9 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 14% 18% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 9% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 19% 11% 41%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round5% 5% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 10
Quad 47 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 45 New Mexico W 76 - 68 21% +2  70% 1 - 0 A- +17 A- +10 C- A A+ A- +7 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 187 Samford W 81 - 72 68% +10  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A +12 A- A A- D- -7 A- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 116 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 38% +5  93% 3 - 0 A- +15 F -11 F B F A+ +26 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 26 283 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 75% +9  73% 4 - 0 B+ +12 D+ -4 D+ D A A+ +15 B+ A- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 188 South Alabama L 75 - 77 57% +1  59% 4 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 C- C- D D- -7 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 243 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 55% -5  13% 4 - 2 D -9 B- +4 D D+ A- F -14 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 77 Tulsa L 70 - 83 24% -13  1% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 F+ D+ C C -0 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 114 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 49% +13  96% 5 - 3 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 A D+ A+ B- +3 A B- C-
 Fri, Jan 2 185 @Florida International L 74 - 89 44% -11  8% 5 - 4 1 - 1 D- -14 C- -1 A- F C- F -12 D F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 202 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 48% -8  1% 5 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -6 B +5 B- C C+ F -12 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 168 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 63% +16  99% 6 - 5 2 - 2 B+ +12 B+ +9 D+ A B- B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 171 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 64% -0  43% 6 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -8 F -18 F F D+ A +10 A+ A- D
 Thu, Jan 15 100 @Liberty L 71 - 73 22% -6  7% 6 - 7 2 - 4 B- +6 A- +11 B- B- A+ D -5 D+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 263 @Delaware W 97 - 68 60% +14  98% 7 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +26 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ C- -3 B- D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 202 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 70% -5  28% 7 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C+ +3 F B A+ F -18 F A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 185 Florida International L 78 - 81 67% -4  21% 7 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -8 D -5 F D C+ C- -2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 263 Delaware L 64 - 73 79% -5  15% 7 - 10 3 - 7 F+ -18 D -5 B- F+ D F -14 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Kennesaw St. L 53 - 76 39% -15  17% 7 - 11 3 - 8 F -20 F -20 F F D C -1 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 218 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 63 51% +2  76% 8 - 11 4 - 8 B +9 B +7 A+ D D+ B- +2 C D+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 246 @UTEP L 88 - 91 OT 56% +5  77% 8 - 12 4 - 9 C- -5 C +1 C- D+ A+ D -5 B+ F C
 Wed, Feb 11 100 Liberty L 75 - 77 42% -1  28% 8 - 13 4 - 10 C +0 C +1 C B B+ C -1 A+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 200 @Jacksonville St. W 79 - 70 47% +5  86% 9 - 13 5 - 10 B +10 A- +10 D+ A A C -0 A+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 246 UTEP W 74 - 66 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 168 @Western Kentucky L 74 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 73 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 200 Jacksonville St. W 72 - 67 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 165 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 78 62%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 +0 C+ +1 F C D C- -1 C C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C C C 33% 47% 39% D C- C+ D+ C B C- C C- C- C B+ B- B- 34% 22% 44% B- B- C- D- D D+ D- F+ F+
1.11 57% 38% 34% 0 -1 1.00 32% 1.0 .31 15% .29 73% .21 1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.2 .36 15% .37 76% .22
Nov
15		 New Mexico A- A+ D- F C 17% 25% 58% D C- B A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A- C- A A+ A+ 31% 15% 54% B+ A+ B- F D A C- F D
1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35 1.03 60% 29% 27% -6 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27
Nov
21		 Samford A A- C+ A+ A 36% 34% 30% D+ A- B A A A- C C C D- D+ D+ A+ A- 27% 20% 53% B- A- D+ F F F C F D+
1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21 1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 UC Irvine F C A- F F+ 29% 37% 34% F F A- C B F A+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 34% 39% A A+ A+ F+ A A+ F B- F
0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39 0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37
Nov
26		 Georgia St. D+ D- F+ A+ D+ 38% 29% 33% F+ D+ B F D A F C F+ A+ D A+ A A- 27% 22% 51% D B+ C+ A+ A- C+ A+ B A+
1.04 50% 29% 42% -2 -1 0.97 39% 0.7 .26 12% .21 71% .15 0.78 60% 8% 25% -13 -1 0.75 26% 0.7 .19 18% .20 75% .15
Dec
2		 South Alabama C+ C+ A+ F C 20% 19% 61% D- C- A+ F C- D C+ B- B- D- B+ A+ C- B+ 49% 22% 29% C B+ B+ F F+ D F F F
1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19 1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54
Dec
6		 Abilene Christian B- F B B+ D 41% 19% 41% C- D A+ F D+ A- A+ B+ A+ F C+ F F F 36% 26% 38% C+ F F D- F C F F F
1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53 1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38
Dec
13		 Tulsa D F F+ C- F 43% 22% 35% C F+ D C D+ C A+ D A+ C C B+ F D- 29% 7% 63% B D C F F A+ F D F
1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31 1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54
Dec
21		 Sam Houston St. B C A+ B A 41% 23% 36% C A F A D+ A+ F B- F B- A+ F C+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D+ A D+ A- B- C- F B- F
1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12 1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29
Jan
2		 Florida International C- B- A+ B+ A 31% 18% 51% D+ A- F C- F C- F D- F F F A+ F F+ 40% 25% 35% B+ D F F F C+ F D- F
1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14 1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33
Jan
4		 Missouri St. B A+ F+ A+ B 25% 45% 29% F+ B- A- F C C+ B- A A- F F A+ F F+ 22% 39% 39% A+ D F F F C+ F F F
1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32 1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50
Jan
8		 Western Kentucky B+ F C- A+ C- 28% 28% 43% D D+ A+ C+ A B- A+ A- A+ B A+ C- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A- A+ D F F F F+ C D-
1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47 0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28
Jan
10		 Middle Tennessee F D+ C F F+ 27% 23% 50% D- F D- F F D+ A F C A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C- A+ A+ D A- D F B F
0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24 0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27
Jan
15		 Liberty A- B- D+ A+ A- 19% 37% 44% F B- C+ B- B- A+ F F F D D+ B F D 52% 14% 34% B- D+ C- A B- D- F F F
1.22 60% 37% 43% +6 -3 1.08 33% 1.3 .42 12% .08 50% .04 1.25 65% 33% 47% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 10% .34 78% .27
Jan
17		 Delaware A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D C- A+ A+ F B 39% 17% 43% D+ B- C+ F D- F F B D-
1.57 80% 41% 46% +14 -2 1.27 33% 2.0 .67 6% .19 100% .19 1.10 44% 25% 45% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 10% .32 72% .23
Jan
22		 Missouri St. C+ B D- F F 19% 41% 41% F+ F D+ A+ B A+ D+ C+ C- F F F F+ F 32% 27% 41% C F F A+ A- C- F F F
1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25 1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41
Jan
24		 Florida International D F F C+ F+ 30% 28% 43% F F A- F D C+ A+ D- A C- C- F A+ C+ 39% 19% 42% C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F F C F+
1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30 1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27
Jan
28		 Delaware D D+ B+ A- B+ 18% 32% 50% F B- B F F+ D F D- F F F F F F 34% 23% 43% B- F C+ A+ A- D+ D- F F
1.07 56% 44% 40% +6 -3 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 17% .16 75% .12 1.22 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.32 19% 0.5 .10 17% .30 100% .30
Jan
31		 Kennesaw St. F F C- F F 26% 41% 33% F F D+ F F D A+ B- A+ C F A A- C 33% 19% 49% B+ C+ C+ F F F F C F
0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49 1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42
Feb
4		 Louisiana Tech B B- A+ A+ A+ 42% 22% 36% C- A+ B- F D D+ D+ D- D B- F+ A+ D C 31% 24% 44% B+ C F A- D+ B- F A F
1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19 0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28
Feb
7		 UTEP C D- D- A+ C- 38% 29% 33% D+ C- D C- D+ A+ D F F D C- A+ B B+ 23% 26% 51% C B+ F F F C F C F
1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20 1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
11		 Liberty C A C+ F C 34% 21% 45% C- C C- A+ B B+ F A+ D- C A- F A- A+ 42% 7% 51% C+ A+ F+ F F D- A+ F B+
1.11 68% 42% 28% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.5 .45 15% .12 100% .12 1.14 52% 75% 30% -3 +2 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 10% .15 89% .13
Feb
14		 Jacksonville St. A- C F D+ D 42% 9% 49% B+ D+ C A+ A A A+ A- A+ C A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ A- F D- F B+ C- B
1.20 58% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.6 .44 12% .54 84% .45 1.06 40% 22% 29% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.6 .37 5% .30 68% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 1.9 3rd
4th 0.8 3.0 3.8 4th
5th 4.6 1.4 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 8.9 0.3 9.3 6th
7th 3.1 7.2 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.3 13.0 2.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 5.2 14.6 0.1 19.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 11.3 2.9 15.4 10th
11th 0.3 4.8 7.3 0.1 12.5 11th
12th 1.2 3.2 1.0 5.4 12th
Total 1.4 9.3 25.1 33.9 23.7 6.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 6.6% 10.0% 10.0% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.9
9-11 23.7% 7.1% 7.1% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.0 22.0
8-12 33.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 32.2
7-13 25.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.1 0.9 24.2
6-14 9.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.0
5-15 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.9 94.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.2 11.2 61.4 26.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.8%