Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#237
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#319
Pace63.1#332
Improvement+0.3#149

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#273
First Shot-5.1#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#99
Layup/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+1.5#81

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot-2.9#276
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#35
Layups/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#221
Freethrows-4.4#356
Improvement-1.1#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.3% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 7.5% 13.0% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 35.2% 14.8%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 12.4% 27.7%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 2.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 34 - 94 - 12
Quad 46 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 250 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 63%     1 - 0 -1.0 +3.6 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 19 191 South Alabama L 65-71 52%     1 - 1 -11.0 -5.7 -5.7
  Mon, Nov 24 133 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 19%     1 - 2 -6.3 -11.6 +5.8
  Wed, Nov 26 149 North Dakota St. L 43-56 30%     1 - 3 -12.0 -23.9 +10.2
  Mon, Dec 1 246 North Alabama L 66-73 63%     1 - 4 -14.9 -6.2 -9.1
  Sat, Dec 13 330 @Georgia St. L 73-77 60%     1 - 5 -11.1 +3.3 -14.6
  Wed, Dec 17 260 Eastern Kentucky L 59-62 65%     1 - 6 -11.4 -12.8 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 20 140 @East Tennessee St. W 81-75 20%     2 - 6 +10.3 +19.7 -8.6
  Mon, Dec 29 144 Western Kentucky L 71-74 40%    
  Fri, Jan 2 286 @Delaware L 66-67 47%    
  Sun, Jan 4 101 @Liberty L 61-73 13%    
  Wed, Jan 7 182 Florida International W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 154 @Kennesaw St. L 70-78 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 121 Sam Houston St. L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 188 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 Middle Tennessee L 67-69 44%    
  Wed, Jan 28 182 @Florida International L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 264 @Missouri St. L 63-65 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 144 @Western Kentucky L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 Kennesaw St. L 73-75 43%    
  Wed, Feb 11 218 UTEP W 66-64 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 125 New Mexico St. L 65-69 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 188 @Louisiana Tech L 59-65 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 121 @Sam Houston St. L 68-78 19%    
  Thu, Feb 26 286 Delaware W 69-64 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 101 Liberty L 64-70 28%    
  Thu, Mar 5 125 @New Mexico St. L 62-72 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 218 @UTEP L 63-67 37%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 2.1 0.2 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 14.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 15.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.8 3.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 14.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.1 8.2 10.2 12.6 13.6 12.5 11.0 8.5 6.0 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 95.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 80.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 49.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 20.8% 20.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 16.0% 16.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 16.4% 16.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.3% 13.4% 13.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.3% 8.6% 8.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1
12-8 3.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.7
11-9 6.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.8
10-10 8.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.3
9-11 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.8
8-12 12.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.4
7-13 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.5
6-14 12.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-15 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-16 8.2% 8.2
3-17 5.1% 5.1
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%