Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #195
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 #217
Pace 63.1 #325
Improvement +4.7 #21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #238 C- C- C- B- A-
Defense #157 C C C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.04 #316 +2.8 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #324 0.64 #336 -3.6 #339
Three Pointers 39% #229 1.06 #117 -0.4 #194
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #211 -1.2 #212
Freethrows 0.37 #27 68% #303 0.25 #78
Second Chance 29.5% #213 0.97 #250 0.29 #238
Turnovers 18.0% #246
Total Offense -2.4 #238

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.09 #92 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #281 0.80 #255 +0.9 #120
Three Pointers 44% #97 1.02 #186 -1.5 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #165 +0.5 #163
Freethrows 0.32 #225 77% #354 0.25 #289
Second Chance 29.5% #130 1.03 #195 0.30 #157
Turnovers 16.5% #212
Total Defense +0.1 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #15 0.9% #248
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.6% #279 -1.8% #144
Possession Length 18.4 #298 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.16 #131
Improvement +3.4 #32 +1.3 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.2% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 23.6% 41.1% 15.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.6% 90.1% 65.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round3.8% 5.1% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 31.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 85 - 11
Quad 48 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 241 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 70% +7  1 - 0 -1 +3 D+ A- C+ -3 A+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 201 South Alabama L 65 - 71 63% +6  1 - 1 -12 -5 C- D- C- -7 D+ C D-
 Mon, Nov 24 170 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 33% -7  1 - 2 -9 -12 F F+ F +4 C+ A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 140 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 36% -10  1 - 3 -12 -25 F D- F +11 C+ A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 1 333 North Alabama L 66 - 73 86% +2  1 - 4 -21 -10 F C+ C+ -11 C D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 272 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 54% -5  1 - 5 -7 +5 D- B A+ -12 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 266 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 74% -5  1 - 6 -12 -15 F F C- +3 B+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 20 132 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 25% +1  2 - 6 +11 +21 A+ C+ C+ -9 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 158 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 54% +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +7 A+ F+ F +1 A- B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 283 @Delaware W 67 - 64 57% +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -1 +4 C B- F+ -5 D A- F
 Sun, Jan 4 92 @Liberty L 69 - 78 15% -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -0 +4 D- C+ A -5 A+ F+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 180 Florida International W 71 - 64 59% +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +3 +2 A- B+ F+ +1 C+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 145 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 27% -5  5 - 8 3 - 2 -2 +8 A+ C- C- -10 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 114 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 40% -7  5 - 9 3 - 3 -15 -3 D+ D+ B+ -13 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 227 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 67% +10  6 - 9 4 - 3 -3 +3 C+ C- D+ -5 C F+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 168 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 55% +9  7 - 9 5 - 3 +14 +13 A+ F+ C+ +3 A C D-
 Wed, Jan 28 180 @Florida International W 78 - 74 36% -4  8 - 9 6 - 3 +6 -3 C+ F C+ +8 C+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 182 @Missouri St. L 67 - 74 36% -7  8 - 10 6 - 4 -6 -3 F+ A- F -2 C- D- C-
 Thu, Feb 5 158 @Western Kentucky L 68 - 73 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 145 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 75 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 251 UTEP W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 161 New Mexico St. W 69 - 68 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 227 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 64 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 76 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 283 Delaware W 69 - 61 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 92 Liberty L 67 - 72 30%
 Thu, Mar 5 161 @New Mexico St. L 66 - 71 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 251 @UTEP L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 13 - 15 11 - 9 -2 -2 C- C- C- +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 4.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 4.2 8.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 3.0 10.4 5.1 0.4 19.0 4th
5th 0.8 9.1 5.2 0.4 15.4 5th
6th 0.3 4.8 9.0 1.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 6.8 1.9 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 3.4 3.3 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.7 2.8 0.4 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.4 2.1 7.9 16.1 23.1 21.0 16.3 8.7 3.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 71.4% 0.1    0.1
15-5 11.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-6 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-6 3.6% 9.3% 9.3% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.2
13-7 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 8.0
12-8 16.3% 7.3% 7.3% 14.8 0.3 0.9 0.1 15.1
11-9 21.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 20.1
10-10 23.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.2 0.2 22.8
9-11 16.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 15.8
8-12 7.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.8
7-13 2.1% 2.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.9 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%