Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#149
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#210
Pace64.8#287
Improvement-1.0#257

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#150
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#201
Layup/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#13
Freethrows-1.4#265
Improvement+2.5#18

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#147
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#308
Layups/Dunks+0.3#183
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
Freethrows+1.2#116
Improvement-3.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 26.0% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 84.5% 90.7% 73.3%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 92.7% 87.4%
Conference Champion 30.6% 33.9% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four2.2% 1.9% 2.8%
First Round23.1% 25.1% 19.4%
Second Round1.9% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 53   @ Wichita St. L 57-60 17%     0 - 1 +8.4 -0.2 +8.2
  Nov 13, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 70-47 94%     1 - 1 +7.0 -3.7 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2021 240   @ Troy L 65-69 3OT 59%     1 - 2 -5.1 -20.7 +16.5
  Nov 22, 2021 204   Valparaiso L 70-78 62%     1 - 3 -9.9 -2.4 -7.5
  Nov 24, 2021 169   Drexel W 72-64 56%     2 - 3 +7.8 +2.2 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2021 273   @ Elon W 93-81 67%     3 - 3 +8.8 +16.9 -8.2
  Dec 04, 2021 157   South Alabama W 70-66 64%    
  Dec 08, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-65 21%    
  Dec 15, 2021 226   Florida International W 69-62 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 66-83 6%    
  Dec 21, 2021 289   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 04, 2022 177   Bellarmine W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 08, 2022 308   @ North Alabama W 72-66 72%    
  Jan 11, 2022 222   Lipscomb W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 18, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-70 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 278   @ Kennesaw St. W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 171   @ Liberty L 62-63 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 288   North Florida W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 257   Jacksonville W 68-58 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 268   @ Stetson W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 80-63 94%    
  Feb 16, 2022 222   @ Lipscomb W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 23, 2022 160   Eastern Kentucky W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 308   North Alabama W 75-63 86%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 6.4 9.6 8.0 4.0 0.9 30.6 1st
2nd 1.4 5.9 7.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.9 1.9 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 6.1 2.1 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.6 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.8 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.2 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.3 3.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.6 7.5 10.3 14.3 16.6 15.8 12.8 8.6 4.1 0.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 99.5% 4.0    3.8 0.2
14-2 93.4% 8.0    6.7 1.3
13-3 74.7% 9.6    5.7 3.4 0.4
12-4 40.4% 6.4    1.9 2.9 1.4 0.2
11-5 9.9% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 30.6% 30.6 19.2 8.3 2.5 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 63.3% 63.1% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.6%
15-1 4.1% 48.3% 48.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 2.1
14-2 8.6% 39.5% 39.5% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.0 5.2
13-3 12.8% 35.4% 35.4% 14.5 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.0 0.4 8.3
12-4 15.8% 27.8% 27.8% 14.9 0.2 1.0 2.4 0.8 11.4
11-5 16.6% 23.5% 23.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.5 12.7
10-6 14.3% 17.4% 17.4% 15.5 0.2 0.9 1.3 11.8
9-7 10.3% 14.9% 14.9% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 8.8
8-8 7.5% 8.4% 8.4% 15.9 0.1 0.6 6.9
7-9 4.6% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.2
6-10 2.7% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.2 2.5
5-11 1.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 5.5 9.1 6.3 76.0 0.0%