New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#127
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#134
Pace64.8#305
Improvement-1.4#276

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#138
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#100
Layup/Dunks-2.5#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#298
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement-0.9#244

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#130
First Shot+0.7#145
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#147
Layups/Dunks+4.7#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#256
Freethrows-3.2#343
Improvement-0.6#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 17.1% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 87.8% 94.1% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 93.5% 79.1%
Conference Champion 23.0% 31.0% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round14.7% 17.1% 12.1%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 69 - 9
Quad 49 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 66 New Mexico W 76-68 38%     1 - 0 +13.2 +11.2 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 21 227 Samford W 81-72 81%     2 - 0 +2.0 +13.8 -10.7
  Tue, Nov 25 131 UC Irvine W 57-45 51%     3 - 0 +13.8 -10.6 +24.4
  Wed, Nov 26 330 Georgia St. W 77-58 87%     4 - 0 +8.9 -3.2 +11.0
  Tue, Dec 2 190 South Alabama L 75-77 66%     4 - 1 -3.9 +6.2 -10.2
  Sat, Dec 6 204 @Abilene Christian L 69-77 58%     4 - 2 -7.8 +6.0 -14.7
  Sat, Dec 13 92 Tulsa L 70-83 35%     4 - 3 -6.9 -2.9 -4.0
  Sun, Dec 21 122 Sam Houston St. W 87-78 61%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +8.4 +7.8 +0.1
  Fri, Jan 2 182 @Florida International W 75-74 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 254 @Missouri St. W 68-64 66%    
  Thu, Jan 8 145 Western Kentucky W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 158 Middle Tennessee W 73-68 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 102 @Liberty L 66-72 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Delaware W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Jan 22 254 Missouri St. W 71-61 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 182 Florida International W 78-71 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 284 Delaware W 74-62 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 152 @Kennesaw St. L 76-77 45%    
  Wed, Feb 4 187 @Louisiana Tech W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 202 @UTEP W 68-66 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 102 Liberty W 70-69 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 236 @Jacksonville St. W 68-64 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 202 UTEP W 71-63 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 145 @Western Kentucky L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 158 @Middle Tennessee L 70-71 46%    
  Thu, Mar 5 236 Jacksonville St. W 71-61 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 152 Kennesaw St. W 79-74 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.3 6.2 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 23.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.1 6.5 5.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.5 10.4 12.9 13.9 12.9 11.2 8.2 5.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.8% 2.5    2.4 0.1
17-3 92.0% 4.6    3.8 0.8 0.0
16-4 75.3% 6.2    4.2 1.8 0.2
15-5 47.7% 5.3    2.7 2.0 0.6 0.0
14-6 20.0% 2.6    0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.0% 23.0 15.0 5.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 53.2% 48.9% 4.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3%
19-1 0.9% 42.2% 42.2% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.6% 36.7% 36.7% 12.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6
17-3 5.0% 31.8% 31.8% 12.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 3.4
16-4 8.2% 26.8% 26.8% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.0
15-5 11.2% 23.3% 23.3% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.6
14-6 12.9% 18.4% 18.4% 13.2 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 10.5
13-7 13.9% 14.6% 14.6% 13.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 11.9
12-8 12.9% 8.9% 8.9% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.7
11-9 10.4% 6.7% 6.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.7
10-10 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.1
9-11 6.0% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-12 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-13 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.1 4.3 4.3 17.4 13.0 60.9